Your Federal Quarterly Tax Payments are due April 15th Get Help Now >>

PowerPoint Presentation by n09C7b

VIEWS: 4 PAGES: 32

									THE POLITICIANS
 LINDSAY B. BRADFISH
 LAURA K. GRAVES
 JILL H. KLOSTERMAN
 JEANNE M. LOUTHER
 TODD J. WILSON




A multivariable study of Presidential cueing, public
approval and the cross-generational trends in the
media.
November 3, 1969
Nixon pleads with the nation,
asking the “silent majority”
to support his Vietnam policy
“And so tonight,
To you, the great
silent majority
of my fellow
Americans—


I ask for your support.”
In the wake of 9/11,
President George W. Bush
called Americans to unite
against the “axis of evil”
during his State of the Union
address.


January 2002
“States like these and
their terrorist allies
constitute an axis of
evil, arming to
threaten the peace of
the world.”


Bush, January 2002
Why Bush and Nixon?
• Both elected two
terms
• Both led nation
during controversial
foreign wars
• Both experienced
turbulent trends of high
and low approval
Polling Question
• Do you approve or disapprove of
the way [Richard Nixon, George W.
Bush] is handling his job as
president? —Gallup


* Poll wording did not change
between the two time periods
Media     Cues, specifically
effect    presidential cues
          Discover the role of cues as
Purpose   heuristic devices that
          influence public expressions
          of presidential approval.


          What the average person
          knows about the world comes
Why?      from the deconstruction and
          interpretation of cues, such as
          those popularized by
          presidents.
   Concept definitions
Heuristic   Mental shortcuts used to hasten
            the speed with which judgments
            are formed about complex issues;
            useful when looking at complex
            policy issues related to the
            government.

Source      A heuristic given by an elite
            source
Cue         * The force of this heuristic
            depends on the strength of the
            figure making the claim.
Theory
Presidential
source cues,
reproduced in
the media, affect
expressions of
public opinion.
Past research: Mondak
• Cues are most effective when used to express
issues far removed from daily life or when
individuals do not have a complete understanding
of the specific issue (Mondak).




Axis of Evil (Jan. 2002) - New members (May 2002)
Past research: Edelman
• Cues work by creating images that “objectify
our hopes and fears, moral stances,
enthusiasms and revulsions, and in turn focus
our attention and affect opinion.”
• The emotional power of these created images
is crucial to understanding the willingness of
the public to accept the message.
  •More emotional = more likely to channel
  ideas into political action
We predicted:
• Correlation between the use of
these cues and increases in
presidential approval ratings.


• Correlation between elite cue
attribution and public opinion
effects.
Our predictions recognize that
correlation doesn’t equal
causation.
We expected:
• consistent use of
presidential cues in
the media across
Nixon and Bush time
periods

• Decreased presence
of cues in media after
about one month
But do the media and public
adopt presidential cues?

     Well, we started with some evidence—
Methodology
Unit of Obs. and Analysis

• New York Times and
Washington Post Section A
omitting letters to
editor/editorials
• 56 A sections per newspaper,
per term for a total of 448 A
Sections
• Lexis Nexis or Wisconsin
Historical Society microfilm
Variable
Coding
• Each article containing at
least one cue was counted
for that day’s total cue
presence

• Additional coding for elite
cue presence

• Weekly totals for each
paper were summed to
reflect trends and expose
patterns
Coding Scope

• Coded 4 subsequent
weeks after cue
presence
                                 silent majority
                                    • Nov. 3, 1969 - Jan. 25,
                                    1970
                                 peace with honor
                                    • Jan. 24, 1973 - April 15,
                                    1973


axis of evil
   • Jan. 29, 2002 - April 23,
   2002
stay the course
   • April 14, 2004 - July 7,
   2004
Coding Scope

• Coded 4 subsequent weeks
after cue presence

• Then coded every other week to
get an additional 4 weeks of data

• allowed us to see the extended
potential decline in cue use, as well
as the nuanced immediate changes
Reliability
• Inter-rater reliability
achieved when cross-
coded 15 data points
• Cue presence search led
to nearly complete
objectivity–no creation of
operational definitions
Validity
• Examined week prior to speech to
determine presidential introduction of
cue
• Potential confounding variable –
changes in cue presence may reflect
change in presidential coverage and
not change in cue presence
                          Approval (%)
        10
           /   17




                      50
                      52
                      54
                      56
                      58
                      60
                      62
                      64
                      66
                      68
        10 /69
          /2
             4/



                                                         19
        10 69




                              56
          /3
             1/
                6
         11 9
           /7


                                             13
        11 /69
          /1
             4/
        11 69
          /2
             1
                                                        67


        11 /69
                                             13




          /2
             8/
                6
         12 9
           /5
        12 /69
                                                  14




          /1
             2
        12 /69
          /1
             9/
        12 69
                                   59




Month
                              6




          /2
             6/
                69
                                                                   Nixon: Silent Majority




          1/
             2/
                70
                      1




          1/
             9/
                7
                                        61




         1/ 0
           16
                                                                                            Public approval poll




               /7
         1/ 0
                          3




           23
               /7
                                             63




         1/ 0
           30
               /7
                                                              Cue presence




                  0
                                                              Public approval




                          3
                                                   64
                                                              Elite cue presence
                         Public approval poll
                                                              Public approval
                               Nixon: Peace with Honor        Cue presence
                                                              Elite cue presence
                    80
Approval (%)




                         22

                    70        67        65
                    60                                       58
                    50   51                                       54
                              13                                            48
                    40
                    30                       7

                    20              4
                                                                       5
                                                  3                              3
                    10                                   1

                     0
                      73

               2/ 3




                      73

               3/ 3




               4/ 3
               1/ 3

               1/ 3
                       3




               2/ 3
                       3




               3/ 3

               3/ 3
                       3



               4/ 3

               4/ 3
                       3
                      7




                      7




                      7
                    /7

                    /7

                    /7




                    /7

                    /7




                    /7

                    /7

                    /7



                    /7

                    /7

                    /7
                   2/

                   9/




                   2/

                   9/




                   6/
                 12

                 19

                 26




                 16

                 23




                 16

                 23

                 30



                 13

                 20

                 27
                2/

                2/




                3/

                3/




                4/
               1/




                                             Months
                        Public approval poll
                                                                                                                                                                 Public approval
                                                                    Bush: Axis of Evil                                                                           Cue presence
                                                                                                                                                                 Elite cue presence
                                                                              31
              86                                      29
Approval(%)




              84             26                   84                                                   25
                         83
              82                                                    82 82
                                                                                                                 81
              80
                                                                                                                                              79
              78                                                                                                                                        13
                                                                                                                     77                                                                             77
              76                                                                                                               11
                                                                                                                                                                            76
              74                                                                                                                                                                7

                                                                                                                                                                                                        4
              72
                   1/11/02

                                  1/18/02

                                            1/25/02

                                                           2/1/02

                                                                     2/8/02

                                                                                   2/15/02

                                                                                             2/22/02

                                                                                                            3/1/02

                                                                                                                      3/8/02

                                                                                                                                    3/15/02

                                                                                                                                              3/22/02

                                                                                                                                                             3/29/02

                                                                                                                                                                       4/5/02

                                                                                                                                                                                    4/12/02

                                                                                                                                                                                              4/19/02
                                                                                                       Month
                     Public approval poll
                                                                  Public approval
                               Bush: Stay the Course              Cue presence
                                                                  Elite cue presence
                60   12
Approval (%)




                55
                50   52   52
                                  49            47       49                       47
                45                     46                             46
                40
                                  5
                35
                30                                   3                            3
                           2
                25                          1
                                                              0            0
                20
                      04




                      04




               6/ 4




                      04
               4/ 4

               4/ 4
                       4



               5/ 4

               5/ 4

               5/ 4
                       4



               6/ 4

               6/ 4
                       4
                      0
                    /0

                    /0

                    /0



                    /0

                    /0

                    /0

                    /0



                    /0

                    /0

                    /0
                   5/




                   3/




                   7/




                   5/
                  12

                  19

                  26



                  10

                  17

                  24

                  31



                  14

                  21

                  28
               4/




                5/




                6/




                7/
               4/




               5/




                                            Months
Discussion
• Cueing does seem to have
an effect on presidential
approval ratings
• However, it is not a
consistent or predictable effect
• Some phrases resonate with
the media and public more
than others—why?
Silent Majority
• Famous phrase—took on
a life of its own and
adopted by many different
segments of the
population, including the
KKK.




                       Is it a good
                       thing?
Stay the course
• Repeated over and over
   Did nothing for
  Bush’s ratings.
   Very little adoption
  of phrase by media.




            … But why?
Why do      • Lost in the clutter
            •Other news
some cues stories
get adopted •Other sources of
and others news
don’t?      •Other sources of
            opinion
No magic bullet
• Presidents may have
the “bully pulpit” but
cannot force public to
listen to his message.
• However, sometimes
he may wish he had
never said it…
Summary
In most cases the use of the cue by
elites influenced the use of the cue by
non-elites.

Even though public opinion levels did
rise with the usage of the term by elites,
the increase was not significant enough
to conclude that this usage was the only
relevant factor.

								
To top