CHANGING TIMES CHANGING VALUES by QGxl4qS

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									Service Areas of Montana’s Largest Hospitals, 1994
Regional Service
Area of Western
Montana Clinic

1992 – 1994
The dots in the map show the
area from which patients served
by Western Montana Clinic
come.

Each dot represents 10 patients
from the more than 200,000
patients served over a three-
year period.
Hospital Care
Service Areas
for Smaller
Hospitals
Nearby
Missoula
Metropolitan Statistical                                Health Care Labor Earnings Per $20 Mil. TPI among All MSAs Nationwide, 2007
Areas with the Highest                                  Rochester, MN                                                                                        $7.39
Dependencies on Health                 Cape Girardeau-Jackson, MO-IL
                                                            Bangor, ME
Care Nationwide                                                Lima, OH
                                                    La Crosse, WI-MN
There are 366 metropolitan                                    Rome, GA
statistical areas in the entire U.S.                           Tyler, TX
and the chart at the right                           Morgantown, WV
identifies and rank orders those                             Muncie, IN
that have the highest economic                   Lewiston-Auburn, ME
dependencies on health care as                            Springfield, IL
an area provider of employment                          Sioux Falls, SD                                 $2.66
income.                                                  Duluth, MN-WI
                                                        Jonesboro, AR
                                            Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
This dependency is measured by
                                         McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
calculating how much labor                                  Altoona, PA
income in generated by an area’s          Saginaw-Saginaw North, MI
health care sector for every $20                Nashville-Davidson, TN
million in area total personal                           Gainesville, FL
income.                                                   St. Cloud, MN
                                                          Missoula, MT                               $2.43
Rochester, MN, home of the Mayo                Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
Clinic, has the highest                               Hattiesburg, MS
dependency on health care of any       Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH
metropolitan area in the U.S. with                           Macon, GA
over $7 million in health care                          Johnstown, PA
labor earnings for every $20                             Eau Claire, WI
                                                          Bismarck, ND                               $2.36
million in area personal income.
                                                         Fort Wayne, IN
                                                            Billings, MT                             $2.32
Interestingly enough, Missoula                            Salisbury, MD
ranks 22nd in its dependency on                                  Erie, PA
health care for employment                       Cumberland, MD-WV
earnings with $2.43 million in                               Joplin, MO
health care labor income for
                                                                        $0.00     $1.00      $2.00      $3.00     $4.00      $5.00      $6.00     $7.00         $8.00
every $20 million in personal
income.                                                                         Source: Sw anson using BEA, U.S. Com m erce Dept. data (there ae 366 MSAs)
Missoula’s Rank Among                           Health Care Lab Inc Per $20 Mil. TPI among MSAs Under 160,000 Nationwide, 2007
All MSAs under 160,000             Cp Girardeau-Jackson, MO-IL                                                                                    $3.18
Population in Health                               Bangor, ME
Care Sector                                          Lima, OH
Dependency Nationwide                        La Crosse, WI-MN
                                                     Rome, GA
Of the 366 MSAs nationwide in
                                              Morgantown, WV
the U.S., 124 of them have
populations of under 160,000.                       Muncie, IN
When you take out the very                Lewiston-Auburn, ME
largest and most populated                      Jonesboro, AR
MSAs and then compare the                          Altoona, PA
remaining ones in terms of
                                                 Missoula, MT                                                                    $2.43
their economic dependency on
health care, Missoula ranks                    Hattiesburg, MS
11th.                                           Johnstown, PA
                                                 Eau Claire, WI
Billings also ranks high at 16th
                                                 Bismarck, ND                                                                $2.36
and Great Falls ranks 24th.
                                                   Billings, MT                                                             $2.32
Missoula, Billings, and Great                    Salisbury, MD
Falls are the primary centers of          Cumberland, MD-WV
health care in Montana with
                                                 Pittsfield, MA
health care sectors
considerably larger and more                       Dubuque, IA
diversified than those in                  Winchester, VA-WV
Montana’s other cities.                        Hot Springs, AR
                                                    Elmira, NY
                                                Great Falls, MT                                                          $2.21
                                                Alexandria, LA

                                                              $0.00       $0.50        $1.00        $1.50       $2.00        $2.50        $3.00        $3.50
                                                           Source: Sw anson using BEA, U.S. Com m erce Dept data (total of 124 MSAs nationally under 160,000)
Health Care                                    Health Care Lab Inc Per $20 million TPI among MSAs Under 160,000 Pop. in the West
Dependency among                               Missoula, MT                                                                               $2.43
MSAs Under 160,000 in                          Bismarck, ND
Montana, Surrounding                             Billings, MT                                                                        $2.32

States, and the West                          Great Falls, MT                                                                     $2.21
                                                 Pueblo, CO
MSAs under 160,000                             Mankato, MN
population located in Montana,              Wenatchee, WA
Washington, Oregon, Idaho,                  Lewiston, ID-WA                                                               $2.02
Wyoming, Utah, Colorado,                 Sioux City, IA-NE-SD
Arizona, New Mexico, Kansas,
                                                   Bend, OR                                                               $2.01
Nebraska, South Dakota, North
                                               Rapid City, SD                                                             $2.00
Dakota, and Minnesota were
then rank ordered in terms of                   Flagstaff, AZ
their dependencies on health                  St. George, UT
care as a source of area labor           Grand Junction, CO                                                           $1.87
earnings.                                Grand Forks, ND-MN
                                                Corvallis, OR
Missoula ranks 1st among all of
                                               Idaho Falls, ID                                                    $1.74
these within this region of the
                                                 Casper, WY                                               $1.54
West with $2.43 million in area
labor earnings from health care              Carson City, NV
services for every $20 million               Farmington, NM
in area personal income.                       Santa Fe, NM
Bismarck, ND, ranks 2nd                    Coeur d'Alene, ID
followed by Billings at 3rd with                Pocatello, ID
$2.32 million. Great Falls is 4th
                                                Logan, UT-ID
at $2.21 million.
                                    Mt Vernon-Anacortes, WA
                                              Cheyenne, WY
                                              Lawrence, KS
                                              Manhattan, KS

                                                            $0.00     $0.50            $1.00          $1.50           $2.00               $2.50   $3.00
                                                                              Source: Sw anson using BEA, U.S. Com m erce Dept. data
Montana Population by                              Montana Population by Age: 1990 vs. 2000
Age, 1990 vs. 2000                     18,000

                                       16,000
The upper chart shows the
number of persons residing in
                                       14,000
Montana by single age from
youngest to oldest in 1990 and         12,000
ten years later in 2000. The lower
chart shows how population             10,000
changed for each age during this
ten-year period.                        8,000


Most of the state’s population          6,000
growth during the ‘90s was
among persons at ages between           4,000
their early 40s and late 50s –
classic “baby boomers” or               2,000
persons born between 1947 and
1963. Some population growth                0

also concentrated among
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children and young adults                                  Source: Censuses of Population
between the ages of 12 and 25.                                 1990 Census   2000 Census
This latter group is the children of
baby boomers or the boomer
                                                Montana Population Change by Age: 1990 to 2000
“Echo” population.                     7,500

Considerable population decline
actually occurred for persons at       5,000

ages between the boomer group
and echo group. There also was         2,500
a fall-off in population for young




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These “ripples” or “waves” in the
population age profile will            -2,500
continue to play out in the future.
                                       -5,000
                                            Montana Population Change by Age: 1990 to 2000
Projected Shifts in               7,500

the Population of
Montana by Age                    5,000

The upper chart shows how
population changed in
Montana by single age from        2,500
youngest to oldest between
1990 and 2000. The lower




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chart shows how population



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is projected to change by the
U.S. Census Bureau (March,
2005, projections) between
2000 and 2010.                    -2,500


The growth in population that
was concentrated among            -5,000
persons between their early
40s and late 50s in the ‘90s is
                                           Montana Projected Pop. Change by Age: 2000 to 2010
projected to be concentrated
                                  7,500
between persons in their early
50s to late 60s in the current
decade.
                                  5,000

The echo population also will
continue to age, shifting
                                  2,500
growth to persons between
their early 20s and mid-30s.




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                                      0
decade the “echo-echo”
population will come into
being, reflected in the recent
                                  -2,500
increase in births.


                                  -5,000
Projected Popu-                                            Montana Projected Pop. Change by Age: 2010 to 2020
lation Growth by              7,500

Age in the Next
Decade – 2010 to
2020
                              5,000

The chart at the right
shows how Montana’s
population is projected to
change by age between
2010 and 2020. During         2,500
the next decade growth in
the state’s population will
shift to persons in their
early 60s to late 70s and




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Montana is in fact                0
projected to have one of
the largest populations
65 and older as a percent
of its total by 2020.
                              -2,500
The echo group or the
children of boomers is
shown in growth among
persons from their early
30s to mid 40s. However,
                              -5,000
this echo group is
projected by the Census        As we look out in front of us, we can see that population growth will continue to manifest itself in
Bureau to be much              ripples and waves, with each successive wave of growth smaller than its immediate predecessor.
smaller than the boomer        This pattern of growth has significant implications. The fastest growth will occur among seniors
group. In turn, the “echo-     and health care demand will continue to rise and housing needs will change. The number of
echo” group is projected       persons at will move up and down at ages where college students are primarily drawn, as well as
to be much smaller than        for high schools and elementary schools. The labor force of Montana will very likely shrink in size
the echo group.                in the future as more and more persons leave the workforce for retirement and there are not
                               enough persons entering the workforce to replace them.
Future Pop. Change in                                                           Projected Montana Pop. by Age Groupings
Montana by Age Grouping                          280,000

                                                 260,000
The projected aging of Montana’s population                                                                                  247,769
                                                 240,000
over the next 20 years can be viewed by
examining how the population is expected to      220,000
                                                                 215,351                                                     215,516          0-17
change by age grouping. The upper chart
shows the population under 18 (high school       200,000                                                                                      18-33
                                                                 191,309                                                     192,115
and younger), the population 18 to 33 (young     180,000
                                                                                                                                              34-49
post-high school adults and those at ages of                                                                                                  50-64
family formation and childrearing), the          160,000                                                                     160,909
                                                                                                                                              65+
population 34 to 49 (young and middle-age
                                                 140,000
adults), the population 50 to 64 (older adults                   129,243
at pre-retirement ages), and the population      120,000
65 and older.
                                                 100,000

The under 18 population, which grew by only


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3% in the ‘90s, is projected to fall by 8%                                         Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005
between 2000 and 2010, then grow slightly in
the subsequent two decades. The young                                Projected Percent Pop. Change by Age Grouping, Montana
adult population, which saw very little          60%
change in the last decade, would grow by
                                                                                            49%
10% in the current decade before declining in    50%                                                                  46%
each of the subsequent periods. The older                            39%
adult working age population between 50 and      40%
64, which saw massive growth in the ‘90s will                                                                                           27%
                                                 30%                                                                                          0-17
also see very high growth in the current
                                                                 22%                             20%                                          18-33
period before beginning a decline. And the
                                                 20%                                                                                          34-49
65 and older population, which grew by only                               13%
                                                                                    10%
13% in the ‘90s, will grow by 20%, 46%, and      10%
                                                                                                              9%                              50-64
27% in the subsequent three decades.                       3%                                          3%                                     65+
                                                                0%
                                                  0%
As a result of these age shifts, Montana will                   '90-'00                '00-'10              '10-'20               -1%
                                                                                                                   -4%      -4% '20-'30
have one of the largest populations over 65      -10%                                                                          -5%
                                                                                 -8%                                                  -8%
of any state in the country in future years.                                            -13%            -14%
                                                 -20%
                                   Annual Births and Deaths by Montana Residents, 1945 -2008

20,000




                          18,219
18,000




16,000

             15,086
                                                                                       14,538
14,000




12,000
                                                             11,444
                                                                                                                10,779
         10,601
10,000


                                                                                                                         8,652
 8,000
                                                                                                        7,626

                                           6,578                                                6,725
                                                                      6,539
 6,000                6,115
         5,414



 4,000




 2,000



                                                   Source: Montana Vital Statistics Bureau


                                                               Births         Deaths
                                                   Actual and Projected Annual Births in Montana, 1945-2030
20,000




                                 '57
18,000




16,000



                                                                                         '82
14,000



                                                                                                                                             '06
12,000                                                                                                                                                   '10
                                                                  '73
                                                                                                                               '99                                                      '25

10,000




 8,000




 6,000
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                                                                              Actual                 Projected
Trends in Births-Deaths                    8,000
                                                                   Annual Births vs. Deaths by Residents: Western Mountain Region

in Montana – West vs.
                                           7,000                                                                                                           6,916
                                                                    6,806
East
                                           6,000
The upper chart shows total births                                                                                    5,590
and deaths each year in the western        5,000
                                                                                                                                                           4,666
mountain region of Montana since the
late ‘70s. The lower chart shows the       4,000                                                                      4,023
                                                                                                                                                                     Births
same for counties in eastern Montana.                     3,364
                                           3,000

Birth totals in the west have recovered                                                                                                                              Deaths
                                           2,000
to levels in the early ‘80s. However, in
the east, total births have risen          1,000
modestly but are well below levels in
the early ‘80s when the current “echo”        0
age group was being born.                       8

                                                      0

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                                                                             Source: Sw anson, using MT Dept. of Health data
The difference between births and
deaths is what is called “natural
                                                                    Annual Births vs. Deaths by Residents: Eastern Plains Region
change” and western Montana is             3,000
currently adding more and more                                       2,817
people through natural change as the                                                                                                                                 Births
                                           2,500
“echo-echo” group is being born.
This should continue for a few more
years. And as births eventually begin      2,000
                                                                                                                                                                     Deaths
to decline, deaths will continue rising.
                                           1,500                                                                                                             1,439
                                                                                                                                                  1,272
                                                                                                                                                             1,130
                                           1,000                                               1,012


                                            500


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                                                     Annual Births by Area in Montana, 1978-2008
7,000


                                                                                                                                 '07


6,000
                                   '84


                                                                                                                                       5 Growing
                           '82                                                                                                         Reg Centers
5,000                                                                            '95
                                                   '88




4,000                                                                                                                                  Cascade&Sil
                                                                                                                                       ver Bow




3,000                                                                                                                      '06
                                                                                                                                       Reservation
                                                                                                                   '04                 Cos. (6)



                   '80
2,000
                                   '84
                                                                                                                                       Rest of
                                                                                                                                 '07   State (43)
                                                                                                       '01
                                                                                 '95
1,000




   0
        '78 '79 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
                                         Source: Swanson using Montana Vital Statistics Bureau data
                                            Annual Births by Montana's 5 Growing Centers, 1978-2008

2,200



2,000                              '84                                                                                                   '08



1,800
                                                                                                                                               YELLOWSTONE


                                                     '88
1,600                                                                       '94
                                                                                                                                               MISSOULA

1,400              '80                                                                                                           '07

                                                                                                                                               FLATHEAD
1,200

                                               '87
                                                                                                                                               GALLATIN
1,000                                                                                   '97
                                   '84


                           '82
 800                                                                                                                                     '08
                                                     '88                                                                                       LEWIS & CLARK

                                                            '90     '92
 600



 400



 200
                                              Source: Montana '92 '93 '94 '95 '96
        '78 '79 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 Vital Statistics Bureau'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
                              Annual Births and Deaths by Missoula Co. Residents, 1955-2008

1,600




1,400
                                                               1,385
                                                                                                                1,369



                1,217
1,200


                                                                                      1,074

1,000   1,014
                                                                                                    992
                                        934



 800

                                                                                                          724


 600                                                                                          596


                                                                                480

                        408                     422
 400
        361




 200


                                              Source: Montana Vital Statistics Bureau

                                                           Births      Deaths
Patterns of                                         Historical Population of Missoula Co. by 10-Yr. Age Grouping, 1970-2008
                             25,000
Population
Change in
Missoula Co. by
                             20,000
Age
While patterns of overall
population growth have                                                                                                                                   0-10

shifted and changed from                                                                                                                                 10-19
                             15,000
period to period, making                                                                                                                                 20-29
them difficult to predict,                                                                                                                               30-39
patterns of change by                                                                                                                                    40-49
age are particularly                                                                                                                                     50-59
complex. The chart at the    10,000                                                                                                                      60-69
right shows the total                                                                                                                                    70-79
estimated population                                                                                                                                     "80 +
over time in Missoula
County by 10-year age
groupings.                    5,000


The area’s youngest
populations – those
under 10 and between 10
and 19 – are shown in            0
“blue”. Young adults in
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                                                                                             '9

                                                                                                   '9

                                                                                                         '9

                                                                                                               '9

                                                                                                                     '9

                                                                                                                           '0

                                                                                                                                 '0

                                                                                                                                       '0

                                                                                                                                             '0

                                                                                                                                                   '0
their 20s are shown in                             Source: U.S. Census Bureau estim ates w ith som e adjustm ents by Sw anson
“green”, middle age
adults are shown in
“red”, older adults are          These data are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau and reflect the population of each age group
then shown in various            on July 1 of each year. It can be seen that for many age groups there are “waves” or ripples
shades of “orange” and           occurring in their numbers with them rising for a time before falling, only to rise again. These
“gold”.                          ups and downs occur over periods of ten to fifteen years.
Missoula County                                      Past & Projected Missoula Co. Population by 10-Yr. Age Groupings, 1970-2030
Population by Age,              25,000

Past and Projected
Progression ratios were
calculated for each 5-year
age group contained in the      20,000
U.S. Census Bureau’s data
on population by age in
Missoula County. These
ratios were then applied to
carry these estimates
                                15,000
forward into the future.

The result is shown in the
chart at the right with the
estimated population of each                                                                                                                                       0-10
10-year age grouping            10,000                                                                                                                             10-19
projected to 2030. The same
color codes are used for the                                                                                                                                       20-29
various age segments with
                                                                                                                                                                   30-39
population under 20 shown
in “blue” and young adults in                                                                                                                                      40-49
their 20s shown in “green”       5,000
                                                                                                                                                                   50-59
and so forth.
                                                                                                                                                                   60-69
The waves in the population                                                                                                                                        70-79
between 20 and 24 can be
clearly seen, with an early                                                                                                                                        "80 +
                                    0
peak in this group occurring
                                     0

                                           3

                                                 6

                                                        9

                                                              2

                                                                    5

                                                                          8

                                                                                1

                                                                                      4

                                                                                             7

                                                                                                   0

                                                                                                         3

                                                                                                               6

                                                                                                                     9

                                                                                                                           2

                                                                                                                                 5

                                                                                                                                       8

                                                                                                                                             1

                                                                                                                                                   4

                                                                                                                                                         7

                                                                                                                                                               0
in the late ‘70s and early
                                   '7

                                         '7

                                               '7

                                                      '7

                                                            '8

                                                                  '8

                                                                        '8

                                                                              '9

                                                                                    '9

                                                                                           '9

                                                                                                 '0

                                                                                                       '0

                                                                                                             '0

                                                                                                                   '0

                                                                                                                         '1

                                                                                                                               '1

                                                                                                                                     '1

                                                                                                                                           '2

                                                                                                                                                 '2

                                                                                                                                                       '2

                                                                                                                                                             '3
                                                                                          Source: Sw anson, 2009
‘80s. This peak coincided
with the ages of many baby
boomers during this time.
Overall Population Growth                                                     Past & Projected Population of Missoula County, 1970-2030
                                       160,000
in Missoula County – Past
and Projected based upon               140,000
                                                                                                                                                                                 132,527
Aging Patterns
                                       120,000                                                                                                                     121,585

Population change in future years                                                                                                            108,714
was projected one 5-year age           100,000
                                                                                                                       95,802
group at a time. These
projections were used to arrive         80,000                                                    79,906
                                                                          76,157
upon a statistical formula for
predicting future births by             60,000      58,608
Missoula Co. residents.
                                        40,000
The upper chart shows how these
sum into overall population totals
for the county. Population would        20,000

rise from its current level of about
107,000 to almost 109,000 by                  0
2010 and to over 121,000 by 2020
                                                0

                                                      3

                                                            6

                                                                  9

                                                                          2

                                                                                  5

                                                                                        8

                                                                                              1

                                                                                                     4

                                                                                                             7

                                                                                                                   0

                                                                                                                         3

                                                                                                                               6

                                                                                                                                      9

                                                                                                                                             2

                                                                                                                                                   5

                                                                                                                                                         8

                                                                                                                                                               1

                                                                                                                                                                      4

                                                                                                                                                                             7

                                                                                                                                                                                   0
                                              '7

                                                    '7

                                                          '7

                                                                '7

                                                                        '8

                                                                                '8

                                                                                      '8

                                                                                            '9

                                                                                                   '9

                                                                                                           '9

                                                                                                                 '0

                                                                                                                       '0

                                                                                                                             '0

                                                                                                                                    '0

                                                                                                                                           '1

                                                                                                                                                 '1

                                                                                                                                                       '1

                                                                                                                                                             '2

                                                                                                                                                                    '2

                                                                                                                                                                           '2

                                                                                                                                                                                 '3
and over 132,000 by 2030. This
reflects a slowing in the pace of                                     Past & Projected Average Annual Population Growth: Missoula County
growth going forward.                  2.0%                1.83%
                                       1.8%
The average yearly growth rate
during the ‘90s was 1.83%, with        1.6%
growth particularly high in the        1.4%                                                   1.27%
early and mid ‘90s. Yearly             1.2%                                                                                        1.13%
average growth in the current          1.0%                                                                                                                        0.87%
decade is estimated at 1.27%.
                                       0.8%
And yearly average growth in the
next two decades is projected at       0.6%
1.13% and 0.87%, respectively.         0.4%
                                       0.2%
This slowing in growth is a
                                       0.0%
reflection of population aging.
                                                          '90-'00                            '00-'10                            '10-'20                            '20-'30
                                          Source: Sw anson, 2009 (im plied annual average grow th rates by decade derived from projections of 5-yr. age groups)
Past and Projected                                                  Past & Projected 20 to 29 Population of Missoula Co., 1970-2030
                                  14,000
Change in the Young
Adult Population of               12,000
Missoula County                                                                                                         '03


                                  10,000
The charts at the right show                                    '80
                                                                                                                                '06                          '19
past and projected numbers                                      '80
of young adults in Missoula        8,000                                                                                                                                 '24
County, dating back to 1970                                                         '89
and projected forward
                                   6,000                                                        '93
through 2030. There were two                                                                                                                                               20 to 24 yrs
previous peaks in the 20 to 24
population, the first in 1980      4,000                                                                                                                                   25 to 29 yrs
and the second in 2003. The
next one is expected to occur
                                   2,000
sometime after 2030.
                                        0

                                              3

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                                                          9

                                                                2

                                                                        5

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                                                                                    1

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                                                                                                   7

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                                                                                                                    3

                                                                                                                          6

                                                                                                                                  9

                                                                                                                                        2

                                                                                                                                               5

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                                                                                                                                                                     4

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                                                                                                                                                                                 0
                                      '7

                                            '7

                                                  '7

                                                        '7

                                                              '8

                                                                      '8

                                                                            '8

                                                                                  '9

                                                                                          '9

                                                                                                 '9

                                                                                                            '0

                                                                                                                  '0

                                                                                                                        '0

                                                                                                                                '0

                                                                                                                                      '1

                                                                                                                                             '1

                                                                                                                                                   '1

                                                                                                                                                           '2

                                                                                                                                                                   '2

                                                                                                                                                                         '2

                                                                                                                                                                               '3
The last peak in the 25 to 29
population was very recent in
                                                                Past & Projected 30 to 39 Population of Missoula Co., 1970-2030
2006. So peaks in both of
                                  12,000
these age groups in 2003 and
2006, respectively, are
accounting for this recent
                                  10,000
increase in births. Adults in
                                                                                                                                                     '16
their early and mid-30s also                                                                                                                '11
are helping to account for
                                   8,000
this, but their numbers aren’t                                                                        '95
                                                                            '85
expected to peak again until
after 2011.                                                                                                               '04
                                   6,000                                                                    '97

As the rise and fall in the                                                                                                                                                30 to 34 yrs
number of young adults
                                   4,000
occurs, so does birth                                                                                                                                                      35 to 39 yrs
numbers and this is what is
reflected in the previous birth
                                   2,000
projections for Missoula
                                        0

                                              3

                                                    6

                                                          9

                                                                2

                                                                        5

                                                                              8

                                                                                    1

                                                                                            4

                                                                                                    7

                                                                                                              0

                                                                                                                    3

                                                                                                                          6

                                                                                                                                  9

                                                                                                                                        2

                                                                                                                                               5

                                                                                                                                                     8

                                                                                                                                                             1

                                                                                                                                                                     4

                                                                                                                                                                           7

                                                                                                                                                                                 0
County.
                                      '7

                                            '7

                                                  '7

                                                        '7

                                                              '8

                                                                      '8

                                                                            '8

                                                                                  '9

                                                                                          '9

                                                                                                  '9

                                                                                                            '0

                                                                                                                  '0

                                                                                                                        '0

                                                                                                                                '0

                                                                                                                                      '1

                                                                                                                                             '1

                                                                                                                                                   '1

                                                                                                                                                           '2

                                                                                                                                                                   '2

                                                                                                                                                                         '2

                                                                                                                                                                               '3
                                                             Annual Births in Missoula Co., Actual (1970-2008) & Projected (2009-2035)
Past and Projected Birth
                                      1,800
Numbers by Missoula
County Residents
Past trends in the number of          1,600
births each year by residents of
Missoula County are examined
using data by the Montana Vital
Statistics Bureau. The chart was
                                      1,400
constructed showing actual                                          '80                                                                 '11
                                                                                                                            '07
births from 1970 through 2008.
These births were then generally
projected into the future based
                                      1,200                                                                                                                              '27
upon an analysis of this past
pattern and the length of time
between peaks and valleys in this                                                                                                                                  '25
pattern using data going back to
the early ‘50s. Projections for       1,000                                                             '97
births statewide by the U.S.
                                                     '72
Census Bureau also were used.                                                                                                                                    Actual & Generally
These past and generally                                                                                                                                         Projected
projected numbers are shown in          800
blue.                                                                                                                                                            Predicted using
                                                                                                                                                                 Regression
A statistical analysis was then
done relating birth each year to
                                        600
the county’s young adult
population – persons 20 to 24, 25
                                           0

                                                 3

                                                        6

                                                              9

                                                                    2

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                                                                                                                3

                                                                                                                      6

                                                                                                                            9

                                                                                                                                    2

                                                                                                                                           5

                                                                                                                                                 8

                                                                                                                                                       1

                                                                                                                                                             4

                                                                                                                                                                   7

                                                                                                                                                                         0

                                                                                                                                                                                 3
                                         '7

                                               '7

                                                      '7

                                                            '7

                                                                  '8

                                                                          '8

                                                                                '8

                                                                                      '9

                                                                                            '9

                                                                                                  '9

                                                                                                        '0

                                                                                                              '0

                                                                                                                    '0

                                                                                                                          '0

                                                                                                                                  '1

                                                                                                                                         '1

                                                                                                                                               '1

                                                                                                                                                     '2

                                                                                                                                                           '2

                                                                                                                                                                 '2

                                                                                                                                                                       '3

                                                                                                                                                                               '3
to 29, 30 to 34, and 35 to 39. This                                Source: Sw anson, using MT Vital Statistics and Census Bureau past data, 2009
analysis yielded a regression
equation treating births as a         A peak in births occurred in 1980 coinciding with the high year for births by baby boomers living in
function of persons in each of        the county and as these boomers aged the birth count fell, hitting a bottom in 1997. The recent rise
these age groups over time and        in births is now accounting for the rise in the county’s youngest children. However, the current
this is used in “predicting” births   rise in births is expected to peak in around 2011 before declining once again, hitting another
both in the past and in the future    bottom sometime between 2025 and 2027.
(red).
Past and Projected                   10,000
                                                                   Past & Projected Under 10 Population in Missoula County, 1970-2030

Patterns of Growth and
Change in Missoula                    9,000

County’s Under 20
                                      8,000
Population
                                                                                                                                                             '19
The chart in the upper right          7,000
                                                                                                                                                    '14
shows past and projected
                                                                               '85                     '93
numbers of persons in the             6,000                                                                                                                                          '29
county historically for the period                                                                                          '03
                                                                                                                    '99
from 1970 to 2008 and as                                                 '82                                                                                                   0 to 4 yrs
                                      5,000
projected into the future through
2030. The lower chart shows the                                                                                                                                                5 to 9 yrs
same estimates for persons            4,000
between 10 and 20. The data
used here are 5-year age              3,000
groupings rather than 10-year
                                           0

                                                 3

                                                       6

                                                               9

                                                                     2

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                                                                                        1

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                                                                                                                0

                                                                                                                        3

                                                                                                                              6

                                                                                                                                    9

                                                                                                                                          2

                                                                                                                                                5

                                                                                                                                                       8

                                                                                                                                                             1

                                                                                                                                                                     4

                                                                                                                                                                           7

                                                                                                                                                                                 0
                                         '7

                                               '7

                                                     '7

                                                             '7

                                                                   '8

                                                                         '8

                                                                               '8

                                                                                      '9

                                                                                                 '9

                                                                                                        '9

                                                                                                              '0

                                                                                                                      '0

                                                                                                                            '0

                                                                                                                                  '0

                                                                                                                                        '1

                                                                                                                                              '1

                                                                                                                                                     '1

                                                                                                                                                           '2

                                                                                                                                                                   '2

                                                                                                                                                                         '2

                                                                                                                                                                               '3
groupings.
                                                                     Past & Projected 10 to 19 Population in Missoula Co., 1970 - 2035
The under 5 population hit a
                                     10,000
peak in 1985 before falling back
to a low in 1999, but has been
                                      9,000                                                                                                                                          '29
rising since and is expected to
continue doing so through 2014,
                                      8,000                                                                     '98
which will refill the pipeline of
                                                                                                                                                                         '24
young children into the school                                     '79
                                      7,000                                                                                                         '14
system. The population 5 to 9
                                                                                                              '97
peaked in 1993 before falling to                       '74
a low in 2003. It is expected to      6,000                                                '89                                          '09

peak again in 2019.
                                      5,000                                          '87
                                                                                                                                                                           10 to 14 yrs
Children at ages between 10 and
14 hit a peak in 1997, but their      4,000
                                                                                                                                                                           15 to 19 yrs
decline is expected to end in
about 2009 before rising again        3,000
throughout the next decade.
                                          0

                                                 3

                                                       6

                                                               9

                                                                     2

                                                                           5

                                                                                 8

                                                                                        1

                                                                                                   4

                                                                                                          7

                                                                                                                0

                                                                                                                        3

                                                                                                                              6

                                                                                                                                    9

                                                                                                                                          2

                                                                                                                                                5

                                                                                                                                                       8

                                                                                                                                                             1

                                                                                                                                                                     4

                                                                                                                                                                           7

                                                                                                                                                                                 0
                                        '7

                                               '7

                                                     '7

                                                             '7

                                                                   '8

                                                                         '8

                                                                               '8

                                                                                      '9

                                                                                                 '9

                                                                                                        '9

                                                                                                              '0

                                                                                                                      '0

                                                                                                                            '0

                                                                                                                                  '0

                                                                                                                                        '1

                                                                                                                                              '1

                                                                                                                                                     '1

                                                                                                                                                           '2

                                                                                                                                                                   '2

                                                                                                                                                                         '2

                                                                                                                                                                               '3
Past and Projected MCPS                                                   Past & Projected School Enrollment Levels for MCPS, 1990-2030
                                       5,000
School Enrollment Levels
– Elementary, Middle                   4,500

School, and High School                4,000
                                                                                        '01                                                                                             '26
                                                      '91                                                                                              '17

These grade level enrollment           3,500
                                                                                                                                           '14
levels and projections are                                                                                         '08
                                       3,000                                                                                                                                            Elementary (K-5)
combined to show how overall
enrollment at each of the three                                                                                                                                                         Middle Sch (6-8)
                                       2,500
major school types with MCPS
                                                                                                                                                                                        High Sch (9-12)
are expected to change going
                                       2,000                  '94
into the future. The upper chart                                                                                                                                               '23
shows levels for each since 1990       1,500                                                                               '10
through 2008 and as projected
through 2030.                          1,000

Elementary school enrollment fell       500
from a peak in 1991 at 3,871 to a
                                            0

                                                  2

                                                          4

                                                                6

                                                                      8

                                                                             0

                                                                                    2

                                                                                            4

                                                                                                      6

                                                                                                             8

                                                                                                                    0

                                                                                                                             2

                                                                                                                                     4

                                                                                                                                           6

                                                                                                                                                   8

                                                                                                                                                           0

                                                                                                                                                                   2

                                                                                                                                                                           4

                                                                                                                                                                                   6

                                                                                                                                                                                          8

                                                                                                                                                                                                 0
                                          '9

                                                '9

                                                        '9

                                                              '9

                                                                    '9

                                                                           '0

                                                                                  '0

                                                                                          '0

                                                                                                    '0

                                                                                                           '0

                                                                                                                  '1

                                                                                                                           '1

                                                                                                                                   '1

                                                                                                                                         '1

                                                                                                                                                 '1

                                                                                                                                                         '2

                                                                                                                                                                 '2

                                                                                                                                                                         '2

                                                                                                                                                                                 '2

                                                                                                                                                                                        '2

                                                                                                                                                                                               '3
low of 3,186 in 2008 – a decline of
685 students. This is expected to                                         Past & Projected Overall School Enrollment by MCPS, 1990-2030
climb back to nearly 3,900 in 2017     12,000
and then begin a gradual decline
before leveling out sometime
                                       10,000
after 2030. Middle school
enrollment, which peaked at 1,986
students in 1994, will fall to about    8,000
1,474 by 2010, and then rise back
again to around 1,860 students                                                                                    High Sch (9-12)
                                        6,000
around 2023.
                                        4,000                                                                    Middle Sch (6-8)
High school enrollment, which hit
a peak in 2001 at 4,098 students,
will continue to fall to a level of     2,000
                                                                                                                 Elem entary (K-5)
about 3,340 in 2014 before rising
again to a level of about 4,160 in         0
around 2026.
                                            0

                                                  2

                                                          4

                                                                6

                                                                      8

                                                                              0

                                                                                     2

                                                                                                4

                                                                                                       6

                                                                                                              8

                                                                                                                       0

                                                                                                                               2

                                                                                                                                       4

                                                                                                                                               6

                                                                                                                                                         8

                                                                                                                                                                 0

                                                                                                                                                                         2

                                                                                                                                                                                 4

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                                                                                                                                                                                                8

                                                                                                                                                                                                       0
                                          '9

                                                '9

                                                        '9

                                                              '9

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                                                                            '0

                                                                                   '0

                                                                                              '0

                                                                                                     '0

                                                                                                            '0

                                                                                                                     '1

                                                                                                                             '1

                                                                                                                                     '1

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                                                                                                                                                       '1

                                                                                                                                                               '2

                                                                                                                                                                       '2

                                                                                                                                                                               '2

                                                                                                                                                                                       '2

                                                                                                                                                                                              '2

                                                                                                                                                                                                     '3
                                                                Missoula County's 40 to 49 Population, Past & Projected, 1970-2030
Past and Projected                  12,000

Change in the Middle
Age Adult Population of             10,000                                                                                                                                          '26
                                                                                                                                                                    '21
Missoula Co.
The charts at the right show         8,000                                                            '96            '03
past and projected numbers of
adults in Missoula County who                                                                                                      '09          '14
                                                                                                                                                                                40 to 44 yrs
are in their 40s and 50s, dating     6,000
back to 1970 and as projected
through 2030. The top chart                                                                                                                                                     45 to 49 yrs
shows persons 40 to 44 and 45        4,000
to 49. The bottom one shows
persons 50 to 54 and 55 to 59.
                                     2,000
Those 40 to 44 last peaked in ’96
                                          0

                                                3

                                                      6

                                                            9

                                                                  2

                                                                        5

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                                                                                                                3

                                                                                                                       6

                                                                                                                              9

                                                                                                                                     2

                                                                                                                                            5

                                                                                                                                                   8

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                                                                                                                                                                                        0
after increasing rapidly in the
                                        '7

                                              '7

                                                    '7

                                                          '7

                                                                '8

                                                                      '8

                                                                            '8

                                                                                  '9

                                                                                          '9

                                                                                                '9

                                                                                                       '0

                                                                                                              '0

                                                                                                                     '0

                                                                                                                            '0

                                                                                                                                   '1

                                                                                                                                          '1

                                                                                                                                                 '1

                                                                                                                                                            '2

                                                                                                                                                                   '2

                                                                                                                                                                              '2

                                                                                                                                                                                      '3
‘80s and early ‘90s. Those 45 to
49 peaked in 2003 also after
                                                                Missoula County's 50 to 59 Population, Past & Projected, 1970-2030
large increases. Growth then        12,000
flattened for both these groups
of 40-year olds, but will rise
again in the next two decades.      10,000

The number of persons in their
50s (lower chart) have been          8,000                                                                                         '08          '13
rising and will continue to do so
                                                                                                                                                                  '19           '24
for a few more years before
peaking and then declining for a     6,000
time before rising again.
                                                                                                                                                                                50 to 54 yrs
                                     4,000
                                                                                                                                                                                55 to 59 yrs
                                                                                    '89
                                     2,000
                                          0

                                                3

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                                                                                                        '0

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                                                                                                                             '0

                                                                                                                                    '1

                                                                                                                                           '1

                                                                                                                                                      '1

                                                                                                                                                             '2

                                                                                                                                                                        '2

                                                                                                                                                                                '2

                                                                                                                                                                                          '3
Past and Projected                                               Missoula County's 60 to 69 Population, Past & Projected, 1970-2030
Change in Older Age                  11,000

Adults in Missoula Co.
                                      9,000
The charts at the right show
past and projected numbers of                                                                                                                     '18
adults in Missoula County in                                                                                                                                  '23
their 60s and 70s, dating back to     7,000
1970 and as projected through
2030. The top chart shows
adults 60 to 64 and 65 to 69 and      5,000                                                                                                                         60 to 64 yrs
the bottom one shows adults 70
to 74 and 75 to 79.
                                                                                                                                                                    65 to 69 yrs
                                      3,000
Beginning around 2000 and                                                                                    '01
2001, sharp increases are now
occurring in the number of
persons in the 60s and this           1,000
precipitous rise will continue
                                          0

                                                 3

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                                                                   2

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through the next decade. The
number of persons in their early
50s will rise from about 3,000 to                                 Missoula County's 70 to 79 Population, Past & Projected, 1970-2030
over 8,000 by around 2018.           10,000
Those in their late 50s will rise
from less than 3,000 to almost
                                      8,000
8,000 by 2023. This same
pattern of growth will occur with                                                                                                                                          '28
persons in their 70s, but later in    6,000
time with their growth sharply
increasing in only a few more
years and rising into the latter      4,000
part of the decade after next.
                                                                                                                                                                     70 to 74 yrs
The numbers of persons both at        2,000                                                                                          '11
ages from 70 to 74 and 75 to 79                                                                                                                                      75 to 79 yrs
will increase from around 2,000
                                         0
to nearly 7,000 each.
                                           0

                                                 3

                                                       6

                                                             9

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Persons 80 and Older in                                  Missoula County's 80 and Older Population, Past & Projected, 1970-2030
Missoula Co. – Past and            8,000
Projected
The very oldest segment of the     7,000

area’s population – those 80
and older – has been relatively
                                   6,000
small in number throughout
much of the area’s past. Those
80 to 84 and 85 and older both
                                   5,000
numbered less than 1,000 as
recently as the late ‘80s. They
had both grown to around           4,000
1,500 by 2000 and will continue
at this level until about the
middle of the next decade or       3,000
around 2016. At this time they
will begin to increase in
numbers much more rapidly          2,000
than in the past.
                                                                                                                                                 '21               80 to 84 yrs

Roughly between 2016 and           1,000
2030 the number of persons in                                                                                                                                      85 or older

the county between the ages of
80 and 84 will rise from around       0
1,600 to over 4,600, an increase
                                       0

                                             3

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                                                                                                                           2

                                                                                                                                 5

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of 3,000. And the number of                                        Source: Sw anson, using historical estim ates by the U.S. Census Bureau
persons 85 and over will rise
from roughly 1,600 in 2020 to
over 3,800 by 2030.
Change in Population
by Age in Missoula                             Past & Projected Population Change by 10-Yr. Age Group Over Time, Missoula County
County for 10-Year             6,000

Periods, Past and
Projected
                               5,000
The chart at the right
translates these annual
estimates of population        4,000
change by age into changes
that have occurred in the
past and can be expected to                                                                                                        0-10
occur in the future, under     3,000
                                          2,674                                                                                    10-19
these projections.
                                                                                                                                   20-29
In the ‘90s the 10-year age    2,000
                                                                                                                                   30-39
groups growing by the                                                                        1,573                                 40-49
most in Missoula County                                         1,242
were persons in their 40s                                                                                        1,038             50-59
and 50s, which were “baby      1,000                                                       813                                     60-69
boomers”. Both of these
                                                                                                                                   70-79
groups increased in
numbers by more than                                                                                                               "80 +
                                   0
4,000 persons. In that
boomers currently are                             '90-'00                  '00-'10                   '10-'20             '20-'30
mainly in their 50s and 60s,
                                        -657
this is translating into       -1,000                                                                          -806
disproportionate growth in                                        -1,104
these age groups in the
current decade and will
                               -2,000
translate into
disproportionate growth                                                        Source: Sw anson, 2009
among persons in their 60s
and 70s in the next decade.
             Missoula’s Emerging Health Care Cluster
                                          Major Hospitals
                  St. Patrick Hospital & Health Sciences Center and Community Medical Center
Affiliates – Big Sky Surgery Center, Providence Surgery Center, Montana Neuroscience Institute, International
 Heart Institute, Montana Cancer Center, Advanced Imaging, Broadway Imaging, Women’s Health Center, etc.


           Major Providers of Health Care Related Technical Services
                             Missoula Radiology, Missoula Anesthesiology, etc.


                             Ambulatory Health Care Services
  Western Montana Clinic, Missoula Bone & Joint, Northern Rockies Orthopedics, Rocky Mountain Optical
            Center, and the many other doctor and dentist offices throughout the community


                   Nursing Homes and Residential Care Facilities
   Facilities providing nursing care throughout Missoula that will greatly increase as the population ages


          Social Assistance Programs assisting in Community Health

								
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