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INPRO - INFRASTRUCTURE by ert554898

VIEWS: 4 PAGES: 25

									Nuclear Electricity in the
     CEE Region:
     Current State
          and
Development Prospects
      R I Facer, NENP-NPTDS, IAEA




                     IAEA
           International Atomic Energy Agency
            NUMBER OF COUNTRIES WITH NPP
            and others who have considered NPP

       35

       30

       25

       20

       15

       10

       5

       0
          50

          55

          60

          65

          70

          75

          80

          85

          90

          95

          00

          05

          10
       19

       19

       19

       19

       19

       19

       19

       19

       19

       19

       20

       20

       20
        Blue, countries with NPPs,
        Pink, countries that considered NPPs

IAEA
Reasons why not proceeded in the past

 • Finance
    •   Nuclear economics unattractive
    •   Infrastructure costs high
    •   Costs of new facilities high
    •   Liability for waste uncertain
 • Manpower unavailable
    • Lack of skills
    • Lack of trained manpower
 • Public distrust
 • Private industry decisions
 • Alternatives available
   IAEA
Changing conditions

• Economics of alternative energy sources
  • Rising price of fossil fuels
• Nuclear continuing in many countries
  • Identified success for countries that have
    nuclear power
• Security of supply
   • Independence from single supplier
• Growing environmental concerns over fossil
  fuels
    IAEA
Global Nuclear Capacity
        400

                                                    Developing countries
        350


        300                                                         Japan / ROK
        250                                                           FSU / EE
GW(e)




        200

                                                               Western Europe
        150


        100


         50                                                North America
          0
          1960   1965   1970        1975     1980       1985      1990         1995   2000

                        NA     WE    Russia & EE    Japan & ROK   Developing


   IAEA
  World Primary Energy Demand
          18 000

          16 000

          14 000
                                                      Natural gas
          12 000

          10 000
   Mtoe




           8 000                                        Oil

           6 000
                                                                       Hydro
           4 000                                       Coal
                                                                       power
           2 000                                  Other renewables     Nuclear
               0                                                       power
               1970   1980    1990     2000    2010      2020        2030
       Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix,
                     while oil remains the leading fuel
IAEA
Into Uncharted Territory:
The Earth out of Balance



                                                                                         IPCC
                                                                                         Projection
                                                                                                           650
                                                          CO2 trapped in Ice Cores (ppm)
                                                                                                           600
                    Annual CO2 increase
                                                                         Vostok Record
           3.5
                                                                         IPCC Scenario                     550
             3
           2.5
 ppmv/yr




             2
           1.5
                                                                                                           500
             1
           0.5
             0
             1955   1965   1975      1985   1995   2005
                                                                                                           450
                              Year
                                                                                           Current
                                                                                           (2003)          400

                                                                                                           350

                                                                                                           300

                                                                                                           250

                                                                                                           200
                    IAEA                                  400        300        200         100        0
                                                             Age (thousands of years before present)
Climate Change:
It Is Already Occurring




An increasing body of
observations gives a collective
picture of a warming World.

There is new and stronger
evidence that most of the
warming observed over the last
50 years is attributable to human
activities.




      IAEA
                Technologies Exist
                to Begin to Take Action




          IAEA
R Socolow, Science 2004
Agency Activities

• Regional Europe TC Projects
  • Operational Support
  • Safety/regulatory support
• National Projects
  • Energy Planning, capacity building
  • License renewal/Life extension
  • Infrastructure support
  • Specific national requests

    IAEA
Strengthening capabilities for NPP performance and service life




• Experience over the past four years
                         World                Regional Europe
    Increase in          2.07%                2.8%
    installed capacity
    Increase output      7.4%                 16.9%
    Additional                                42.18
    TWH/year
    Additional Annual                         $25M per TWH
    Revenue

     IAEA
World Energy today
                             Energy      Electricity
                             consumption Consumption
                              (GJ/cap)   (MWh/cap)
     North America           347         13.8

     Western Europe          150         6.3
     Eastern Europe          130         4.2

     Middle East and South   28          0.7
     Asia
     Africa                  26          0.6

     Far East                56          2.2

     World Average           71          2.6



  IAEA
Prognosis for the future


• World demand increases
• Asia increases much faster than world
  average
• Fossil fuel use has massive increase
• Environmental stress



   IAEA
CEE
                  Number of NPP   % of all electricity
                  units           from nuclear
      Bulgaria          4                 42
      Czech R           8                 31
      Finland           4                 27
      Hungary           4                 34
      Lithuania         1                 72
      Romania           1                 10
      Slovakia          6                 55
      Slovenia          1                 39
      Ukraine           15                51


  IAEA
Nuclear Support


In the Countries where nuclear power
  contributes significantly to the national
  electricity supply there is broad political
  consensus that nuclear power should
  continue




    IAEA
CEE Nuclear plans (existing nuclear countries)
                  Planned new Continued operation
                  units       and license renewal

      Bulgaria          Yes            yes

      Czech R                          Yes
      Finland           Yes            Yes
      Hungary                          Yes
      Lithuania      Possible          No
      Romania      Yes Completion of   Yes
                     delayed plant

      Slovakia                         Yes
      Slovenia                         Yes
      Ukraine           Yes            Yes
   IAEA
Other Countries plans

• Several Countries have expressed interest
  recently, particularly since Paris Conference
  “Nuclear Power for the 21st Century” at
  which 34 Ministers presented speeches
  discussing their countries interest in possible
  nuclear power plants in the future.
• At present there are 24 nuclear plants under
  construction in 9 countries

    IAEA
European Green Paper

• Towards a European Strategy for the
  Security of Energy Supply (2000)
• Three Main Points
  • Increasing Dependence upon external energy
    sources (70% by 2030)
  • Little scope to influence energy supply
    conditions
  • Not in a position to respond to challenge of
    Climate Change
    IAEA
European Context

• Nuclear can reduce external dependence
  upon fossil energy
• Nuclear can provide energy without
  Greenhouse Gas emissions
• Nuclear can provide diversity of national
  energy supply and improved national energy
  supply security


   IAEA
Nuclear Availability

• Technology available now for large nuclear plant,
  in an integrated grid system
  • Several plants being built worldwide that could be used
    in Europe
• Several designs approaching implementation for
  small or medium sized reactors that could be used
  on a more localised basis.
• European Infrastructure exists that could support
  the introduction of a nuclear plant for any country
  in Europe
    IAEA
Nuclear fuel and waste

• Recent speech by US Secretary of State for
 Energy
 • US sees fuel cycle states offering ‘cradle to
    grave’ fuel cycle services, leasing fuel and then
    taking it back for reprocessing and disposition.
• This service is already available from
 Russia, and hence should develop into the
 normal means of fuel supply and removal
 service
    IAEA
Waste storage



• Generally this is a technically solved
 problem, and the future position of return of
 fuel to the supplier country should reduce
 the number of storage locations that are
 needed.



    IAEA
Nuclear and Renewables

• Nuclear power should not be seen as
  competing with renewable energy systems
• Both renewable systems and high quality
  nuclear power are needed to ensure a
  secure energy supply system




   IAEA
The next steps

• Nuclear needs to be recognised as a significant
  potential energy source for Europe
• For countries that do not already operate nuclear
  power plants the IAEA can provide support to
  develop and strengthen the Infrastructure in these
  countries
• Action is needed quickly to avoid a significant
  problem for Europe in terms of energy supply
  security

    IAEA
       The end, thank you




IAEA

								
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