Economics and Rural Development Seminar

Document Sample
Economics and Rural Development Seminar Powered By Docstoc
					 Using Spatial Microsimulation
   Modelling Techniques and
Geographic Information Systems
  to Estimate the Demand for
Outdoor Recreation Activities in
            Ireland



           John Cullinan
    RERC Student Presentation Day
           June 1st, 2006




          Estimating the Demand for
             Outdoor Recreation
              Activities in Ireland
          Background

 Undertaking a Ph.D. in Environmental
  Economics
 Research topic: ‘The use of spatial
  microsimulation modelling techniques
  to estimate the demand for outdoor
  recreation activities in Ireland’
 Involves spatial modelling of visitor
  numbers
 Two principal approaches under
  consideration
    Link recreation demand models to SMILE
    Develop new ‘spatial interaction models’


             Estimating the Demand for
                Outdoor Recreation
                 Activities in Ireland
         Motivation I

Extend SMILE to consider impact
 of (increased) outdoor recreation
 activity on local economy
Investigate potential for areas to
 diversify to agri-tourism
Identify potential agri-tourism
 hotspots




           Estimating the Demand for
              Outdoor Recreation
               Activities in Ireland
                     Motivation II

Focus of benefit transfer*
 literature has been on transfer of
 value estimates e.g. WTP, CS
TEV ~ fn(CS,Visits)
Need for estimates of visits – role
 for visitor arrival function transfer
Research unique in considering
 spatial microsimulation
 techniques and GIS in VAFT
  * Benefit transfer (BT) methods involve the transferral of existing estimates of non-market
  values from an original study site s to a different policy site p. When the transfer is
  conducted by means of an estimated function or equation, the process is known as benefit
  function transfer.




                           Estimating the Demand for
                              Outdoor Recreation
                               Activities in Ireland
Summary of Spatial
 Interaction Model


  Generate a                Estimate a
   spatially               transferable        Calculate a travel
  distributed,           ‘distance-decay’       distance matrix
   synthetic                 function              using GIS
 population of
recreationalists




                        Estimate the total
                         demand for site
                         visits across all
                         recreationalists




                   Estimating the Demand for
                      Outdoor Recreation
                       Activities in Ireland
Spatially Distributed,
Synthetic Population




      Estimating the Demand for
         Outdoor Recreation
          Activities in Ireland
  Transferable ‘Distance-
     Decay Function’
Two models under consideration
    Full model:   T  f ( D, S , R)
    Reduced model: T  f ( D, S )


Data from Hynes et al. (2005)
    Number of visits to 11 different sites
    Distance to 11 sites
    Assessment of site attributes
    Socio-economic characteristics



            Estimating the Demand for
               Outdoor Recreation
                Activities in Ireland
  Transferable ‘Distance-
     Decay Function’
 Dependent variable is a count data
  variable
 Estimate both Poisson and negative
  binomial models
 Data allows estimation of both pooled
  multi-site and panel data models
 Estimated models used to predict the
  number of visits by individual i to site j
                                2              7
        ˆ
                     ˆ       ˆ              ˆ
                 exp( 0    k Di , k    l  2 S j ,l )
         i, j
                               k 1           l 1

 Summing over all recreationalists gives
  an estimate of total demand per site
                                 N
                          ˆ      ˆ
                         T j   i , j
                                i 1


                     Estimating the Demand for
                        Outdoor Recreation
                         Activities in Ireland
Travel Distance Matrix




      Estimating the Demand for
         Outdoor Recreation
          Activities in Ireland
Road Network Analysis




      Estimating the Demand for
         Outdoor Recreation
          Activities in Ireland
Estimates of Total Trips
Estimates of Total Trips – Preferred Reduced Form and Full Models

                                Reduced Form Model               Full Model
Liffey                                61,377                       60,425
Clifden                               16,241                       16,346
Curragower                            29,138                       28,802
Boyne                                 23,009                       22,257
Roughty                                6,998                       7,290
Clare Glens                           10,028                       10,271
Annamoe                               22,215                       22,940
Barrow                                15,522                       15,534
Dargle                                18,372                       19,180
Inny                                  15,306                       15,217
Boluisce                              12,544                       12,758

Total Trips                           230,750                       231,021




Estimates of Total Trips to Other Rivers – Preferred Reduced Form and Full Models

                                Reduced Form Model               Full Model
Inchavore                             10,899                       11,000
Middle Flesk                          19,176                       20,072
Bun Doracha                           13,623                       13,503
Easky                                  4,670                       4,913
Duff                                   4,092                       4,043

Total Trips                           52,460                        53,531




                       Estimating the Demand for
                          Outdoor Recreation
                           Activities in Ireland
   Selected Future Work
 Refine current methodology for in-sample
  prediction
     Data for synthetic population
     Undertake ‘road network analysis’
 Develop tests of convergent validity of
  within-sample estimates
 Develop new model for predicting demand at
  out-of-sample sites
     Two-stage estimation process required
 Assess impact of exogenous changes in site
  attributes
 Apply methodologies to other recreation
  activities e.g. walking, forest visits
 Incorporation of recreationalists’
  characteristics into SMILE
 Econometric issues

               Estimating the Demand for
                  Outdoor Recreation
                   Activities in Ireland

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:3
posted:9/14/2012
language:English
pages:12