Extraneous Variables and Internal and External Validity by HC12091102425

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									               Extraneous Variables and Internal and External Validity
                                     Martin Kozloff

Extraneous variables are variables that aren’t a planned part of research; e.g.,
research on whether certain instructional methods are associated with higher
achievement. Extraneous variables may “interact with” independent (input,
intervention) variables (instructional methods) to produce an effect; e.g., teacher
warmth may interact with how the teacher demonstrates a math routine, and yield
greater attention and acquisition of skill. Or extraneous variables may produce an
effect all by themselves; e.g., home instruction might increase math achievement.
Therefore, change (or lack of change) in dependent (outcome) variables (e.g., math
achievement) may be entirely or partly the result of extraneous variables, such as
maturation, or other things happening inside and outside of school (e.g., siblings
teach some students to read) or measurement error (students appear to read better
because observers at the outcome assessment failed to count many errors) or bias in
selection (e.g., if the experimental group has many bright students and the control
group doesn’t, that difference---and not instruction---may account for differences in
achievement). Findings and conclusions aren’t valid, credible (believable),
dependable, or good evidence for making decisions if researchers can’t rule out
the strong possibility that OTHER factors account for findings.


Let’s say you are using official statistics to see which kind of reading program
produces the highest achievement in a school district. You use end-of-grade test
scores to divide the district into (1) schools in which over 80% of students pass the
tests; and (2) schools in which less than 80% of students pass the tests. Then you
contact the schools and interview administrators and teachers to find out how their
schools teach reading. But what if, in general, schools with the lowest reading
achievement also have administrators who are so out of touch with school instruction
that they really can’t tell you how they teach reading? Your data on how their
schools teach reading would not be accurate; your data would be invalid. In this
case, the inaccuracy of the “observer” (the administrator) is an extraneous variable


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that muddies the picture. It’s called “extraneous” because it’s not part of the
process you are investigating.


                         The Relationship Being Studied
         Reading instruction  Measurement (and therefore findings) on
                                 Reading Achievement
                ^ ^ ^              ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
                | | |              | | | | | | |

           Maturation                 Measurement error
           Home instruction           Biased sample
           Teacher communicates       Experimental mortality (poor readers
            high expectations         drop out)

Possible Extraneous Variables that Influence Findings on the Possible Relationship


      Or, let’s say you are conducting an experiment to see if peer tutoring will
increase retention of math skills. Some students participate in peer tutoring (for a
month) and others don’t. You compare math skills before, right at the end, and every
week for five weeks after the month of peer tutoring. Sure enough, students who
participated in peer tutoring do maintain math skills more than students who did not
receive peer tutoring. But what if more of the students who received peer tutoring
also had siblings who worked with them on math at home, and what if this IN PART
affected their retention of math skills? Help at home would also be an extraneous
variable that muddies the picture, and makes your findings (“Peer tutoring seems to
be effective.”) invalid. In summary, many other things besides the hypothesized
independent variables can account for findings. An important part of research is
trying to rule out the possibility that OTHER factors (extraneous variables) account
for findings.


"Internal validity" refers to how accurately the data and the conclusions drawn from
the data (e.g., Change in X causes change in Y) represent what really happened. For
example, looking at pre-test and post-test scores, it may seem that a training

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program increased teachers' skills. However, some of the difference between pre- and
post-test scores may be the result of measurement error; during the post-test,
observers wrongly scored some sloppy teaching as “proficient.”
       "External validity" refers to how accurately the data and your conclusions
drawn from the data (e.g., Change in X causes change in Y) represent what goes on in
the larger population. For instance, if a sample of teacher-trainees is biased in
some way (e.g., the sample contains a higher proportion of motivated trainees than is
found in the general population of potential teacher-trainees), then findings from the
sample may not apply to (won’t describe) the general population.
       Note that findings and inferences may have internal validity but not external
validity. That is, findings and conclusions may accurately represent what was found
in the sample studied, but may not apply to other samples. However, if findings and
conclusions don’t have internal validity, then they surely don’t have external validity
either.
       The factors that can weaken internal and external validity are called
"extraneous variables.” Maturation of study participants is an example. Change in
children's skills during instruction may reflect maturation of the nervous system and
muscles as well as the effects of instruction. So, if the research hypothesis is that
instruction will increase children's skills, the "rival hypothesis" is that maturation will
increase children's skills. That’s why it is important to identify possible extraneous
variables (sources of "contamination"). You can then design research to weaken or
eliminate the effects of these variables, or you can analyze the data to determine
what effect the extraneous variables have had. For example, if you use an
experimental and control group, and if you created the two groups using the method
of randon allocation, then you weaken the rival hypothesis of maturation---since
children in both groups have an equal chance of improving as a result of maturation.


             Extraneous Variables That Are Threats to Internal Validity


1. Instruments don’t measure what they purport to measure. In other words, the
findings aren’t valid. For instance,

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a. The dependent (outcome) variable is reading proficiency. However, that isn’t
   what the researcher is measuring. Instead, the researcher is measuring behavior
   such as turning pages, naming parts of a book, holding books properly, memorizing
   words, and guessing what words say. If the researcher is “testing” a new method
   of reading instruction (a method that does NOT work), this method will APPEAR to
   be effective because the researcher isn’t measuring reading at all. Consumers
   should expect researchers to use standardized validated methods and
   instruments, or expect researchers to carefully define variables, and then develop
   valid measures based on these definitions.
b. The measurement method or instrument has not been tested for            reliability;
that is, different observers or testers observing the same thing    would NOT get the
same scores. If a method or instrument isn’t of known        high reliability, then a
   group receiving an intervention may appear to have        made a lot of progress
   between pre-test and post-test, but only because          the post-test scores were
wrong.
      Therefore, consumers should expect researchers to use methods and
   instruments with known high reliability, and should expect researchers to       check
that observers and testers produce reliable data before a study     begins, and
periodically during a study if repeated measurement is used.
c. Data that should be OBJECTIVE (e.g., counting how often teachers properly
   correct student errors) are in fact subjective---opinions, impressions. These
   subjective data (“I learned a lot!” “Training was excellent.” “I am confident that
   I can properly teach the five reading skills.”) can’t be used to determine if a
   program or method is effective or if teachers are proficient. Why? For the same
   reason that you can use subjective opinions to determine if a medication is
   effective. If a drug works, there will be objective changes in the body. If a
   program works, there will be objective changes in student behavior. Opinions
   don’t measure proficiency; they measure feelings. Also, opinions and feelings and
   impressions change—and therefore aren’t reliable indicators of hard facts of
   proficiency.



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2. History. History includes events in addition to the independent variables under
study, that occur between one measurement and another (e.g., between a pre-test
and post-test). For example, in testing the effects of an exercise program on
psychological well-being following heart attack, some participants joined a church, or
received additional social support, or changed jobs. These extraneous (history)
variables may account for some of the differences between pre- and post-test scores.
       To weaken history as a rival hypothesis, researchers should use equivalent
experimental and control groups (created by random allocation or matching). Since
the groups are, logically, likely to have the same historical variables happening
between pre- and post-test, differences in the outcomes aren’t likely to be the result
of history.


3. Maturation. Maturation refers to changes that ordinarily occur with time (e.g.,
strength, increasing knowledge). For instance, let’s say a new method to increase
children’s attention span is tested in an experimental intervention. And let’s say that
most children are more attentive two months later, during the post-test. The
experimenter may think this improvement is the result of the method, but the rival
hypothesis is simply that the children became more mature, and THAT increased their
attention. To handle the extraneous variable of maturation, researchers use
equivalent comparison groups, or us use experimental designs in which the
experimental group serves as its own control (e.g., the equivalent time samples
design).


4. Testing. This refers to the effects of taking one test on the results of a later test.
For instance, improvement in scores might reflect decreasing fear of being tested, or
figuring out what kinds of answers are correct.
       Testing can be controlled in part by using different versions of the same tests
and by using comparison groups in which one group does not receive a pre-test.


5. Statistical regression. A person's performance of any task varies within a certain
range. On the average, you may be able to do 10 pull-ups, but on a particular day

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you may do 8, 9, 11, or 12. In fact, there may be days when your performance is quite
unusual--you can barely do 5 pull-ups, or somehow you manage to do 18. However, if
you did pull-ups the next day, and the day after that, your performance would
probably regress (move) to the mean, or your average performance.
      In research, a group's pre-test performance might (by chance) be unusually
high or low; some people had a good day or a bad day. On later testing, the group's
performance regresses to the mean (i.e., is more usual). The researcher may
mistakenly treat differences between pre- and post-test scores as the result of an
intervention ("They improved.") or as the failure of an intervention ("They got
worse!"), when in fact, the group merely turned in its average or usual performance.
      The rival hypothesis of statistical regression can be partly controlled by using
equivalent comparison groups, since the possibility of unusual scores applies equally
to the groups.


6. Selection bias. In research using comparison groups, some participants in one
group may be different from those in the other group(s) in ways that affect
performance. For instance, an experimental group may do much better on a post-test
than the control group, not because the experimental intervention was effective but
because more of the experimental group members figured out how to take the test
(See number 3 above.). Similarly, the pre-test/post-test differences between the
experimental and control group may be small, suggesting that the intervention did
not work. However, in fact, the control group contained many people who WERE
likely to change as a result of maturation or some historical factor, and so they gotr
high scores even though they received no intervention.
      This source of invalidity can be handled, in part, by random allocation of
participants to comparison groups. This way, all possibly biasing factors have an
equal chance of being in both groups.


7. Experimental mortality. This refers to the differential loss of participants from
comparison groups. For example, an experimental intervention may appear to work
only because participants with whom it was not going to work dropped out.

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Similarly, an intervention may appear to work no better than nothing at all, only
because people in the control group who would have gotten WORSE over time
dropped out, leaving people in the control group who improved. Thus, the control
group scores about the same as the experimental group.
      The rival hypothesis of experimental mortality can be partly controlled by using
equivalent comparison groups, since the chances of dropping out should be about
equal in the two groups.


9. Causal time order. Here, participants began to change prior to an intervention,
but the researcher does not know this. It only appears that the intervention is the
cause of the change.
                           |     |                    *
                           |     |                 *
                           |     |           * *
                           |     |     * *
                           |     | *
                           | * |
                           |     |
                           |     |
                           |__|__|__|__|__|__|__|__|__|___

                            Pre-        Intervention
                            Test




This is what is really happening.


                       |            |                          *
                       |            |                      *
                       |            |             *    *
                                              7
                      |          |    * *
                      |          | *
                      |        * |
                      |      *   |
                      |   *      |
                      |__|__|_|_|__|__|__|__|__|__|__|__|__

                      Repeated                 Intervention
                      Pre-tests

Notice that change during the intervention is just a continuation of what had already
begun.

      A partial solution is an extended series of repeated baseline or pre-intervention
observations, to assess the stability of performance before an intervention. If the
“baseline” or pre-test scores are stable (mostly a straight line), and scores ONLY rise
AFTER the intervention begins, you have evidence that the intervention is having an
effect. For example


                      |         |                    *
                      |         |                 *
                      |         |           * *
                      |         |     * *
                      |         | *
                      |         |
                      |         |
                      |   * * * |
                      |__|__|_|_|__|__|__|__|__|__|__|__|__

                      Repeated                 Intervention
                      Pre-tests
                      [Stable]




10. Diffusion or imitation. Here, part of an intervention given to an experimental
group is used by members of the control group. Thus, the intervention does not



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appear to make much of a difference, because both groups have changed. For
example, families in a training program lend materials to friends in the control group.
      One way to try to control this is to make sure that members of the comparison
groups don’t know one another. Another method isn’t to tell participants what group
they are in---a single blind study. However, this may pose ethical problems. Still
another method is to use delayed-intervention control groups (so that members of the
control group may be more willing to wait).


11. Compensatory rivalry. Knowing they are in a control group, some participants
try to change on their own. Improvement in the control group may be mistaken to
mean that the intervention is no better than no intervention. One way to handle this
isn’t to tell participants which group they are in. This is called a “single blind” study.


12. Demoralization. Knowing they are in a control group, and not receiving an
intervention that they want, some members of the control group look worse over time
than they otherwise would. This may result in differences between the experimental
and control group being mistaken for the effects of the intervention. (Imagine the
effects on their life expectancy if people with aides knew that they were in the
control group of a drug experiment.)
      A partial solution is to use a delayed-treatment design (rather than no-
treatment design). Also, one could use alternative treatment groups rather than a
control group.




             Extraneous Variables That Are Threats to External Validity
Keep in mind that all of the threats to internal validity are also threats to external
validity. Additional threats to external validity include the following.


13. Reactive or interactive effects of testing "Reactive" effects of testing means
that a pre-test alone influences post-test performance. "Interactive" effects of testing

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means that a pre-test influences how people are affected by an intervention. If the
performance of an experimental group after an intervention has been influenced by
the pre-test, the findings (e.g., amount of beneficial change resulting from
treatment) may not apply to the general population which isn’t likely to receive a
pre-test.
       Therefore, it may be important to assess the effects of pre-testing itself. An
experimental design call the Solomon Four-group Design is an effort to control this
source of invalidity.


14. Interaction of selection bias and X (intervention) Here, a bias in the selection
of the experimental group results in enough members of the experimental group being
especially likely to be affected (or not affected) by X, so that the experimental
group’s post-test scores are higher than scores of the control group. But since
samples in the general population aren’t likely to have this bias, the results of the
intervention with other samples may be less than in the experiment.
       One way to handle selection bias is to use random sampling so that study
samples are equivalent to the general population.


15. Interactive effects of experimental arrangements. If the performance of people
in an experimental group was affected (positively or negatively) by certain features of
the experiment, or by the fact that it was seen by them as an experiment, findings
from the experimental group may not apply to samples from the general population
who will receive the intervention in a nonexperimental setting. For instance,
teachers in an experimental training program (which gives them a sense of being
special) may change more than later trainees who simply receive a course on the
same material. There is no way getting around this one. The more you control a
situation so that you get valid data, the LESS the situation is like real life, and
therefore, the results you got in the contrived setting may not happen outside of it.
However, you CAN TEST THAT very hypothesis by replicating the research in more and
more natural settings, and see if the results remain about the same.



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