BRIEFING BOOK RUSSIA

BRIEFING BOOK: RUSSIA This week: an exclusive interview with the President of Russia, Dmitri Medvedev. It is perhaps the longest and most comprehensive interview he has given since assuming office. Russia is a world power which will determine in part what the world is going to look like in the future. No one is sure what place Russia wants to occupy in the world. Does it want to be part of the new global structures of power or does it see them as all too Western dominated and wishes to set itself apart from them? One thing is sure, it wants power and influence. It has not reconciled itself to its diminished place on the map since 1990. Dean Acheson once said of Britain after World War 2, "It has lost its empire and it has not found its role." That is doubly true of Russia today. Some people look at Russia and conclude that the picture is all bad. And certainly in the last few years, Russia has moved backward on a number of measures of democracy and human rights. But overall, it still remains a much more open and free society than it was during the communist era. And even today, there do appear to be two Russias -- one characterized by a thuggish police state, using its oil wealth to wield power, stifling civil society, democracy, and a free press. And the other is the Russia of younger people, more modern, connected to the world, aware of global trends and hoping that Russia will participate in them more fully. In a way, these two pictures of Russia have been around for a while. One hundred and fifty years ago, a furious debate erupted among Russian intellectuals. On the one hand, Slavophiles, who believed Russia was unique, different from the West, and would evolve on its own path. On the other, the Westernizers, who believed that Russia needed to catch up with modernity and that this meant learning from and cooperating with the West. CIA Factbook Russia HERE In the last few years, the insular Russia has dominated the picture. But could a new, more modern, more cooperative country be emerging? One reason some people have hope is that the new President of Russia talks in tones quite different from those of Vladimir Putin, the Prime Minister who most believe is the true ruler of the country. Just last week, a day before Fareed met with him, Medvedev penned an extraordinary article for a Russian website. It was a frontal critique of Russia today -- its oilbased economy, its bad business habits, its corruption, and its unhealthy civil society. Does this mean Medvedev intends to genuinely reform Russia? Can he? Does he have any power anyway? Medvedev’s article, Go Russia Click HERE for more on Dmitry Medvedev Click HERE for The Economist Country Briefings: Russia FAREED’S ANALYSIS OF THE INTERVIEW Fareed says that what struck him about the interview with Medvedev was how bright and articulate he is. “He knows his mind, he speaks and thinks fast on his feet, he understands English and didn’t use an earpiece for simultaneous translation throughout the interview, but clearly does not trust that in a formal interview he would say exactly what he wants to say in English. Some parts of the interview really stand out. WHO IS REALY IN CHARGE? Most Russian experts believe Putin is the one who wields all of the power in Russia and Medvedev is simply the ceremonial facade. When Fareed asked Medvedev for his response to this, Medvedev bristled at the suggestion that he was not in charge. After reading the Russian constitution for himself, Fareed says that the president is the superior office, at least on paper. When he asked if Medvedev considers himself Vladimir Putin’s boss, Medvedev responded that under the Russian Constitution, there is one commander-in-chief, there is only one guarantor of the constitution, the head of the state - and that’s the president of the country whom you are now talking to. In Russia, he says, there is so much red tape that no one can “lift a finger without [him] signing a paper first” and that this is a false stereotype of Putin and himself. He is the one ultimately in charge. When asked if he considers himself more liberal than Putin, Medvedev stresses that he and Putin ‘share the same blood” in being similarly educated as lawyers not affiliated with the KGB or intelligence. ISRAEL President Medvedev made some news in this interview by confirming the meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu. This was a secret meeting that took place in Moscow. He confirmed that it did in fact happen and sounded convinced that Israel does not intend a military strike on Iran, at least not anytime soon. He seemed to have gotten some assurances, particularly from President Peres,that the Israelis were not going to strike. Medvedev also spoke to the President of Israel one hour after meeting with Fareed and said that after meeting with Mr. Peres, “who when recently visiting me in Sochi, told a very important thing to all of us. He said, Israel doesn't intend to deliver any strike against Iran. He said, we are a peaceful country, we will not deal such a blow. Therefore any deliveries of systems -defensive systems which are aimed at protecting, cannot increase danger, they should reduce it. Now if there are people who still have such plans, I believe they should reflect on all of these things. Our task being not to enhance Iran or to weaken Israel or vice-versa. Our task boils down to making sure that the Middle East is a quiet, normal place for all to live in. That's the task of the day.” “Netanyahu secretly visited Russia: reports” Reuters “Medvedev: Israel not planning to strike Iran” The Associated Press IRAN Medvedev was also tougher on the Iranians than Fareed has heard him or Prime Minister Putin before. In the interview when Fareed asked Medvedev about how Russia says it will not support any further sanctions against Iran, Medvedev discussed how they have their own developed relations with Iran. Medvedev spoke about President Ahmadinejad’s visits with Russia including participating as an observer to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting. What was interesting to Fareed was how he repeatedly insisted that Iran cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency. “Good Will, but Few Foreign Policy Benefits for Obama” New York Times --“And Russia rejected new sanctions against Iran's nuclear program even as Mr. Obama heads into talks with Tehran.” “The Kremlin Wants A War in Iran” RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty BIDEN Fareed was struck by was Medvedev’s comments on Vice President Biden’s rather disparaging comments on Russia. Fareed didn’t actually ask Medvedev about it, but Medvedev went into some length about it anyway. What has Mr. Biden in fact said? He said, almost literally, the following: Russia agrees with us on the nuclear weapons issue because their economy is weak, and they cannot maintain that weaponry themselves. It's a mistake! “First, the nuclear weapons are such a sphere of influence that any state who has it, pays great attention to. And I'm sure that even the weakest states would reduce their defense expenditures last of all. Therefore, it is my understanding that if this is a reflection of the opinion of one individual, then that's the question for the U.S. Administration. But if it's a reflection of the policy, then we'll need to give it thought – about what's going on and what’s about to happen.” “Medvedev: US need not abandon Ukraine or Georgia” Breaking News (from July) DEMOCRACY IN RUSSIA Fareed says that President Medvedev’s comments differ from the analysis of most Russia experts who feel that Russia has really back-tracked significantly with regard to democracy, human rights, press freedoms. He talked about having a free press but really that is only true in the area of the print media. Most of Russian television, all of Russian television really, is now effectively owned or controlled by the Russian government. He does talk about Russia being a young democracy, which is true, so one can hope that this is part of a maturation process and that eventually Russia will have greater and deeper democracy. But for now Fareed thinks the picture is not as bright as President Medvedev makes it out to be. More on Democracy in Russia: Voters in Moscow will go to the polls next month to elect a new legislature. This national event is made all the more important because the October 11 poll will be the first opportunity many Russians will voice their opinions after a year-long economic crisis that resulted in a double-digit drop in GDP and increased unemployment. “Russians Want Democracy” according to an article published In the Wall Street Journal this week. They may want democracy but this election is unlikely to give it to them. “The authorities have disqualified every single candidate nominated by Solidarity, the umbrella organization encompassing Russia's pro-democracy opposition forces, leaving voters to choose among pro-Kremlin candidates of different shades. In every case the pretext for disqualification was "invalid" signatures in support of the nomination. One Solidarity candidate had his own signature discounted as fraudulent. Another's "invalid" signatures were found to account for 104% of the total submitted. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's long-expected hint over the weekend that he may seek the presidency once again in 2012 further underscores the self-perpetuating mechanics of power in the country today. Read more from WSJ’s “Russians Want Democracy” ”Kremlin Offers Lessons on Democracy” New York Times “Putin risks becoming "new Brezhnev:" Medvedev aide” Reuters 2012 In the interview, Fareed asked Medvedev if he would run again in 2012. Medvedev replied that if the conditions were right, “why not?” “The 2012 question” Moscow News ”Medvedev not ruling out run in 2012 elections” The Associated Press MENTIONED ON THE SHOW THIS WEEK US-RUSSIAN RELATIONS- “Reset of relations?” President Obama and Mrs. Clinton have talked about a reset of relations and the Russian ambassador to NATO said that after the Obama-Medvedev meetings, if a good result takes place, it could usher in a new era in Russian-American relations. Fareed spoke with Medvedev about US-Russian Relations, the time Medvedev has spent with Obama and more. Fareed gives Medvedev a theory as to why Russia should want to have much better relations with the West than it does now. Russia's great challenge is modernizing its economy. To do that, it needs to have constant interactions and good relations with the centers of modernity in Western Europe and the United States and Japan. Russia's strategic challenge is radical, violent Islam and Islamic movements to its south, a complicated and potentially chaotic situation in the Far East, where there would be 30 million Russians and one billion Chinese facing each other. In this circumstance, to have these constant frictions with the West and with the United States does not serve Russia's national interest. Medvedev agreed with one caveat: improving relations with the West is not a one-way street – the West needs good relations with Russia as well. OBAMA Fareed asked Medvedev about President Obama. Medvedev says he enjoyed spending some 8 hours with President Obama on his visit to Russia and expounded on several of Obama’s good qualities. He says he is thankful that Obama wants to sort out many problems through thoughtful policy-making. What is Medvedev looking for from the American administration? He stressed that he expects the Obama administration to listen to them on the Ukraine and Georgia issues. MISSILE DEFENSE SHIELD Medvedev said that “if the number of countries joining NATO is getting greater and greater, and NATO is approaching Russia, it doesn't give us any satisfaction. We don't like it. We are openly stating that. And this position, I believe, has found understanding with several European states who suggest that one shouldn't expedite joining NATO for certain countries who are not ready to do that.” In July, the missile shield issue came up in July during a meeting between Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in Moscow. Obama maintained that Russia had nothing to fear from such a system, which would be designed to intercept a solitary missile from Iran or North Korea, as opposed to "a mighty Russian arsenal." The United States proposed the plan under George W. Bush but Obama, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Gen. James E. Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff held press conferences this week essentially scrapping the program. CNN reports that while there was no comment Thursday morning from Russian officials, the issue has been a sore point in relations between Washington and Moscow, with Russia believing the shield would ultimately erode its own strategic nuclear deterrent (as seen in the interview). Vice President Biden has said he is "deeply" involved in the review of the missile defense program. See how the system would work » | See a map of the proposed sites » President Barack Obama's decision to cancel the Bush administration's proposed missile defense shield garners praise and condemnation worldwide. Russia vehemently opposed the missile defense that was be sited in Poland and the Czech Republic. Supporters saw Obama's decision as emblematic of his less confrontational approach and as recognition that the missile plan was an expensive response to a threat that might not exist. Critics in the U.S. and abroad, particularly in Eastern Europe, saw it as capitulation to Russia. Some believe that scrapping the missile defense shield was intended to be a tradeoff for Russia's support on the Iranian nuclear dossier, but they gripe that Obama hasn't yet gotten any commitments from Russia on that issue. Obama says that the cancellation was "not about Russia." "Missile shield cancellation disappoints Poles" Telegraph (UK) "A Better Missile Defense for a Safer Europe" New York Times by Robert M. Gates "Obama's Decision to Be 'the Anti-Bush' Won't Help Russia in the Long Run" Georgian Daily "Cold war vs post-cold war" Pakistan Observer "Obama: Missile defense decision not about Russia" Associated Press “Why Obama dropped European missile defense shield: Administration cites technological advances and a shifting threat from Iran. But many in Eastern Europe worry the US is simply appeasing Russia.” Christian Science Monitor “Barack Obama surrenders to Russia on Missile Defence” Telegraph UK “Russia's Reaction on Missile Plan Leaves Iran Issue Hanging” New York Times “Obama: calming 'paranoid' Russians” Politico CORRUPTION AND COMPETITIVENESS Fareed mentions several corruption and competitiveness indexes that recently came out. This year Russia dropped 12 places on the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness index. For the full report click HERE It’s now 63rd. It’s behind Mexico and Indonesia. Transparency International has a corruption index. Download HERE Russia now ties with Bangladesh and Syria on that index. Read more about Russia from Transparency International HERE The Economist Magazine says the government has utterly failed to create a legal and political structure to support business and enterprise “The long arm of the state” The Economist More from The Economist country briefing: Russia HERE MORE FAREED’S BRIEFING BOOK: RUSSIA ECONOMY Russia's economic recovery is yet far from being sustainable and there could be a rise in unemployment and a plunge in oil and commodities prices this autumn, a top Kremlin aide said told Reuters. “Kremlin aide says Russian recovery not solid yet” “Russia has spent more than half of the 15 trillion roubles ($480 billion) it has allocated to fight the economic crisis that hit the country a year ago, according to Reuters calculations based on Kremlin documents. Excluding collateral-free loans and deposits that have already been paid back, the spending to date stands at $240 billion. The vast majority of the state spending, or 6.6 trillion roubles, came in the first six months of the crisis, which saw the rouble weaken by a third and halted production as demand and capital deteriorated. Russia's good economic fortunes that brought growth of more than 7 percent between 2003 and 2007, swiftly reversed into a recession, which saw gross domestic product shrinking by 10.1 percent in the first half of 2009. The Kremlin's top economic adviser, Arkady Dvorkovich, told Reuters Russia Investment Summit that the government's anticrisis program has tamed the economic decline and that the effects of federal support should be visible this quarter. Dvorkovich said the current measures are sufficient to help lift the economy out of the crisis but the government is ready to spend more if the situation deteriorates. The economy showed some signs of month-on-month growth in the summer but most officials have said it is premature to call the trend sustainable. According to the Kremlin documents, the major responsibility to aid the economy has shifted from the central bank to the government, which has allocated 2.4 trillion roubles in its 2009 budget for the anti-crisis measures.” “Russia has spent half of $480 billion crisis package” Reuters MORE: “The Kremlin's think tank” Moscow News From the Cold War days, when foreign experts would try to work out who was really in charge in Moscow from the septuagenarian lineup on Lenin's mausoleum, ... “The week in review - Medvedev slams Russia's economy” Moscow News President Dmitry Medvedev has slammed Russia's "humiliating" economy and lack of political freedom in an article on various web sites, including liberal ... “Two Faces of Russia” Washington Post “Russia set to push G-20 agenda _ but not so hard” Forbes “ Russia will press for more follow-through on existing measures to confront the global recession and for changes in Western-dominated international financial institutions at next week's summit of rich and developing countries, a top aide to President Dmitry Medvedev said Thursday..The Kremlin has long bristled at U.S. global dominance in political, military and financial affairs. Russian officials have recently downplayed their calls for other currencies to supplement the dollar's reserve currency status. But Dvorkovich said Russia will press for more clout for developing countries in organizations such as the International Monetary Fund at the Sept. 24-25 summit in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Dvorkovich said.” “Putin mum on his future plans” Independent Online