Comprehensive Particulate Matter Modeling: AO ne Atmosphere Approach - PowerPoint

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					  CMAQ Diagnostics for
 Initial 2002 Annual Run
   Ralph Morris (Environ), Gail Tonnesen (UCR)
Tom Teshe and Dennis McNally (Alpine Geophysics)

                      Jim Boylan
         Georgia Department of Natural Resources

VISTAS Planning and Technical Analysis Workgroup Meeting
                    Atlanta, Georgia
                    November 4, 2004
               Outline
• Winter Nitrate Over Prediction
  – Gail Tonnesen (UCR)
• Wet and Dry Deposition in CMAQ and
  CAMx
  – Tom Tesche and Dennis McNally (Alpine)
• Summer Organic Carbon Under
  Prediction
  – Ralph Morris and Bonyoung Koo (Environ)
Winter Nitrate Over
    Prediction
    Nitrate Diagnostic Tests
• Tested on January 2002
• v43 – CMAQ version 4.3
• v44beta – CMAQ version 4.4 beta
• 0.4NH3emis – 60% NH3 emissions reductions
• 0.5gamma – reduce N2O5 reaction probability
  by 50%
• 2HNO3_NO3_Vd – double HNO3 and NO3 dry
  deposition velocity
• 2NH3_Vd – double NH3 dry deposition
  velocity
                    Nitrate Fractional Bias (%)
                                              NO3
                  140%
                                                                              v43
                  120%
                                                                              v44beta
                  100%
                                                                              0.4NH3emis
                  80%
Fractional Bias




                                                                              0.5Gamma
                  60%

                  40%                                                         2HNO3_NO3_Vd


                  20%                                                         2NH3_Vd

                   0%

                  -20%

                  -40%

                  -60%
                         IMPROVE   STN   SEARCH   SEARCH_H   CASTNET   NADP
                          Nitrate Fractional Error (%)
                                                    NO3
                         140%
                                                                                     v43

                         120%                                                        v44beta
Fractional Gross Error




                         100%                                                        0.4NH3emis

                                                                                     0.5Gamma
                         80%
                                                                                     2HNO3_NO3_Vd

                         60%                                                         2NH3_Vd


                         40%


                         20%


                          0%
                                IMPROVE   STN   SEARCH   SEARCH_H   CASTNET   NADP
Ammonium Fractional Bias (%)
                                               NH4
                  100%
                                                                               v43

                  80%                                                          v44beta


                  60%                                                          0.4NH3emis
Fractional Bias




                                                                               0.5Gamma
                  40%
                                                                               2HNO3_NO3_Vd

                  20%                                                          2NH3_Vd


                   0%


                  -20%


                  -40%
                         IMPROVE*   STN   SEARCH   SEARCH_H   CASTNET   NADP
Ammonium Fractional Error (%)
                                                     NH4
                         120%
                                                                                     v43

                         100%                                                        v44beta
Fractional Gross Error




                                                                                     0.4NH3emis
                         80%
                                                                                     0.5Gamma

                                                                                     2HNO3_NO3_Vd
                         60%
                                                                                     2NH3_Vd

                         40%


                         20%


                          0%
                                IMPROVE   STN   SEARCH   SEARCH_H   CASTNET   NADP
                          TNO3 Fractional Bias (%)
                                 HNO3(g)                                                        Total NO3

                   80%                                                          80
                                               v43                                                           v43
                   60%                                                          70
                                               v44beta                                                       v44beta
                   40%
                                               0.4NH3emis                       60                           0.4NH3emis

                   20%
                                               0.5Gamma
Fractional Bias




                                                              Fractional Bias
                                                                                50                           0.5Gamma

                    0%                         2HNO3_NO3_Vd                                                  2HNO3_NO3_Vd
                                                                                40
                  -20%                         2NH3_Vd                                                       2NH3_Vd
                                                                                30
                  -40%

                                                                                20
                  -60%


                  -80%                                                          10


                  -100%                                                         0
                          SEARCH_H   CASTNET                                         SEARCH_H      CASTNET
                                TNO3 Fractional Error (%)
                                           HNO3(g)                                                           Total NO3

                         120%                                                                  100%
                                                       v43                                                                 v43
                                                                                               90%
                         100%                          v44beta                                                             v44beta
                                                                                               80%
                                                       0.4NH3emis                                                          0.4NH3emis
Fractional Gross Error




                                                                      Fractional Gross Error
                                                                                               70%
                         80%
                                                       0.5Gamma                                                            0.5Gamma
                                                                                               60%
                                                       2HNO3_NO3_Vd                                                        2HNO3_NO3_Vd
                         60%                                                                   50%
                                                       2NH3_Vd                                                             2NH3_Vd
                                                                                               40%
                         40%
                                                                                               30%

                                                                                               20%
                         20%
                                                                                               10%

                          0%                                                                    0%
                                SEARCH_H     CASTNET                                                  SEARCH_H   CASTNET
Wet and Dry Deposition in
   CMAQ and CAMx
       Deposition Evaluations
• Spatial Mean Comparisons
• Spatial mean is average at each hour of the
  modeled specie at all IMPROVE monitors in
  the 12 km VISTAS region
• Wet and Dry Deposition
• Species Examined
  – CM, EC, OC, NH4, NO3, SO4
                                         Annual Fractional Bias: 12 km VISTAS Domain
                                          CMAQ/CAMx Inter-Comparisons
                            140.0

                            120.0
                                          CMAQ
                            100.0         CAMx
Annual Fractional Bias, %




                             80.0

                             60.0

                             40.0

                             20.0

                              0.0




                                                                                  L
                                         2




                                                          3

                                                                 d
                                    O3




                                                                            EC
                                              SO2

                                                    SO4




                                                                       OC




                                                                                       CM

                                                                                             2.5



                                                                                                         10
                                                                                                   FM
                                         NO




                                                          NO

                                                                  4-




                                                                                 SOI
                            -20.0




                                                                                                        PM
                                                                                            PM
                                                               NH




                                                                                                   RC
                            -40.0

                            -60.0

                            -80.0
         NH4 Dry Deposition
CMAQ-Jan ’02        CAMx-Jan ’02




CMAQ-Jul ’02        CAMx-Jul ‘02
         Deposition Summary
• Dry Deposition
  – For most species CMAQ gives greater dry deposition
    totals than CAMx, by factors of 2 to 5.
  – For CM, CAMx dry dep exceeds CMAQ’s by nearly a
    factor of 3.


• Wet Deposition
  – CMAQ wet deposition exceed’s that of CAMx by
    factors of 2 to 5 for most species.
  – SO4 wet deposition rates are about the same for both
    models.
  – For OC in July, CAMx wet dep exceeds CMAQ’s by
    about a factor of 2.
Summer Organic Carbon
   Under Prediction
  Organic Carbon Diagnostics
• July 2002 period with CMAQ V4.4beta
• OCM has 3 major components in CMAQ:
  – Primary Organic Carbon (POC)
  – Secondary Organic Aerosol from Anthropogenic VOC
    (SOA_A)
  – Secondary Organic Aerosol from Biogenic VOC (SOA_B)
• Sensitivity to key SOA parameters: (1)
  CG/SOA Yields; (2) Saturation Concentrations
  (Cstar); and (3) Heat of Vaporization (Hvap).
• Sensitivity to assuming 50% of “other” PM2.5
  is OCM.
       July 1-7, 2002: Stacked Time Series
CMAQ   of Components of TCM @ YRK:
       EC, POC, SOA_A and SOA_B
        CMAQ SOA_A lower than
       CAMx
        CMAQ SOA_B goes to zero @
       ~ noon-6pm, CAMx mins > 0.0
        CMAQ too much diurnal
CAMx   variation driven primarily by
       SOA_B
CMAQ w/ CMAQ Cstar+Y   Cstar + Yields Sens Test
                       CMAQ July 1-7, 2002
                       Top: CMAQ Cstar+Yields
                       Bottom: CMU Cstar+Yields
                       Improves CMAQ TCM
                       performance bias/error from
                       -35%/65% to –1%/33% using
CMAQ w/ CMU Cstar+Y    CMU SOA_B
Bias/Error at SEARCH Hourly
          Monitors
Site     CMAQ        CMU
YRK    -35%/65%    -1%/33%
PNS    -88%/90%   -45%/55%
BHM    -46%/59%   -16%/36%
CTR    -32%/67%   +4%/44%
OAK    -64%/94%   -19%/63%
JST    -56%/69%   -33%/45%
GFP    -76%/78%   -37%/45%
Bias/Error Assuming 50% of
    “Other” PM2.5 is OC
  Bias/Error for Organics
  Jul02 IMP         -83%/89%    -54%/63%
  Jul02 SEA         -78%/79%    -51%/54%
  Jan02 IMP         35%/45%     41%/54%
  Jan02 SEA         -25%/52%     9%/40%

  Bias/Error for Soils
  Jul02 IMP          8%/77%     -46%/85%
  Jul02 SEA          76%/96%    22%/70%
  Jan02 IMP         153%/153%   120%/124%
  Jan02 SEA         164%/165%   137%/139%
   Preliminary OC Summary
• Significant improvements in CMAQ OC
  performance using CMU/CMAQ Cstar and
  Yields
• Mixed improvements in CMAQ OC and SOIL
  performance assuming 50% “other” PM2.5 is OC
  – generally improved MPE
• OC underestimation likely due to understated
  primary OC emissions and SOA amounts;
  however, use of CMU values are questionable.
  – CMAQ Cstar based on CalTech smog chamber data,
    CMU Cstar based on earlier reference
     • However, CalTech smog chamber studies have artifacts
  – Error in units of CMU Cstar (redo simulations)

				
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posted:9/18/2012
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