Probability

							The Fête
                    A pupil opens a stall at a school
                    fête.
                    He has twelve rubber ducks
                    floating in a bucket of water.
                    Each player pays 50p and picks
                    out a duck.

       DUNKADUCK!


50p!
If it is marked with a


then the player wins a prize.
If it is marked with a


then the player wins a free go.
Two ducks are marked with a


and three ducks are marked with
a
                    What is the probability of
                    winning a free go?
                    What is the probability of
                    winning a prize?




       DUNKADUCK!


50p!
                    Some friends decide to be
                    cheeky. One person plays but
                    picks out a losing duck.
                    The next person remembers the
                    losing duck and picks out a
                    different one.
                    What is the probability that he
       DUNKADUCK!   wins a prize?


50p!
                    The pupil notices that people are
                    cheating so he decides to change
                    the rules.
                    Now players must pick two
                    ducks and get a matching pair of


                    to win a prize.
       DUNKADUCK!
                    What is the probability of
                    winning a prize now?
50p!