Socio-Economic Aspects of Foresight

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					Socio-Economic Aspects of
        Foresight

UNIDO -Training Course on Technology Foresight
                for Practitioners
           Prague, 6-10 Otober 2003
 Martin Potůček, CESES, Prague, Czech Republic
                   Content:
   Why focusing on Socio-Economic Aspects of
    Foresight?
   Conceptual model of the development at the
    national level
   Priority problems
   Strategic conceptions
   Presentation of priority problems and/or
    strategic conceptions developed by
    participants´ teams
    The alternative ways of accessing R&D
                   priorities
   Science-push approach: needs of
    knowledge driven by curiosity, vested
    interests of scientists and research
    institutions
   Science-pull approach: priorities
    generated by assessed (present and
    future) needs of economy and society
     …experience from the Czech Republic
                                     Conceptual model of the society
                            C4                  C3                      C2                        C1
                        Preparation          Regulatory             Development                Forming of
                                                                         of                     national
                               B1 SOCIAL COHESION

                          for the               power               constitutional,             culture,
                         entrance                                     legal and
                                B2 KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY

                         into EU            of the market,             political                national
                                                                     system of the              identity
    B7                                                                                                              A
                               B3 LABOR MARKET, EMPLOYMENT AND EMPLOYABILITY

                         and full-          state and civic               country,            and national
 Economic                fledged                                          space for             interests        Quality
development                                                                                                        and
                               B4 POPULATION DEVELOPMENT, HEALTH, FAMILY AND HOUSING
                                                                                                                 sustain-
                        membership            sector in                 public                   in the           ability
                                               mutual                participation             context of         of life
                               B5 INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL SAFETY

                          in EU                relations              in policy-             human values
                                                                       making
                               B6 ENVIRONMENT, TERRITORIAL POTENTIALS OF DEVELOPMENT




   Caption:
   A – Criteria block                      B – Developmental potentials               C – Formative regulators
        General criteria of the
           development:
   Quality of life
   Sustainability of life
   Economic development
   Others: standard of living, peace,
    human values, employment, social
    cohesion, cultural heritage…?

                             …controversies
    Developmental potentials
B1 Social cohesion
B2 Knowledge society
B3 Labor market, employment and employability
B4 Demographic development, health, family, and
  housing
B5 Internal and external security
B6 Environment, territorial potentials of development
(B7 Economic development)
                               …controversies
       Formative regulators
C1 Forming of national culture, national identity
  and national interests in the context of
  human values
C2 Development of constitutional, legal and
  political system of the country, space for
  public participation in policy-making
C3 Tuning regulatory power of market, state
  and civic sector in mutual relations
C4 Preparation for the entrance into EU and
  full-fledged membership in EU
Methods of inductive aggregation of
     socio-economic priorities
   Definition, identification, elaboration
    and example of priority problems
   Definition, identification, elaboration
    and example of strategic conceptions

… definition, identification, elaboration
 and example of strategic moves)
      Identification of priority
              problems
Priority problems (PPs) = discrepancies between the
   present and desirable states of certain conditions of
   life in economy and society
 Definition of the PP

 What societal tension is in the core of the PP

 Why PP is really a priority one

 Location of the PP within the conceptual model

 Proposal of the (alternative) way(s) of the solution of
   PP
 Potential of R&D to solve the PP
   An example of the priority
          problem
PP: Growing social inequalities induced by
  different qualifications, experience, use and
  direct access to the information and
  communication technologies (ICT)
Potential of R&D to solve the PP:
 Development of the hardware, software and
  communication means that are user-friendly,
  easily accessible and cheap
 Development of educational methods that will
  ease the mastering of ICTs
     Identification of strategic
            conceptions
Strategic conceptions (SCs) = relatively complex action
   priorities, e.g. priorities able to solve the entire group
   of PPs
 Definition of the SC

 PPs which are to be solved by the SC

 Nature and mechanism(s) of the solution represented
   by the SC
 Elements and steps of the SC

 Main actors involved in the realization of the SC

 The specific place of R&D in the realization of the SC
  An example of the strategic
    conception - definition
SC: REFORM OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR
The public sector has not still undergone a
  satisfactory functional transformation from
  the structure imprinted by the Communist
  regime. The reform of the public sector as a
  complex process of political, legislative,
  administrative and institutional
  transformations will prepare the ground for
  the public services which would be provided
  efficiently, in correspondent quality and
  would be generally accessible.
 An example of the strategic
conception – the place of R&D
SC: REFORM OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR
 Research on capacities of Public Policy and
  Administration dealing with the public interests at
  central, regional and municipal level
 Research on legal framework securing the protection
  of human rights
 Research on the system of public finance compatible
  with market economy, political democracy, quality
  and sustainability of life
 Sectoral research of public services (health care,
  education, social services…)
   How to match PPs and SCs
      with R&D priorities
PPs and SCs are able to identify core needs of economy
   and society.
Some of them can be easily associated with R&D
   potentials/priorities.
In other cases there are either alternative ways of
   exploitation of R&D potentials, or there is no
   potential available
There may be R&D targets without clear impact on
   covering core needs of economy and society…
There may be unknown and/or unexpected positive
   and/or negative consequences of R&D
                                    …controversies
                  References
Potůček, M.: Priority Problems and Strategic Concepts
  of the Development if the Czech Republic. In:
  National Visions and Strategies. Soul, KDI School of
  Public Policy and Management, OECD & World bank
  2003, pp. 193-230
Průvodce krajinou priorit pro Českou republiku. Praha:
  Gutenberg 2002. (Guide to the Priorities for the
  Czech Republic, in Czech, a short English summary.)
Travelling in the Czech Future. Praha, Gutenberg 2003.
  (In Czech, an extended English summary.)
For further references, see the website of the Center for
  Social and Economic Strategies: http://ceses.cuni.cz

				
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posted:9/13/2012
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