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Is There a Future in Encore
Careers?
Discovering What’s Next
Lasell College
Newton, Massachusetts
Barry Bluestone
Dean, School of Public Policy & Urban Affairs
November 6, 2010
The Current Economy
The U.S. Labor Market – October
2010
14.8 million jobless
9.6% Unemployment Rate
Adult Women: 8.1%
Adult Women: 9.7%
Asians: 7.1%
Whites: 8.8%
Hispanics: 12.6%
Blacks: 15.7%
Teenagers: 27.1%
Source: BLS “Employment Situation Summary, November 5, 2010
Others in Trouble
Involuntary Part-Time: 9.2 million
Discouraged Workers: 2.5 million
TOTAL Unemployed, Involuntary Part-
Time, or Discouraged:
26.5 million
Massachusetts
U.S. Civilian Unemployment Rate Forecast
Percent Unemployed Seasonally Adjusted.
Forecast 50% 80%
Month Date Correct +/- Correct +/-
Value
0 Sep 2010 9.6 0.0 0.0
1 Oct 2010 9.6 0.2 0.4
2 Nov 2010 9.5 0.2 0.5
3 Dec 2010 9.5 0.2 0.5
4 Jan 2011 9.6 0.3 0.6
5 Feb 2011 9.7 0.3 0.6
6 Mar 2011 9.8 0.3 0.7
7 Apr 2011 9.8 0.3 0.7
8 May 2011 9.9 0.3 0
Source: http://www.forecasts.org/unemploy.htm
A Fragile Economic Recovery…
Monthly payroll employment change (excl. Census Jobs)
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400 Consistent monthly job
-500 growth of over 150K will
-600 be necessary to reduce
unemployment
-700
-800
07 08 09 10
…As Fiscal Stimulus Fades
Contribution to real GDP growth, %
5
Recovery Act Cash for
4 Clunkers
3
Tax rebate checks
2 Housing tax credit
1
0
-1
-2
08 09 10 11
Source: Moody’s Analytics
After the Recovery
The Labor Market over a Longer
Horizon
Projected Job Growth in the United States: 2008-2018
(in thousands)
Total Total Net Job Percent
Sector Employment Employment Growth Growth
2008 2018 2008-2018 2008-2018
Total nonagricultural
wage and salary 137,815 152,443 14,629 10.6
employment
Nonagricultural self-
employed and unpaid 10,837 11,550 713 6.6
family workers
(including secondary
jobs)
Total nonfarm
employment 148,652 163,993 15,341 10.3
Total agricultural
employment 2,280 2,212 -68 -3
Total employment
(wage and salary plus
self-employed – all
150,932 166,206 10.1
sectors) 15,274
Source: Based on Bureau of Labor Statistics projections for 2008-2018
Social Sector Industry Job Growth Projections:
2008-2018 (in thousands)
Private Sector Total
Employment
Total
Employment
Net Job
Growth
2008 2018 2008-2018
WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT
Health care and social assistance 15,819 19,816 3,997
Educational services 3,037 3,842 806
Nonprofits 2,973 3,353 379
Performing arts 118 127 9
Museums 132 161 29
Libraries 30 35 5
Total private social sector 22,109 27,333 5,224
Government Sector
2008 2018 Change
Federal government 2,764 2,859 95
State government 5,178 5,624 446
Local government 14,557 15,703 1,146
Total government 22,499 24,186 1,687
Total social sector
PRIVATE + PUBLIC 44,608 51,519 6,911
Total employment (wage and salary
plus self-employed – all sectors
including agricultural) 150,932 166,206 15,274
Total Social sector as percent of total
nonfarm wage and salary
employment 32.4% 33.8% 47.2%
Net, Less
Social Total Total Net Job
Physically
Demanding,
Employment Employment Growth Job Growth
Sector 2008 2018 2008-2018 2008-2018
WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT
Health care and social assistance 15,819 19,816 3,997 3,510
Educational services 3,037 3,842 806 750
Nonprofits 2,973 3,353 379 319
Performing arts 118 127 9 24
Museums 132 161 29 22
Libraries 30 35 5 4
Total private social sector 22,109 27,333 5,224 4,629
Federal government 2,764 2,859 95 75
State government 5,178 5,624 446 399
Local government 14,557 15,703 1,146 831
Total government 22,499 24,186 1,687 1,305
Total social sector 44,608 51,519 6,911 5,934
WWII: A Far Different Time
Rosie the Riveter
World War II might have turned out
quite differently if it were not for
Rosie the Riveter
With employers desperate to fill jobs,
millions of women jointed the labor
force using their considerable talent
to staff the nation’s factories,
America’s “arsenals of democracy”
From Unemployed Workers to
Unfilled Jobs
With unemployment near 10 percent, it might
appear far-fetched to suggest that we may
need Rosie’s equivalent before the end of this
decade
Yet, as the economy recovers, we will almost
surely see spot shortages in key occupations –
and soon after, the demand for workers could
outstrip supply in a broad range of industries
We will need Rosie’s Equivalent later this
decade
Demography is Destiny
Jobs vs. Workers
Encore Workers to the Rescue
Change in Adult U.S. Population by Age Cohort
2008-2018 (in millions)
12
10
Age 18-54: + 900,000 9.6
Age 55+: + 20,800,000 8.5
8
6
4.3
4
2.7
2
0
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
-2
-0.8 -0.9 -1.7
-4
Percent Change in Adult U.S. Population by Age Cohort
2008-2018
50.0%
44.2%
39.2%
40.0%
30.0%
19.8%
20.0%
12.4%
10.0%
0.0%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
-3.7% -4.1%
-10.0%
-7.8%
-20.0%
Potential Job Gap
At current labor force participation rates and a
dearth of younger workers, there will be more
than 15 million new jobs in 2018 but only
about 9 million new workers
Nearly half of these unfilled jobs could be in
the social sector
Only if the labor force participation of older
workers increases will labor supply meet labor
demand
Labor Force Participation Rates 2008 and 2018
2008 Rate 2018 Rate
Age Group (in percent) (in percent)
16-24 58.8 54.5
25-34 83.3 82.4
35-44 84.1 83.2
45-54 81.9 81.7
55-64 64.5 68.1
65-74 25.1 30.5
75+ 7.3 10.3
Total 66 64.5
Coaxing Older Folks to Work
Employers will need to redesign and
restructure many jobs so they appeal to an
older workforce
Need retraining for older workers
Need to create entirely new kinds of jobs
Adjunct teachers, mentors, tutors, content advisers,
project coordinators
Community health workers, chronic illness coaches,
medication coaches, patient advocates
Conclusion
Despite high unemployment, it is time to
prepare for a future where we will need
all the older workers we can find.
Let’s begin to figure out how to fill the
jobs gap now … even when a jobs gap
seems to be about as strange an
outcome as one could imagine.
