GE by lanyuehua

VIEWS: 3 PAGES: 57

									Exploring The Road Ahead:
Forces Shaping the Coming Decades


        Andrew Zolli
        Z + Partners
        December 2003
Good Afternoon!

 Me, in three bullet points:
    Founding partner of Z + Partners, a futures-
     research and strategy think-tank

    Futurist-in-residence at Popular Science
     Contributing Writer for Wired
     Author, Editor of the Catalog of Tomorrow

    Former CMO and co-founder of the digital
     practice at Siegel & Gale
How Do We Study the Future?


                 Prototyping   Qualitative
                  (Design!)    Scenarios




          Historical                   Quantitative
        Extrapolation                   Modeling




                   Expert        Game
                  Analysis      Playing
A Few Key Distinctions



 Trends: shorter-term, predictive, susceptible to ‘wild
         cards’, tend to be studied in isolation from
         one another.

 Futures: longer-term, exploratory, systemic, used to
          understand possible complex circumstances.
Apophenia: the spontaneous
perception of connections and
meaningfulness in apparently
unrelated things.
Common Sources?




                  +
Common Sources?




                  +
                                Centralised
                                Influence




          Neo-Socialist World                 Illusory World




Regulated Economy                                              Free Market
    & Industry                                                 Economy



             Balanced World                   Jungle World



                                Distributed
                                Influence
             II.
Five Key Drivers of Change
1. The Rise of the Experience Economy


                    Experience
                     Economy
Moving Up The Chain of Meaning

                Design As Differentiator

 Commodities   Products       Services     Experiences




   $.10        $.25          $1.00          $4.50

               Commodification Pressure
2. The New Naturalism


                   Experience
                    Economy
                                The New
                                Naturalis
                                   m
Caenorhabditis elegans
Just Screw It.
3. Brands as Culture


                       Experience
                        Economy
                                    The New
                                    Naturalis
                                       m



                              Brands as
                               Culture
Old vs. New



                                                  experience
                    experience



   communications      behavior

                                        communications         behavior




                                  vs.
New Technologies of Intimacy
#1 is HomeDepot.com




#2 is HomeDepotSucks.com




#3 is HomeDepot’s Suppliers
4.) New Global Demographic Frictions


                     Experience
                      Economy
                                  The New
                                  Naturalis
                                     m


               Demo-
                            Brands as
               graphic
                             Culture
               Friction
A Population Pyramid

                       80




                       0

        Men                 Women
Egypt Today

              80




              0

       Men         Women
Iran Now

             80




             0

       Men        Women
Botswana 2025

                80




                0

       Men           Women
Russia 2025

              80




              0

        Men        Women
USA Now

            80




            0

      Men        Women
USA 2025

             80




             0

       Men        Women
+     ?
or

vs.
      ?
5.) The Integration of Digital and Analog


                        Experience
                         Economy
            Digital/
                                     The New
             Analog
                                     Naturalis
           Integratio
                                        m
               n


                 Demo-
                               Brands as
                 graphic
                                Culture
                 Friction
         III.
Responding To Change
    Thank You!

    Download this at
www.zpluspartners.com/ge
   [manifest/change]

      Email me at
andrew@zpluspartners.com
About Z + Partners

 Z + Partners is a forecasting, ideation and design
 think-tank.

 We help organizations understand emerging
 futures, invent breakthrough ideas, position for new
 opportunities, and design innovations that benefit
 both business and society.
What Z + Partners Does
                                 1. Original Research
                                    on Emerging Issues
                                    and Future Trends
      8. Public Speaking
                                                            2. Scenario Planning,
         Company Briefings,
                                                               Trend and Futures
         Seminars and
                                                               Mapping
         Workshops


 7. Internal Training                                           3. Ideation and Invention
    of Futures Research                                            of new opportunities
    Methods and Tools                                              for innovation, incubation,
                                                                   and investment


   6. Futures Reporting                                     4. Design Prototyping
      to Management Teams                                      for Future Products,
      on Emerging Issues                                       Services, and Customer
                                                               Experiences
                              5. Strategic Brand Planning
                                 and Brand-Forecasting

								
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