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									  The Global Unified Model of the BiOsphere
                 (GUMBO):

An exploration through simulation modeling into
the global dynamics and interactions of the earth
       sociology, economy, and ecology.


                                   By:
         The folks at the Institute for Ecological Economics.
                   At the University of Maryland

                        http://iee.umces.edu
                                                                                                                                                                                           GUMBO


                                                                                                                                                   L an d sc ap e Mo d els



               Gen er al Un it mo d el


   Bu ilt              Nat u r al Cap it al                                                                                                                                                 Glo b al Man ag em en t
   Cap it al                                    V ertical gas
                                                     and
                                          ground w ater exc h ang-
                                          es




                                                                      Uptake


   So c ial              Horiz ontal
                         exchan ge
                                                 Nutri ents           kinetics
                                                                                     Pr imar ypr oduc r s
                                                                                                    e
                                                                                                                    S un-
                                                                                                                    light
                                                                                                                     CO2
                                                                                                                        +

                                                                                     Phytoplank-
   Cap it al                 Hydr ology
                                           Decomposi ti on           Water           ton
                                                                                          Feed-
                                                                                          ing
                                                                                                                                           e
                                                                                                                            Pr imar ypr oduc r s

                                                                                                            Feed-           Macrophytes
                                                                                            s
                                                                                     Consumer               ing
                                                                        Mor tality
   Hu man                                 Non Living Soil
                                          Organi c Matter
                                                                              e i
                                                                        Fr agm ntaton
                                                                                                                        Mor tality
                                                                                               Detri-
   Cap it al                                                                                  tus
                                                                                                                        andr -
                                                                                                                        Litte
                                                                                                                        fall
                                                                                                                                                                   Reg io n al Man ag em e n t

                                                                                                            L o c al Man ag em en t
Mo d u les



                                                       In d iv id u al
                                                       Pr o c es ses
What does unified mean ?

    Gumbo draws information from
      many disciplines:

     Geological models

     Global Climate models

     Sociology models

     Economic models

     Atmospheric models

     Ecosystem models
          What is a metamodel ?



 The idea of a meta model is analog to the concept of
  meta data:
  GUMBO inputs are the outputs generated by more complex and
  computational intense models.

  GUMBO inputs and calibrations rely on existing observational
  databases.
The Biosphere
                  Lithosphere



                    Biosphere


                  Anthroposphere


     Atmosphere
                           Hydrosphere
            Restrictions put on model
                  development
The hardware requirement:

         The model needs to be able to run on an average PC:
                            (MacIntoschG4 200 Year run takes about 1 minute


The software requirement:

The model needs to be able to run under readily available software:

                            (GUMBO is available in STELLA 7 for MacIntosh and MS-windows and
                            will be available in IMA/SME on UNIX platforms)


The “ease of use” requirement:

As everyone is a Global stakeholder, the model should be operational at the most
obtainable ease.
                                                       Biome
                                                       Change
       Hydrosphere
         forest
        grassland
       ocean
....




                                     Biosphere
                                    forest
                                   grassland        Atmosphere
                                  ocean
                           ....




                    Antropho -                                      Lithosphere
                    sphere                                             forest
                                                                      grassland
                                                                    ocean
                                                                 ....
                                               Ecosystem
                                               Services
Atmosphere
 Carbon and nutrient accounting among biomes and among spheres.
     Atmospheric carbon
     Atmospheric Nutrients
     Atmospheric Water

 Global energy balances and climate change.
     Spatial fluxes of energy,
     Account of the global heat budget from landuse change and landuse
      specific values of insolation and radiations
                          Lithosphere
(The earth crust, to include soils, suspended and deposited sediments)


                     Silicate Oxides
                               Suspended Sediments
                               Deposited sediments/soils
                               Rocks

                     Carbon
                              Soil carbon
                              Carbon Rock

                     Minerals (other)
                             Soil nutrients
                             Ore deposits
                                                Precipitation to ice
 precipitation to water     ice melting
                                           ICE
     Ocean Inflow
                                                                    Hydrosphere
                              Water
   Continental Runoff         freezing




                                                                                               Transpiration
                          Surface
    Surface Water Use                             Surface water to soil moisture
                          water

                                                                                         Soil
                                                                                         moisture
                                                 Ground/
     Cleaned up water            Infiltration
                                                 Deep                  Soil moisture
                                                                       to ground water

Waste                Ground Water Use
                                                 Water
water
                                                     Ground water
                                                     to ocean
                                                       Autotrophe Respiration

  Biosphere                            GPP




                                                       Autotrophs


                             Consumption                          Autotroph net Harvest

                                                     Autotroph Mortality
                         DOM spatial exchange


           Consumers
                                                     Dead Organic Matter
                                                                   Decomposer Growth

Consumer Respiration     Consumer Mortality

                       Consumer Harvest


                                                                           Decomposers
                                   Soil formation

                                                                                  Decomposer Respiration
                                                Decomposer Mortality
                       Antroposphere
Social Capital
Human networks                                           Natural Capita l
Norms, rules and shared behavior                         Ecosystem structures and
                                                         processes valued for potential
                                                         goods and services


                              Human Capital
                                                         Built Capital
                              Knowledge and Population
                                                         Ecological goods stored
                                                         and valued in the human
                                                         dimension



                                                         Wast e
                                                         Depreciated value of
                                                         goods




  Culture                                                  The Physical World
Ecosystem functions:
       The capacity of natural processes and components to provide
goods and services that satisfy human needs. (de Groot, 1992)
Ecosystem services:
       Valued ecosystem functions


                   Ecosystem

                   Structure and Processes
                                                   Management
                                                    Decisions



                                       Ecosystem
                                       goods
                    Ecosystem
                    Functions
                                       Ecosystem
                                       Services
Organic Matter Harvested
Fossil Fuel Extraction             Economic Production
Ore Production
Water use
                                                 Savings rates
                  Ecosystem Goods Production     Knowledge Formation

                                                 Built Capital Formation
Social Capital                        GOODS
                  Economic               &       Social Capital Formation
Knowledge
                  Production         SERVICES
Labor Force
                                        -        Personal Consumption
Built Capital

                                                 Natural Capital Formation
                                     WASTE
                 Ecosystem Services Production
Gas Regulation
Climate Regulation
Soil Formation
Plant Nutrient Uptake
Disturbance Regulation
Waste Assimilation Potential
Recreation and Cultural Services
                                                              Social Capital

 Well being                                                             Knowledge

                                                                                Built Capital

Well being from Ecosystem Services
                                                  Well being from human made capital




     Well being from consumption     Well being


                                                 Well being from Ecosystem Goods

          Well being from waste                                 Fossil Fuel Extraction

                                                       Fresh Water production

                                           Organic Matter Production

                                      Ore Production
     Scenarios
                                Policies
                         Optimist     Skeptic
Assumptions




              Optimist   Star Trek   Big Government



              Skeptic    Mad Max      Eco-Topia
                             Policies
                 Neutral            Skeptical             Optimistic




                                                         Mad Max


                                                                   Star Trek
                            Big Government
                 Baseline




                                             Eco-Topia
Savings Rates
Human Capital     0.016     0.022             0.022       0.01      0.01
Social Capital    0.16      0.18              0.46        0.05      0.02
Built Capital     0.15      0.1               0.1         0.2       0.2
Natural Capital   0.15      0.3               0.3         0         0
          Consumption       0.52              0.40        0.12      0.74       0.77
                      State of the World Assumptions:

Ecosystem health and human population

                              Neutral    Optimistic Skeptical Skeptical Optimistic

                              Baseline   Big Gov   Eco-Topia Mad Max Star Trek


Health care factor                0.002  0.003     0.001     0.001      0.003
Max healthcare effect             0.01   0.02      0         0          0.02
           Waste carrying capacity       80000     100000    60000      60000
           100000 knowledge v fertility            0.001     0.002      0            0
           0.002      Fertility Know max           0.03      0.04       0.02         0.02
           0.04
                          State of the World Assumptions:



                            Waste treatment capabilities

                               Neutral    Optimistic Skeptical Skeptical Optimistic

                               Baseline   Big Gov   Eco-Topia Mad Max Star Trek

Assimilation capacity           5000      7000      3000      3000       7000
           effect of NCF on waste         0.5       0.1       0.9        0.9          0.1
                  State of the World Assumptions:

                 Unknowns about our energy reserves




                         Neutral    Optimistic Skeptical Skeptical Optimistic

Parameter name           Baseline   Big Gov   Eco-Topia Mad Max Star Trek

Time Switch              2100       2003      2003      2003       2003
Accessable oil           700        800       600       600        800
Max unknown alt Energy   2          4         0         0          4
Energy switch Rate       0.1        0.1       0.1       0.1        0.1
                  State of the World Assumptions:


     Did technology cause a decline in social capital?
                   Neutral   Optimistic Skeptical Skeptical Optimistic
         Parameter name      Baseline Big Gov Eco-Topia Mad Max Star Trek


Knowledge SC effect 0.0002   0        0.0004   0.0004   0
                        State of the World Assumptions:


                 Developments in meat and fish production
                                   Neutral    Optimistic Skeptical Skeptical Optimistic
                                   Baseline   Big Gov Eco-Topia Mad Max Star Trek

OCEAN
Max Energy effect on Con Harvest   0.04       0.06      0.02      0.02       0.06
Energy effect on Con Harvest       0.003      0.006     0         0          0.006

COASTAL OCEAN
Max Energy effect on Con Harvest   0.04       0.06      0.02      0.02       0.06
Energy effect on Con Harvest       0.003      0.006     0         0          0.006

GRASS LANDS
Max Energy effect on Con Harvest   0.02       0.025     0.015     0.015      0.025
Energy effect on Con Harvest       0.04       0.07      0.01      0.01       0.07
                        State of the World Assumptions:

                   Agricultural Developments in croplands


                                          Neutral    Optimistic Skeptical Skeptical Optimistic
                                          Baseline   Big Gov Eco-Topia Mad Max Star Trek

Energy effect on plant Harvest             0.25      0.3       0.2       0.2        0.3
           Max Energy effect on plant harvest        0.7       0.9       0.5        0.5
0.9        Knowhow on Chlorophyll conc               0.03      0.04      0.02       0.02
0.04       Knowledge on Chlorophyll                  0.02      0.03      0.01       0.01
0.03
                                        Landuse Changes
        1000                                          3000
                       Wetland                                       Ice and Rock
         800                                          2500

                                                      2000
         600



10 ha
                                                      1500

6
         400
                                                      1000
         200
                                                       500
           0                                              0

        2000                                          6000
                      Tundra                                         Grasslands
                                                      5500
        1500
                                                      5000
                                                                                                    MM,ET
10 ha




        1000
6




                                                      4500

                                                      4000
         500
                                                      3500
           0                                          3000

        6000                                          1000
                      Forests                                        Urban                                  Observations
        5500                                           800                                             Scenarios
        5000                                                                                                Base Case
                                                       600
10 ha




        4500                                                                                                Star Trek (ST)
6




                                                       400
        4000                                                                                                Big Government (BG)
                                                       200                                                  Mad Max (MM)
        3500
                                                                                                            EcoTopia (ET)
        3000                                              0

        4000                                          2000
                  Croplands                                          Desert
        3000                                          1500
10 ha




        2000                                          1000
6




                                              MM,ET
        1000                                           500


           0                                              0
               1900     1950    2000   2050    2100           1900      1950   2000   2050   2100
                                Year                                           Year
                                  Biophysical Variables

                    Global Temp                                          Atmospheric
         23                                                      1200    Carbon
                                                                 1100




                                            Giga Ton C
         22
                                                                 1000
°C




         21                                                       900

                                                                  800
         20
                                                                  700



                                                                                           Observations
                                                                                       Scenarios
                                                                                           Base Case
                                                                        Fossil Fuel        Star Trek (ST)
                                                                                           Big Government (BG)
              0.4
                     Sea level                                          extraction         Mad Max (MM)
                                                                                           Eco-Topia (ET)
                                                                  12
              0.3                                                 10
                                                    Giga Ton C
meters




                                                                   8
              0.2
                                                                   6
              0.1
                                                                   4

              0.0                                                  2

                                                                   0
                                                   Alternative                                                         Waste
                                       4.5
                                                   Energy                                                  2000
             Giga Ton C equivalents




                                       4.0




                                                                                 Waste equivalents
                                                                                                           1500

                                       3.5
                                                                                                           1000

                                       3.0                                                                  500


                                                                                                                 0




                                                                                                                                                  Observations
                                                                                                                                              Scenarios
                                                                                                                                                  Base Case
                                                                                                                                                  Star Trek (ST)
                                               Fossil Fuel                                                           Total Energy                 Big Government (BG)
                                      1.0
                                               Market share                                                16                                     Mad Max (MM)
                                                                                                                                                  Eco-Topia (ET)



                                                                                  Giga Ton C equivalents
                                      0.8                                                                  14
Fraction of total energy




                                                                                                           12
                                      0.6
                                                                                                           10
                                      0.4                                                                   8

                                                                                                            6
                                      0.2
                                                                                                            4
                                      0.0

                                            1900     1950   2000   2050   2100                                  1900     1950   2000   2050      2100
                                                            Year                                                                Year
                                         Human Population
                 20




                 15                  Observations
                             Scenarios
                                    Base Case
billion people




                                    Star Trek (ST)
                                    Big Government (BG)
                 10
                                    Mad Max (MM)
                                    Eco-Topia (ET)




                  5




                      1900                 1950             2000   2050
                                                                                  1000 US Dollars (1998) per person
                                                                                                                      300
                                                                                                                              Knowledge
                                    2000
                                              Knowledge                                                                       per capita
trill. 1998 US Dollars
                                                                                                                      250
                                    1500
                                                                                                                      200

                                    1000                                                                              150

                                                                                                                      100
                                     500
                                                                                                                       50

                                       0                                                                                0




                                                                                  1000 US Dollars (1998) per person
                                                                                                                      800
                                    8000      Built Capital                                                                    Built capital
trill. 1998 US Dollars




                                    6000
                                                                                                                      600      per capita

                                    4000                                                                              400


                                    2000                                                                              200

                                       0                                                                                0


                                                                                                                                                            Scenarios
                                     4.0                                                                                                                        Base Case
                                              Social Network                                                                              Social network
       Social Capital Index (SCI)




                                                                                                                                                                Star Trek (ST)
                                                                                                                      1.2
                                                                                                                                          per capita
                                                                               SCI per billion people



                                     3.5                                                                                                                        Big Government (BG)
                                                                                                                      1.0
                                                                                                                                                                Mad Max (MM)
                                                                                                                                                                Eco-Topia (ET)
                                     3.0
                                                                                                                      0.8

                                     2.5                                                                              0.6

                                                                                                                      0.4
                                     2.0
                                                                                                                      0.2

                                           1900   1950    2000   2050   2100                                                1900   1950      2000   2050   2100
                                                          Year                                                                               Year
                         2.0              Energy per capita                                                                                   Food per capita
                                                                                                              0.20




                                                              -1
Kg per person




                                                               *day
                         1.5




                                                              -1
                                                                                                              0.16




                                                               kg*person
                         1.0
                                                                                                              0.12
                         0.5

                                                                                                              0.08



                         120                                                                                                 GWP




                                                                                 1000 US Dollars per person
                                 Gross                                                                         80            per
trill. 1998 US dollars




                         100     World
                          80    Product                                                                                     capita
                                                                                                               60
                          60
                                                                                                               40
                          40

                          20                                                                                   20




                                                                 Welfare Index per billion people
                                                                                                              1.0
                                                                                                                                             Welfare
                         3.0   Global Welfare                                                                 0.8                              per
                         2.5
                                                                                                                                              capita
Welfare Index




                                                                                                              0.6

                         2.0
                                                                                                              0.4
                         1.5
                                                                                                              0.2
                         1.0

                         0.5                                                                                         1900      1950   2000      2050   2100
                                                                                                                                      Year
                                                     6
                                                     5
                                                     4

                                                     3
                                                                   Welfare per GWP
                                                     2
welfare Index per trill. 1998 US dollars




                                                -2
                                           10

                                                     6
                                                     5
                                                     4

                                                     3

                                                     2



                                                -3
                                           10

                                                     6
                                                     5
                                                     4

                                                     3

                                                     2



                                                -4
                                           10

                                                     1900   1950         2000        2050
                                                                         Year
                 7000                                             10
                          Waste                                          Soil Formation
                                                                   8
                 6000
                        Treatment




                                                 -1
-1
  GigaTon*yr




                                                     GigaTon*yr
                                                                   6
                 5000
                                                                   4
                                                                                                              Ecosystem
                 4000
                                                                   2                                          Functions
                 3000                                              0



                        Recreation                                0.9
                                                                          Nutrient
                 24
                           and                                            Cycling
-1




                 22
  GigaTon *SCI




                                               -1
                                                                  0.8
                         Culture

                                                GigaTon*yr
                 20

                 18                                               0.7

                 16
                                                                  0.6
                 14



                                                     3.00                                         12
                 11.0
                                                                                                            Gas
                                                                        Disturbance               10
                                                                                                          Regulation
                                                                         Regulation




                                                                                          -1
-1
 C° *GigaTon




                                                                                          *yr
                                     GigaTon




                                                                                                   8




                                                                                          -1
                                                     2.75
                 10.5
                         Climate



                                                                                          kg*kg
                                                                                                   6
                        Regulation
                                                                                                   4

                 10.0                                2.50                                          2

                                                                                                       1900   1950     2000   2050
                                                                                                                       Year
                                        Ecosystem Services Value
                           500




                           400
trill. US Dollars (1998)




                           300




                           200




                           100




                                 1900           1950        2000   2050
                                                            Year
In Conclusion:
The main objective in creating the GUMBO model was not to accurately predict the future, but to provide simulation
capabilities and a knowledge base to facilitate integrated participation in modeling.

It should be noted that this is “version 1.0” of the model. It will undergo substantial changes and improvements as we continue
to develop it, and the conclusions offered here can only be thought of as “preliminary.” Nevertheless, we can reach some
important conclusions from the work so far, including:

            To our knowledge, no other global models have yet achieved the level of dynamic integration between the
biophysical earth system and the human socioeconomic system incorporated in GUMBO.

            Preliminary calibration results across a broad range of variables show very good agreement with historical data.
This builds confidence in the model and also constrains future scenarios.

•            We produced a range of scenarios that represent what we thought were reasonable rates of change of key
parameters and investment policies, and these bracketed a range of future possibilities that can serve as a basis for further
discussions, assessments, and improvements. Users are free to change these parameters further and observe the results.

             Assessing global sustainability can only be done using a dynamic integrated model of the type we have created in
GUMBO. But one is still left with decisions about what to sustain (i.e. GWP, welfare, welfare per capita, etc.) GUMBO allow
these decisions to be made explicitly and in the context of the complex world system. It allows both desirable and sustainable
futures to be examined.

           Ecosystem services are highly integrated into the model, both in terms of the biophysical functioning of the earth
system and in the provision of human welfare. Both their physical and value dynamics are shown to be quite complex.

             The overall value of ecosystem services, in terms of their relative contribution to both the production and welfare
functions, is shown to be significantly higher than GWP (4.5 times in this preliminary version of the model).

             “Skeptical” investment policies are shown to have the best chance (given uncertainty about key parameters) of
achieving high and sustainable welfare per capita. This means increased relative rates of investment in knowledge, social
capital, and natural capital, and reduced investment in built capital and consumption.

								
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