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PowerPoint Presentation - Human Social Dynamics

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					     Human Social Dynamics
          at the Santa Fe Institute


Past triumphs & promising directions
                    Human Social Dynamics:
                       past triumphs
                From a group meeting at SFI last week:
                                        evolution
                                                            innovation
  Sugarscape          A-Life
  Echo                                 evolutionary algorithm
  Anasazi
                                                             dynamical systems
  Bali              Pgame theory
                                                  actors
        cognition
                       artificial stock markets     emotions
evolutionary game theory
                                    networks               eeconomies
               emergence
                    Human Social Dynamics:
                       past triumphs
                From a group meeting at SFI last week:
                                        evolution
                                                            innovation
  Sugarscape          A-Life
  Echo                                 evolutionary algorithm
  Anasazi
                                                             dynamical systems
  Bali              Pgame theory
                                                  actors
        cognition
                       artificial stock markets     emotions
evolutionary game theory
                                    networks               eeconomies
               emergence


      Rethinking major paradigms: equilibrium theory, rational actor model
    Human Social Dynamics:
       past triumphs
From a group meeting at SFI:

Elements of a new paradigm:

• Societies as co-created, out-of- equilibrium
dynamical systems

• Generated by agents with bounded
knowledge/rationality

• Affected by past states & externalities

• local interactions may produce emergent global
structure or properties
                   Human Social Dynamics:
                      past triumphs
               From a group meeting at SFI:

               Elements of a new paradigm:

               • Societies as co-created, out-of- equilibrium
Cross-         dynamical systems                                  Cross-
disciplinary                                                      disciplinary
perspectives   • Generated by agents with bounded                 perspectives
               knowledge/rationality

               • Affected by past states & externalities

               • local interactions may produce emergent global
               structure or properties
                         Human Social Dynamics:
                            past triumphs
                   SFI working papers 1994-2003 Uniquely interdisciplinary???




Resident faculty
External faculty
Postdocs
Other
Human Social Dynamics:
   past triumphs

    Some Past SFI hits:

    Prosocial behavior
    Tech/org Landscape
    Anasazi,Bali, Mesa Verde
    Echo
    Sugarscape
    Florence
    DAT/ASM/DAD
    Econo-physics
    Small worlds
    Comp Political Economy
    Learning in games
    Increasing Returns
               Human Social Dynamics:
                  past triumphs
                Some Past SFI hits:        Long Term
Origins:                                   Implications:
                Anasazi,Bali, Mesa Verde
                Echo
Alife           Sugarscape                 Agent-Based
Adaptive        Florence                    Modeling
Computation     DAT/ASM/DAD                Swarm etc.
Theoretical     Econo-physics              Learning
Computation     Small worlds               Bounded Rat/ZI
Evol Biology    Prosocial behavior         Dis-equilibrium
Psychology      Tech/org Landscape         Networks
                Comp Political Economy
Economics                                  Robustness
                Learning in games
Anthropology    Increasing Returns         Communication
Physics         Etc.!!!                    Organization
                                           Innovation/Novelty
                                           Scaling
     Human Social Dynamics
             at the Santa Fe Institute


What are we doing?
     1.   Social innovation
     2.   Emotions, cognition, learning
     3.   Evolution of networks & exchange
     4.   Sociocultural evolution
     5.   Political violence
     6.   Market evolution & finance
     7.   Gene-culture-society-language coevolution
     8.   Robustness of Human & Natural Systems
      Human Social Dynamics
               Social Innovation

     Neutral networks: from biology to economics

Consider the technological landscape as a search space…

by “muddling through”, firms may find new peaks…
      Human Social Dynamics
               Social Innovation

     Neutral networks: from biology to economics

Consider the technological landscape as a search space…

by “muddling through”, firms may find new peaks

how does communication affect coordination?
   Human Social Dynamics
           Social Innovation

Promising directions:
      • What are the sources of novelty?
      • When do systems equilibrate?
      • Where do solutions differ
         from classical theory?
      • Are there stable regimes?
      • Punctuated equilibria?
     Human Social Dynamics
            Social Innovation

Promising directions: Institutional Innovation

 • Emergence & persistence of inequality
           •
 • Scale effects & tipping points
     Human Social Dynamics
             Social Innovation

Promising directions: Institutional Innovation

 • Emergence & persistence of inequality
           •
 • Scale effects & tipping points

 • Robustness of decisions in uncertain
       economic environments

 • Robust settlements of civil wars
         Human Social Dynamics
                   Social Innovation

  Promising directions: Organizational Innovation

• Dynamical models of transposition of networks:
      From banking to families to politics!
              •
         Human Social Dynamics
                    Social Innovation

  Promising directions: Organizational Innovation

• Dynamical models of transposition of networks:
      From banking to families to politics!
              •
• Impact of creation of multiple networks on new institutional forms
         Human Social Dynamics
                    Social Innovation

  Promising directions: Organizational Innovation

• Dynamical models of transposition of networks:
      From banking to families to politics!
              •
• Impact of creation of multiple networks on new institutional forms

• Coevolution of networks- from Medici Florence to Silicon Valley

• Regions of innovation
    Human Social Dynamics
     Emotions, cognition, learning

Past triumphs:

 • Computational models of learning in games
         •
 • Modeling of emotions & decision making
 • Homo reciprocans!
          Human Social Dynamics
           Emotions, cognition, learning

    Promising directions:

• Emotional basis for cooperation & punishment:
                 •
Integration of neural, behavioral & evolutionary approaches
          Human Social Dynamics
           Emotions, cognition, learning

    Promising directions:

• Emotional basis for cooperation & punishment:
                 •
  Integration of neural, behavioral & evolutionary approaches

• Linking human developmental neurobiology with
  behavioral analysis of social, emotional, cognitive processes
            Human Social Dynamics
             Emotions, cognition, learning

     Promising directions:

• Emotional basis for cooperation & punishment:
                 •
Integration of neural, behavioral & evolutionary approaches

• Linking human developmental neurobiology with
  behavioral analysis of social, emotional, cognitive processes

-> a better foundation for both education and medical interventions
    Human Social Dynamics
    Evolution of networks & exchange


Past triumphs:
      • Double auction tournament
      •Artificial stock markets
         •
      • Small world networks
    Human Social Dynamics
    Evolution of networks & exchange


Promising directions:
      • Network dynamics
      • Role of innovation
          •
      • Emergence of local hierarchies,
         trading regimes, cohesion
      • Integration with other programs
        (from food webs to emotions)
    Human Social Dynamics
          Sociocultural evolution


Past triumphs:
      • Evolution of prosocial behavior
      • Sugarscape
         •
      • Niche construction
      • Gene-culture coevolution
      • Anasazi, Mesa Verde, Bali
    Human Social Dynamics
              Sociocultural evolution


Promising directions :
      • Cycles of sociocultural development
       (origins of early states; models of collapse; world systems)
          •
    Human Social Dynamics
              Sociocultural evolution


Promising directions :
      • Cycles of sociocultural development
       (origins of early states; models of collapse; world systems)
          •

      • Human life course
       (synthesis of evol. biol. & economics;
      add temporal dimension to wealth transfer)
    Human Social Dynamics
              Political Violence


Promising directions:
      • Robustness of settlements of conflicts
      • Spatio-temporal patterns of political violence
          •
      • Models from epidemiology & punctuated equilibrium
      • Risk/gain internal models of participants
      • Proximity effects, path dependence, complex causation
    Human Social Dynamics
      Market evolution & Finance


Past triumphs:
      • Transcending General Equilibrium Theory:
         out-of-equilibrium analytic methods
          •
      • Adaptive agent models of markets
      • Critique of rational actor models
      • Taxonomies of money & exchange
      • Zero-intelligence agents
    Human Social Dynamics
      Market evolution & Finance


Promising directions:
      • Physics of markets:
       (Statistical mechanics of financial markets)
           •
        (incremental increases in agent intelligence )
        (Prediction of market behavior from aggregate
         order flows)
    Human Social Dynamics
      Market evolution & Finance


Promising directions:
      • Physics of markets:
       (Statistical mechanics of financial markets)
           •
        (incremental increases in agent intelligence )
        (Prediction of market behavior from aggregate
         order flows)

      • Evolution of profit-seeking behaviors
    Human Social Dynamics
     Gene-culture-language-society coevolution



Promising directions:
      • Integrative modeling of language & genetics

         •
      • Niche construction

      • Co-evolutionary processes
                                Human Social Dynamics
                                      Robustness


                    Niche constructionNi
~40% NPP appropriated by humans
(and rising!)
-C. Field, Science 294 (2001)
                                 •
                                Human Social Dynamics
                                          Robustness


                   Niche constructionNi

~40% NPP appropriated by humans
(and rising!)
-C. Field, Science 294 (2001)
                                  •
95% of lowland Borneo tropical
forests doomed
-L.Curran, Science, forthcoming
                                Human Social Dynamics
                                          Robustness

                        Niche constructionNi

~40% NPP appropriated by humans
(and rising!)
-C. Field, Science 294 (2001)
                                  •
95% of lowland Borneo tropical
forests doomed
-L.Curran, Science, forthcoming


Most coral reefs are in critical
condition
                                Human Social Dynamics
                                        Robustness

                     Niche constructionNi

~40% NPP appropriated by humans
(and rising!)
-C. Field, Science 294 (2001)
                                  •
95% of lowland Borneo tropical
forests doomed
-L.Curran, Science, forthcoming


Most coral reefs are in critical
condition
“Dead zones” spreading in coastal
marine ecologies
                                Human Social Dynamics
                                        Robustness

                     Niche constructionNi

~40% NPP appropriated by humans
                                               A new niche for
(and rising!)                                  SFI?
-C. Field, Science 294 (2001)
                                  •
95% of lowland Borneo tropical
forests doomed
-L.Curran, Science, forthcoming


Most coral reefs are in critical
condition
“Dead zones” spreading in coastal
marine ecologies
                                Human Social Dynamics
                                        Robustness

                     Niche constructionNi

~40% NPP appropriated by humans                A niche for SFI?
(and rising!)                                Earth systems modelers:E
-C. Field, Science 294 (2001)                         Oceans
                                  •                   Coastal
95% of lowland Borneo tropical                        Atmospheric
forests doomed                               Conservation biologists, ecologists
-L.Curran, Science, forthcoming              Resource & development economics

Most coral reefs are in critical
condition
“Dead zones” spreading in coastal
marine ecologies
Etc.- not much good news!
      Human Social Dynamics
              Overviews & syntheses



Lots of promising directions:
      • Equivalence classes of adaptive agent models
      • Statistical mechanics of agents & institutions
          •
      • Language as a bio-semiotic system
      • Scaling laws in social systems
      • Robustness of social & natural systems
      • Structure & evolution of social preferences
      • Institutional innovation & persistence
      • Fundamentals of market systems
      • Behavioral decision rules (emotions, learning)
      • Computational learning models
      • Unification of the behavioral sciences
      • Political Violence
                Human Social Dynamics
                        Overviews & syntheses



          Lots of promising directions:
                • Equivalence classes of adaptive agent models
But…            • Statistical mechanics of agents & institutions
how should we       •
                • Language as a bio-semiotic system
manage our      • Scaling laws in social systems
research        • Robustness of social & natural systems
portfolio?      • Structure & evolution of social preferences
                • Institutional innovation & persistence
Again, what’s   • Fundamentals of market systems
special about   • Behavioral decision rules (emotions, learning)
SFI?            • Computational learning models
                • Enhanced empirical/theoretical dialogue
                • Political violence
         Human Social Dynamics
                at the Santa Fe Institute

What makes SFI ~unique?
   • New Frontiers/share an office
         Human Social Dynamics
                at the Santa Fe Institute

What makes SFI ~unique?
   • New Frontiers/share an office
   • If ‘they’ can do that, why can’t we?!
         Human Social Dynamics
                at the Santa Fe Institute

What makes SFI ~unique?
   • New Frontiers/share an office
   • If ‘they’ can do that, why can’t we?!

   • Question-driven science
     Cross-disciplinary teams
         Human Social Dynamics
                at the Santa Fe Institute

What makes SFI ~unique?
   • New Frontiers/share an office
   • If ‘they’ can do that, why can’t we?!

   • Question-driven science
     Cross-disciplinary teams

   • Sharing of tools, methods, paradigms
     Human Social Dynamics
           Overviews & syntheses


  What makes SFI ~unique?

An example:
       •
NSF Biocomplexity mostly a failure…
      Human Social Dynamics
             Overviews & syntheses


  What makes SFI ~unique?

An example:
       •
NSF Biocomplexity mostly a failure…

It’s hard to create deep collaborations
crossing natural & social sciences
      Human Social Dynamics
             Overviews & syntheses


  What makes SFI ~unique?

An example:
       •
NSF Biocomplexity mostly a failure…

It’s hard to create deep collaborations
crossing natural & social sciences
 -But SFI does this very well!

				
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