NFI UK 25-year forecast of softwood availability (synthesis report by d56FZ3E

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									         25-year forecast of softwood availability (synthesis report)




Tables




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                             25-year forecast of softwood availability (synthesis report)


                                             Caption

Table   1    UK 25-year forecast of softwood timber availability for FC/FS estate and Private sector estate.
Table   2    Breakdown of the forecast volume by country, top diameter class and forecast period (includes
Table   3   (percentage of spruce is included in table 2)
Table   4    Overdue timber volume and area for GB at 31 March 2011.
Table   5    Potential timber volumes arising from FC land sales (obs).
Table   6    Clearfelled land in Great Britain as at 31 March 2011.
Table   7    25-year forecast of average annual standing coniferous volume.


Figure   1   UK 25-year timber production forecast for FC/FSNI and private sector
Figure   2   The impact of different harvesting scenarios upon the 25-year timber potential for the Private
Figure   3   25-year forecast of average annual standing coniferous volume.
Figure   4   25-year forecast of standing volume, net increment and production - FC estate.
Figure   5   25-year forecast of standing volume, net increment and production - Private sector estate.
thesis report)


                           Link          Graph Tab

                 Table 1'!A1
                 Table 2'!A1

                 Table   4'!A1
                 Table   5'!A1
                 Table   6'!A1
                 Table   7'!A1


                 Figure   1 Data'!A1      Figure   1
                 Figure   2 data'!A1      Figure   2
                 Figure   3 data'!A1      Figure   3
                 Figure   4-5 data'!A1    Figure   4
                 Figure   4-5 data'!A1    Figure   5
Return to index page

Table 1 UK 25-year timber forecast of softwood timber availability for FC/FS estate and Private sector estate.

                                             2012-16                                 2017-21
                                    FC/FS        Private sector             FC/FS
                 Country
                                   volume        volume                    volume
                                                             SE    %
                                (000 m3 obs) (000 m3 obs)               (000 m3 obs)
           England                      1,305         2,184         6           1,183
           Scotland                     3,749         4,614         6           3,568
           Wales                          958           793        19             979
           Great Britain                6,013         7,591         5           5,730
           Northern Ireland               579             26        -             572
           United Kingdom               6,592         7,617         -           6,302
for FC/FS estate and Private sector estate.

                 2017-21                                 2022-26                                2027-31
                      Private sector            FC/FS        Private sector            FC/FS        Private sector
                      volume                   volume        volume                   volume        volume
                                  SE   %                                 SE   %
                   (000 m3 obs)             (000 m3 obs) (000 m3 obs)              (000 m3 obs) (000 m3 obs)
                           2,626        7           1,110         2,450        7           1,072         2,804
                           5,917        6           3,417         7,796        6           3,305         9,131
                           1,025       17             893         1,008       18             795           713
                           9,569        5           5,420       11,255         5           5,172       12,648
                               22       -             529             25       -             519             44
                           9,591        -           5,949       11,280         -           5,691       12,692
2027-31                                2032-36
    Private sector            FC/FS        Private sector
                             volume        volume
                SE %                                   SE   %
                          (000 m3 obs) (000 m3 obs)
                      7             985         2,637        9
                      6           2,930         8,213        6
                     19             927           791       18
                      5           4,841       11,641         5
                      -             458             44       -
                      -           5,299       11,685         -
Return to index

Table 2 Breakdown of the forecast volume by country, top diameter class and forecast period.

                                                  2012-16
                                 FC/FS           Private sector          FC/FS/PS
          Top diameter          volume         volume
                                                             SE %        % Spruce
          class              (000 m3 obs)   (000 m3 obs)
          England
          7-14cm                      301            308             5        49
          14-16cm                     111            120             5        51
          16-18cm                     111            137             6        50
          18-24cm                     304            496             7        44
          24-34cm                     273            638             9        34
          34-44cm                     110            260            10        25
          44-54cm                      53            112            11        22
          54+cm                        41            112            20        19
          Total                     1,305          2,184             6        39
          Scotland
          7-14cm                      909          1,046             4        70
          14-16cm                     392            388             5        73
          16-18cm                     402            403             5        74
          18-24cm                   1,066          1,225             8        75
          24-34cm                     707          1,076            10        73
          34-44cm                     178            299            12        63
          44-54cm                      63            108            16        55
          54+cm                        32             69            22        40
          Total                     3,749          4,614             6        71
          Wales
          7-14cm                     195              99        15            66
          14-16cm                     84              43        18            67
          16-18cm                     89              49        18            67
          18-24cm                    258             180        18            66
          24-34cm                    218             218        20            62
          34-44cm                     71              94        31            58
          44-54cm                     28              44        42            57
          54+cm                       15              68        75            70
          Total                      958             793        19            64
          Great Britain
          7-14cm                    1,405          1,453             3        65
          14-16cm                     587            550             4        68
          16-18cm                     603            588             4        68
          18-24cm                   1,629          1,902             6        67
          24-34cm                   1,198          1,932             7        60
          34-44cm                     359            653             8        49
          44-54cm                     143            264            11        42
          54+cm                        89            248            23        38
          Total                     6,013          7,591             5        62
          Northern Ireland
          7-14cm                       80              4             -         90
          14-16cm                      48              2             -         90
          16-18cm                      65              3             -         90
          18-24cm                     247             11             -         90
24-34cm           121       5    -   90
34-44cm            11       1    -   90
44-54cm             3       0    -   90
54+cm               4       0    -   90
Total             579      26    -   90
United Kingdom
7-14cm           1,485   1,458   -   66
14-16cm            635     553   -   69
16-18cm            667     591   -   69
18-24cm          1,875   1,913   -   69
24-34cm          1,319   1,937   -   61
34-44cm            370     654   -   49
44-54cm            146     264   -   42
54+cm               93     248   -   38
Total            6,592   7,617   -   63
ameter class and forecast period.

                                          2017-21                                                2022-26
                        FC/FS            Private sector          FC/FS/PS       FC/FS           Private sector
                       volume          volume                                  volume         volume
                                                     SE %        % Spruce
                    (000 m3 obs)    (000 m3 obs)                            (000 m3 obs)   (000 m3 obs)

                             215             263             7        48             179            222
                              91             113             7        50              78             98
                              96             137             7        49              83            125
                             281             543             7        45             256            541
                             281             824             8        40             278            817
                             119             379             9        34             123            352
                              56             169            11        31              59            156
                              44             198            22        43              54            139
                           1,183           2,626             7        42           1,110          2,450

                             749             944             5        75             649          1,061
                             345             424             5        78             309            496
                             365             495             6        79             336            614
                           1,029           1,633             7        81             982          2,328
                             767           1,598            10        78             779          2,361
                             205             509            12        70             230            619
                              69             189            15        64              84            186
                              38             123            22        56              49            130
                           3,568           5,917             6        77           3,417          7,796

                             196              92        16            68            169              89
                              81              41        18            72             74              42
                              84              56        19            73             79              52
                             249             241        19            76            233             231
                             230             372        21            74            207             329
                              80             143        23            67             73             134
                              34              53        31            59             32              62
                              24              28        36            65             26              68
                             979           1,025        17            72            893           1,008

                           1,161           1,298             4        69             998          1,372
                             517             579             4        72             461            636
                             546             688             5        73             498            791
                           1,559           2,416             5        73           1,470          3,100
                           1,278           2,794             7        67           1,263          3,508
                             404           1,031             8        57             426          1,105
                             159             412             9        50             175            404
                             107             349            15        50             129            338
                           5,730           9,569             5        67           5,420         11,255

                               69              3             -         90             57               3
                               40              2             -         90             35               2
                               56              2             -         90             50               2
                              240              9             -         90            220              10
 147       6    -   90    151        7
  11       0    -   90     10        1
   3       0    -   90      4        0
   5       0    -   90      3        0
 572      22    -   90    529       25

1,229   1,302   -   69   1,055    1,375
  557     580   -   72     496      638
  602     690   -   73     548      793
1,799   2,425   -   74   1,690    3,111
1,426   2,800   -   68   1,414    3,515
  415   1,031   -   57     436    1,106
  162     412   -   51     179      404
  112     349   -   51     132      338
6,302   9,591   -   68   5,949   11,280
2022-26                                                 2027-31                                          2032-36
Private sector          FC/FS/PS       FC/FS           Private sector          FC/FS/PS       FC/FS
                                      volume         volume                                  volume
            SE %        % Spruce                                   SE %        % Spruce
                                   (000 m3 obs)   (000 m3 obs)                            (000 m3 obs)

                    8        50             152            324             7        44            145
                    8        55              70            103             9        60             62
                    8        54              76            122             9        60             66
                    8        48             239            528             8        54            207
                    8        38             278            868             8        42            252
                   10        32             130            436             9        34            124
                   13        30              62            213            10        31             61
                   18        31              66            211            14        28             66
                    7        42           1,072          2,804             7        43            985

                    5        75             601          1,182             5        69             505
                    6        79             285            529             6        78             241
                    6        81             313            661             6        80             268
                    7        83             957          2,626             6        83             837
                    8        82             788          2,881             7        83             730
                   11        76             229            832             9        77             218
                   18        71              81            259            12        69              78
                   35        68              51            162            18        55              53
                    6        80           3,305          9,131             6        79           2,930

                 16          72            130              88        16            62            153
                 18          74             61              34        20            71             72
                 19          75             70              40        22            74             84
                 20          75            219             146        23            75            281
                 19          70            190             209        26            72            217
                 25          58             67             100        27            62             61
                 35          49             30              47        30            53             28
                 42          30             27              49        34            49             30
                 18          68            795             713        19            68            927

                    4        70             882         1,594              4        63             803
                    5        75             416           666              5        74             374
                    5        76             458           822              5        76             419
                    6        76           1,415         3,300              5        77           1,325
                    6        70           1,256         3,957              6        73           1,200
                    8        60             427         1,367              7        62             403
                   11        52             173           520              8        52             167
                   18        45             144           422             10        41             150
                    5        70           5,172        12,648              5        70           4,841

                    -         90             58              6             -         87             50
                    -         90             36              3             -         87             30
                    -         90             50              4             -         87             42
                    -         90            214             18             -         87            174
-   90    143       12    -   87    142
-   90     13        1    -   87     13
-   90      3        0    -   87      4
-   90      3        0    -   87      3
-   90    519       44    -   87    458

-   71     940    1,600   -   64     853
-   75     452      669   -   75     404
-   77     508      826   -   77     460
-   77   1,629    3,318   -   78   1,499
-   71   1,399    3,969   -   74   1,342
-   60     439    1,368   -   62     416
-   52     177      520   -   52     170
-   46     147      422   -   41     153
-   71   5,691   12,692   -   71   5,299
      2032-36
     Private sector          FC/FS/PS
   volume
                 SE %        % Spruce
(000 m3 obs)

         356             7        42
         113            12        54
         126            13        56
         501            13        54
         798            10        40
         382            10        30
         181            11        26
         179            14        22
       2,637             9        41

       1,058             5        61
         464             6        70
         573             6        73
       2,277             6        77
       2,660             7        77
         784             9        70
         244            13        59
         154            22        51
       8,213             6        73

         117        17            67
          51        21            73
          61        22            75
         224        22            78
         217        22            81
          67        25            79
          25        34            75
          29        38            67
         791        18            76

      1,532              4        58
        628              5        67
        760              6        70
      3,001              6        73
      3,675              6        70
      1,233              7        58
        450              8        48
        362             12        39
     11,641              5        66

           6             -         87
           3             -         87
           4             -         87
          16             -         87
   13    -   87
    1    -   87
    0    -   87
    0    -   87
   44    -   87

 1,537   -   58
   631   -   68
   764   -   71
 3,018   -   74
 3,689   -   70
 1,234   -   59
   451   -   48
   362   -   39
11,685   -   67
Return to index

Table 4 Overdue timber volume and area for GB at 31 March 2011.

                                   FC             Private sector
                  Country        volume       volume
                                                              SE %
                              (000 m3 obs) (000 m3 obs)
          England                       912       18,866              7
          Scotland                      794       19,443             10
          Wales                       2,194        3,501             25
          Great Britain              3,900       41,810               6
FC estate   Private sector
  area     area
                      SE %
(000 ha) (000 ha)
      3.4     38.5          6
      2.9     39.8          8
      5.0       6.0        22
    11.2     84.3           5
Return to index

Table 5 Potential timber volumes arising from FC land sales (obs).

                                  2012-16      2017-21      2022-26      2027-31
                  Country          volume       volume       volume       volume
                                (000 m3 obs) (000 m3 obs) (000 m3 obs) (000 m3 obs)
          England                          57           51           47           42
          Scotland                        144          223          273          279
          Wales                             -            -            -            -
          Great Britain                  201          273          320          321
  2032-36
   volume
(000 m3 obs)
           41
          286
            -
         328
Return to index

Table 6 Clearfelled land in Great Britain.

                                      FC       Private sector     Total
                  Country            area           area          area
                                   (000 ha)       (000 ha)      (000 ha)
           England                         8.1            9.0           17.1
           Scotland                       28.2           43.0           71.2
           Wales                           4.6            6.1           10.7
           Great Britain                  40.9           58.2           99.1
Return to index

Table 7 25-year forecast of average annual standing coniferous volume.

                                   FC              Private sector
             Forecast period     volume          volume
                                                                SE%
                               (000m3 obs)     (000m3 obs)
          England
          2012-16                     23,389         41,626           3
          2017-21                     22,874         40,094           4
          2022-26                     22,317         36,386           4
          2027-31                     21,633         32,183           4
          2032-36                     21,121         28,276           4
          Scotland
          2012-16                     73,237        119,210           2
          2017-21                     69,682        128,866           2
          2022-26                     66,526        127,120           2
          2027-31                     62,421        118,654           2
          2032-36                     58,924        103,304           3
          Wales
          2012-16                     18,195         14,391            7
          2017-21                     17,338         12,834            8
          2022-26                     16,624         10,962            9
          2027-31                     16,429          8,885           10
          2032-36                     15,364          7,725           10
          Great Britain
          2012-16                    114,821        175,227           2
          2017-21                    109,894        181,794           2
          2022-26                    105,467        174,468           2
          2027-31                    100,483        159,722           2
          2032-36                     95,408        139,305           2
Return to index page

Figure 1 UK 25-year timber production forecast for FC/FS estate and Private sector estate.

                               Average annual volume to 7cm top diameter overbark (thinning & felling)
                                2012-16       2017-21        2022-26        2027-31         2032-36                                   2012-16
                                 volume        volume        volume         volume          volume                             volume
                                     3             3              3             3
                              (000 m obs) (000 m obs) (000 m obs) (000 m obs) (000 m3 obs)                                  (000 m3 obs)

           England                                                                                       England
           All conifers              1,305          1,183          1,110          1,072            985   All conifers              2,184
           All broadleaves                                                                               All broadleaves

           Scotland                                                                                      Scotland
           All conifers              3,749          3,568          3,417          3,305          2,930   All conifers              4,614
           All broadleaves                                                                               All broadleaves

           Wales                                                                                         Wales
           All conifers                958            979            893            795            927   All conifers                793
           All broadleaves                                                                               All broadleaves

           Northern Ireland                                                                              Northern Ireland
           All Conifers                579            572            529            519            458   All conifers                 26
           All broadleaves                                                                               All broadleaves

           Great Britain                                                                                 Great Britain
           All conifers              6,013          5,730          5,420          5,172          4,841   All conifers              7,591
           All broadleaves                                                                               All broadleaves



                               FC estate                                                                                                   Private secto
           Great Britain           2012-16          6,013                                                Great Britain           2012-16
                                   2017-21          5,730                                                                        2017-21
                                   2022-26          5,420                                                                        2022-26
                   2027-31   5,172                      2027-31
                   2032-36   4,841                      2032-36

England            2012-16   1,305   England            2012-16
                   2017-21   1,183                      2017-21
                   2022-26   1,110                      2022-26
                   2027-31   1,072                      2027-31
                   2032-36     985                      2032-36

Scotland           2012-16   3,749   Scotland           2012-16
                   2017-21   3,568                      2017-21
                   2022-26   3,417                      2022-26
                   2027-31   3,305                      2027-31
                   2032-36   2,930                      2032-36

Wales              2012-16    958    Wales              2012-16
                   2017-21    979                       2017-21
                   2022-26    893                       2022-26
                   2027-31    795                       2027-31
                   2032-36    927                       2032-36

Northern Ireland   2012-16    579    Northern Ireland   2012-16
                   2017-21    572                       2017-21
                   2022-26    529                       2022-26
                   2027-31    519                       2027-31
                   2032-36    458                       2032-36
                              Average annual volume to 7cm top diameter overbark (thinning & felling)
2012-16                         2017-21                     2022-26                        2027-31                         2032-36
                         volume                      volume                        volume                           volume
          SE %                          SE %                        SE %                             SE %                          SE %
                      (000 m3 obs)                (000 m3 obs)                  (000 m3 obs)                     (000 m3 obs)



                  6          2,626              7          2,450              7          2,804               7          2,637              9




                  6          5,917              6          7,796              6          9,131               6          8,213              6




                 19          1,025             17          1,008             18            713              19           791              18




                  -             22               -            25              -             44               -             44              -




                  5          9,569              5         11,255              5         12,648               5         11,641              5




   Private sector
            7,591                 5           346
            9,569                 5           460
          11,255                  5           562
12,648    5   578
11,641    5   552

 2,184    6   140
 2,626    7   181
 2,450    7   181
 2,804    7   187
 2,637    9   227

 4,614    6   279
 5,917    6   384
 7,796    6   501
 9,131    6   530
 8,213    6   483

   793   19   151
 1,025   17   177
 1,008   18   178
   713   19   138
   791   18   144

   26     -     -
   22     -     -
   25     -     -
   44     -     -
   44     -     -
                                                                          UK 25-year forecast of softwood timber availability for FC/FS estate and Private sector estate


                                           14,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Great Britain FC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Great Britain PS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              England FC
                                           12,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             England PS
(000s of cubic metres overbark standing)
  Avergae annual production per period




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Scotland FC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Scotland PS
                                           10,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Wales FC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Wales PS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Northern Ireland FS
                                            8,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Northern Ireland PS


                                            6,000



                                            4,000



                                            2,000



                                               0
                                                    2012-16
                                                              2017-21
                                                                        2022-26
                                                                                  2027-31
                                                                                            2032-36


                                                                                                      2012-16
                                                                                                                2017-21
                                                                                                                          2022-26
                                                                                                                                    2027-31
                                                                                                                                              2032-36


                                                                                                                                                        2012-16
                                                                                                                                                                  2017-21
                                                                                                                                                                            2022-26
                                                                                                                                                                                      2027-31
                                                                                                                                                                                                2032-36


                                                                                                                                                                                                          2012-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2017-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2022-26
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2027-31
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2032-36


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2012-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2017-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2022-26
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2027-31
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2032-36
                                                          Great Britain                                          England                                           Scotland                                               Wales                                        Northern
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Ireland
Return to index

Figure 2 GB 25-year timber potential scenarios for the private sector estate

           Scenario                                                                  Standing   Standing    Over due   2012-16   2017-21   2022-26   2027-31   2032-36   Cumulative
                                                                                      volume     volume                                                                   production
                                                                                     2012-16    2032-36
           No harvesting                                                                 242,807  452,549          0         0         0         0         0         0            0
           Biological potential
           Physical factors
           Biological potential felling with no thinning                                 174,713  149,487     52,069     5,318     8,382     8,778    12,335    11,765      284,961
           Modified biological potential, thinning and felling assuming moderate wind risk measures
                                                                                         175,227  139,305     41,810     7,591     9,569    11,255    12,648    11,641      305,325
           Modified biological potential, thinning and felling assuming strong wind risk measures 131,012
                                                                                         167,979              48,644     7,584    10,465    11,202    11,494    10,487      304,812
           Biological potential, assuming thinning based on observed activity            164,315  122,132     54,268     7,025     9,217    10,800    12,786    11,077      308,785
           Biological potential felling and thinning all                                 176,917  142,286     38,999     7,908    10,147    11,268    12,661    12,307      310,458
           Market behaviour
           Felling and thinning to the 2005 industry 'view'                              149,214  125,010     66,158     7,818     9,324     9,216     8,654     9,355      287,993
                                                                    The impact of different harvesting scenarios upon 25-year timber potential for the Private sector (GB).



                                           14,000

                                                                                                                                                                Modified biological potential,
                                                                                                                                                                thinning and felling assuming
                                                                                                                                                                moderate wind risk measures
                                           12,000
                                                    Volume (thinning & felling)
(000s of cubic metres overbark standing)




                                                                                                                                                                Modified biological potential,
  Avergae annual production per period




                                                                                                                                                                thinning and felling assuming
                                                                                                                                                                strong wind risk measures
                                           10,000

                                                                                                                                                                Biological potential felling and
                                                                                                                                                                thinning all
                                            8,000

                                                                                                                                                                Biological potential, assuming
                                                                                                                                                                thinning based on observed
                                                                                                                                                                activity
                                            6,000

                                                                                                                                                                Biological potential felling with no
                                                                                                                                                                thinning
                                            4,000

                                                                                                                                                                Felling and thinning to the 2005
                                                                                                                                                                industry 'view'
                                            2,000

                                                                                                                                                                No harvesting


                                               0
                                                                            2012-16   2017-21           2022-26           2027-31           2032-36
Return to index

Figure 3 25-year forecast of average annual standing coniferous volume.

                                                  Average annual standing volume
                               2012-16        2017-21        2022-26        2027-31
                                volume         volume        volume          volume
                             (000 m3 obs)   (000 m3 obs) (000 m3 obs) (000 m3 obs)

           England
           All conifers            23,389         22,874        22,317       21,633
           All broadleaves

           Scotland
           All conifers            73,237         69,682        66,526       62,421
           All broadleaves

           Wales
           All conifers            18,195         17,338        16,624       16,429
           All broadleaves

           Great Britain
           All conifers           114,821        109,894      105,467       100,483
           All broadleaves



                              FC estate
            Great Britain        2012-16         114,821
                                 2017-21         109,894
                                 2022-26         105,467
                                 2027-31         100,483
                                 2032-36          95,408

              England             2012-16         23,389
                                  2017-21         22,874
                                  2022-26         22,317
                                  2027-31         21,633
                                  2032-36         21,121

              Scotland            2012-16         73,237
                                  2017-21         69,682
                                  2022-26         66,526
                                  2027-31         62,421
                                  2032-36         58,924

                  Wales           2012-16         18,195
                                  2017-21         17,338
                                  2022-26         16,624
2027-31   16,429
2032-36   15,364
ume                                                                                        Average a
        2032-36                                  2012-16                         2017-21
         volume                           volume                          volume
                                                         SE %
      (000 m3 obs)                     (000 m3 obs)                    (000 m3 obs)

                     England
            21,121   All conifers            41,626               3          40,094
                     All broadleaves

                     Scotland
            58,924   All conifers           119,210               2         128,866
                     All broadleaves

                     Wales
            15,364   All conifers            14,391               7          12,834
                     All broadleaves

                     Great Britain
            95,408   All conifers           175,227               2         181,794
                     All broadleaves



                                                      Private sector
                     Great Britain         2012-16          175,227            1.90
                                           2017-21          181,794            1.88
                                           2022-26          174,468            1.95
                                           2027-31          159,722            2.06
                                           2032-36          139,305            2.27

                     England               2012-16           41,626            3.39
                                           2017-21           40,094            3.54
                                           2022-26           36,386            3.84
                                           2027-31           32,183            4.23
                                           2032-36           28,276            4.44

                     Scotland              2012-16          119,210            2.37
                                           2017-21          128,866            2.27
                                           2022-26          127,120            2.31
                                           2027-31          118,654            2.42
                                           2032-36          103,304            2.70

                     Wales                 2012-16           14,391            7.37
                                           2017-21           12,834            7.92
                                           2022-26           10,962            9.02
2027-31   8,885   10.14
2032-36   7,725   10.21
                     Average annual standing volume
2017-21                         2022-26                       2027-31                       2032-36
                         volume                        volume                        volume
          SE %                           SE %                         SE %
                      (000 m3 obs)                  (000 m3 obs)                  (000 m3 obs)



                 4          36,386              4        32,183               4         28,276




                 2         127,120              2       118,654               2        103,304




                 8          10,962              9         8,885              10          7,725




                 2         174,468              2       159,722               2        139,305




             3,335
             3,410
             3,397
             3,298
             3,161

             1,410
             1,420
             1,399
             1,362
             1,256

             2,830
             2,929
             2,933
             2,866
             2,791

             1,061
             1,016
               989
901
789
2032-36

          SE %



                  4




                  3




                 10




                  2
                                                                                                         25-year forecast of average annual standing coniferous volume


                                            200,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Great Britain FC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Great Britain PS
                                            180,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                  England FC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     England PS
Avergae annual standing volume per period




                                            160,000
 (000s of cubic metres overbark standing)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Scotland FC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Scotland PS
                                            140,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Wales FC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Wales PS
                                            120,000


                                            100,000


                                             80,000


                                             60,000


                                             40,000


                                             20,000


                                                 0
                                                      2012-16

                                                                 2017-21

                                                                           2022-26

                                                                                     2027-31

                                                                                               2032-36



                                                                                                              2012-16

                                                                                                                        2017-21

                                                                                                                                  2022-26

                                                                                                                                            2027-31

                                                                                                                                                      2032-36



                                                                                                                                                                2012-16

                                                                                                                                                                          2017-21

                                                                                                                                                                                    2022-26

                                                                                                                                                                                              2027-31

                                                                                                                                                                                                        2032-36



                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2012-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2017-21

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2022-26

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2027-31

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2032-36
                                                                Great Britain                                           England                                              Scotland                                                 Wales
Return to index

Figure 4 25-year forecast of standing volume, net increment and production - FC estate.
Figure 5 25-year forecast of standing volume, net increment and production - Private sector estate.

                                Average annual volume to 7cm top diameter overbark (thinning & felling)
                                 2012-16       2017-21        2022-26        2027-31
                                 volume         volume        volume         volume
                              (000 m3 obs) (000 m3 obs) (000 m3 obs) (000 m3 obs)

           England
           All conifers               1,305          1,183          1,110           1,072
           All broadleaves

           Scotland
           All conifers               3,749          3,568          3,417           3,305
           All broadleaves

           Wales
           All conifers                 958            979            893             795
           All broadleaves

           Northern Ireland
           All Conifers                 579            572            529             519
           All broadleaves

           Great Britain
           All conifers               6,013          5,730          5,420           5,172
           All broadleaves



                                                    Average annual standing volume
                                2012-16         2017-21        2022-26        2027-31
                                 volume          volume        volume          volume
                              (000 m3 obs)           3              3
                                              (000 m obs) (000 m obs) (000 m3 obs)

           England
           All conifers             23,389          22,874         22,317          21,633
           All broadleaves

           Scotland
           All conifers             73,237          69,682         66,526          62,421
           All broadleaves

           Wales
           All conifers             18,195          17,338         16,624          16,429
           All broadleaves

           Great Britain
All conifers           114,821        109,894      105,467       100,483
All broadleaves



                                        Average annual net increment
                    2012-16        2017-21        2022-26        2027-31
                     volume         volume        volume         volume
                  (000 m3 obs)   (000 m3 obs) (000 m3 obs) (000 m3 obs)

England
All conifers             1,224          1,137         1,036          975
All broadleaves

Scotland
All conifers             3,442          3,090         2,800        2,630
All broadleaves

Wales
All conifers               861           832           810           810
All broadleaves

Great Britain
All conifers             5,528          5,059         4,646        4,415
All broadleaves



                                             Standing volume
                      2012           2017         2022         2027
                     volume         volume       volume       volume
                  (000 m3 obs)   (000 m3 obs) (000 m3 obs) (000 m3 obs)

England
All conifers            23,757         23,296       22,741        22,134
All broadleaves

Scotland
All conifers            75,695         71,142       68,201        64,287
All broadleaves

Wales
All conifers            18,226         17,907       16,993        16,594
All broadleaves

Great Britain
All conifers           117,678        112,345      107,935       103,015
All broadleaves
                FC estate production
  Production              Average annual   Period total
Great Britain    2012-16           6,013         30,064
                 2017-21           5,730         28,650
                 2022-26           5,420         27,101
                 2027-31           5,172         25,861
                 2032-36           4,841         24,205

England          2012-16          1,305          6,526
                 2017-21          1,183          5,916
                 2022-26          1,110          5,552
                 2027-31          1,072          5,362
                 2032-36            985          4,923

Scotland         2012-16          3,749         18,746
                 2017-21          3,568         17,840
                 2022-26          3,417         17,086
                 2027-31          3,305         16,525
                 2032-36          2,930         14,649

Wales            2012-16            958          4,792
                 2017-21            979          4,894
                 2022-26            893          4,464
                 2027-31            795          3,975
                 2032-36            927          4,633



                FC estate standing
   Standing              Average annual
Great Britain   2012-16         114,821
                2017-21         109,894
                2022-26         105,467
                2027-31         100,483
                2032-36          95,408

England          2012-16         23,389
                 2017-21         22,874
                 2022-26         22,317
                 2027-31         21,633
                 2032-36         21,121

Scotland         2012-16         73,237
                 2017-21         69,682
                 2022-26         66,526
                 2027-31         62,421
                 2032-36         58,924
Wales               2012-16          18,195
                    2017-21          17,338
                    2022-26          16,624
                    2027-31          16,429
                    2032-36          15,364



                  FC estate net increment
Net increment                 Average annual   Period total
Great Britain        2012-16           5,528         27,638
                     2017-21           5,059         25,297
                     2022-26           4,646         23,232
                     2027-31           4,415         22,077
                     2032-36           4,336         21,682

England             2012-16           1,224          6,121
                    2017-21           1,137          5,686
                    2022-26           1,036          5,182
                    2027-31             975          4,874
                    2032-36             955          4,774

Scotland            2012-16           3,442         17,212
                    2017-21           3,090         15,452
                    2022-26           2,800         13,998
                    2027-31           2,630         13,151
                    2032-36           2,608         13,039

Wales               2012-16             861          4,305
                    2017-21             832          4,159
                    2022-26             810          4,052
                    2027-31             810          4,052
                    2032-36             774          3,868



                FC estate snapshot standing
   Standing                     Snapshot
Great Britain           2012         117,678
                        2017         112,345
                        2022         107,935
                        2027         103,015
                        2032          97,412

England                 2012         23,757
                        2017         23,296
                        2022         22,741
                        2027         22,134
                        2032         21,476
Scotland   2012   75,695
           2017   71,142
           2022   68,201
           2027   64,287
           2032   60,382

Wales      2012   18,226
           2017   17,907
           2022   16,993
           2027   16,594
           2032   15,554
Private sector estate.

bark (thinning & felling)                                                                 Average annual volume to 7cm
               2032-36                                     2012-16                         2017-21
                volume                               volume                         volume
                                                                     SE %
             (000 m3 obs)                         (000 m3 obs)                   (000 m3 obs)

                               England
                         985   All conifers              2,184               6          2,626
                               All broadleaves

                               Scotland
                     2,930     All conifers              4,614               6          5,917
                               All broadleaves

                               Wales
                         927   All conifers                793              19          1,025
                               All broadleaves

                               Northern Ireland
                         458   All conifers                 26               -             22
                               All broadleaves

                               Great Britain
                     4,841     All conifers              7,591               5          9,569
                               All broadleaves



ume                                                                                                         Average a
              2032-36                                      2012-16                        2017-21
               volume                                volume                         volume
                                                                     SE %
            (000 m3 obs)                          (000 m3 obs)                   (000 m3 obs)

                               England
                   21,121      All conifers             41,626               3         40,094
                               All broadleaves

                               Scotland
                   58,924      All conifers            119,210               2        128,866
                               All broadleaves

                               Wales
                   15,364      All conifers             14,391               7         12,834
                               All broadleaves

                               Great Britain
            95,408   All conifers           175,227             2        181,794
                     All broadleaves



ent                                                                                     Average
        2032-36                                  2012-16                      2017-21
         volume                           volume                       volume
                                                         SE %
      (000 m3 obs)                     (000 m3 obs)                 (000 m3 obs)

                     England
               955   All conifers             2,136             3          1,966
                     All broadleaves

                     Scotland
             2,608   All conifers             6,828             2          7,076
                     All broadleaves

                     Wales
               774   All conifers               731             6            636
                     All broadleaves

                     Great Britain
             4,336   All conifers             9,694             2          9,678
                     All broadleaves



                                                                                             S
          2032                                    2012                         2017
         volume                           volume                       volume
                                                         SE %
      (000 m3 obs)                     (000 m3 obs)                 (000 m3 obs)

                     England
            21,476   All conifers            42,528             3         41,992
                     All broadleaves

                     Scotland
            60,382   All conifers           114,801             2        126,702
                     All broadleaves

                     Wales
            15,554   All conifers            14,520             8         13,840
                     All broadleaves

                     Great Britain
            97,412   All conifers           171,848             2        182,533
                     All broadleaves
                             Private sector production
  Production              Average annual
Great Britain   2012-16            7,591               5
                2017-21            9,569               5
                2022-26           11,255               5
                2027-31           12,648               5
                2032-36           11,641               5

England         2012-16            2,184                 6
                2017-21            2,626                 7
                2022-26            2,450                 7
                2027-31            2,804                 7
                2032-36            2,637                 9

Scotland        2012-16            4,614                 6
                2017-21            5,917                 6
                2022-26            7,796                 6
                2027-31            9,131                 6
                2032-36            8,213                 6

Wales           2012-16              793                19
                2017-21            1,025                17
                2022-26            1,008                18
                2027-31              713                19
                2032-36              791                18



                              Private sector standing
   Standing               Average annual
Great Britain   2012-16          175,227                 2
                2017-21          181,794                 2
                2022-26          174,468                 2
                2027-31          159,722                 2
                2032-36          139,305                 2

England         2012-16           41,626                 3
                2017-21           40,094                 4
                2022-26           36,386                 4
                2027-31           32,183                 4
                2032-36           28,276                 4

Scotland        2012-16         119,210                  2
                2017-21         128,866                  2
                2022-26         127,120                  2
                2027-31         118,654                  2
                2032-36         103,304                  3
Wales           2012-16           14,391               7
                2017-21           12,834               8
                2022-26           10,962               9
                2027-31            8,885              10
                2032-36            7,725              10



                           Private sector net increment
Net increment             Average annual
Great Britain   2012-16            9,694                2
                2017-21            9,678                2
                2022-26            9,317                2
                2027-31            8,771                2
                2032-36            8,248                2

England         2012-16            2,136               3
                2017-21            1,966               3
                2022-26            1,885               3
                2027-31            1,837               4
                2032-36            1,813               4

Scotland        2012-16            6,828               2
                2017-21            7,076               2
                2022-26            6,869               2
                2027-31            6,420               2
                2032-36            5,900               2

Wales           2012-16              731               6
                2017-21              636               7
                2022-26              563               7
                2027-31              514               8
                2032-36              535               8



                       Private sector snapshot standing
   Standing                Snapshot
Great Britain     2012         171,848               2
                  2017         182,533               2
                  2022         181,672               2
                  2027         170,496               2
                  2032         144,635               2

England           2012            42,528               3
                  2017            41,992               4
                  2022            38,205               4
                  2027            35,217               4
                  2032            30,245               5
Scotland   2012   114,801    2
           2017   126,702    2
           2022   131,774    2
           2027   126,073    3
           2032   105,980    3

Wales      2012    14,520    8
           2017    13,840    8
           2022    11,694    9
           2027     9,205   10
           2032     8,410   11
Average annual volume to 7cm top diameter overbark (thinning & felling)
 2017-21                      2022-26                        2027-31                          2032-36
                       volume                        volume                            volume
         SE %                         SE %                              SE %
                    (000 m3 obs)                  (000 m3 obs)                      (000 m3 obs)



                  7            2,450             7         2,804                7          2,637




                  6            7,796             6         9,131                6          8,213




                 17            1,008            18           713               19            791




                  -               25             -            44                -             44




                  5          11,255              5        12,648                5         11,641




                      Average annual standing volume
2017-21                          2022-26                       2027-31                        2032-36
                          volume                        volume                         volume
          SE %                            SE %                         SE %
                       (000 m3 obs)                  (000 m3 obs)                   (000 m3 obs)



                  4          36,386              4        32,183                4         28,276




                  2         127,120              2       118,654                2        103,304




                  8          10,962              9         8,885               10          7,725
                 2        174,468               2        159,722              2        139,305




                     Average annual net increment
2017-21                        2022-26                        2027-31                       2032-36
                        volume                         volume                        volume
          SE %                          SE %                          SE %
                     (000 m3 obs)                   (000 m3 obs)                  (000 m3 obs)



                 3           1,885              3          1,837              4          1,813




                 2           6,869              2          6,420              2          5,900




                 7             563              7            514              8            535




                 2           9,317              2          8,771              2          8,248




                           Standing volume
 2017                           2022                           2027                          2032
                        volume                         volume                        volume
          SE %                          SE %                          SE %
                     (000 m3 obs)                   (000 m3 obs)                  (000 m3 obs)



                 4         38,205               4         35,217              4         30,245




                 2        131,774               2        126,073              3        105,980




                 8         11,694               9          9,205             10          8,410




                 2        181,672               2        170,496              2        144,635
oduction
                   Period total
            346         37,954
            460         47,843
            562         56,274
            578         63,242
            552         58,203

            140        10,919
            181        13,132
            181        12,252
            187        14,022
            227        13,184

            279        23,068
            384        29,584
            501        38,980
            530        45,657
            483        41,065

            151         3,967
            177         5,127
            178         5,041
            138         3,563
            144         3,954



anding

           3,335
           3,410
           3,397
           3,298
           3,161

           1,410
           1,420
           1,399
           1,362
           1,256

           2,830
           2,929
           2,933
           2,866
           2,791
               1,061
               1,016
                 989
                 901
                 789



ncrement
                       Period total
                152         48,471
                155         48,392
                153         46,584
                150         43,857
                149         41,241

                 68        10,678
                 68         9,831
                 66         9,423
                 64         9,186
                 64         9,066

                128        34,139
                133        35,379
                131        34,344
                130        32,102
                128        29,500

                 44         3,653
                 43         3,182
                 41         2,817
                 39         2,570
                 41         2,675



hot standing

               3,399
               3,526
               3,629
               3,622
               3,419

               1,449
               1,493
               1,445
               1,452
               1,416
2,857
2,989
3,149
3,185
2,978

1,135
1,128
1,079
  931
  902
2032-36

          SE %



                  9




                  6




                 18




                  -




                  5




2032-36

          SE %



                  4




                  3




                 10
                  2




2032-36

          SE %



                  4




                  2




                  8




                  2




 2032

          SE %



                  5




                  3




                 11




                  2
                                                                                                                                               Figure 4




             200,000                                                                                                                                                                                                           200,000   Great Britain FC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         average annual
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         standing volume per
             180,000                                                                                                                                                                                                           180,000   period

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Great Britain FC total
             160,000                                                                                                                                                                                                           160,000   net increment per
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         period
             140,000                                                                                                                                                                                                           140,000   England FC average
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         annual standing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         volume per period
             120,000                                                                                                                                                                                                           120,000
000 m3 obs




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         England FC total net
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         increment per period
             100,000                                                                                                                                                                                                           100,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Scotland FC average
              80,000                                                                                                                                                                                                           80,000    annual standing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         volume per period

              60,000                                                                                                                                                                                                           60,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Scotland FC total net
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         increment per period
              40,000                                                                                                                                                                                                           40,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Wales FC average
              20,000                                                                                                                                                                                                           20,000    annual standing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         volume per period

                  0                                                                                                                                                                                                            0          Wales FC total net
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          increment per
                       2012-16
                                 2017-21
                                           2022-26
                                                     2027-31
                                                               2032-36


                                                                         2012-16
                                                                                   2017-21
                                                                                             2022-26
                                                                                                       2027-31
                                                                                                                 2032-36


                                                                                                                           2012-16
                                                                                                                                     2017-21
                                                                                                                                               2022-26
                                                                                                                                                         2027-31
                                                                                                                                                                   2032-36


                                                                                                                                                                             2012-16
                                                                                                                                                                                       2017-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                 2022-26
                                                                                                                                                                                                           2027-31
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2032-36
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          period

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          FC total production
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          per period




                                                                                                                                               Page 53
                                                                                                                                               Figure 5




             200,000                                                                                                                                                                                                            200,000   Great Britain PS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          average annual
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          standing volume per
             180,000                                                                                                                                                                                                            180,000   period
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Great Britain PS total
             160,000                                                                                                                                                                                                            160,000   net increment per
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          period
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          England PS average
             140,000                                                                                                                                                                                                            140,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          annual standing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          volume per period
             120,000                                                                                                                                                                                                            120,000   England PS total net
000 m3 obs




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          increment per period
             100,000                                                                                                                                                                                                            100,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Scotland PS average
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          annual standing
              80,000                                                                                                                                                                                                            80,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          volume per period

              60,000                                                                                                                                                                                                            60,000    Scotland PS total net
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          increment per period

              40,000                                                                                                                                                                                                            40,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Wales PS average
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          annual standing
              20,000                                                                                                                                                                                                            20,000    volume per period

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Wales PS total net
                  0                                                                                                                                                                                                             0         increment per
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          period
                       2012-16
                                 2017-21
                                           2022-26
                                                     2027-31
                                                               2032-36


                                                                         2012-16
                                                                                   2017-21
                                                                                             2022-26
                                                                                                       2027-31
                                                                                                                 2032-36


                                                                                                                           2012-16
                                                                                                                                     2017-21
                                                                                                                                                2022-26
                                                                                                                                                          2027-31
                                                                                                                                                                    2032-36


                                                                                                                                                                              2012-16
                                                                                                                                                                                        2017-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                  2022-26
                                                                                                                                                                                                            2027-31
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2032-36
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          PS total production
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          per period




                                                                                                                                               Page 54

								
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