FloodRiskSummit Hecker by we9mj6AB

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									  Examples in Quantifying Flood Risk



          Presentation to
National Flood Risk Management
          Policy Summit


Edward Hecker
Director, Contingency Operations
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

                                      14 July 2009
             How Katrina Impacted the Corps, and Implications for Those Living Near Water       1
                                                                                            Slide 1
                      Flood Risk Management

                              Inventory and Assessments

• National Levee Inventory:
•      Living database and national resource.
•      Include all federal and nonfederal levees
• Risk Assessments:
•      Identify failure modes and prioritize remedial
  actions.

levee_flood_fight_site
                      
                  levee_break_site
                                       
                          sand_boil_point
                             levee_inspection_line             piezometer_point
                                          borehole_point                 cross_section_line
                                              levee_inspection_point
                                                                                 
                                                                        encroachment_site

                  How Katrina Impacted the Corps, and Implications for Those Living Near Water   2
               Flood Risk Management
                          Risk Quantification
Risk = Hazard Probability X System Performance X Consequences
      Flood Hazards                       Infrastructure Reliability                   Life Loss
      Seismic Hazards                     Infrastructure Resilience                    Property Damage
      Asymmetric Hazards                  Operation & Maintenance                      Social and
                                          Contingency Planning                         Economic Damage
                                          and Response                                 Environment
                                          Mitigation                                   Evacuation
                                                                                       Disaster Recovery


                   Probability of Failure


 • Risk Quantification is key to managing risks:
     – Understanding the source and nature of the Risk
     – Communicating the Risk
     – Acting to Reduce the Risk
              How Katrina Impacted the Corps, and Implications for Those Living Near Water                 3
                Flood Risk Management
                   Tolerable Risk Guidelines
                   within a Risk Framework

                                                 •    Informing Assessments:
Tolerable Risk Guidelines                               – How Safe is Safe?
                                                        – Priority & Urgency
                                                        – What is Tolerable?
                                                 •    Informing Management:
                                                        – Effectiveness of Interim
                                                          Measures?
                                                        – What Options are Available?
        TRG
                                                        – What is Practicable?
                                                        – How Well Justified is Action?
                                                 •    Informing Communication:
                                                        – How reliable is it?
                                                        – What are Societal Risks?
                                                        – What Risks Remain?

  Risk Framework

          How Katrina Impacted the Corps, and Implications for Those Living Near Water    4
Shared Flood Risk Management




                                                            Residual Risk




   How Katrina Impacted the Corps, and Implications for Those Living Near Water   5
                                Policy Studies
• Wise Use of Floodplains – An ongoing, IWR
  policy study to understand the effects of USACE
  programs and policies in different policy and
  watershed contexts on floodplain management
  choices affecting flood risk, and to describe
  options for policy, legislative or program
  reforms.
• WRDA 2007, Section 2032 - The President is
  to submit a report to Congress describing the
  vulnerability of the U.S. to damage from flooding,
  comparative risks faced by different regions of
  the country, programs in the U.S. which may be
  encouraging development and economic activity
  in flood prone areas, and recommendations for
  improving those programs and proposals for
  implementing the recommendations.
                 How Katrina Impacted the Corps, and Implications for Those Living Near Water   6
Flood Risk Management Cycle

                                                         Event



Preparation/Training                           Response


                            State & local partnerships
                          • Hazard mitigation plans
                          • Floodplain mgnt plans
                          • Pre & post response and
                          recovery




         Mitigation                             Recovery




How Katrina Impacted the Corps, and Implications for Those Living Near Water   7

								
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