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UNDERSTANDING DISASTER-RISK REDUCTION FOR SEVERE WINDSTORMS by olTSOqJu

VIEWS: 17 PAGES: 81

									 UNDERSTANDING DISASTER-
   RISK REDUCTION FOR
   SEVERE WINDSTORMS
A PRIMER OF KNOWLEDGE THAT
CAN MULTIPLY AND SPILL OVER
FOR THE BENEFIT OF MILLIONS

   Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, University of North
            Carolina, USA
SEVERE WINDSTORMS


   TROPICAL STORMS,
 HURRICANES, TYPHOONS,
    AND CYCLONES
  SEVERE WINDSTORMS:
      HURRICANES
• In the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf
  of Mexico, and Eastern Pacific
  areas cyclonic tropical storms
  with well-formed central “eyes”
  and with wind speeds above 74
  mph are referred to as
  HURRICANES.
  SEVERE WINDSTORMS:
       TYPHOONS
• The exact same phenomenon in
  the Western Pacific Ocean
  region is called a TYPHOON.
Physics Of A Typhoon
   SEVERE WINDSTORMS:
        CYCLONES

• The exact same phenomenon in the
  Indian Ocean region is called a
  CYCLONE.
 SEVERE WINDSTORM PUBLIC
           POLICY
IS A LEGAL MANDATE, A PLAN,
    OR A WAY OF WORKING
 TOGETHER TO REDUCE RISK
  WITHIN THE LIMITS OF THE
   COMMUNITY’S PUBLIC &
       PRIVATE ASSETS.
  PUBLIC POLICIES INTEGRATE
   TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL
           SOLUTIONS
  FOR THE LONG-TERM BENEFIT
     OF PEOPLE, PROPERTY,
INFRASTRUCTURE, GOVERNMENT,
        AND ENTERPRISE
       IN THE COMMUNITY
EACH POLICY OPTION SHOULD
        BEGIN WITH
   A VISION OF THE GOAL
            AND
   REALISTIC STRATEGIES
     FOR REACHING IT.
   RISK ASSESSMENT
                                        ACCEPTABLE RISK
 •HAZARD MAPS
 •INVENTORY               RISK
 •VULNERABILITY                       UNACCEPTABLE RISK
 •LOCATION



                                      SEVERE WINDSTORM
                                      RISK REDUCTION
 DATA BASES            COMMUNITY
 AND INFORMATION



                                         POLICY OPTIONS


HAZARDS:
                                   •PREVENTION/MITIGATION
GROUND SHAKING                     •PREPAREDNESS
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING                   •EMERGENCY RESPONSE
TECTONIC DEFORMATION               •RECOVERY and
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS                           RECONSTRUCTION
RISK ASSESSMENT INTEGRATES
  RESEARCH AND SCIENTIFIC
 KNOWLEDGE GAINED FROM
 “DISASTER LABORATORIES,”
      WITH EMERGING
 TECHNOLOGIES WITHIN THE
  COMMUNITY’S POLITICAL
          PROCESS.
HAZARDS OF A SEVERE
    WINDSTORM
 HAZARDS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM
 (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• WIND FIELD (COUNTER CLOCKWISE
  OR CLOCKWISE DIRECTION; CAT 1 (55
  mph) TO CAT 5 (155 mph or greater)
• STORM SURGE
• HEAVY PRECIPITATION
• LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS)
• COSTAL EROSION
• TORNADOES (SOMETIMES)
“SEVERE WINDSTORM
  LABORATORIES”
     EXAMPLES

EACH PAST EVENT PROVIDES
   VALUABLE LESSONS ON
 DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
                CAUSES
                  OF
                DAMAGE
                           WIND PENETRATING
                           BUILDING ENVELOPE


                          UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM


                              FLYING DEBRIS


  SEVERE                      STORM SURGE
WINDSTORMS
                            IRREGULARITIES IN
  “DISASTER
                           ELEVATION AND PLAN
LABORATORIES”


                            SITING PROBLEMS


                         FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
    TEN WORST NATURAL
   DISASTERS DURING 2001
• 1. TROPICAL      • $6,000 MILLION
  STORM ALLISON      ECONOMIC LOSS
  (HOUSTON, USA)     WITH $3,500
                     MILLION
                     INDEMNIFIED BY
                     INSURANCE
                   • 25 DEATHS
    TEN WORST NATURAL
   DISASTERS DURING 2001
• 6. HURRICANE   • $1,000 MILLION
  MICHELE          ECONOMIC LOSS
  (CARIBBEAN)      WITH $200
                   MILLION
                   INDEMNIFIED BY
                   INSURANCE
                 • 16 DEATHS
    TEN WORST NATURAL
   DISASTERS DURING 2001
• 7. TYPHOON      • $800 MILLION
  PABUK (JAPAN)     ECONOMIC LOSS
                    WITH $500
                    MILLION
                    INDEMNIFIED BY
                    INSURANCE
                  • 8 DEATHS
    TEN WORST NATURAL
   DISASTERS DURING 2001
• 8. TYPHOON      • $800 MILLION
  NARI (TAIWAN)     ECONOMIC LOSS
                    WITH $600
                    MILLION BEING
                    INDEMNIFIED BY
                    INSURANCE
                  • 93 DEATHS
   NATURAL DISASTERS: 2003

• HURRICANE           • STORM SURGE
  ISABEL:               FLOODING IN 8
                        STATES
  EASTERN USA         • BUILDINGS AND
• CATEGORY 2            HOMES DAMAGED
• 160 KPH (100 MPH)   • TREE DAMAGE
  WINDS               • $5,000 M LOSS
• 18 SEPTEMBER        • $1,800 M INSURED
                        LOSS
                      • 40 DEATHS
   NATURAL DISASTERS: 2003

• TYPHOON MAEMI     • THOUSANDS OF
  SOUTH KOREA,        SHIPS, BUILDINGS
  PUSAN, JAPAN        AND INDUSTRIAL
• 11-13 SEPTEMBER     SITES DAMAGED OR
                      DESTROYED
                    • INFRASTRUCTURE
                      DAMAGED
                    • $4,150 M LOSS
                    • $500 M INSURED LOSS
                    • 118 DEATHS
  NATURAL DISASTERS: 2003

• TYPHOON DUJUAN   • THOUSANDS OF
  TAIWAN             BUILDINGS AND
                     HOMES INUNDATED
• 1-3 SEPTEMBER
                   • AGRICULTURAL
                     CROPS LOST
                   • $320 M LOSS
                   • $-- 0 INSURED LOSS
                   • 42 DEATHS
  NATURAL DISASTERS: 2003
                   • VEHICLES,
• SEVERE STORMS      BUILDINGS, AND
  AUSTRALIA (SE)     BRIDGES
• 23-25 AUGUST       DAMAGED OR
                     DESTROYED
                   • POWER OUTAGES
                   • $20 M LOSS
                   • $16 M INSURED
                     LOSS
                   • 1 DEATH
   NATURAL DISASTERS: 2003

• TYPHOON           • HUNDREDS OF
  KROVANH             THOUSANDS OF
  CHINA, VIETNAM,     BUILDINGS AND
  PHILIPPINES         HOMES FLOODED/
• 22-27 AUGUST        DAMAGED
                    • DIKES BREACHED
                    • $145 M LOSS
                    • $--- 0 M INSURED LOSS
                    • 7 DEATHS
  NATURAL DISASTERS: 2003
                  • THOUSANDS OF
• TYPHOON ETAH      BUILDINGS AND
                    HOMES DAMAGED OR
  JAPAN (N, NE)     DESTROYED
• 8-10 AUGUST     • INDUSTRIAL SITES &
                    INFRASTRUCTURE
                    DAMAGED
                  • $55 M LOSS
                  • $42 M INSURED LOSS
                  • 13 DEATHS
  NATURAL DISASTERS: 2003
                   • 230 KPH WIND SPEEDS
• TYPHOON IMBUDO   • THOUSANDS OF
  CHINA,             BUILDINGS AND
  PHILIPPINES        HOMES DAMAGED OR
                     DESTROYED
• 23-25 JULY       • WATER SUPPLY AND
                     POWER DISRUPTED
                   • AGRICULTURE AND
                     LIVESTOCK LOSSES
                   • $125 M LOSS
                   • $-- 0 INSURED LOSS
                   • 41 DEATHS
    TEN WORST NATURAL
   DISASTERS DURING 2004
• 7. HURRICANE    • $21 BILLION
  CHARLEY           ECONOMIC LOSS
  (CARIBBEAN        WITH ABOUT
  ISLANDS, AND      $8 BILLION
  FLORIDA, USA)     INDEMNIFIED BY
• 11-14 AUGUST,     INSURANCE
  2004            • 2.3 MILLION
                    EVACUATED
                  • 36 DEATHS
    TEN WORST NATURAL
   DISASTERS DURING 2004
• 5. TROPICAL    • UNEXPECTED
  CYCLONE        • $350 MILLION
  CATERINA         ECONOMIC LOSS
• BRAZIL           WITH 3 MILLION
                   INSURED
• 27-29 MARCH,   • 40,000 DAMAGED
  2004             BUILDINGS
                 • 4 DEATHS
    “CYCLONE NARGISH
LABORATORY”: MARCH 12, 2009
              • ONE OF THE
                WORST CYCLONE
                DISASTERS IN ASIA
                DURING PAST 15
                YEARS
              • 2.4 MILLION
                PEOPLE
                SERIOUSLY
                AFFECTED
     FIVE LESSONS FROM
      CYCLONE NARGIS

FIRST: no nation, rich or poor, can
go it alone when confronted by a
natural disaster of the magnitude of
a Cyclone Nargis.
     FIVE LESSONS FROM
      CYCLONE NARGIS

 SECOND: The stricken nation must
stay focused on the goal: assisting
people in crisis; .. helping vulnerable
people in need, not on politics.
    FIVE LESSONS FROM
     CYCLONE NARGIS
THIRD: Nargis provided a new
model of humanitarian partnership;
adding the special position and
capabilities of Asian countries to
those of the United Nations in order
to build TRUST with the government.
     FIVE LESSONS FROM
      CYCLONE NARGIS
FOURTH: Nargis demonstrated once
again the importance of disaster risk
reduction and preparedness actions---
simple in concept and easy to implement
at the community level---such as local
evacuation plans, shelters for evacuees,
and early-warning systems.
    FIVE LESSONS FROM
     CYCLONE NARGIS
FIFTH: Nargis demonstrated
the extraordinary resilience of
people, in this case the
Myanmar people who faced
huge odds against survival.
    1325 HURRICANES: DYNAMIC
   LABORATORIES FOR LEARNING
• EACH HURRICANE
  TEACHES
  IMPORTANT
  TECHNICAL AND
  POLITICAL
  LESSONS ABOUT
  DISASTER RISK
  REDUCTION.
2005: A RECORD HURRICANE
          SEASON
            • Twenty-seven
              named storms
              occurred during
              the 2005 season.
            • Over $100 billion
              in losses.
      TROPICAL STORMS-
      HURRICANES IN 2005
•   ARLENE     •   GERT
•   BRET       •   HARVEY
•   CINDY      •   IRENE
•   DENNIS     •   JOSE
•   EMILY      • KATRINA
•   FRANKLIN   • LEE
       TROPICAL STORMS-
       HURRICANES IN 2005
                • TAMMY
•   MARIA       • VINCE
•   NATE        • WILMA
•   OPHELIA     •   ALPHA
•   PHILIPPE    •   BETA
                •   GAMMA
• RITA
                •   DELTA
• STAN          •   EPSILON
                •   ZETA
LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL
   SEVERE WINDSTORMS
            • RECOVERY
              TAKES LONGER
              AND COSTS
              MORE THAN
              EXPECTED.
LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL
   SEVERE WINDSTORMS
            • MONITORING WITH
              DOPPLER RADAR
              SYSTEMS LEADS TO
              RELIABLE WARNINGS
              THAT FACILITATE
              EVACUATION AND
              EMERGENCY
              PREPAREDNESS.
LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL
   SEVERE WINDSTORMS
           • EVACUATION IS A
             COMPLEX
             ENDEAVOR THAT IS
             NOT ONLY COSTLY,
             BUT REQUIRES
             PRIOR PLANNING.
LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL
    SEERE WINDSTORMS
           • TIMELY
             COMMUNICATION
             OF CRITICAL
             INFORMATION
             IMPROVES:
           • MASS EVACUATIONS
             AND COMMUNITY
             PREPAREDNESS .
LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL
   SEVERE WINDSTORMS
           • STORM SURGE IS
             THE PRIMARY
             “KILLER. “
LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL
   SEVERE WINDSTORMS
           • HIGH VELOCITY
             WINDS LIFT THE
             ROOFS OFF OF
             BUILDINGS.
  LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL
     SEVERE WINDSTORMS
• HIGH VELOCITY
  WINDS CAUSE
  BUILDINGS WITH
  INADEQUATE
  ENGINEERING
  DESIGN TO
  COLLAPSE.
LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL
   SEVERE WINDSTORMS
            • HEAVY
              PRECIPITATION,
              WHICH IS
              TYPICAL, WILL
              FLOOD LOW-
              LYING AREAS
              ALONG THE
              ENTIRE PATH OF
              THE STORM.
LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL
   SEVERE WINDSTORMS
           • FLOODING OVER A
             WIDE AREA WILL
             CAUSE WIDESPREAD
             LOSS OF FUNCTION
             OF HIGHWAY
             STRUCTURES AND
             ALL UTILITIES.
LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL
   SEVERE WINDSTORMS
           • INCREDIBLE
             QUANTITES OF
             DEBRIS WILL BE
             CREATED BY
             THE WIND
             FIELD, STORM
             SURGE, AND
             FLOODING.
LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL
   SEVERE WINDSTORMS
           • THE UNTHINK-
             ABLE CAN (AND
             SOMETIMES WILL)
             HAPPEN IN ANY
             COASTAL
             COMMUNITY THAT
             IS PRONE TO
             SEVERE
             WINDSTORMS .
LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL
       HURRICANES
            • POWER
              OUTAGES ARE
              INEVITABLE
              AND WILL
              PARALYZE
              COMMUNITIES
              OVER A WIDE
              AREA.
LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL
   SEVERE WINDSTORMS
            • SAFE HAVENS
              (E.G., SCHOOLS,
              SUPER DOMES,
              CHURCHES,
              COMMUNITY
              CENTERS, ETC)
              FOR EVACUEES
              ARE NOT
              ALWAYS SAFE.
LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL
   SEVERE WINDSTORMS
            • HOUSEHOLD
              PETS ARE
              USUALLY LEFT
              OUT OF A
              COMMUNITY’S
              EVACUATION
              PLAN.
LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL
   SEVERE WINDSTORMS
            • LAPSES IN LAW
              AND ORDER WILL
              OFTEN OCCUR
              DURING CHAOTIC
              MOMENTS OF THE
              DISASTER.
LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL
   SEVERE WINDSTORMS
            • ALL HURRICANES
            • IT ONLY TAKES A
              FEW HOURS OF
              WIND AND STORM
              SURGE AND A
              MONTH OF
              FLOODING FOR
              COMMUNITY
              BUSINESSES AND
              JOBS TO DISAPPEAR
              FOREVER.
LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL
   SEVERE WINDSTORMS
            • ADVERSE ENVIRON-
              MENTAL IMPACTS
              WILL HAPPEN WHEN
              HAZARDOUS
              MATERIAL FACILITIES
              ARE SUBJECTED TO
              WIND, STORM SURGE,
              AND FLOODING.
LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL
   SEVERE WINDSTORMS
           • BARRIER ISLANDS,
             TREES, REEFS, ETC
             REDUCE DAMAGE
             FROM STORM
             SURGE AND WIND
             IN THE LANDFALL
             ZONE.
LESSONS LEARNED FROM
 HURRICANE KATRINA
          • WHEN THE
            LEVEES FAILED,
            NEW ORLEANS
            FOUND THAT IT
            WAS NEITHER
            DISASTER
            INTELLIGENT
            NOR RESILIENT.
LESSONS LEARNED FROM
 HURRICANE KATRINA
          • A FEW HOURS OF
            WIND FOLLOWED
            BY A MONTH OF
            FLOODING
            PARALYZED
           TULANE
           UNIVERSITY.
LESSONS LEARNED FROM
 HURRICANE KATRINA
          • Removal of 350,000
            water-damaged
            cars (and refriger-
            ators) was not part
            of New Orleans’
            response plan.
LESSONS LEARNED FROM
   HURRICANE STAN
          • STAN: OCTOBER
            2005
          • DEVASTATING
            MUDSLIDES ARE
            TRIGGERED BY
            PROLONGED,
            HEAVY
            PRECIPITATION.
LESSONS LEARNED FROM
   HURRICANE STAN
         • WHEN A MUDSLIDE
           BURIES A TOWN,
           SEARCH AND RESCUE
           BECOMES VERY
           URGENT AND VERY
           COMPLICATED.
SEVERE WINDSTORM
 RISK ASSESSMENT
     ELEMENTS OF RISK




  HAZARDS          EXPOSURE




            RISK



VULNERABILITY      LOCATION
RISK ASSESSMENT: SEVERE
      WINDSTORMS
            • WHERE, WHEN, AND
              WHY DID STORM
              FORM?
            • CATEGORY?
            • PATH? LANDFALL?
            • STORM SURGE
            • SOCIETAL IMPACTS?
            • EXPECTED LOSSES?
 UNACCEPTABLE RISK




 WIND
DAMAGE             WATER
                  DAMAGE


           RISK


LOSS OF       ECONOMIC LOSS
FUNCTION         DEATHS
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
   EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR
      SEVERE WINDSTORMS

• REAL TIME           • DATABASES
  FORECASTS OF PATH   • WIND ENGINEERING
  AND PHYSICAL        • MAPS: STORM SURGE
  EFFECTS
                      • DISASTER SCENARIOS
• MEASUREMENT
  TECHNOLOGIES        • STORM CHASER
  (E.G., DOPPLER        PLANES/DRONES
  RADAR, WIND         • WARNING SYSTEMS
  SPEEDS; PRESSURE,   • RISK MODELING (E.G.,
  INTERNATIONAL         HAZUS, INSURANCE
  SPACE STATION)        UNDERWRITING)
SEVERE WINDSTORM RISK
 REDUCTION STRATEGIES
RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES
 FOR SEVERE WINDSTORMS
• PURPOSE        • TECHNIQIE
• MONITORING FOR • DOPPLER RADAR;
  COMPUTER         PLANES; DRONES;
  MODELING         SATTELITES; INTL
                   SPACE STATION
• PROTECTION     • WIND-RESILIENT
                   CONSTRUCTION;
                   PLYWOOD; STORM
                   SHUTTERS
WIND ENGINEERING:
   PROTECTION
        • SEVERE
          WINDSTORMS CAN
          NOT BE
          PREVENTED, BUT
        • BUILDING CODES
          PREVENT LOSS OF
          ROOF SYSTEMS
      WIND ENGINEERING:
         PROTECTION
• ACTIONS TO KEEP
  THE WIND AND
  RAIN OUT OF THE
  HOUSE CAN BE
  TAKEN IN
  ADVANCE OF THE
  STORM TO
  PREVENT LOSS.
     COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS:
          PROTECTION
• IKE, September 1,
  2008: Keeping the
  wind and water out
  side the building
  envelope.
 DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITES:
MONITORING AND COMPUTER MODEL

               • LOCATION AND
                 PRESSURE OF EYE
               • WIND FIELD AND
                 RAIN BANDS
               • LIKELY PATH
               • LAND FALL
               • STORM SURGE
RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES
 FOR SEVERE WINDSTORMS
• PURPOSE            • TECHNIQIE
• LAND USE           • COASTAL ZONE
  CONTROL              MANAGEMENT
• COMMUNITY          • LEVEE SYSTEMS
  FLOOD PRE-
  VENTION            • COMMUNITY
• ALERT, ADVISORY,     EVACUATION
  WARNING              PLANS
 COMMUNITY EVACUATION: TO GET
     OUT OF HARM’S WAY
• IKE, September 1,
  2008: Memories of
  what happened in the
  recent and distant past
  were an incentive to
  evacuate from
  Galveston and
  Houston
     COMMUNITY EVACUATION
        PLAN: WARNING
• Katrina, August 29-
  30, 2005: Instead of
 being a safe haven,
 as envisioned, New
 Orleans’ Super
 Dome became a
 setting for disaster.
LEVEE SYSTEMS: FLOOD
    PREVENTION
          • BUILDING AND
            MAINTAINING A
            LEVEE SYSTEM IN
            CONCERT WITH
            WETLANDS CAN
            PREVENT FLOODING
            .
RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES
 FOR SEVERE WINDSTORMS
• PURPOSE     • TECHNIQIE
• TEMPORARY   • SAFE HAVENS
  SHELTER     • FACILITATE
• INSURANCE     RECOVERY
  PROPERTY AND CASUALTY
INSURANCE: SPEEDS RECOVERY

             • HURRICANE AND
               FLOOD
               INSURANCE
               SPREAD THE RISK.
             • INSURANCE
               PAYOUTS
               ACCELERATE
               “RESTORATION TO
               NORMAL”
  THE VISION OF THE END
            IS
DISASTER-RESILIENT URBAN
      DEVELOPMENT
  IN EVERY COMMUNITY.

								
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