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					Managing Western Water
  as Climate Changes
      Denver, CO
 February 20-21, 2008
  “Lake Mead May Go Dry By 2021”
- LA Times
- Las Vegas Sun
Shortage
Criteria for
the Lower
Colorado
River
Basin
   , What do users want? What is available?
      What is needed from R&D? What is
                  possible?

What is potentially                      Spectrum of
predictable/observable                   User Needs




Current Forecast/
Monitoring Products
Thanks to…..
                 DECISIONS
Project Operations
• Schedule and execute all facility operations to
  store, release, and divert water for all project
  purposes, including hydropower generation and
  water deliveries for irrigation, municipal supplies,
  environmental purposes, recreation, and (with
  USACE) flood control.
   – Within constraints of state water laws and compacts,
     international treaties, etc
• Plan annual operations based upon forecasts of
  supply and demand and the competing priorities
  for water use.
Project Planning (including for changes in existing
  Operations)
• Plan new water projects, long-term operations,
  or changes in operations of existing projects.
  Forecast basin inflows, water demands, water
  storage, releases and deliveries, power
  generation, reservoir levels, downstream effects,
  groundwater effects, environmental, economic,
  social, and recreation consequences.
• Carry out these studies in compliance with the
  National Environmental Policy Act, the
  Endangered Species Act, and numerous other
  Federal and State regulations requiring use of
  best available information.
Dam Safety
• Regularly assess and mitigate, using a
  risk-based approach, potential hazards to
  the integrity of all Reclamation structures
  whose failure could cause loss of life and
  economic damages. Potential hazards
  include extreme hydrologic events.
Environmental Resources Management
• Restore, enhance, provide, or maintain, aquatic or riparian habitat,
  principally for threatened and endangered species (e.g., salmon,
  steelhead, bull trout, pike minnow, humpback chub, pallid sturgeon,
  willow flycatcher, piping plover, whooping crane) and waterfowl to
  comply with environmental laws, legislation, and court rulings.
• Prevent the spread of aquatic and riparian invasives, remove them,
  and restore habitat.
• Decide where to invest limited resources for restoration based on
  expected future conditions.

    –   manage stream flows for water temperature, habitat, and passage
    –   facilitate fish access to presently inaccessible habitat
    –   restore spawning, rearing, migration, and other important habitats.
    –   manage peak flows, sediment transport, and geomorphology
    –   restore channels and associated habitats
    –   restore wetlands
    –   restore and maintain native vegetation types
        Information Wishes
Future Climate Scenarios
• Probabilities of emission paths?
• Which climate models should be used?
Demand Forecasting
• Improved short-term forecasts (e.g., 3-
  month) of water demand
• Long-range forecasts of changes in water
  use and demand
Water Supply/Runoff Forecasting
• Intra-Annual
   – Volume Forecasting reflective of changing climate
   – Timing Forecasting reflective of chaning climate


• 2-5 year outlooks in volumes and timing relevant to
  climate state

• Longer than 5 Year Projections
   – Method for adjusting historic flows to reflect past or projected
     climate change
   – “Basin-scale” or “project-relevant” climate change information
   – Forecasts of climate change impacts on groundwater supplies
• Improved estimates of probability associated with all
  water supply forecasts
Environmental Impacts of Climate Change
• Climate impacts on threatened and endangered species
• Climate impacts on species-relevant indicators, e.g, flow
  volumes and timing, reservoir levels, temperature
  regimes and stratification, and other biologically-
  important river, riparian, and reservoir characteristics.
• Climate impacts on watershed landscapes, e.g, fire,
  sedimentation, runoff, invasives, groundwater.
• Climate impacts on the biology/productivity of oceans,
  estuaries, river systems
• Climate change triggering new species listings
• Opportunities for reducing impacts of climate change on
  species and habitats.
• Reclamation operations’ effects on climate?
Dam Safety/Flood Operations
• Knowing the effect of climate change on dam
  safety risk, as climate change could affect
  possible extreme hydrologic events and flood
  frequencies.
• Knowing the effects of moving climate on flood
  control rule curves (~30-year moving antecedent
  period)

Social/Economics Impacts
• Predictions of climate impacts on the broader
  human environment
    Climate Information Quality
• Understandable, explainable to managers,
  solicitors, public, water users
• Widely accepted (have scientific credibility, can't
  be a hotly debated method, approach)
• Relatively affordable
• Incorporated using "in-house" expertise
• Adaptable to changing planning objectives and
  constraints
• Adding value, not just more complexity and
  uncertainty, to the decision
• Information has some "stationarity“ (Curt’s joke)
Chuck Clarke, Seattle PUD

				
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