Climate Change by 7HC0YF

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									     Teaching the Physics
              of
       Climate Change
            Part 2
This ppt available on
www.vicphysics.org                         Keith Burrows
- Teachers                                 AIP Education Committee
- Teaching the Science of Climate Change   PHYSCON Feb 2008
     Human induced changes
 How can we understand it?
  – It’s all a matter of physics!
IPCC SynRep
    Human induced changes
 How can we understand it?
  – Computer models are the only way of taking all
    this into account.
  – Use basic physics to calculate movement of heat,
    air, water, between small blocks of the
    atmosphere.
  – Here’s the basic physics:
    Human induced changes
 Climate models and their predictions.

  – These are just F = ma
    applied to moving fluids



  – This is conservation of
    mass

  – This governs the way
    heat flows between
    systems
Human induced changes
 Climate models and their predictions.

  – The climate system is modelled
    as cells of air (or water) and the
    equations are applied to see
    how much air/heat flows
    between each pair of cells
  – This is repeated all around the
    Earth
  – The models have improved by
    making the cells smaller
  – They are now about 110 km
    square by 1 km high
     Human induced changes
 Climate models and their predictions.
  – The initial conditions have to be fed into the
    model and then it generates weather and climate
    patterns over hours, days, years or centuries!
  – Here is the result of one:
Courtesy of Graeme Pearman
     Human induced changes
 Climate models and their predictions.
  – Models are tested to see if they generate past
    known climate patterns.
  – They are becoming more and more accurate.
    over hours, days (7 day forecasts), years or
    centuries!
  – Anthropogenic factors can be added/removed
 The science of climate change
     Human induced changes
 Climate models and their predictions.
  – The IPCC has just released the AR4 Synthesis
    Report which contains the most detailed and
    worrying predictions yet.
     Human induced changes
 Climate models and their predictions.
  – The IPCC has just released the AR4 Synthesis
    Report which contains the most detailed and
    worrying predictions yet.
     Human induced changes
 Climate models and their predictions.
  – The following diagrams are taken from the
    AR4 Synthesis Report
    Human induced changes
 There is one problem.
 The IPCC report is based on thoroughly
  reviewed work which is now several years
  old.
 Because of the processes it goes through
  it is very conservative.
 A number of developments have occurred
  since it was put together.
      Human induced changes
 The understanding of the
  various feedback effects
  has improved considerably
 This is a report given to the
  UK parliament June 2007.
 It outlines recent research
  showing that feedback
  effects are more worrying
  than previously thought.
                                 Overview
 Climate science
   – Earth’s energy balance
   – Interactions between EMR and the atmosphere
   – The effect of changes in the system
 Human induced changes
   –   The release of millions of years of stored energy
   –   Is the climate changing?
   –   How can we understand it?
   –   Climate models and their predictions.
 What can we do?
   –   Fossil fuels
   –   Reduce energy use
   –   Lower CO2 options
   –   Sustainable options
 The human response
   – Sceptics, deniers, avoiders
   – Change the light bulbs
   – The need for real change
 Education
   – That’s where we come in
          What can we do?
 Fossil fuels
  – We have to reduce them but we are extremely
    dependant on them
          What can we do?
 Fossil fuels
  – Cutting car use has to
    be a priority




                 ABS
           What can we do?
 Fossil fuels
  – One of the dirtiest power stations in the world!
         What can we do?
 Reduce energy use
  – Better forms of transport
         What can we do?
 Reduce energy use
  – Better forms of transport – maybe these?
        What can we do?
 Reduce energy use
  – Better forms of transport – certainly these
        What can we do?
 Reduce energy use
  – Better forms of transport – definitely these
       What can we do?
 Reduce energy use
  – These are a problem!
          What can we do?
 Reduce energy
  use
  – This could be
    fun. Maybe we
    need to be a bit
    more relaxed
    about getting
    places!
          What can we do?
 Reduce energy
  use
  – Maybe video
    conferencing
    could reduce
    our need for
    ‘business’
    travel?
         What can we do?
 Lower CO2 options
  – Sequestration of CO2 from power stations - ?
  – More efficient coal stations
  – Combined cycle gas generators
         What can we do?
 Lower CO2 options
  – Nuclear ?
             What can we do?
 Sustainable options




     60 kilowatt (10 year ago)   1300 kilowatt now
                    What can we do?
   Sustainable options

We make per day about:
5 – 10 kWh
Feed in to grid about
3 – 6 kWh
Draw from grid about
2 – 4 kWh
                  What can we do?
 Sustainable options


Gas used for hot water
since installation last
October ago:

 NONE at all
         What can we do?
 Sustainable options
          What can we do?
 Sustainable options
  – Geothermal – ‘hot rocks’
  – Potentially a very large resources
  – (get pic!)
          What can we do?
 Sustainable options
  – The ‘base load problem’?
  – We are no where near having that problem yet!



                                         Spot the
                                         renewables!
          What can we do?
 Sustainable options – base load?
  – Wide distribution of sources evens out the load
  – Linking them is not as difficult as we are told
  – Solar feeds power in at peak use time
  – Pumped storage is used now (Snowy, Tas)
  – Other storage options possible in future
  – HVDC
          What can we do?
 Sustainable options – HVDC
  – Energy carried in transmission line is area
    under the V² graph
  – V is limited by corona discharge to ~ 800 kV
    (hence 500 kV AC lines)
  – So energy carried by DC is twice that of same
    value peak voltage


                                  DC power
                                  AC power
          What can we do?
 Sustainable options – HVDC
  – High Voltage DC transmission
  – Basslink provides peak and stores excess
            What can we do?
 Sustainable options – HVDC
  – Making big difference to long
    distance transmission
  – Carries twice the power
  – Can go 1000’s of km
    (AC < 1000 km)
           What can we do?
 Sustainable options – HVDC
  – High power high voltage semiconductors have
    made the difference
           What can we do?
 Sustainable options
  – Area needed
  to collect ALL
  of Australia’s
  energy use.
What can we do?
          What can we do?
 Sustainable options
  Where are the solar collectors?
          What can we do?
 Sustainable options
  This is in sunny Germany!
          What can we do?
 Sustainable options
  We have to get away from this...
               What can we do?
 Sustainable options
  ...to this
                                 Overview
 Climate science
   – Earth’s energy balance
   – Interactions between EMR and the atmosphere
   – The effect of changes in the system
 Human induced changes
   –   The release of millions of years of stored energy
   –   Is the climate changing?
   –   How can we understand it?
   –   Climate models and their predictions.
 What can we do?
   –   Fossil fuels
   –   Reduce energy use
   –   Lower CO2 options
   –   Sustainable options
 The human response
   – Sceptics, deniers, avoiders
   – Change the light bulbs
   – The need for real change
 Education
   – That’s where we come in
       The human response
 Sceptics, deniers, avoiders
                            Bolt talks of “Alarmist of the
                            Year Tim Flannery” flying
                            around the world, then has a
                            go at the UN Climate Change
                            conference in Bali next month
                            where 12000 people will fly in:
                            “Hypocrisy is too small a word
                            for so monstrous a circus. If it
                            wasn't for the fact the planet
                            actually hasn't warmed for nine
                            years now, I'd cry.”
       The human response
 Sceptics, deniers, avoiders
       The human response
 Sceptics, deniers, avoiders
  – “We are in a cooling phase” Yes but…
       The human response
 Change the light bulbs
  – Yes, and turn down the thermostat,
  – but that is a very tiny start
     The human response




– Is there
  something a
  bit odd here?
The human response
       The human response
 The need for real change
  – It will cost
  – But many jobs could be created
  – It will cost much more if we don’t start now
 But remember them?
              Education
 That’s where we come in
  – The science leads to understanding
  – The need for optimism
 This ppt can be downloaded from
www.vicphysics.org – Teachers
- Feedback:
- keith.b@physics.org
- Resources (more at end):


    realclimate.org




                                    $1
                                 Overview
 Climate science
   – Earth’s energy balance
   – Interactions between EMR and the atmosphere
   – The effect of changes in the system
 Human induced changes
   –   The release of millions of years of stored energy
   –   Is the climate changing?
   –   How can we understand it?
   –   Climate models and their predictions.
 What can we do?
   –   Fossil fuels
   –   Reduce energy use
   –   Lower CO2 options
   –   Sustainable options
 The human response
   – Sceptics, deniers, avoiders
   – Change the light bulbs
   – The need for real change
 Education
   – That’s where we come in
 6.2.2 Role of scientists in the climate debate
 These stark conclusions about the threat posed by global
  climate change and implications for fossil fuel use are not
  yet appreciated by essential governing bodies, as
  evidenced by ongoing plans to build coal-fired power plants
  without CO2 capture and sequestration. In our view, there
  is an acute need for science to inform society about the
  costs of failure to address global warming, because of a
  fundamental difference between the threat posed by
  climate change and most prior global threats.
   In the nuclear standoff between the Soviet Union and United States, a crisis
    could be precipitated only by action of one of the parties. In contrast, the
    present threat to the planet and civilization, with the United States and China
    now the principal players (though, as Fig. 10 shows, Europe also has a large
    responsibility), requires only inaction in the face of clear scientific evidence of
    the danger.
   Thus scientists are faced with difficult choices between communication of
    scientific information to the public and focus on basic research, as there are
    inherent compromises in any specific balance. Former American Vice
    President Al Gore, at a plenary session of the December 2006 meeting of the
    American Geophysical Union, challenged earth scientists to become involved
    in informing the public about global climate change. The overwhelmingly
    positive audience reaction to his remarks provides hope that the large gap
    between scientific understanding and public knowledge about climate change
    may yet be closed.
   J. Hansen1,2, M. Sato2, R. Ruedy3, P. Kharecha2, A. Lacis1,4, R. Miller1,5, L. Nazarenko2, K.
    Lo3, G. A. Schmidt1,4,
   G. Russell1, I. Aleinov2, S. Bauer2, E. Baum6, B. Cairns5, V. Canuto1, M. Chandler2, Y. Cheng3,
    A. Cohen6,
   A. Del Genio1,4, G. Faluvegi2, E. Fleming7, A. Friend8, T. Hall1,5, C. Jackman7, J. Jonas2, M.
    Kelley8, N. Y. Kiang1,
   D. Koch2,9, G. Labow7, J. Lerner2, S. Menon10, T. Novakov10, V. Oinas3, Ja. Perlwitz5, Ju.
    Perlwitz2, D. Rind1,4,
   A. Romanou1,4, R. Schmunk3, D. Shindell1,4, P. Stone11, S. Sun1,11, D. Streets12, N.
    Tausnev3, D. Thresher4, N. Unger2,
   M. Yao3, and S. Zhang2
   1NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
   2Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY, USA
   3Sigma Space Partners LLC, New York, NY, USA
   4Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
   5Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
   6Clean Air Task Force, Boston, MA, USA
   7NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
   8Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette
    Cedex, France
   9Department of Geology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
   10Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
   11Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
   12Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, USA
   Received: 23 October 2006 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 5 December 2006
   Revised: 29 March 2007 – Accepted: 15 April 2007 – Published: 7 May 2007
 Resources for teachers - text:
 The Weather Makers – Tim Flannery
    – Good, popular
 Climate Change: Turning up the heat
    – Barry Pittock – highly qualified climate scientist
 Rough Guides: Climate Change
    – Sound, quite good description of the science
 Heat – George Monbiot
    – A sound journalistic approach to action
 Scientific American August 2007
    – Good description of the scientific position
 Physics World Feb 2007
    – Good description of the models
  (Also an article about a ‘sceptic’ – Lindzen)
 Physics World July 2007
    – ‘Bright ideas’ about physics and the energy problem
 Also see Scientific American Jan 2008
  for more on Solar Energy
 Resources for teachers - web:
 RealClimate.org
   – Good, run by very eminent climate scientists with
     answers to questions and sceptics.
 United Nations Environment Programme:
   – www.unep.org/geo/geo4/media/
   – Download the Global Environment Outlook report
 Climate Code Red
   – David Spratt and Philip Sutton
   – Download (free) from
   – www.climatecodered.net

								
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