IFPS : AL ook at the Future by Oi4S6F

VIEWS: 0 PAGES: 35

									IFPS : A Look at the Future


 Michael Buchanan
 WFO Corpus Christi
            Current Status
 Local implementation began May 15, 2002
  with the CWF.
 SRH is mandating all regularly issued
  products be done on IFPS by 9/30/02.
 NWSH is mandating all CONUS sites be
  fully operational on IFPS by 9/30/03 (Initial
  Operating Capability).
    What about the ZFP, FWF,
         RDF and CCF?
 Our office will slowly phase in these other
  products into our IFPS operations through
  the upcoming summer.
 Specific dates are yet to be determined.
 Additional training will be necessary to
  address software changes, updated forecast
  methodology, new smart tools, etc.
        Software Changes
 There will be more frequent IFPS updates
  beginning in June 2002.
 Rapid Alpha Process (RAP) was developed
  to achieve the NWS target of 2003 IFPS
  implementation.
 RAP software will be upgraded every 6-8
  weeks.
 IFPS10 will be the first build.
      LX1, LX2 & Linux1-crp
 LX1 & LX2 are the            Linux1-crp is the Dell
  two IBM workstations          machine located next
                                AWIPS WS1.
  located next to
                               Linux1-crp has the Rapid
  AWIPS WS1 & WS2.
                                Prototype software (RPP).
 LX1 & LX2 will have          RPP version may be
  the RAP software.             slightly different than
 They will have the full       RAP.
  IFPS ported to Linux.        Only GFESuite; not full
                                IFPS.
    Future Hardware/Software
 Additional Linux boxes in the future (PP1,
  PP2).
 Pen mouse graphics tablet.
 Post-build 5.x AWIPS software (OB1).
 Full Linux replacement by FY06.
    Primary reason for IFPS
 Produce a displayable, detailed digital
  database (National Digital Forecast
  Database) that can be shared easily among
  both public and private entities.
 The forecast data should always be
  “current” and be easily pulled by any
  customer who wants it (pull vs. push).
                      NDFD
   Official NWS digital database.
   Pulled once an hour from each WFO and uploaded
    to a central server.
   Transmitted through the AWIPS WAN.
   Can now view the NDFD experimental clusters at
    http://165.92.30.124:8080/ndfd_images/ (WAN
    only).
   Available to all public and private users (i.e, The
    Weather Channel?).
 “New way of doing business”
 GRIDS are the key, NOT words!!!!!
 View the forecast “product” as information
  and not only as text.
 Paradigm shift.
 Working/interacting with models rather
  than simply looking at them.
 Forecast collaboration vs. coordination.
    “New way of doing business”
   Provide the customer with an easy way to access
    our forecasts.
   Assigned shift duties may need to be changed
    based upon a temporal division of forecast
    responsibility (i.e, short-term and long-term desks)
    or the “problem of the day”.
   Overlapping shifts may need to be considered.
   Event-driven updates and keeping the grids
    “current” will be a necessity with NDFD.
   Outreach to customers on IFPS should be strongly
    considered.
    Time to Issue the Zones?
 We all need to change the way we approach
  the forecast.
 New forecast paradigm (grids…digital
  data…graphics…etc.).
 NWS has adopted this paradigm.
 Some forecasters will resist because “this is
  the way I’ve always done it”.
When do we issue an update
     in the IFPS era?
   Event-driven updates.
    – Weather does not match forecast.
    – New model data arrives (i.e., when the new
      MRF arrives, you may want to populate Day 7).
   Constant monitoring of the grids will likely
    be a routine duty.
    – WFO Pleasant Hill has their short-term
      forecaster monitor grids 24 hours a day.
    Internet is a big player with
                IFPS
 WFO Atlanta has a nice and easy interface
  for IFPS graphics.
 WFO Pleasant Hill has a powerful interface
  to access grids and produce text,
  meteograms and hourly digital data (hourly
  RDF). This is a good example of pull
  technology.
               Our Website
 Still need to decide on the template(s) for
  accessing our gridded forecasts from our website.
 How will the Marine Page fit in with IFPS?
 What about the public and marine matrices that
  serve as input to the pre-existing graphics? Can we
  ditch these in a few months?
 Input…suggestions…ideas should go to the
  webmaster.
Why is collaboration needed?
        Collaboration Tools
 Intersite Coordination (ISC).
 FX-Connect software.
 Chat room to discuss the forecast situation
  with neighboring offices.
                    ISC
 The main motivation is to make your
  forecast meteorologically consistent with
  your neighbor’s forecast.
 Jack Kelly wants a “seamless stream of
  data”.
 Will help NDFD look more realistic with
  less in the way of artificial geographical
  boundaries and individual forecaster bias.
                     ISC
 It is currently disabled on linux1-crp box.
 The next software build (RPP 16.2 and
  IFPS10) will contain ISC functionality.
 Marine ISC still needs to be addressed.
 Training on this new feature of GFE will
  occur after it is configured.
              FX-Connect
 Chat capability.
 Extensive drawing capabilities (i.e., you can
  draw fronts and other meteorological
  symbols).
 D2D functionality (Models, WSR-88D,
  Satellite, etc.).
 NWSH may provide this software to each
  office in a future software build.
      Daily Forecast Critique
 Allows the forecaster to compare his/her
  forecast with observations and/or model
  data.
 Provides real-time “verification”.
 Initially, point verification will be used but
  eventually grid verification is envisioned.
 Available with the same build as ISC.
Daily Forecast Critique
                  DFC
 Summary statistics are planned (BIAS,
  MAE, etc.).
 New interface and graphics package are
  also planned.
 Automated alerts based upon certain
  thresholds.
Other upcoming IFPS features
 Fire Weather functionality in IFPS10.
 Marine WWA capability in IFPS10 (MWS
  can now be produced in WWA).
 AVN and MRF MOS (MAV and MEX) in
  IFPS10.
 Service Backup functionality in IFPS11
  (July/Aug 2002).
                Other issues
   TPC will likely NOT be on board with IFPS
    for the upcoming hurricane season.
    – This will pose a big problem with trying to get
      your grids to match the official TPC forecast.
    – A Smart Tool to decode the TCM data may be a
      temporary fix.
   Other NCEP sites (SPC, HPC, MPC) are
    still a ? in terms of IFPS implementation.
                      Recap
   IFPS Implementation will continue through the
    summer and be completed by 9/30/02.
   Think grids, graphics, web and NOT just text
    (Paradigm shift).
   Collaboration will become very important with
    NDFD.
   Many new and exciting software enhancements.
   Shift responsibilities may change (short-term and
    long-term desks).
                 Finally!!!
 Ultimately, the
  success of IFPS will
  depend upon the
  customers who use
  our gridded data.
 The NWS is betting
  alot on this link
  between information
  and the customer!!!

								
To top