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					Climate Scenarios in Vulnerability, Impact and
          Adaptation Assessments:
       MAGICC/SCENGEN overview

        AIACC Scenarios Training Course
           Norwich, 16-25 April 2002
                Dr Mike Hulme




                       The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
                    It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
                              and receives additional support from the DTI
MAGICC/SCENGEN 2.4, IPCC SAR Version


• Observed data – four regions – 0.5deg resolution
• IS92 emissions, plus preliminary SRES emissions
• 14 GCM patterns, with/without aerosols
• IPCC Second Assessment version of MAGICC
• Changes in average monthly/seasonal climate




                             The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
                          It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
                                    and receives additional support from the DTI
 MAGICC/SCENGEN 3.0, IPCC TAR Version

• Observed data – all land areas – 10’ resolution
• Final (35) SRES emissions scenarios
• SRES-forced GCM patterns, with aerosols
• IPCC Third Assessment version of MAGICC (Sarah Raper)
• Changes in interannual variance as well as means
• Diagnostic tools (scatter plots) to explore uncertainty for
user regions

   What’s the difference? $100,000 which we are seeking!

                             The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
                          It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
                                    and receives additional support from the DTI
         Purpose of MAGICC/SCENGEN
MAGICC
• Consistent scenarios of global CO2, T and SL
• Linked to IPCC emissions and IPCC science

SCENGEN
• Exploratory tool regarding regional climate response
patterns
• Allows a wide range of uncertainties to be quantified
• Enables generation of 1st order regional climate scenarios
• Combines GCM changes with observed climate fields

                               The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
                            It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
                                      and receives additional support from the DTI
   The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
          and receives additional support from the DTI
                     Pattern-scaling


Step 1: Define master pattern from GCM in such a way as to maximise
signal/noise ratio …

e.g. 2071-2100 mean temperature minus 1961-1990 mean temperature
(from an ensemble of n simulations)
e.g. fit a linear regression through 1961-2100 time series data



Key assumption: anthropogenic climate change signal can be
adequately defined from climate models


                                The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
                             It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
                                       and receives additional support from the DTI
                     Pattern-scaling


Step 2: Normalise the master pattern to 1C global warming

Key assumption: the anthropogenic climate change patterns are a
function of global temperature

Step 3: Re-scale the normalised master pattern by the global warming
of the relevant emissions scenario and time-slice required (obtained
from MAGICC)

Key assumption: the anthropogenic climate change patterns are
independent of the history of greenhouse gas forcing


                                The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
                             It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
                                       and receives additional support from the DTI

				
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