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									              Analytical framework

“The restructuring of the European [defense] industry is
far from being a simple pro rata adjustment of supply to
changes in demands arising from objective changes in
the security environment. It is inextricably bound up with
the development of institutions, policy paradigms (in both
the military and the industrial domains), business
networks, and relationships between companies and
governments.”

John Lovering, “Which Way to Turn? The European Defense Industry After the Cold War,”
in Anne Markusen and Sean Costigan, eds., Arming the Future: A Defense Industry for the
21st Century (New York: Council on Foreign Relations Press, 1999), 342.
                                     What is strategy?
• Since strategic problems are “wicked” & ultimate outcomes
  are not predictable, strategies are best guesses (heuristics)
                  “He who predicts the future lies, even if he tells the
                  truth”
                                                    — Arab Proverb

• In competitive situations, strategies are about identifying or
  creating asymmetries that can be exploited to help achieve
  one’s ultimate objectives despite the active, opposing efforts
  of adversaries or competitors to achieve theirs
                  “The quintessential strategy story is of unexpected
                  strength brought against discovered weakness. Not
                  simply the deft wielding of power, but the actual
                  discovery of power in a situation, an insight into
                  a decisive asymmetry.”
                                                — Richard Rumelt, 2004
Slide 2 – Source: Barry Watts 2008
             A Cognitive View of the Levels of War
                             TRADITIONAL                                                COGNITIVE
                                                          Force the withdrawal
                                                          of Iraqi forces from
                                                          Kuwait, restore
                                                          Kuwait’s government,
                                        National Policy   promote Persian Gulf                    REASONED
                                                          security, etc.                          “REFRAMING” of
                                                                                                  “WICKED”
                                                                                                  PROBLEMS based
                                                          Gain air control.                       on data collection,
Strategic Level                                           attack Iraqi
                                           Theater                                                filtering, &
                                           Strategy
                                                          leadership & C2,                        processing (both
                                                          destroy Republican       Strategic or
                                                                                                  conscious &
                                                          Guard forces, free       Operational    unconscious)
                                                          Kuwait City, etc.          Design
                                                                                                  Requires analysis
                                         Campaigns
                                                          Operation Desert                        & synthesis,
                                                          Storm (17 Jan-28 Feb                    judgment, as well
                                                          1991)                                   as insight (coup
                                                                                                  d’oeil)
Operational Level
                                                          3rd Army attacks to
                                           Major
                                                          destroy the                        COGNITIVE BOUNDARY
                                         Operations
                                                          Republican Guard

                                                          VII Corps attacks the                   INTUITIVE (“gut”)
                                           Battles        Iraqi 12th Corps & the                  RESPONSES to
                                                          Republican Guard          Tactical      “TAME”
                                                                                   Responses      PROBLEMS based
                                                          2nd ACR engages the                     on perceptual
Tactical Level                          Engagements       Tawakalna Division                      pattern
                                                          at 73 Easting                           recognition
                                                                                                  conditioned by
                                        Small-Unit &      M1A1 tank engages &                     prior combat
                                        Crew Action       destroys six T-72s                      experience &
                                                                                                  realistic training

Slide 3 -- Source: Barry Watts (2008)

								
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