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									Science and Technology Infusion Plan
        Fire Weather Services
           Paula Davidson

          NWS S&T Committee
           September 17, 2002
              Rev 11/14/02

• Team Composition
• Vision/Benefits
• Goals/Targets
• Key Information Gaps
• Key Solutions
• Outstanding R & D Needs
• Summary
    Fire Weather Services
             Team Composition

• Rusty Billingsley (NWS/OCWWS)

• Phillip Bothwell (NWS/NCEP)

• Paula Davidson (NWS/OST)

• John McGinley (OAR)

            Fire Weather Services
                      Vision / Benefits

                   Eliminate weather-related wildland fire
                   Reduce fire management costs and health
                         impacts, with more timely and accurate

Increasing lead times for Red Flag / critical fire weather helps
  firefighting and emergency response
     • Tactical efficiency improvements: Each 1% reduction in
       average time of Type-I deployments saves ~ $10 M
     • Strategic efficiency improvements: Reducing escaped fires
       by 1 each year saves ~ $12.5 M
                    Fire Weather Services
                            Goals/Targets to FY 12
  Performance Measure:                 Current                FY07 Goal            FY12 Target
      Existing GPRA                     Skill

          Proposed                     Current         FY07 Target                FY12 Target
Red Flag Warning LT                    8.7 hr**                 14 hr                    24 hr
Red Flag Warning POD                    90%**                   91%                       92%
Spot Forecast element                     NA              Within 30%               Within 10%
accuracy (T, winds, RH)                                  national MAE             national MAE
Fire Wx Zone Forecast                     NA              Within 20%               Within 5%
accuracy (T, winds, RH)                                  national MAE             national MAE
Extend daily national fire              2 day                 thru day 5            thru day 10
weather outlook
National fire wx outlook:                 NA                    80%                       85%
POD critical fire wx at day 1
                                NA= not presently collected        ** WR only; national statistics not available
                 Fire Weather Services
                    Key Information Gaps

                                 • Inadequate density of
                                   observations – especially remote
                                 • Inadequate time and space
                                   resolution for fire weather and
                                   smoke forecasts
                                 • Insufficient forecast/guidance
                                   product coverage
                                 • Insufficient verification
                                 • Insufficient coordination and
                                   dissemination from obs to models
                                   to forecast products
                                 • Need to convey forecast
               Fire Weather Services
                           Key S&T Solutions
       Gap                     Solution                          Impact
Density of            • Expand availability of         increase in forecast
observations–           remote and incident-           accuracy: spot, fire weather,
especially remote       specific obs                   on-scene support

                      • Assimilate available surface   increase in forecast
                        obs (e.g. Fire Raws);          accuracy: spot, fire weather,
Time and space          incident-specific              on-scene support
resolution for fire     observations
weather and           • 8km WRF; HRW 3km; 3km
smoke forecasts         NMM (6 locations)
                      • NDFD 1.5km; gridded MOS

Forecast/guidance     • Extend fire wx outlook to      increase critical fire wx POD
products coverage       day-3 and beyond; GFS
                                                       maintain high RFW POD
                      • SMART TOOLS: e.g. RFW          across the Nation
                        condition search
Verification          • Implement systematic,          increase forecast accuracy,
                        automated verification         esp. spot forecasts
       Fire Weather Services
         Key S&T Solutions (Continued)

        Gap                   Solution                    Impact
Coordination and        • Advanced IT              increase in operational
dissemination of          infrastructure/ mobile   use of on-scene
information: from obs     connectivity             weather and forecast
to models to forecast                              information

                        • Probabilistic forecast
Convey forecast
uncertainty             • Advanced
                                                   increase operational
                          Ensembles: SREF
                                                   utility of forecasts
                          12km and Global

                        • Training/outreach
                Fire Weather Services
                          Key S&T Solutions
                 Ingest Surface Observations

Observations                                Ingest Targeted
                                        GFS            4DDA
                                        8km WRF         Advanced Ensembles
                                              Chem-WRF             3km HRW         OTE
Forecast         standardized   Automated
                 verification   Verification Dec Assist Tools                      DTE

                                 NDFD                                              R&D
                 Adv comms for IMETs

                02   03   04    05     06      07     08      09    10   11   12
                 Fire Weather Services
                      Outstanding R&D Needs
• Improve high-resolution prediction methods for complex terrain
• Develop methods for verifying spot forecasts, given flexible, variable
  observational data
• Improve methods to ingest incident-specific observations into high-
  resolution forecast models and guidance
• Improve understanding of convection as related to critical fire weather
• Develop methods for forecasting, verifying dry thunderstorms
• Improve methods to forecast smoke impacts
• Develop probabilistic methods for fire weather forecasting
• Couple fire-behavior to fire weather models
             Fire Weather Services
                               Summary                                  Vision
                                                              Eliminate Weather-related
                                                              Wildland Fire Death/Injury
                                                                    Reduce Costs

                                                                 R&D Needs
                                                        • Improve high-resolution
                                                          prediction in complex terrain
                                                        • Develop methods to verify spot
• Improve Model                                           forecasts
  Resolution and                                        • Improve methods to ingest incident-
  Accuracy                                                specific observations
• New and Improved                                      • Improve understanding of convection
  Forecast Techniques                                     in critical fire weather
• Integrate Observations   • Probabilistic Techniques   • Improve methods to forecast dry
• Improved coordination/                                  thunderstorms; smoke impacts
                           • Coupled Hazards Models
  dissemination                                         • Develop probabilistic forecast
                           • Ingest Targeted Obs.
                                                          methods for fire weather

   2002              2007                 2012                           2020
Fire Weather Services

     Printed      9/10/02                                                                                                                                   Updated         9/10/02
                                                   S&T Advances to Support Fireweather Goals (GPRA and Other)

    Chart Key                                                                                                                                            R&D Needs Document
Year = Projected Implementation Year
Color = Current Aquistion Phase: Green = Deployment (DEP), Blue = Operational Development & Acquisition, Yellow = Demonstration
                                     Red = Research and Development, Hatching = Objective

                                                2002           2003            2004             2005             2006          2007              2008            2010            2012
Surface Obs:
Remote area;      RAWS                                        Ingest
mesonets          Coop Mod-Temp/Precip Sensor                                                                                                               8000 Stations
Targeted Obs
NEXRAD             ORPG                      Higher res
                   ORDA                                                                    Higher Res: .25 km
                   Dual Pole
Lightning          Total Lightning Detection
Satellite          All-HAZARDS (ABBA)           Detect
                   Volcanic Ash                                              Detect
                   Winds                                                   Convective
                   MODIS                                                                                                                                                    Wind,T,RH
Data Assimilation/Numerical Prediction
Global             Global Forecast System (GFS)                                                             GFS: 45km L64/384h/4x                           L-A-O 35 km
North America      RUC                                         10km
                   WRF/RUC                                                                                                     8km
                   ETA                                                        10 km
                   WRF                                                                                          8km                              6km
High Res. Window WRF HRW                      NMM 8km                       WRF 8km                           WRF 6km                          WRF 5km                        WRF 3km
                   Local-Scale                                             4km (6 sites)                     3km (6 sites)                       3km
Ensembles                                                                                                                                                     SREF12km
                  Volcanic Ash             VAFTAD/GFS 191 km
      Hazards     Nuclear/Bio/Chemical      Hysplit/Eta12                                                       WRF all
                  Air Quality                                                  IOC                                           WRF AQ
Forecast Techniques/Product Generation
Decision Aids     Automated indicator search                                                                             Product Generation
                  SAFE FIRE??                                                                                Local Applic
                  IFPS                                                                     3-D Parameters
Products          Extended FireWx Outlook                     CONUS
                  RFW                                                                                        Local Model
                  Spot Forecasts                                                                                                              Local Model
                  Firewx forecasts                                                                                                               WRF
Techniques        Verification                            National                           Automated
                                                          verification                          verifc
                  Probabilistic                           Nat. outlook                     Techniques
                  Post-processing                                                           Gridded MOS
                  Advanced Interactive on-
                  site processing                             CONUS
                  Adv on-site support                     IMET trning                                       Techniques
                  Prob Forecasting                                                         Techniques
Examples for spot, fire weather forecast elements based on 2001
national MAE. (see below) Fire wx element accuracy targets tagged
to reflect zone accuracy.
             Proposed           Current           FY 07 Target                FY 12 Target
                                  2001                  Example                    Example
Red Flag Warning
    Lead Time                   8.7 hr **     14 hr                       24 hr
    POD                          90% **       91%                         92%
Spot Forecasts
    T      max/min                 NA     within 30%       3.4 deg    within 10%       2.9 deg
    Winds (speed, direction)       NA     of national 3.6 kts, 34 deg of national 3.1 kts, 29 deg
    RH max/min                     NA     MAE               13%       MAE               11%
Fire weather zone forecasts
    T      max/min                 NA     within 20%       3.1 deg    within 5% of     2.7 deg
    Winds (speed, direction)       NA     of national 3.4 kts, 31 deg national     2.8 kts, 27 deg
    RH max/min                     NA     MAE               12%       MAE               11%
National daily fire weather outlook
    Out to day                      2           5                          10
    Critical fire weather:
    POD at day 1                   NA         80%                         85%

NA: not presently collected
** WR only; national statistics not available
MAE: Mean Absolute Error

EXAMPLE: Relationship of fire wx element forecast accuracy to national forecast accuracy
Current National MAE (zone                           Guidance                     Additional
forecasts):                             Model        (AVN MOS) Forecasts 30% error
T max, day 1                                         2.6 deg F                    3.4 deg F
Winds 24-hr                                          2.8kts, 26deg                3.6 kts, 34 deg
RH, day 1                                    11.10%                          10%            13%
Dewpoint, day 1                                      3.5 deg                      4.6 deg
Proposed Performance Measure:
      Red Flag Warning
                                           RED FLAG WARNING Lead Time

                           Actual (WR) Lead Time         Theshold Lead Time        Objective Lead Time


    Lead Time (Hours)




                                99   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07    08   09   10   11   12
Proposed Performance Measure:
      Red Flag Warning
                         RED FLAG WARNING POD
                        Theshold POD        Actual (WR) POD









              99   00   01    02       03     04    05        06   07

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