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									Electricity Efficiency in
  California’s Future

       Mark D. Levine

      Sacramento, CA
       May 24, 2006
Ancient History
     CA Peak Power: Testimony by Goldstein and Rosenfeld
     Dec 1974, updated to show actual peak demand in 1985




DivRev05 page 3
History
     Per Capita Electricity Sales
     (not including self-generation) self-generation)
                Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including
                                                                                     (kWh/person)
       14,000



       12,000



       10,000



         8,000



         6,000



         4,000



         2,000
                                       California
                                       United States
                  0
                      1960

                             1962

                                    1964

                                           1966

                                                  1968

                                                         1970

                                                                1972

                                                                       1974

                                                                              1976

                                                                                     1978

                                                                                            1980

                                                                                                   1982

                                                                                                          1984

                                                                                                                 1986

                                                                                                                        1988

                                                                                                                               1990

                                                                                                                                      1992

                                                                                                                                             1994

                                                                                                                                                    1996

                                                                                                                                                           1998

                                                                                                                                                                  2000

                                                                                                                                                                         2002

                                                                                                                                                                                2004
DivRev05 page 5
      California Electricity Demand 1980-2004

      280,000


      260,000


      240,000


      220,000

                                                                                Average annual growth rate: 2.0%
      200,000
GWh




      180,000


      160,000


      140,000


      120,000


      100,000
                  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
                                                                             Year


DivRev05 page 6
     California Population 1980-2004
              40,000,000


              38,000,000


              36,000,000


              34,000,000


              32,000,000
     People




              30,000,000


              28,000,000
                                                                                     Average annual growth rate: 1.8%

              26,000,000


              24,000,000


              22,000,000


              20,000,000
                           1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
                                                                                      Year

DivRev05 page 7
     Annual Spending on Electrical Energy
     Efficiency (1976-2002)




                  CEC Staff Report “Proposed Energy Savings Goals for Energy Efficiency Programs in
                  California” (2003)
DivRev05 page 8
        Review of Energy Conservation Funding
        and Savings Cycles Over the Last 27 Years
      45000
                                                               --15% of   Annual Electricity Use in California in 2003

      40000



      35000



      30000



      25000
GWh




      20000



      15000



      10000



       5000



         0
         1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

                                                       Appliance Standards   Building Standards   Efficiency Programs


                   CEC (2005)

 DivRev05 page 9
The Future
     Energy Efficiency Program Effects
     Reported in Western Utility Resource Plans

                                                  12,000


                                                                                             2004-2008
                    Annual Energy Savings (GWh)




                                                  10,000
                                                                                             2004-2013

                                                   8,000


                                                   6,000


                                                   4,000


                                                   2,000


                                                      0

                                                                                                                                  PGE




                                                                                                                                              PG&E
                                                                                                                     PacifiCorp




                                                                                                                                        PSE




                                                                                                                                                     SCE
                                                                                                Nevada Power


                                                                                                               NWE




                                                                                                                                                           SDG&E


                                                                                                                                                                   Sierra Pacific
                                                                    BC Hydro
                                                           Avista




                                                                               Idaho Power




           •       The majority of energy-efficiency program activity is projected to occur in California and
                   the Pacific Northwest
           •       Note: results are not normalized for utility size

DivRev05 page 11
     Impact of EE programs in reducing utility load
     growth (2004-2013)
                                                    4%
                    Annual Energy Load Growth (%)
                                                                                                 Total Energy Requirements
                                                    3%                                           Adjusted Forecast (net of incremental program effects)




                                                    2%




                                                    1%




                                                    0%




                                                                                                                   PGE




                                                                                                                                 PG&E
                                                                                                                         PSE
                                                                                                      PacifiCorp
                                                                                           NWE




                                                                                                                                           SCE



                                                                                                                                                    SDG&E
                                                                  BC Hydro
                                                         Avista




                                                                             Idaho Power




       •       Utilities’ forecasted load growth without energy efficiency ranges from 1.1% to 2.4% annually
       •       The three CA utilities expect to reduce electricity growth to <0.5%/year (by >75% from base case expectations)
               over coming 10 years!




DivRev05 page 12
     Population Forecasts (2005-2050)

                        60,000,000
                                                                                                                           Annual
                                                                                                                          average
                                                                                                                       growth of 1.0%
                                            Department of Finance                                                         per year
                        55,000,000          RAND
                                            US Census
                                                                               Annual
                                                                              average
                                                                           growth of 1.7%
                        50,000,000                                            per year
     Number of People




                                                                                                   Annual
                                                                                                  average
                        45,000,000
                                                                                               growth of 1.1%
                                                                                                  per year



                        40,000,000




                        35,000,000




                        30,000,000
                                     2000     2010                  2020                    2030                2040                    2050
                                                                                Year


DivRev05 page 13
     Dramatic Increase in CA Utility
     DSM Program (2006-2008)

                                                                                  Projected Spending on Electrical Energy
                                                                                  Efficiency (2006-2008)
                                                                 800,000

                                                                 750,000

                                                                 700,000

                                                                 650,000

                                                                 600,000
         Historical Spending on Electrical Energy
         Efficiency (1976-2002)                                  550,000

                                                                 500,000

                                                                 450,000

                                                                 400,000

                                                                 350,000

                                                                 300,000

                                                                 250,000

                                                                 200,000

                                                                 150,000

                                                                 100,000

                                                                  50,000

                                                                      0
                                                                      2006                                 2007             2008
                                                                                                       Program Years

                   CEC Staff Report “Proposed Energy Savings Goals for Energy Efficiency Programs in California” (2003)
DivRev05 page 14
A power plant is a building!
 Spaghetti diagram for U.S., 2002


                                        71% of electricity
                                        goes to buildings
                                        (60% in 1976)

                                        Buildings elec is
                                        fastest growing
                                        element, 1976-2002:
                                        Multiple is 2.1




         67% of oil used in U.S. goes
         to vehicles (54% in 1976)
     A larger fraction of electricity goes
        to buildings in rich countries
                                               Buildings Electricity as a Fraction of Total Electricity: Dependence on
                                                                            GDP-PPP/capita
                                                                                                                        World
                                    100%
                                                                           U.S.                      U.S.               Non-OECD

                                    90%
                                                                           1976                      2002               Africa

                                                                                                                        Latin America
                                    80%
                                                                                                                        Asia exc. China
        Buildings Electricity Use




                                    70%                                                OECD
                                                                                                                        China

                                                                                                                        Former SU
                                    60%                   World
                                                                                                                        non-OECD Europe
                                                     Non-OECD
                                    50%                                                                                 Middle East

                                                                                                                        OECD
                                    40%
                                                                                                                        Mexico
                                    30%                                                                                 Japan+Korea

                                    20%                                                                                 USA+Canada
                                                 All data are for 2002 except U.S. 1976 point
                                                 All data are for 2002 except U.S. 1976 point.                          OECD Europe
                                    10%
                                                 Areas of points: proportional to populations.                          Australia+New Zealand

                                     0%                                                                                 USA (1976)
                                           0                10                  20                   30            40   Weighted Regression Fit
                                                                                                            Thousands   (R^2 = .666)
                                                                  GDP-PPP/capita (1995 US Dollars)




“Buildings Electricity” = 100% Commercial and Residential + 15% Industrial + 10% Agricultural.

                                                                            Data provided by Paul Waide, graphics by Shoibal Chakravarty
Backup
     Electricity Consumption per Capita
     (1960-2001)


              16000


              14000
                                                           Western U.S. (less CA)

              12000

                                                                                    U.S.
              10000
        kWh




              8000                                                                            California


              6000


              4000


              2000
                 1960                 1965   1970   1975         1980               1985   1990            1995   2000
                                                                   Year
                        Source: EIA, CEC




DivRev05 page 18
     Statewide Electricity Consumption per
     Capita (1980-2016)




                   CEC Staff Final Report September 2005 CEC-400-2005-034-SF-ED2

DivRev05 page 19
     Energy Intensity – California and the
     United States
                                                                                                            Energy Intensity -- California and the United States
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Figure 3
                                                                    20

                                                                    18
          Intensity (thousand Btus per $ measured in year 2000 $)




                                                                    16

                                                                    14

                                                                    12

                                                                    10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 54%

                                                                    8

                                                                    6                                                                                                                                                            46%
                                                                                                                                                               US down to 54% of 1973 intensity
                                                                    4
                                                                                                                                                               California down to 46% of 1973 intensity
                                                                    2

                                                                    0
                                                                         1963

                                                                                1965

                                                                                       1967

                                                                                              1969

                                                                                                     1971

                                                                                                             1973

                                                                                                                    1975

                                                                                                                           1977

                                                                                                                                  1979

                                                                                                                                         1981

                                                                                                                                                 1983

                                                                                                                                                        1985

                                                                                                                                                                 1987

                                                                                                                                                                        1989

                                                                                                                                                                               1991

                                                                                                                                                                                      1993

                                                                                                                                                                                             1995

                                                                                                                                                                                                    1997

                                                                                                                                                                                                           1999

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2001

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2003
                                                                                                                                                year


DivRev05 page 20
     Statewide Natural Gas Consumption per
     Capita (1980-2016)




                   CEC Staff Final Report September 2005 CEC-400-2005-034-SF-ED2

DivRev05 page 21

								
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