Technology planning & Technology Foresight by LK2bg5

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									Identification




       Technology Management
         Activities and Tools
Contents

   Definitions
   The use of technology foresight
   Identification processes at the firm level
Definitions

   Technology planning
   Technology forecasting
   Technology foresight
   Technology roadmapping
   Intelligence
Foresight / Forecast
     Technology foresight
   Forecast is prediction of future.
   A bundle of systematic efforts to look ahead
    and to choose more effectively.
   There is not a single future.
   Not a planning, but start of a planning
   Feedback processes between capability
    and need for decision-making.
   Center on changes in functional capacity
    and/or on the timing and significance of an
    innovation.
Linking National Foresight to Company Action


             • Market and technological trends
               for broad industry areas
             • Priorities & policy recommendations

                              • Market and technological trends
                                for specific sectors
                              • Priorities & policy recommendations
                              • Support


                                                 • Market and technological trends
                                                   facing company
                                                 • Strategy
                                                 • Actions
Technology roadmapping
Two basic forms


  1. Planning                 2. Forecasting
     - How to reach a goal?        - What opportunities could arise?

                              •   Technology focus
   • Market focus
                              •   Looking for opportunities
   • Assumes product market
                              •   Open ended
     opportunity
                              •   Divergent
   • Deterministic
   • Convergent
   • Customer driven
Discuss:
   Forecasting is possible
   (advantages of forecasting)

   Forecasting is NOT possible
   (disadvantages of forecasting)
 Some objectives at the macro level:

(a) Generate information for strategic
  technology policy;
(b) Provide SME's with advance
  information about the possibilities for
  application of new technologies;
(c) Stimulate the creation of networks
  between actors in industry, research
  and the educational system who are
  involved in a defined technology area.
    Advantages of forecasting/ foresight at
    the micro level:
   Wide-ranging surveillance of the total
    environment to identify development
   Estimating the time scale for important events
   To identify and evaluate market opportunities or
    threats; reduce uncertainty
   Major reorientation of a company policy.
   Improving operational decision making
   To develop plans, strategies of policies
   To assist R&D management
   To evaluate new products or processes
Disadvantages

   Time
   Cost
   Mis-guidance
   Information overload
Historical development

   1940s, 1950s, US Air force
   1960s, new methods
   1970s lose of popularity
   1990s revival!!!
   21st century
Discuss


   Why did TF studies’ popularity increase
    in the 1990s?
    Developments in the technology
    foresight studies
   Globalization
   Recognition of national or regional innovation
    systems
   Increasing environmental, economic, and
    social problems
   Trade-offs any policy portfolio requires
   Increase in the number of actors and
    interventions in politics
   Limited R&D budgets
   Evolutionary economics, Sociology of science
   Complex technologies (interdisciplinary dev.)
Foresight study types:

   Comprehensiveness vis-à-vis
    selectiveness of the foresight approach
   Science versus industry orientation
   Analytic versus action-oriented targets
Basics of foresight?
         Time
         Object
         Method
         Data
The criteria to group foresight
methods:

   human participation in the foresighting
    process (expert opinion, scenario
    building, Delphi)
   use of computer models or other
    analytic tools (modeling)
   the degree to which conditions of the
    future are based on conditions of the
    present (scanning/ monitoring, trend
    extrapolation)
New methods

   Bibliometric/ text-mining software
   Datamining - CRM
   TRIZ (Theory of the Solution of
    Inventive Problems)
   Stochastic forecasting
   Selection capabilities, learning capabilities,
    adaptation capabilities
   Problem areas: opportunity identification,
    risk perception, anticipating surprises.
    – Ex: DEC founder, 1977: there is no reason for any
      individual to have a computer in their home.
   Need for: Multidimensional and multiple
    perspective-oriented surprise anticipation
    models.
   Need for: people with the required and
    appropriate mindset and visualization
    capabilities.
Organizational design

   Technology intelligence units
   Internal integration
   Variety
   Budget allocation for all sorts of projects
   Impact assessment, cost analysis
Technology planning at the
firm level
Expected benefits

   Enhancing communication
   Greater concentration on the long-term
   Means of coordination
   Creating a level of consensus
   Generating commitment
Identification Process at the firm level:

   Technology auditing
   Forecasting technology, markets and
    external environment
   Identification of organizational
    capabilities
   Documenting and disseminating the
    information
            Technology Audit
                Potential        Current              Current        Potential


                         Technologies      Products             Markets


Current




Potential




          Source: Lindsay, J. (2000).
Market-Technology Matrix for Analysing Technical and
Product Competence

Technical                               Market competence
     comp
     etence




                                        High                Medium    Low




              High cutting edge         Star                Success   Doubt


              Medium state-of-the-art   Success             Doubt     Failure


              Low obsolete              Doubt               Failure   Disaster




                         Source: Adapted from Holt (1992)
                                                                    Source: EIRMA, 1998
         Technology roadmapping
         Relationship to the strategic planning process


    Market Information



      Product-Market analysis


              Product-Technology              Road Map    Defined      Project
              Options Evaluation              Creation    Targets     Proposals


     Technology Assessment


Identification of Technology
    Available / Feasible
             Technology roadmapping                                          Source: EIRMA, 1998


             Generic format                                         Time


  Market                                M1                            M2



                                P1                      P2                    P3
 Product
                                                                              P4


Technology              T1                  T3

                                            T2                          T4


   R&D          RD 1          RD 2               RD 4                 RD 6

programme                            RD 2                      RD 6

                                     Capital investment / finance
Resources                                                    Supply chain
                                                                             Staff / skills
Discuss:
 Does TF change with the
 type of technology

 or type of firm?
                              Identification




    Technology                                                Organizational
                               Forecast reports
       audit                                                     analysis



   List of technologies and       Forecasts on technology,      List of resource base and
   their assessment                   Product, PEST                   Org capabilities




                                                                            All dept.
                                    Documentation
                                                                                  Output


Selection          Acquisition          Exploitation         Learning            Protection

								
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