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World Real Discovery Trend Historical Data ExxonMobil Where is it

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World Real Discovery Trend Historical Data ExxonMobil Where is it Powered By Docstoc
					     World Real Discovery Trend
     60                                                        60
                                               Past
     50                                                        50
                                               Future
                                               Production
     40                                                        40
Gb




     30                                                        30


     20                                                        20

     10                                                        10


      0                                                         0
       1930   1950   1970        1990   2010      2030      2050
               Historical Data    ExxonMobil
         Where is it?
    Regular Conventional Oil
 ME.Other                          -2714


     East                      -44 23
                                                            Produced

W. Europe                      -47 22                       Reserves

    Africa                   -83           65               Yet-to-Find
L. America                  -110           71

N. America           -193             30


   Eurasia           -191                       146


  ME Gulf       -245                                    380



         -250 -150          -50            50         150     250   350   450
                                     Billion Barrels
      Predictions of World Oil Peak
► Dr. Ken Deffeyes:       in next 5 yrs (formerly Dec 05)
► Dr. Ali Bakhtiari:      2006
► Matthew Simmons:        2006
► Dr. David Goodstein:    2007-2009
► Chris Skrebowski:       2007
► Dr. Fredrik Robelius:   2008-2018
► Dr. Colin Campbell:     Around 2010
► China:                  2012
► Douglas - Westwood:     As early as 2016
► EIA (Nominal case):     2016
► Shell Oil Co:           After 2020
► USGS 5% probability     2012
► USGS 95% probability    2032
► GAO:                    between NOW and 2040
             USGS Methodology
Stephen Leeb, president of Leeb Capital Management:
  “The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) claims the production
  peak at 2032, but don't believe it.
  The U.S. government has an official policy of
  calculating reserves based on projected demand,
  not on projected supply. (Yes, you read that correctly!)”

As the Energy Information Agency explains, "estimates are
  based on non-technical considerations that support
  domestic supply growth to the levels necessary to meet
  projected demand levels."
                 Dick Chaney (1999)
►   In a speech to the International Petroleum Institute in London (late
    1999), Dick Chaney, then Chairman of the world’s largest oil services
    company, Halliburton, presented the picture of the oil supply and
    demand to industry insiders. “By some estimates,” Cheney stated,
    “there will be an average of two percent annual growth in global oil
    demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatvely, a three
    percent natural decline in production from existing reserves.”

►   Cheney ended on an alarming note: “that means by 2010 we will need
    on the order of an additional fiftly million barrels a day.” (that is more
    than 6 times Saudi Arabia’s current output.
                      2006 Update
• Through July 2006 (based on EIA Data) the world has produced
  about 142 million barrels less oil than if we had simply maintained
  the 12/05 production rate. This is a shortfall of about 675, 000 bpd.
  During this tme period, oil prices traded in the highest (nominal)
  price range in history.

• We are virtually certain that all four oil fields currently producing one
  mbpd or more are in decline (we are certain that three of the four are
  in decline).

   Jeffrey J. Brown is an independent petroleum geologist (13 Oct
   2006).
                     Impacts?
• “Crude oil prices could touch $380 a barrel by 2015.”
  French investment bank Ixis-CIB, April 2005


• Peak Oil will likely have a major impact on the economy
  and on food production and distribution!


• Additional impacts are likely on transportation, housing,
  medicine, education and plastics.
             WHERE WE GET OUR ENERGY


                                          oil
                                          gas
Million of                                coal
barrels of
                                          nuclear
    oil
equivalent                                hydro
                                          biomass
                                          solar/wind


             0%   20% 40% 60% 80%   100
                                     %
         Peak Oil at UW-Stout
► Peak Oil Committee – meet every 2 weeks
► Campus Education about Peak Oil–films, speakers
► Campus Efforts to reduce Energy Consumption
► Investigation of Funding for Renewable Energy
► Discuss Curricular Implications of Peak Oil
► Possible Creation of Center for Peak Oil and
  Sustainability

				
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posted:9/15/2012
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