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ICTP_research_proposal

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									                   Research History
Staff member ECMWF, 00 – present
   Many collaborations
   Cloud schemes, African climate, radiation, stochastic
    physics, data assimilation
Post-doc Max Planck Institute: 97 – 00
   Working mostly alone
   Convective organisation, first prognostic statistical cloud
    scheme
PhD University of Reading: 94 – 97
   Ground-work education
   Cloud resolving models, tropical convection, radiative
    convective equilibrium




               Adrian Tompkins: ICTP research plans      1
               Previous Research Topics (I)

 Idealized process studies using models (convection)
      Convective initiation: e.g. coldpools, humidity
      Role of humidity for convective organisation
      Tropical cloud feedbacks for future climates
      Role of humidity on the Madden-Julian Oscillation
 Global model cloud schemes
    ECHAM5: First prognostic statistical cloud scheme
    New numerics/physics for ECMWF forecast model cloud scheme
     (e.g. ice supersaturation)
    Simple parametrization for aerosol feedbacks on ice phase clouds
 Data assimilation
    New cloud scheme for 4D-Var assimilation system



                    Adrian Tompkins: ICTP research plans      2
              Previous Research Topics (II)
 Radiation
    Developed simple diagnostic spectral cloud model for radiation
     investigations
    New parametrization of cloud overlap in the ECMWF radiation
     scheme for declining sun angles
 Africa
      Used JET-2000 observations to assess ECMWF in Africa
      Dust-radiative feedback impact on African dynamics
      Role of Med SSTs in governing Sahel rainfall
      AMMA-ECMWF: new ECMWF representative on international
       scientific steering committee
 Observations
    Aircraft data use for cloud scheme development
    Collaborations with University of Reading, JPL, and others as
     part of Cloudnet, Cliwanet, JET2000

                 Adrian Tompkins: ICTP research plans     3
         Research Experience Summary
 Models:
    Global NWP
    Global climate models
    Cloud resolving models
 Parametrization of processes:
    Convection
    Cloud cover and microphysics (also for DA)
    Radiation
 Studied different regimes:
    Radiative convective equilibrium
    African climate
    Global convective and cloud systems
 Good personal connections to a wide community
    US/EU/Africa, NWP & climate, diverse research fields

                 Adrian Tompkins: ICTP research plans       4
           Future (New) Research Direction:
              “The West African Monsoon”
Rain-fed agriculture with high food insecurity
Large problems to tackle
    Models are relatively poor in this region e.g. ECMWF
    Models diagnostics are not tailored for this region
    Difficulty of getting information to end-users
Excellent research problem
    Interaction between organised convection and larger-scale
     dynamics: e.g. Heat low, Easterly Waves and Easterly Jet
    Potential significant role of aerosols
    Role of land-surface and local SST interactions
Timeliness: 2006 AMMA Campaigns
    Excellent new database of intensive observations to make
     progress with this problem

                Adrian Tompkins: ICTP research plans    5
                               AMMA
 Included: Aircraft campaigns, radars, mobile ARM, chemistry
  and aerosols, soil moisture, conventional obs, driftsondes,
  organised in LOP, EOP, and SOPs…
 Special Observing Periods (SOP) in 2006: (i) the dry season
  (Jan-Feb), (ii) Monsoon onset (15 May-30 June), (iii) Peak
  monsoon (1 July -14 August) and (iv) Late monsoon (15
  August-15 September).




                 Adrian Tompkins: ICTP research plans   6
                                                           24 hr Precipitation ACC scores
                                                                                                                 From Mark Rodwell
                                                           ACC for Asian Monsoon P                                                                                                      ACC for North African Monsoon P
                                                                                                p/c                                                                                                                                       p/c
                      0.6                                                                                                                                       0.6
                               P         is 24h precipitation at SYNOP locations and divided by climatology                                                             P     is 24h precipitation at SYNOP locations and divided by climatology
                                   p/c                                                                                                                                  p/c
                                                                                                                JJA 2006                                                                                                                           JJA 2006
                                                                                                                JJA 2005                                                                                                                           JJA 2005
                                                                                                                JJA 2004                                                                                                                           JJA 2004
                      0.5
                                   Asian Monsoon                                                                JJA 2003
                                                                                                                JJA 2002
                                                                                                                JJA 2001
                                                                                                                                                                0.5

                                                                                                                                                                       African Monsoon                                                             JJA 2003
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   JJA 2002
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   JJA 2001

                                                                                                      70% Confidence Interval                                                                                                            70% Confidence Interval
                      0.4                                                                                                                                       0.4
Anomaly Correlation




                                                                                                                                          Anomaly Correlation
                      0.3                                                                                                                                       0.3




                      0.2                                                                                                                                       0.2




                      0.1                                                                                                                                       0.1




                      0.0                                                                                                                                       0.0
                               1             2         3         4        5         6          7          8            9         10                                           1.75      2.75      3.75     4.75      5.75      6.75      7.75        8.75          9.75
                                                                     Lead-time (days)                                       M.J.Rodwell                                                                   Lead-time (days)                                     M.J.Rodwell




                            Approximately 180 SYNOP stations are                                                                                                      Approximately 20 SYNOP stations are
                                       used each day                                                                                                                            used each day

                                                                                                                                      Highlights problems of
                                                                                                                                      conventional coverage
                                                                               Adrian Tompkins: ICTP research plans                                                                                                               7
                                       Brightness Temperature
                                        26 July 2006 00 UTC
               Meteosat Tb + 700 hPa steamfunction (T+00)
        METEOSAT 8 SEVIRI (Channel 9 IR10.8) Brightness Temperature Wednesday 26 July 2006 0000UTC
              ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 26 July 2006 00UTC 700hPa u-velocity/ v-velocity
                          20°W         10°W                   0°                   10°E              20°E   30°E            40°E


                                  23                                                                                                           299
                                                                                                                                   13
                                               -8                                                                                              294
 25°N                                                                                                                                   25°N   289
          -8                                        -8                                                             20       15                 284
                                                                        20                                                                     279
               -16                                                                                                      23                     274
 20°N                                                                                                                                   20°N   269
                                                                                                                                               264
                                                                                          -8                                                   259
                                                                              15                                                               254
 15°N                                                                                                                                   15°N
                                                                                                                                               249
                                 23                                                                                                            244
13 N                       -16                                     23                                                                          239
                     -8                       22         26                                    23                                              234
 10°N                                                                                                                                   10°N
                                                                                                                                               229
                                                                                                    -8                                         224
                                                         -8




                                                                   20    25                                                                    219
                                                                                                                                               214
                                                                   19                                                                          209
  5°N                                                                                                                                   5°N
                                                                                                                                               204
                                                                             -8    16                                                          199
                                                                                                                                               194
                                                                                                                                               189
                          20°W         10°W                   0°                   10°E              20°E   30°E            40°E




        From Anna Agusti-Panareda
                             Adrian Tompkins: ICTP research plans                                                       8
                                         Brightness Temperature
                                          26 July 2006 00 UTC
        Simulated Tb (T+00) + 700 hPa steamfunction (T+00)
          Wednesday 26 July 2006 00UTC ECMWF t+0 VT:Wednesday 26 July 2006 00UTC
       RTTOV generated METEOSAT 8 SEVIRI (Channel 9 IR10.8) Brightness Temperature (10 bit)

                         20°W         10°W                   0°                   10°E              20°E   30°E        40°E


                                 23                                                                                                       303
                                                                                                                              13          300
                                              -8                                                                                          297
25°N                                                                                                                               25°N
         -8                                        -8                                                             20   15                 294
                                                                                                                                          291
                                                                       20                                                                 288
              -16                                                                                                      23                 285
20°N                                                                                                                               20°N   282
                                                                                                                                          279
                                                                                         -8                                               276
                                                                             15                                                           273
15°N                                                                                                                               15°N   270
                                23                                                                                                        267
                          -16                                     23                                                                      264
                    -8                       22         26                                    23                                          261
                                                                                                                                          258
10°N                                                                                               -8                              10°N
                                                        -8




                                                                  20    25                                                                255
                                                                                                                                          252
                                                                                                                                          249
                                                                  19                                                                      246
 5°N                                                                                                                               5°N    243
                                                                            -8    16                                                      240
                                                                                                                                          237
                                                                                                                                          234

                         20°W         10°W                   0°                   10°E              20°E   30°E        40°E

         From Anna Agusti-Panareda
                              Adrian Tompkins: ICTP research plans                                                       9
                                        Brightness Temperature
                                         26 July 2006 00 UTC
     Simulated Tb (T+24) + 700 hPa steamfunction (T+24)
                          Tuesday 25 July 2006 00UTC ECMWF t+24 VT:Wednesday 26 July 2006 00UTC
                     RTTOV generated METEOSAT 8 SEVIRI (Channel 9 IR10.8) Brightness Temperature (10 bit)
        Tuesday 25 July 2006 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+24 VT: Wednesday 26 July 2006 00UTC 700hPa u-velocity/ v-velocity
                      20°W              10°W                       0°                  10°E                  20°E   30°E         40°E


                              23                    -8                                                                                              302
                                                                                                                                        13          299
                                                                                                                                                    296
 25°N                                                                                                                                        25°N
                                                                                                                           20    15                 293
                                                                                                                                                    290
           -8
                                                                             20                                                                     287
                                                                                                                                23                  284
                                                                                                                                                    281
 20°N                                                                                                                                        20°N
                                                                                                                                                    278
                                                                                                                                                    275
                                                                                                                                                    272
                                                                                  15               -8                                               269
                -16                                                                                                                                 266
 15°N                                                                                                                                        15°N
                             23                          -8                                                                                         263
                                                                        23                                                                          260
                                               22             26                                   23                                               257
                                                                                                                                                    254
 10°N                              -8                                                                                                        10°N   251
                                                                        20    25              -8                                                    248
8N                                                                                                                                                  245
                                                                                                                                                    242
                                                                        19                                                                          239
 5°N                                                                                                                                         5°N
                                                                                                                                                    236
                                                                                       16                                                           233
                                                                                                                                                    230
                                                                                                        -8                                          227

                      20°W              10°W                       0°                  10°E                  20°E   30°E         40°E

        From Anna Agusti-Panareda
                             Adrian Tompkins: ICTP research plans                                                               10
 Daily, weekly and intra-seasonal prediction?
 Sources of Predictability over daily and weekly timescales:
    Dynamical and thermodynamical fields, especially wind shear and
     humidity
    Madden-Julian Oscillation
    Sea-surface temperatures
       Gulf of Guinea
       Mediterranean Sea
       Remote
    Land surface anomalies
       Soil Moisture
       Vegetation
 Why does this not translate to predictability of rainfall?
 Poor model physics and lack of interaction across scales?
  (MCS, AEW, AEJ, SHL)

                Adrian Tompkins: ICTP research plans       11
                                         ECMWF Analysis
                                          of the Velocity
27th June
                                         potential Anomaly

                                             Using this, Andre
                                            Kamga of ACMAD in
                                              Niamey went on
1st July                                    Niger national radio
                                               and (correctly)
                                              predicted a late
                                              monsoon onset


8th July
            Adrian Tompkins: ICTP research plans         12
            Analysis                                   7 Day FC



27th June




1st July




8th July
                Adrian Tompkins: ICTP research plans              13
                             FEWS(black), D+1(red),D+3(navy), D+5(green), D+7(cyan)
                         8


                                Mean rainfall
                                of Sahel
                                                                                                                                                  Rainfall
                         6


                                region
     Rainfall [mm/day]




                                                                                                                                           But 7 day forecast does
                         4

                                                                                                                                           much better at late onset
                                                                                                                                           than 1 day forecast
                         2




                                                                                                                                           Other sources of
                         0
                         MON
                          1
                               MAY
                                     FRI
                                     12
                                           TUE
                                            23
                                                 SAT
                                                  3
                                                       JUN
                                                             WED
                                                              14
                                                                   SUN
                                                                    25
                                                                          THU
                                                                           6
                                                                                JUL


                             FEWS(black), D+1(red),D+3(navy), D+5(green), D+7(cyan)
                                                                                     MON
                                                                                      17

                                                                                   2006
                                                                                           FRI
                                                                                           28
                                                                                                 TUE
                                                                                                  8
                                                                                                       AUG
                                                                                                             SAT
                                                                                                              19
                                                                                                                   WED
                                                                                                                    30
                                                                                                                         SUN
                                                                                                                          10
                                                                                                                               SEP
                                                                                                                                     THU
                                                                                                                                      21
                                                                                                                                           predictability, other than
                 14
                                                                                                                                           MJO? (e.g. Gulf SSTs?)
                                Latitude
                 12

                                of rainfall                                                                                                Regional predictions on a
                                maximum
Latitude [degrees]




                 10

                                                                                                                                           more local scale are thus
                         8
                                                                                                                                           currently impossible with
                         6
                                                                                                                                           this model
                         4



                                                                         From Anna Agusti-Panareda
                         2
                         MON
                          1
                                     FRI
                                     12
                                           TUE
                                            23
                                                 SAT
                                                  3
                                                             WED
                                                              14
                                                                   SUN
                                                                    25
                                                                          THU
                                                                           6 Adrian Tompkins: ICTP research plans
                                                                                    MON
                                                                                     17
                                                                                           FRI
                                                                                           28
                                                                                                 TUE
                                                                                                  8
                                                                                                             SAT
                                                                                                              19
                                                                                                                   WED
                                                                                                                    30
                                                                                                                         SUN
                                                                                                                          10
                                                                                                                                     THU
                                                                                                                                      21                      14
                    Local - Users
…have needs for making local decisions such as
 planting dates
…Reliable forecasts of rainfall, temperature
 extremes and water resources even on a 0 to 2+
 week timescale would aid the decision process
 and mitigation planning
Currently I have the impression that these needs
 are not being met by global NWP centres




             Adrian Tompkins: ICTP research plans   15
                Global NWP centres
Have to prioritize their efforts – It is inevitable that
 priorities will focus on funding regions (e.g.
 ECMWF=EU)
Despite coordination at the level of the WMO,
 regional needs are not easily communicated to
 model developers
Projects such as AMMA have boosted the
 validation possibilities and help to focus attention
 on regional requirements but…
…the global NWP requirement slows (or even
 prevents) implementation of model improvements
 that target specific regions
               Adrian Tompkins: ICTP research plans   16
                           ICTP
…Has a regional climate model REG-CM3…with
 all the (potential) ingredients to perform regional
 climate simulations for this region
…This system would benefit from a NWP
 framework
Better NWP capability  Better climate
 representation (well usually, but not always!)




             Adrian Tompkins: ICTP research plans   17
            Unique position of ICTP
Mission: “Foster the growth of advanced studies
 and research…especially among researchers
 from developing countries”
ICTP is in the ideal position to bridge the gap
 between global NWP centres and researchers/end
 users in West Africa

 West Africa                                           Global NWP
end users and                  ICTP                      Centres
 researchers




                Adrian Tompkins: ICTP research plans        18
           A targeted regional prediction system
Improvements to cloud and            ECMWF global forcing fields
convective representation:
• Mesoscale convective
system forecast ability
• Convective communication
and triggering
• Cloud interaction with
                                                 RegCM-X
aerosols (ice phase)


Verification:
Intra-seasonal statistics of              Land surface scheme
rainfall and temperature                    with Crop model
extremes, Monsoon onset,
break periods and recession,
dust, crop predictions (using
AMMA and CRM and ACMAD)
                                    DELIVERY and FEEDBACK!!!

                     Adrian Tompkins: ICTP research plans    19
              Institutional Structures
            ACMAD, Niger                   African National Met
            Andre Kamga                          Services


UK/France
Leeds
             AMMA                  ICTP
Albany
Toulouse
CEH
                                                          ARPA-(Italy)
            ECMWF                                     1D-Var DA in RM
            Analyses         IMF (Germany)
            GEMS             Sarah Jones
                             Lokal Modell CRM studies

               Adrian Tompkins: ICTP research plans          20
     Good reasons to extend link to AMMA

For the AMMA project to have a lasting impact on
 the well-being of the African populations it needs
 to be demonstrated that :
   i) the research has an impact on the decision making,
   ii) A sustainable state of the art environmental monitoring
       network for forecasting systems can be maintained,
   iii) African scientists can pursue the development of a better
       understanding of the dependence of human activities on
       weather and climate and
   iv) that they will continue improving forecasting systems over
      the region.
   (from the AMMA website “AMMA’s Training and Education Goals”)

                  Adrian Tompkins: ICTP research plans             21
                     Potential Pitfalls
ICTP potential in terms of:
    Manpower – Community interactions
    Computing resources – Retain “low power” ethos for
     exportability
REG-CM3 “weaknesses”
    Hydrostatic core (reliance on different models for CRM
     benchmarks) – Eventual move to non-hydrostatic core?
    Physics diversity from global model and lack of two-way
     interaction – Emphasise links to NWP and aim for “trickle-
     up” physics




                Adrian Tompkins: ICTP research plans     22
           Potential Benefits for ICTP
Improved capability of representing monsoon
 systems
   Better NWP capability             Better climate representation
Strengthen links to African community through
 NWP role
Strengthen links to ECMWF and European NWP
 community
Eventual long term aim would be to extend this
 system to Indian and American monsoon




              Adrian Tompkins: ICTP research plans        23

								
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