DISCOVERIES 6 01 00

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					                   C&S GRAIN MARKET CONSULTING                                           1998-1999 MARKETING DISCOVERIES:
6/01/00

Listed below are the major discoveries I found in 1998 and 1999.

1. The USDA issues a WASDE report every month of the year, even when there are no crop reports
   involved.

2. Report #1 was issued on 9/17/73 but didn’t carry any price estimates. Price estimates started with
   report #52 on 4/22/77. A lower and upper price range is given.

3.    The early years had as many as 34 reports in one year (1974), but since report #175, which was
     issued on 11/13/84, all months have only one report. The June 2000 WASDE report will be report
     #363. Corn is on page 10 and Soybeans are on page 13 when you open the report using the Adobe
     PDF Format.


4. The USDA-WASDE reports are available on the Internet back through 1995. The address is:
   http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/waob.htm Reports prior to 1995 are stored at Cornell University. The
     Internet address that might help in opening these files is: http://www.help@usdamannlib.cornell.edu
    Gaining access to the pre-1995 reports is challenging.

5. Even though the USDA-WASDE estimate of price is meant to be a “marketing-year weighted average
   price received by farmers”, the futures market has a very strong tendency to trade near these price
   levels between each USDA-WASDE report. The actual Lows are usually above the WASDE Lows
   more than the Highs are.


6. The only time there is a strong move away from the USDA-WASDE estimated prices are during
   periods of time when the market is driven by strong weather emotions such as was experienced in
   1988.

7. When the underlying fundamentals change enough for price to respond, the price charts will begin to
   show a new trend before the reason for it becomes know. If, however, the following 3 or 4
   USDA-WASDE reports don’t show-confirming data for the new price trend, the new trend will not
   continue.


8. Separate from the USDA-WASDE reports are the Seasonal studies. Each calendar season of the year
   has a definite cycle, first a High and then a Low. The time window is somewhat predictable. The price
   relationship between one season’s price and another season’s price is more predictable.

9. Every year will have 4 Seasonal selling opportunities that usually can be easily picked out on the
   charts. Even strong trending years will show the pattern, only not as amplified.

*******************************************************************************************************************************
The information herein provided is believed to be accurate but cannot be guaranteed. All of my work is derived from public historical data. The interpretation
of that data is original on my part. Providing this information does not include an expressed or implied recommendation for making any trades or other
financial decisions. Any gain or loss resulting from the use of this information is entirely the responsibility of the user.
C&S GRAIN MARKET CONSULTING                                William C. Fordham            Promoting Stewardship in Marketing New Crop Corn and
Soybeans
24704             2200             E            ST                                     Web:         http://www.cs-grainmarketconsulting.com
Phone: 815-376-6101
Ohio,       IL       61349                                                                                       e-mail:         wilmar@theramp.net
Fax:        815-376-2301
“Stewardship in Marketing: Fighting Fear and Greed by using knowledge of the past, an awareness of the present, and planning for the future.”

				
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