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Lecture ic ucsc edu University of California Santa Cruz

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       Women in the 2004 Election
Key Points
      President Bush’s victory on Tuesday was solid and deep.

      Republicans maintained control of the Presidency, the Senate and the
       House for the first time in 80 years.

      President Bush received more popular votes than any presidential
       candidate in history.

          Bush received 4 million more votes than Ronald Reagan did in his
           1984 landslide.
          Bush becomes the first President since his father in 1988 to capture a
           majority of the presidential vote.
United States Senate Outcome (55-R to 45-D)
      Every incumbent except Tom Daschle seeking re-election won.
        Five incumbent women were re-elected.
        Five challenger or open seat women lost.

      Republicans picked up five seats in the South.
        FL-Martinez, GA-Isakson, LA-Vitter, NC-Burr, SC-DeMint

      Democrats picked up two open seats.
        CO-Salazar, IL-Obama

      Net gain of four seats for the Republicans.
United States Congress Outcome (231-R to 201-D)
      Women increased their number from 63 to 68.
        Eight women will join the House in 2005 (3 retired or sought higher
          office).
           There will be 23 Republican women in the 109th Congress.
                Republicans increase their number by two.
           There will be 45 Democratic women in the 109th Congress.
                Democrats increase their number by three.

      Republicans gained 4 seats.
        Two seats in Louisiana will be decided in early December.
Gubernatorial Outcome
      Democratic incumbent Ruth Ann Minner was re-elected.

      Democrat Claire McCaskill seeking the open Missouri governorship was
       defeated

      Attorney General Christine Gregoire leads former State Senator Dino Rossi
       in Washington’s governors race.

      Indiana’s Mitch Daniels and Missouri’s Matt Blunt moved their respective
       states into the Republican column.

      Democrats John Lynch defeated incumbent Governor Craig Benson in
       New Hampshire and Brian Schweitzer captured the open Republican
       governorship in Montana.

      Republicans continue to control 27 governorships.
State Legislative Control

   Prior to Tuesday, Republicans held a 64 seat majority.
       House Chambers     PRE    2,715-GOP           2,676-DEM
                           POST   2,709-GOP           2,686-DEM   GOP Lost 6

       Senate Chambers    PRE    968-GOP             950-DEM
                           POST   966-GOP             949-DEM     GOP Lost 2

   Democrats captured control in six legislatures chambers
       Colorado Senate                     Colorado House
       North Carolina House                Oregon Senate
       Vermont House                       Washington Senate


   Republicans gain control in four legislative chambers
       Georgia House                       Oklahoma House
       Tennessee Senate                    Indiana House
Presidential Vote




                    Electoral Votes
                    Bush    286
                    Kerry   252
  Presidential Vote – Women Only
                         Bush            49%
                         Kerry           51%            Bush    49.72%
                                                        Kerry   49.81%




                                                                             Bush    49.61%
                                                                             Kerry   50.39%


Bush    47%
Kerry   52%


                                                                         Electoral Votes
                                                                   Bush               236
                                                                   Kerry              264
                                 Bush          49.14%
                                 Kerry         49.23%              Less than 1%       38
Presidential Vote - Women                               GOP +5%
65%
      61%

60%
                            56%

55%
                                     50%
             48%                                     54%    54%    48%
50%                 47%
                                                                   51%
             50%
                                     49%                    43%
45%

                    45%                       45%
                            44%                      38%
40%                                           37%


35%
      37%
      1972   1976   1980    1984     1988     1992   1996   2000   2004

                                   GOP      DEM
Presidential Vote – White Women                        GOP +6%
70%   68%

                           62%
65%

60%                                 56%                           55%
             52%    52%
55%
                                                           49%
50%
                                                    43%
45%                                          41%
                                                    48%    48%
             46%
40%                                                               44%
                                    43%
                                             41%
35%                 39%
                           38%
30%
      1972
      31%    1976   1980   1984     1988     1992   1996   2000   2004

                                  GOP      DEM
Presidential Vote – Women Under 29                     GOP +1%
60%
                           55%
      53%
55%                                                 58%
                                                                  56%
                                    49%
50%          47%                                           53%
             51%
                                    50%
                    49%                                           43%
45%                                          48%           42%

      45%           39%
                           44%
40%

                                             33%
35%
                                                    31%

30%
      1972   1976   1980   1984     1988     1992   1996   2000   2004

                                  GOP      DEM
Presidential Vote – Women 30 to 44                     GOP +5%
65%   62%


60%
                           54%
55%
                    50%              50%                           50%
             49%
50%                                                  54%
                                                            53%
                                                            45%

45%          49%                     49%                           49%

                           45%                38%
40%                                                  37%
                                              43%
                    41%
35%
      36%
30%
      1972   1976   1980   1984      1988     1992   1996   2000   2004

                                  GOP       DEM
Presidential Vote – Women 45 to 59                      GOP +5%
65%   62%


60%                        57%

             53%
55%                                  52%
                    50%
                                                                   49%
50%                                                         53%
                                                     52%
                                                            44%    50%
45%                                  48%
             46%                              40%    40%
                    44%
40%
                           42%                42%

35%
      1972
      36%    1976   1980   1984      1988     1992   1996   2000   2004

                                  GOP       DEM
Presidential Vote – Women 60+                          GOP +7%
70%   70%

65%
                           58%
60%
                    52%
55%          50%
                                    48%                           49%
                                                           56%
50%
                                    52%             53%
                                                    41%    42%    51%
45%          49%                             50%
                                             40%

40%
                    43%    42%
35%

30%

25%   29%
      1972   1976   1980   1984     1988     1992   1996   2000   2004

                                  GOP      DEM
Presidential Vote – Married Women               GOP +6%
60%    59%

                                                       55%
                 54%
55%

                                                49%
50%



45%                                      43%
                                         48%    48%
                 46%
                           40%
                                                       44%
40%
       41%                 41%

35%
       1984      1988      1992          1996   2000   2004

                                  GOP   DEM
Presidential Vote – Unmarried Women             GOP +5%
65%

60%
                                                63%
                                         62%           62%
55%
       49%       57%
50%
                           53%
       50%       42%
45%
                                                       37%
40%
                                                32%
35%                        31%
                                         28%
30%

25%
       1984      1988      1992          1996   2000   2004

                                  GOP   DEM
Presidential Vote – Suburban Women                  GOP +4%
65%

60%            57%
      54%
                       53%
55%
                                                           49%
50%                                          53%    45%
                                                    52%
                                                           50%
45%                             41%
                       46%                   39%
                                45%
40%            43%

35%
      36%
30%
      1980     1984    1988     1992         1996   2000   2004

                              GOP      DEM
Presidential Vote – Independent Women                  GOP +4%
65%   63%
                           59%
60%
             55%

55%                                 52%
                    50%

50%                                                               46%
                                                                  52%
                                                           51%
45%                                                 49%    42%
                                    46%
40%
             42%                                    34%
                           40%               40%
35%                                          31%

30%   34%           34%
      1972   1976   1980   1984     1988     1992   1996   2000   2004

                                  GOP      DEM
Presidential Vote – Women with some college          GOP +3%
65%
               58%
60%
                        54%
55%    52%
                                                            51%
                                                     48%
50%                                           53%
                                                     50%
45%                                                         49%
                                 39%
                        45%                   38%
40%
                                 42%
               41%
35%    39%


30%
       1980    1984     1988     1992         1996   2000   2004

                               GOP      DEM
Presidential Vote – Women college graduates          GOP +5%
65%

60%

55%             52%
                        49%                          57%
50%                                                         54%
                                              53%           45%
                        51%
45%    42%
                                 48%                 40%
                47%                           39%
40%    44%                       36%

35%

30%
       1980     1984    1988     1992         1996   2000   2004

                               GOP      DEM
Competitive Senate Races By Women’s Vote

             GOP Candidate      DEM Candidate   GOP Advantage
AK           Murkowski-45%      Knowles-49%        -4%
CO           Coors-45%          Salazar-53%        -8%
FL           Martinez-46%       Castor-53%         -7%
GA           Isakson-55%        Majette-44%        +11%
LA           Vitter-49%         John-28%           +21%
                                Kennedy-17%        +32%
NC           Burr-49%           Bowles-50%         -1%
OK           Coburn-51%         Carson-43%         +8%
SC           DeMint-49%         Tenenbaum-49%      EVEN
SD           Thune-49%          Daschle-51%        -2%
Issue that mattered most

  Moral Values                                            21%

                                                                        Bush Advantage
 Economy/Jobs                                           20%
                                                                      Terrorism     70%

     Terrorism                                    18%                 Moral Values 59%
                                                                      Taxes          6%
          Iraq                              15%
                                                                      Education     -51%
   Health Care                  8%                                    Iraq          -53%
                                                                      Health Care   -59%
        Taxes              5%
                                                                      Economy/Jobs -66%
    Education         4%



                 0%   5%             10%   15%      20%         25%
Quality that mattered most

   Will Bring Change                                                     25%



Clear Stand on Issues                                       17%                         Bush Advantage
                                                                                 Religious faith      81%
       Strong Leader                                      16%
                                                                                 Strong leader        71%

 Honest/Trustworthy                           11%
                                                                                 Clear stand on issues 52%
                                                                                 Honest/Trustworthy 42%
 Cares About People                      10%                                     Cares about people   -53%
                                                                                 Intelligent          -84%
           Intelligent              8%
                                                                                 Will bring change    -91%

      Religious Faith              7%


                         0%   5%        10%         15%           20%   25%    30%
Missouri vs. Washington State


Missouri
Bush-Kerry                      54%-47%   +7%
Bond-Farmer                     54%-45%   +9%
Blunt-McCaskill                 50%-49%   +1%

Washington
Bush-Kerry                      42%-57%   -15%
Rossi-Gregoire                  44%-54%   -10%
Nethercutt-Murray               39%-60%   21%
Conclusion
      The President’s success in attracting the woman’s vote was not an accident or a
       one-time occurrence.

          The Bush-Cheney campaign made the women’s vote a priority.
            A National Steering Committee of and for was established.
            State Chairs in every state were named.
            County Chairs in every county were appointed.

          Over 100,000 W Stands for Women volunteers were recruited and urged to:
            Send emails to their contacts.
            Call into and appear on talk radio.
            Work their business and social networks.

          Outreach was done to female Small Business Owners.

          Women were encouraged to focus on issues such as:
            America’s Security;
            Personal economic security;
            Availability and affordability of health care; and
            Education, including the No Child Left Behind Act.
President Bush improved his standing among every female voter group

                           % of the 2004   Bush's 2000   Bush's 2004    Bush Vote
                            Electorate     Performance   Performance   Improvement
Married Women                  32%             49%            55%           6%
White Women                    41%             49%            55%           6%
Women w/Some college           18%             48%            51%           3%
Women 30-44                    15%             45%            50%           5%
Suburban Women                 24%             45%            49%           4%
Women w/Out Any College         2%             44%            49%           5%
Women 45-59                    17%             44%            49%           5%
Women 60+                      13%             42%            49%           7%
Women                          54%             43%            48%           5%
Independent Women              13%             42%            46%           4%
Female College Graduates       22%             40%            45%           5%
Women 18-29                     9%             42%            43%           1%
Unmarried Women                22%             32%            37%           5%
African American Women          7%              6%            10%           4%

				
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posted:9/15/2012
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