Docstoc

Indonesia Economic Update

Document Sample
Indonesia Economic Update Powered By Docstoc
					dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   2
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   3
Name          : Dr. Dadang Solihin, SE, MA
Place of Birth : Bandung, 6 November 1961
Campus                        University, Jln
              : Darma Persada University Jln. Radin Inten II (Terusan
                Casablanca) Pondok Kelapa – Jakarta 13450
Office Ph/Fax : +6221 864 9057
Cell Phone
C ll Ph       : +6281 2932 2202
PIN BB        : 277878F0
Email         : dadangsol@yahoo.com
Website       : dadang-solihin.blogspot.com
Japan         : 1. Regional Development and Planning Training Course, JICA, Sapporo,
Experience           Hokkaido, 1999
                2.   Local Government Administration Training Course, JICA,
                     Higashihiroshima, Hiroshima, 2001
                3.   International Symposium on Intergovernmental Transfers in Asian
                     Countries, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo, 2001
                4
                4.   Assistant Professor at G d
                     A i       P f                     School f Asia-Pacific S di
                                             Graduate S h l of A i P ifi Studies,
                     Waseda University, Tokyo, 2004
                5.   Assistant Professor at Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies,
                     Waseda University, Tokyo, 2005
                6
                6.                                              Asia Pacific Studies,
                     Assistant Professor at Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies
                     Waseda University, Tokyo, 2006
                7.   Assistant Professor at Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies,
                     Waseda University, Tokyo, 2007
                8
                8.                                          Administration,
                     Assistant Visiting Professor on Public Administration National
                     Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS), Tokyo 2012
                                           dadang-solihin.blogspot.com                  4
                               Outline
•   Remarkable Indonesia
•   Regional Economic Performance
•   Post Crisis Economic Performance
•   Persistent Disparity Amidst High
    Economic Growth
•   Master Plan to Accelerate Economic
    Growth (MP3EI) and Poverty Reduction
    (MP3KI)
•   Political Update



Sources:
1. Ginandjar Kartasasmita (2012)
                         g       (2012)
2. Investment Coordinating Board (    )
                             dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   5
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   6
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   7
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   8
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   9
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   10
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   11
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   12
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   13
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   14
                       United Nations Conference on Trade
                       and Development (UNCTAD):




dadang-solihin.blogspot.com                             15
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   16
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   17
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   18
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   19
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   20
    eg o a co o c e o a ce
   Regional Economic Performance
          Major Regions (yoy,%)                                                     (y y, )
                                                                              ASEAN (yoy,%)
 % yoy
                                               4,0           %, yoy
4,0        2,92,5
           29 27                                      29
                                                      2,9    16
                 2,7
                                1,82,01,7                    14                                 2009            2010
2,0
                                                             12                                 2011*           2012*
0,0                                                          10
                                                   -0,7
-2,0                                                          8

       -2,6                                                   6
-4,0
                             -4,1                             4

-6,0                                                          2
                                            -6,3              0
-8,0                                                              Indonesia   Singapore   Malaysia   Thailand    Phillipina
                                                             -2
              US                Europe
                                    p            p
                                               Japan
                                                             -4
*Projection                    2009 2010 2011* 2012*         *Projection
Source: WEO, IMF Juni 2011                                   Source: WEO, IMF Juni 2011

                                             dadang-solihin.blogspot.com                                                21
    Growth
GDP Gro th




 dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   22
Why I d   i     More R ili t?
Wh Indonesia is M    Resilient?

                           •   Measures taken in 1998/1999
                                      y
                               not only to overcome the
                               crises
                           •   but also to better prepare the
                                             i tf t
                               economy against future
                               (external) economic shocks,
                               establishing safety
                               mechanism and crisis
                               protocol.




          dadang-solihin.blogspot.com                      23
                                                                                                             1/2
            Export
            E port to GDP Ratio

45
        40.8
40                 39.1
                                                  34.0
                                                  34 0
35
                           32.7                            31.0
                                                                    29.4
30                                        32.1                                    29.9
                              30.5

25                                                                                                    26.4
                                                                                             24.6
                                                                                    24.1
20

15
     2000   2001    2002    2003       2004      2005    2006     2007     2008    2009    2010     2011




                                     dadang-solihin.blogspot.com                                             24
                                                                           2/2
          Export to GDP Ratio
       Compared to Other Regional Countries
                            Asian Countries
        Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Korea Taiwan Hong Kong


2006     116.5      47.5          234.4         73.7     39.7   68.0   205.2

2007     110.1      42.9          218.9         73.3     41.9   72.0   207.9

2008     103.0      37.2          233.4         76.4     53.0   73.0   212.4


2009      96.2      32.4          199.9         68.3     49.8   62.3   194.5

2010      97.4      35.0          211.1         71.3     52.4   73.6   222.9


                           dadang-solihin.blogspot.com                     25
Indonesia’s Export Destination
I d    i ’ E     t D ti ti




          dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   26
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   27
  Export
  E port




dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   28
R piah Mo ement
Rupiah Movement




   dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   29
Fiscal Deficit (%)




    dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   30
                       Debt Profile
  (Trillion Rp)                                                                     (% GDP)
 4,000 47%                                                                                    50%

 3,500                                                                                        45%
                   39%
                                                                                              40%
 3,000                     35%
                                    33%                                                       35%
 2,500                                      28%
                                                     26%                                      30%
                                                            25%    24%
 2,000
 2 000                                                                      22%               25%
                                                                                    20%
                                                                    824     807     808       20%
 1,500                                                      779
                                    853     754      774                                      15%
 1 000
 1,000       655   609     652
                                                                                              10%
   500                                      836      902   1,034 1,134 1,205 1,221            5%
             659   693     737      784
     0                                                                                        0%
             2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
                         Domestic          Foreign          % GDP (right)


               2005    2006      2007     2008     2009    2010    2011     2012    2013 2014
GDP            2,774   3,339     3,957    4,954   5,613    6,423   7,227    8,120   9,123 10,278
Total Debt     1,313   1,302     1,389    1,637   1,590    1,677   1,813    1,958   2,012 2,029
                               dadang-solihin.blogspot.com                                          31
     Debt to GDP Ratio
in Selected Countries (2009)




         dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   32
PRC = People’s Republic of China, UK = United Kingdom, US = United States.
1Daily stock price indexes of combined Shanghai and Shenzhen composites, weighted by respective market capitalizations

Source: ADB, 2011


                                        dadang-solihin.blogspot.com                                                      33
National Currency Reserve
  Net International Reserves




                           dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   34
Inflation




                              Source: BPS
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com             35
 Poverty




dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   36
Unemployment
Unemplo ment




  dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   37
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   38
Rising Gini Ratio




    dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   39
                         Regional Disparity
35
                                                                                                                                                                    31.9 32.0

30

25                                                                                                                                                                23.0
                                                                                                                                                           21.2
                                                                                                                                               19.6 19.7
20                                                                                                                                      18.8
                                                                                                                            16 9 17.5
                                                                                                                            16.9
                                                                                                           15.8 15.8 16.1
15                                                                                    13.9 14.214.2 14.6
                                                                               11.3
                                                                   10.3 10.7
10
 0                                       8.5 8.5 8.6 8.7 9.0 9.2
                                   7.4
                           6.6 6.8
               5.3 5.8 6.3
5    3.7 4.2


0




         P.Barat
          Keppri




       orontalo




          Papua
          Sumut
           Jambi




        Maluku
         Jakarta




           Yogya
        Sumbar




         Sumsel
           Babel


          Kaltim




            Aceh
           Sultra
            Jatim
         Banten




             NTT
       ampung
            Sulut




       engkulu
           Malut
          Kalbar




          Jateng




             NTB
        Sulteng
           Kalsel


        Kalteng




          Sulbar
           Jabar
              Bali




           Sulsel
             Riau




        S




      Be
      La

     Go
                                                  dadang-solihin.blogspot.com                                                                                            40
   Western vs Eastern Indonesia
                    % RGDP           1980          1990           2000           2010

                       WI             80             84            83             82

                       EI             20             16            17             18

                     %
                                    1980           1990           2000          2010
                  Population
                       WI             83            82             81             80

                       EI             17            18             19             20

                    Gini
                                    2007           2008           2009           2010
                  Coefficient
                       WI            0.33           0.31          0.32           0.35

                       EI            0.34           0.33          0.34           0.38

                          ,        ,    ,   , p ,         ,
Western Indonesia: Aceh, Sumut, Sumbar, Riau, Kepri, Jambi, Sumsel, Babel, Bengkulu, Lampung, DKI,
                                                                  ,      ,    g    ,    p g,     ,
Jabar, Banten, Jateng, DIY, Jatim, Bali
Eastern Indonesia: Kalbar, Kalteng, Kalsel, Kaltim, Sulut, Gorontalo, Sulteng, Sulsel, Sultra, Sulbar, NTB,
NTT, Maluku, Malut, Papua, Papua Barat

                                       dadang-solihin.blogspot.com                                     41
     Open Unemployment and
   Under-           (2005-
   Under-employment (2005-2010)
                                                                                                   2005                                                      2010
Open Unemployment (Not Working)                                                              11,9 Million (11,2%)                                         8,3 Million (7.1%)
Under employment
Under-employment (Working Less than 35 Hours/Week)                                          28,9         (30,8%)
                                                                                            28 9 Million (30 8%)                             33,3         (30.7%)
                                                                                                                                             33 3 Million (30 7%)



                                                     OPEN UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNDER
                                                            2001 - 2010




                                                                                                                                               MILLION)
                            LLION)




                                                                              11,9                             33,3
                                     33,5                                                                               12
                                                                                     10 9
                                                                                     10,9




                                                                                                                                       OYMENT (M
                   YMENT (MIL




                                     32,2                                                               31,6            11
                                                                       10,3
                                                                9,9                       10,0 31,1
                                     30,9                                               30,4                            10
                                                                                                  9,4
                                                          9,1




                                                                                                                             OPE UNEMPLO
                                                                                                           9,0
                                                                                                           90
           ER-EMPLOY




                                     29,6             28,9
                                                             29,2
                                                                           28,9 29,1                                    9
                                                                                                                  8,3
                                                    8,0
                                     28,3    27,7                   27,9                                                8




                                                                                                                               EN
        UNDE




                                        27                                                                              7
                                             2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

                                                    UNDER-EMPLOYMENT                    OPEN EMPLOYMENT


                                                               dadang-solihin.blogspot.com                                                                            42
                             p y       y g
                         Unemployment by Age
             3.500.000

                                                                              Age 15-24
                                                                                                %
             3.000.000                                                         Years
                                                                               2007 (Ø)         35
             2.500.000                                                         2008 (Ø)         29
                                                               31%
                                                                               2009 (Ø)         28
                                                              29%
 NEMPLOYED




             2.000.000
                                                                               2010 (Ø)         29
                                                                       15 -
UN




             1 500 000
             1.500.000                                                 19
                                                                       20 -   Ø = Average February and
                                                                       24
                                                                       25 -      August
                                                                       29
             1.000.000                                                 30 -
                                                                       34
                                                                       35 -
                                                                       39
                                                                       40 -
              500.000                                                  44
                                                                       45 -
                                                                       49
                                                                       50 -
                                                                       54
                     -
                         2007   2008   2009     2010     2011 *)


                                         dadang-solihin.blogspot.com                             43
                               Imbalance Economic and
                                Employment Structures
                         ECONOMIC STRUCTURE                                                      EMPLOYMENT STRUCTURE
                               2010                                                                        y
                                                                                                    February 2011
                Services (10,19%)      Agriculture (15,34%)
                                                                                        Social Services (15,30%)
      Finance (7,21%)
                                                                                        Finance (1,85%)
                                                                                                                                     Agriculture (38,17%)
Transportation (6,50%)                          Mining (11,15%)                 Transportation (5,02%)




   Trading (13,72%)                                                                   Trading (20,88%)
                                                                                                                                Mining (1,22%)
                                                      g( ,     )
                                          Manufacturing (24,82%)                             Construction (5,02%)
        Construction(10,29%)
        C t ti (10 29%)                                                                                                   Manufacturing (12 31%)
                                                                                                                          M   f t i (12,31%)
                                                                                        Electricity, gas, water (0,23%)
                  Electricity(0,78%)



                                                                                Unemployed
                                                               0%                  7%
                                                                  Others
                                        Manufacturing/
                                                                   15%
                                                 y
                                          Industry
                                             6%



                                                                  Agriculture
                                                                     72%


                                                              Poor Household
                                                   dadang-solihin.blogspot.com                                                                          44
Imbalance in Land Available for
   Farming Households (%)

                                            GINI RATIO
                                            0.562
                                            Households
                                            Land




Source: BPS

              dadang-solihin.blogspot.com                45
      Tradables and Non Tradables
          in     2001-
          i GDP 2001-2010 (%)
10,00
                                                                              8,96
 9,00                                                                                    8,55
                                                                                                                  8,19
                                                        7,81
 8,00                                                              7,43
                                             7,13
 7 00
 7,00                              6,30
                                                                                                    6,02
 6,00                   5,28
             4,89
 5,00                                                  3.81
                                                       3 81                                                      3.85
                      3.86                                                    3.85
 4,00                             3.51      3.23                   3.72                  3.47       3.05

 3,00                                                                         6,35       6,01                    6,10
          2.64                                           ,
                                                        5,69       5,50
                                  4,78       5,03
                                             5 03                                                   4,58
 2,00                  4,50
            3,64
 1,00
 0,00
            2001       2002       2003       2004       2005      2006       2007       2008       2009          2010
                               PDB
                               GDP          Sektor non tradable
                                             Non Tradable                        Sektor
                                                                                Tradable tradable
Sektor tradable: (1) Agriculture, Animal Husbandry, Forest and Fishery, (2) Mining (3) Manufacturing Industry.
Sektor non-tradable: 1. Electricity, Gas, Clean Water, 2. Construction, Trading, Hotel, and Restaurant, 3. Transportation
and Communication, 4.Finance, Real Estate and Corporate Service, 5. Social Services.

                                          dadang-solihin.blogspot.com                                                   46
                p
  Human Development Index
               1980-
    Indonesia, 1980-2011




Source: Human Development Report – UNDP, 2011


                      dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   47
                 HDI Asean 2010
                                                      2010
              y
        Country
                                      Level
                                      L   l                  Index
                                                             I d
Singapore                               27                   0.846
Brunei                                  37                   0.805
                                                             0 805
Malaysia                                57                   0.774
Thailand                                92                   0.654
                                                             0 654
Phillipines                             97                   0.638
Indonesia                              108                   0.600
                                                             0 600
Viet Nam                               113                   0.572
Cambodia                               124                   0 490
                                                             0.490
Myanmar                                132                   0.451
# Countries                            169
In 2009 Indonesia’s HDI was 111
Source: HDR 2010: The Real Wealth of Nations (UNDP)
                                             (    )

                             dadang-solihin.blogspot.com             48
               HDI by Components
                    (Selected Countries, 2011)
                                                Means Years Of   Expected Years
                        Life Expectancy
                                                  Schooling
                                                          g       Of Schooling
                                                                             g

Philippines                    68.7                     8.9           11.9
China                          73.5
                               73 5                     75
                                                        7.5           11.6
                                                                      11 6
Thailand                       74.1                     6.6           12.3
Malaysia                       74.2
                               74 2                     95
                                                        9.5           12.6
                                                                      12 6
Indonesia                      69.4                     5.8           13.2
Viet Nam                       75.2
                               75 2                     5.5
                                                        55            10 4
                                                                      10.4

Source: HDR 2010: The Real Wealth of Nations (UNDP)




                                 dadang-solihin.blogspot.com                  49
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   50
                                MP3EI
Number of Projects and Amount of Investment

                            2011                                 2012
 Institution    Investment      Project No.          Investment      Project No.
               (Rp. Trillion)                       (Rp. Trillion)
Government         76.6               24                 66.2            15
SOE                131                24                 90.3            20
Private           168.6               38                 301.6           38
Mix               128.3                8                 78.2            11
Total             490.5               91                 356.3           84




                           dadang-solihin.blogspot.com                         51
       Investment Plan and Employment Created by
              Economic Corridor Activities
            Investment (Trillion Rupiah)                                                              p y
                                                                                            New Employment
                    SUMATERA;35,6              JAWA; 117,2                                  (Thousand) JAWA;188,0
                                                                                              SUMATERA; 93,9
                                                                                                                                                KALIMANTAN;
                                                                                                                                                   .
                                                                                                                                                  1 074,2
                PAPUA-
              KEPULAUAN
             MALUKU;440,9
                                                   KALIMANTAN;                                         -
                                                                                                   PAPUA
                                                    488 ,1                                        KEPULAUAN                               693,4
                                                                                                                                     SULAWESI;;
                                                                                                     3.422, 4
                                                                                               MALUKU;




    -
BALI NUSA
          , 57,
 TENGGARA; 1
             SULAWESI;
                     189,7                                                                                                                 BALI- NUSA
                                                                                                                                            TENGGARA;
                                                                                                                                             241,0
  SUMATERA JAWA                          -                   -
                  KALIMANTAN SULAWESI BALINUSA TENGGARA PAPUAKEPULAUAN MALUKU        SUMATERA JAWA KALIMANTAN SULAWESI BALI-NUSA TENGGARA PAPUA-KEPULAUAN MALUKU




                                                                      INVESTMENT
                                                                    R 1 328 6 T illi
                                                                    Rp. 1.328,6 Trillion

                                                                  NEW EMPLOYMENT
                                                                   5.713,0 Thousand
                                                                        ,

                                                             dadang-solihin.blogspot.com                                                               52
 Employment to be Created in Each Economic Corridor
                                       KALIMANTAN CORIDOR                 SULAWESI CORIDOR
  SUMATERA CORIDOR
  Leading Sector: Palm Oil,            Leading Sector: Steel,             Leading Sector: Nickel;
  Coal, and JSS (Sunda Strait          Bauxite; Palm Oil, Coal; Oil       Agriculture Food; Oil; Cocoa
  Bridge)                              and Timber                         and Fisheries




           JAWA CORIDOR
                                                                                                     PAPUA-MALUKU ISLANDS
           Leading Sector: Food
                  g                           BALI-NUSA TENGGARA                                     CORIDOR
           Beverages, Textiles;               CORIDOR
           Transportation Equipment;                                                                 Leading Sector: Nickel;
           Shipping; iron steel, and          Leading Sector: Tourism,                               Copper; Agriculture Food; Oil
           defense                            Livestock and Fisheries                                and Fishing

    NEW                     NEW                       NEW                    NEW                 NEW                    NEW
EMPLOYMENT              EMPLOYMENT                EMPLOYMENT             EMPLOYMENT          EMPLOYMENT             EMPLOYMENT
 (Thousand)              (Thousand)                (Thousand)             (Thousand)          (Thousand)             (Thousand)

    93,9                  188,0                     1.704,2                693,4                241,0                  3.422,4


                                               dadang-solihin.blogspot.com                                                   53
Clusters of Poverty Alleviation Programs


                                                                          3rd CLUSTER
                                                                 [Assist to have fish-rod & boat]
                                     2nd CLUSTER
                                 [Facilitate with fish rod]           Micro- & Small-scale
        1ST CLUSTER                                                 Enterprise Empowerment
                                                                         p       p
         [Provide fish]             Community
                                Empowerment Programs               Micro credits provision (<
          Assistance &                                               Rp 5 million) through
   Social Protection Programs    Block grants for 6,408 sub-
                                        g                           banks, & other types of
                                                                          ,          yp
   Target: 17.5 mil. poor HH:    districts (rural, urban, dis-       financial assistance
                                advantaged regions, regional
       rice subsidy, cash         & village infrastructures)
        transfers, health               PNPM Mandiri
   insurance, & scholarships
   i                h l hi                                                Target: SMEs
                                Target: poor communities
                                     of subdistricts
   Target: the poorest, poor                                              4th Cluster
   & near poor Households
                                                                     6 Pro-Poor Programs
                                                                        and 3 additional
                                                                           programs
                                dadang-solihin.blogspot.com                                         54
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   55
Political Update
                    •   Indonesia is coping well with
                        democratic imperatives.
                         – Strong parliament
                         – Strong media
                         – Strong civil society
                    •   Indonesia’s Democracy:
                         t bl    ib t d dynamic.
                        stable, vibrant and d     i




   dadang-solihin.blogspot.com                      56
              •   Political temperature is rising
                  ahead of 2014 Parliament and
                  Presidential Election.
              •   With democracy comes:
                   – Human rights
                   – Freedom of association
                      Freedom of expression
                   – F d         f         i
                   – Etc.




dadang-solihin.blogspot.com                     57
          •   Giving rise to conflicts:
               –   Sectarian
               –   Environmental
               –   Local interest
               –   Labor and wage disputes
          •   Political implications of economic
              policies subsidy issue

          •   Governance and Corruption
              Issues.
          •   These are the challenges that
                                   g
              Indonesia as a young, functioning
              democracy has the cope with,
              wisely,               fairly.
              wisely peacefully and fairly



dadang-solihin.blogspot.com                        58
       Indonesia-
       Indonesia-Japan

 BILATERAL                      G to G
 REGIONAL                       G to P
 MULTILATERAL
                                 P to G

                                 P to P

              dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   59
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   60
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   61
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   62
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   63
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   64
dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   65

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags: indonesia
Stats:
views:47
posted:9/13/2012
language:English
pages:65
Description: International Seminar on Indonesia Economic Update Darma Persada University-Japan Sogo Kenkyu Forum Jakarta, 13 September 2012