# ??????????? (Decision Making) by hd3hIc57

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```									                                                             Decision Making 1

(Decision Making)

1.                            (Decision Making Under Risk)
2.                                  (Decision Making Under Uncertainty)

1.                            (Decision Making Under Risk)

1.1 E.V. (Expected Value :                )
1.2 E.O.L. (Expected opportunity cost :                )
Decision Making 2

1.1 E.V. (Expected Value :             )

1.                         (
)
2.
1
3.
4.

1

:        )

300               200                150
200               150                180
-20                10                 50

:
:            2:5:3                                                  EV.

P
Decision Making 3

0.2              300                200                     150
0.5              200                150                     180
0.3              -20                 10                     50

(

-                            = (0.2*300) + (0.5*200) + (0.3* -20) = 60+100-6 =154**
-                                  = (0.2*200) + (0.5*150) +(0.3*10) = 118
-                                   = (0.2*150) + (0.5*180) + ( 0.3*50) = 135

EV                              EV

1.2 E.O.L. (Expected opportunity cost :                       )

1.
2.
3.

2                                   EOL

P

0.2        300          0     200         100         150         150
0.5        200          0     150         50          180          20
0.3        -20         70      10         40           50           0
Decision Making 4

-

(                                                                         300-200 = 100
300-150 =
150
ผ      บแ

-                                 (EOL)

)     EOL                      =
(0.2*0) + (0.5*0) + (0.3*70) = 0 + 0 + 21 = 21**
EOL                            = (0.2*100) +(0.5*50) + (0.3*40) = 57
EOL                           = (0.2*150) + (0.5*20) + (0.3*0) = 40

-

3

(E)        P                                          (A)
Decision Making 5

(                       (A2                    (
A1)                  )                       A3)
0.3             70                  80                       100
0.1             70                  40                        50
0.6             70                  60                        60

EV

(A)
(E)    P
(A1)                (A2)                     (A3)
0.3       0.3*70 = 21          0.3*80 = 24                   100
0.1       0.1*70 = 7            0.1*40 = 4                    50
0.6       0.6*70 = 42          0.6*60 = 36                    60
70                  64**                  (          )

(EV)                A2 (

EOL      -

P
(A1)               (A2)                   (A3)
0.3     70   (70-70=0)80       (80-70=10)         100 (100-70=30)
0.1     70 (70-40=30) 40       (40-40=0)          50   (50-40=10)
0.6     70 (70-60=10) 60       (60-60=0)          60    (60-60=0)
Decision Making 6

=0

-      EOL
E                P        A1                A2               A3
0.3    0*0.3 = 0        10*0.3 = 3       30*0.3 = 9
0.1    30*0.1 =3         0*0.1 = 0       10*0.1 = 1
0.6    10*0.6 =6         0*0.6 = 0        0*0.6 =0
9                3**              10
EOL                                                           2

EPPI (Expected payoff with Perfect information)       EVPI
(Expected Value Perfect Information)

EPPI (Expected payoff with Perfect information)

4                     EPPI

P
Decision Making 7

0.2              300*                  200               150
0.5              200*                  150               180
0.3               -20                   10               50*

EPPI = (0.2*300) + (0.5*200) + (0.3*50) = 175

บ         EPPI

(EV)
21
EVPI (Expected Value Perfect Information)
EPPI       EVPI
EVPI = EPPI – EV(Max)

EVPI = 21

21

EVPI                                           (EOL)
EOL                     2
     EVPI = EPPI – EV(Max) = EOL(Min)

2.                                   แ          (Decision Making Under Uncertainty)
Decision Making 8

2.1 MaxiMax Criterion
2.2 MaxiMin Criterion
2.3 Minimax Regret Criterion

2.1 MaxiMax Criterion

2.2 MaxiMin Criterion

2.3 Minimax Regret Criterion

5

MaxiMax , MaxiMin , Minimax regreat
(                   )

20                  10                    5
5                  15                    8
-10                  -3                   -1
Decision Making 9

20                10                   5
5                 15                   8
-10                -3                  -1
MaxiMax
1.                              20                15                  5
2.                              20
MaxiMin
1.                             -10                -3                  -1
2.                                                                    -1

- MaxiMax                                 - MaxiMin

Minimax regreat

0

Note                    ผ

20-20 = 0        20-10 = 10          20-5 = 15
15-5 = 10         15-15 = 0           15-8 = 7
-1-(-10) =9       -1-(-3) = 2         -1-(-1) = 0
1.Max                            10                10                  15
2.            Min                10                10
Decision Making 10

Minimax Regret

6

MaxiMax,
MaxiMin,       Minimax Regret

9         6
10         4
5        12

- MaxiMax                                      MaxiMax
)
- MaxiMin

9            6
10            4
5           12
MaxiMax
1.                               5             4
2.                                             4
Decision Making 11

MaxiMin
1.                                     10                           12
2.                                     10

MaxiMax                                    MaxiMin

- Minimax Regret

9-6 = 3                    6-6 = 0
10-4 = 6                    4-4 = 0
5-5 = 0                   12-5 = 7
1.                 Max                   6                          7
2.                       Min             6

Minimax Regret

7

500                 10
, 2, 3, 4
(                                                                        500, 1,000 ,
1,500              )

2,000                                                         1, 2, 3
Decision Making 12

(              )
)

500     1,000             1,500              2,000
(5,000)   (10,000)          (15,000)           (20,000)
500     (10,000)        5,000        0              -5,000            -10,000
1,000   (20,000)        5,000     10,000            5,000                 0
1,500   (30,000)        5,000     10,000            15,000             10,000
2,000   (40,000)        5,000     10,000            15,000             20,000

MaxiMax, MaxiMin         Minimax Regret

แผ ผ                           (Decision Tree)

-
-
EV (Expected Value)
Decision Making 13

1

1
2

1
2

2

8

0.4

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