THE GALILEO PROGRAM BUSINESS CASE AND APPLICATIONS
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THE GALILEO PROGRAM: BUSINESS CASE AND APPLICATIONS Cosimo Larocca Galileo Industries SpA – via G.V. Bona 85 00156 Rome – Italy Alexander Mager Galileo Industries GmbH – Lise-Meitner-Straße 2 Gebäude 10.0 - 85521 Ottobrunn - Germany Tiziano Sassorossi Galileo Industries SpA – via G.V. Bona 85 00156 Rome – Italy Abstract The market for Satellite Navigation Applications is growing more and more and the global turnover of 15 B€ achieved in 2001 increased to 30 B€ in 2004 and is foreseen to rise up to 276 B€ by 2020. While in the beginning of the Satellite navigation market was pushed mainly by products, the development of new applications in all services areas is taking the lead role and orienting the market. The development of the market is also boosted by the emerging synergies between navigation, Communication and information technology (“info-mobility”). The paper, after presenting a survey on the market situation and future evolutions, will assess the major application areas for satellite Navigation and the considerable benefits that the introduction of Galileo will bring on all aspects: performance, organizational and legal. 1. Evolution of the Satellite Navigation Market If we compare the cost of the Galileo System, with the cost of any other transport infrastructure (e.g. motorways or railways tunnels), we will immediately realize that Galileo is relatively not expensive. Moreover all analyses done in the past have shown its economic viability and that its cost/benefit ratio over the normal lifetime (20 years) is about 4.6, i.e. higher than any other European infrastructure project (data from PricewaterhouseCoopers). As far as the market forecast is concerned, it is foreseen that the road telematics applications will be the leaders over the next 15-20 years in terms of net turnover. The development of new mobile communication systems, such as UMTS and emerging services, will generate a shift in turnover from commercial and professional market to consumer market. The foreseen evolution of the navigation market in terms of net turnover up to 2010 is shown in Figure 1.1. Figure 1.1: Global Net Turnover by Application in 2001 and 2015 The incidence of the consumer market will rise from the current 40 % up to 75 % by 2015. Other important sources of revenues are the services relevant to navigation and also those ones are foreseen to increase in the next period. At the moment the commercial fleet management is the only service with a profitable market and the navigation products are dominating elsewhere. The number of users is supposed to increase rapidly for mass-market car and hand-held segments and this increase will bring additional potential for service turnover. The service market will be pushed by the combination of both suppliers developing service offerings and network effects. The trend for turnover of navigation products and services is shown in Figure 1.2. Figure 1.2: Global Annual Navigation Products and Services Turnover Presently the service turnover is about 23% of the market and it is foreseen to increase up to 100 B€ by 2020, with a ratio of 1 to 2 with respect to product turnover. 2. The Galileo Program The areas of applications that are generating services (both revenue generating and not) are the following: • Transportation • Agriculture • Fishery • Energy (Electricity, Oil and Gas) • Social Life and Leisure • Governmental Applications • Science In addition more and more importance will be assigned to the so called LBS (Location Based Services) i.e. services delivering information related to navigation. 2.1. LBS The Location Based Services (LBS) are those services that are able to provide additional information based upon the localisation of a vehicle or a person. The information can be of general interest or as required by the user. There are four main categories of LBS • Services delivering information to the end user on how to optimize the route to the final destination • Services providing assistance in case of accident or any other emergency • Tracking services that provide localization • Positioning services that are supporting services that can be improved by the knowledge of the exact position (eg Communication Systems). The market of the LBS linked to mobile telecommunication is quite wide and it will develop in parallel with the networks. The effect of saturation of mobile telecommunication market in Europe and North America will be compensated by the future extension of the market in area such as China and India. Combining the Satellite Navigation with the mobile phone, the service providers may serve a much wider market and may provide services such as localisation on a map or delivery upon request of information relevant to the area a subscriber is visiting (restaurants, hotels, cinemas, …). Emergencies (accident, failures or health problems) can be solved efficiently and quickly by the support of LBS. 2.2. Transportation The transportation sector is the one that is supposed to bring the main contribution to the development of the Satellite Navigation and within it the leading role is certainly played by the road applications. If systems for toll collection on motorways or urban areas with limited circulation are out of service for one hour in a year, the damages can arrive at levels of millions euro. The degree of availability and continuity of service provided by Galileo system will play a key role in the road applications. An extraordinary number of vehicle are already equipped with navigation receivers and in this way the drivers may receive traffic information, be connected to service centers that will help in managing emergencies. Galileo system will allow the development of advanced fleet management and automatic driving systems. All major car manufacturers are planning to provide their customers with telematic services based on navigation systems. Aviation sector is adding a significant impulse to satellite navigation due to the already existing regulatory frame that is leading the development of the system toward the certification and the European initiative in satellite navigation can be already utilized in the ECAC area with EGNOS System. Satellite navigation is at the moment used as supplementary mean to control all flight phases including on ground taxing and countries such as Australia are in the transition phase toward the utilization of the navigation systems as sole mean for air traffic control. Galileo will allow to select and to follow the best routes and will improve the efficiency in terms of fuel consumption and vehicles utilization time and all those improvements will apply both to the aeronautic and to the maritime traffic. It must be remembered that in Europe we have more than 100,000 km of internal navigable waterways. More over in the near future the position of transported goods and of all containers will be determined using satellite navigation systems by means of small transponder including a Galileo receiver. The railway companies will use this approach for containers control, but many other applications both in the area of “safety-of-life” and “non safety-of-life” are conceivable in the train fleet management field. Good examples of “safety-of-life” applications are the proximity sensors or speed limit warning systems. The European companies involved in the railroad transportation have already formed consortia to study the possibility to develop technologies based on satellite navigation systems that will allow to perform signaling, traffic control and locomotives localization in a more efficient way, cheaper and interoperable. Finally, but not less important, Galileo system will bring a significant impulse and improvement to the search and rescue system. Galileo will complement the COSPAS-SARSAT system, it will be able to provide a quasi-real time service, the distress user will be localized with an accuracy of a few meters and there will be the additional feature of the return message from the service centre to inform on the receipt of the distress message and on the time for intervention. 2.3. Agriculture The important economic scope of agriculture makes the actors playing in this field to seek for new products or to differentiate the existing ones and to achieve better and better efficiency. Galileo can help from animals position determination and control, through fertilizer, herbicide and insecticide management to support during harvest period. More over the satellite navigation can support the discovery of fraud and crimes against international regulations, eg growing products different from the ones authorized and funded by government or transportation of animals in unbearable conditions 2.4. Fishery Also fishermen are looking for an always better efficiency to be achieved by the localization of the best places to fish and optimize and shorten the routes. Similarly to agriculture, Galileo will help in verifying the international regulations are respected, by checking the position of each vessel during time. 2.5. Energy Many sectors of energy production, transportation and management are already making use of the applications related to satellite navigation and this will grow in the future. Oil and gas related operations such as exploration, pipe deployment and pipeline monitoring and control rely largely on an accurate positioning system. All those operations require a high degree of precision that only a system such as Galileo can provide on a worldwide basis. Electricity networks need precise synchronization systems and at the same time a monitoring system to locate as accurately as possible the source of problems or overloads. 2.6. Social life and Leisure Many aspects of the day-to-day life rely already on the satellite navigation: positioning of people for many reasons (safety, tourism, etc ) tracking of goods (cars, cameras, video cameras, etc) for insurance reasons, improvement of the life quality of disabled people. In this last field, studies are on-going to develop systems able to guide blind people. Insurance Companies are very much interested in keeping the position of a vehicle or other goods under control, or at least to be able to retrieve them after they have been stolen. The knowledge of the absolute time reference is of overwhelming importance in the world of finance now that all transactions are made on the network. Many other normal or more exotic applications will be developed in the near future due to the availability of Galileo System. 2.7. Science Natural phenomena observation and control are based upon tools that rely on positioning systems. Sea and oceans control, earthquakes exact location and, similarly to agriculture, animals (in this case wild) position determination and control constitutes fertile areas to develop applications based upon Galileo. 2.8. Governmental Applications Law enforcement applications of satellite navigation are many and important and ranges from anti- theft systems, through cheap measures alternative to jail, to the control of coasts and borders. Services of public utility, law enforcement, borders control, costal surveillance, custom operations will take benefit from the existence of Galileo system. The law enforcement applications will range from localization of personnel and goods to the limitation of the mobility for condemned people in alternative to jail, thus allowing the offenders to continue working and living at home. The terrestrial borders and the coasts will be controlled from remote centers both to stop illegal activities and to control the transportation of goods according to custom regulations. Finally all the fleets of vehicles such as ambulances, vehicles for police corps, fire rescue etc. will be controlled and also directed where they are needed in the shortest time possible by the use of Galileo system. 3. Improvement from the Introduction of Galileo System So far all the applications described above were based upon existing navigation systems and suffers for all the relevant shortcomings such as limited precision, limited reliability, absence of certification and service guarantee. The introduction of Galileo has been conceived, further to a number of strategic reasons for Europe, also to overcome all those limitations, without mentioning that the availability of two constellations at the same time will obviously improve the quality of the service (availability improves from 50% to 95% in the so called urban canyons). Galileo will be fully under civilian control and the design and development has been organized in a way that will allow the certification of the services. Many applications need service guarantee for different reasons: legal, commercial, safety and Galileo will provide a solution to law enforcement applications, safety of life applications, value added services and similar. Last but not least, Galileo will provide significantly better performances: the signal structure allows for the exploitation of various techniques such as TCAR (three carries phase measurement) that can improve the accuracy down to the centimeter level. Availability [%] Time of lower accuracy/day [sec] 99,999 1 GPS today GPS 2008 Galileo 2011 99,99 GPS + Galileo 10 Masking angle 25° “Urban canyons“ 1 99,9 100 99 1000 1 90 10000 1 0 100000 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Figure 3.1 : Comparison of Performances for the Introduction of Galileo References Rif 1: Tiziano Sassorossi: Galileo Program:Status and Perspectives – DASIA 2005 Rif 2: Galileo Joint Undertaking: An Overview of Market Developments and Emerging Applications. Rif 3: Tiziano Sassorossi: Il Sistema Galileo: il mercato e le applicazioni – Atti dell’ Istituto Italiano di Navigazione, Marzo - Giugno 2006.