dmb28122007 by cuiliqing


                                                                                                                                Daily Morning Brief

December 28, 2007                                                                                                                     FOR PRIVATE CIRCULATION

Equity                                                                   ECONOMY NEWS
                                               % Chg
                                                                         q Assocham has revised its earlier projection of 8.7% GDP growth in fiscal 2007-
                27 Dec 07           1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths
                                                                           08 to 9%. (BS)
Indian Indices
Sensex               20,217              0.1          6.7         16.9   q Decline in production of crude petroleum and petroleum refinery pulled down
Nifty                 6,082              0.2          8.3         21.1     the growth of six infrastructure industries to 4.5% in October from 9.9% in
Banking              11,370              0.7          9.4         20.1     the same month last year. (BS)
IT                       3,975         (0.7)          11.0         5.6
                                                                         q Supplies to non-processing area in SEZs will attract the unified goods and
Healthcare               4,288         (0.6)          12.0        13.3
FMCG                     2,253          0.9            5.6         4.3
                                                                           services tax once the tax regime is in place, from April 1 2010. (ET)
PSU                  10,116              0.9           6.4        23.3   q Mobile operators may have to pay higher yearly fees to the Government for
CNX Midcap            8,904              0.2          14.9        29.7     spectrum with the Communication Minister asking the Telecom Commission
World indices                                                              to review the annual spectrum charges being paid by service providers as
Nasdaq                2,677            (1.7)           0.5       (0.9)     license fee. (BS)
Nikkei               15,565            (0.6)           1.0       (8.8)
                                                                         q Sebi has proposed to clear mutual funds products on a fast-track basis. To
Hangseng             27,843            (1.0)           0.6        1.4
                                                                           begin with, fixed maturity plans with closed ended income schemes can be
                                                                           offered on a fast track basis. (BL)
Value traded (Rs cr)
                           27 Dec 07            % Chg - 1 Day
                                                                         q GSM mobile operators have virtually supported the spectrum review
Cash BSE                            7,537                          7.0
                                                                           committee's report and said its acceptance by the Government to allot
Cash NSE                           24,977                        59.2      airwaves was the 'best way forward' to resolve the logjam over spectrum. (ET)
Derivatives                        94,659                        (1.5)

Net inflows (Rs cr)
                                                                         CORPORATE            NEWS
                                                                         q ONGC Videsh has struck black gold in Arabian Gulf block off Qatar. The
                26 Dec 07           % Chg             MTD         YTD
                                                                           Najwat Najem block is the first overseas project executed by OVL wherein
FII                      2,421        1,346       2,014 69,070
                                                                           the company has both 100% ownership and is the sole operator. (ET)
Mutual Fund                743          (11)      1,861 5,498
                                                                         q DLF plans to raise $5 bn over the next three years by listing five of its
FII open interest (Rs cr)                                                  business units, including DLF Homes, DLF Retail, DLF Hotels, DLF Utilities and
                                    26 Dec 07                   % chg      DLF Infrastructure. There are no plans to further dilute equity in group
FII Index Futures                       20,812                  (14.1)     flagship DLF. (ET)
FII Index Options                        4,932                  (56.4)   q Reliance Communications has served a legal notice to DoT asking it to
FII Stock Futures                       49,220                   (7.0)     'freeze' the allocation of additional spectrum to existing GSM operators. (BS)
FII Stock Options                           26                  (80.0)
                                                                         q L&T has said it will invest around Rs.18 bn in the oil and gas and port sectors.
Advances/Declines (BSE)                                                    L&T is keen to acquire technological strength in deep water exploration for
                                                                           which it is entering into collaboration with foreign companies. (ET)
27 Dec 07            A        B1         B2      Total % Total
Advances          104        462        738     1,304               68   q NTPC has signed agreements for loan and bond subscription worth Rs.20 bn
Declines          114        268        199       581               30     with Life Insurance Corporation. The amount would be utilized to fund the
Unchanged           -          7         19        26                1     company's core business of power generation, besides financing coal mining
                                                                           and LNG business. (ET)
Commodity                                                                q Gail India has announced that it has signed an MoU with Oil India for joint
                                               % Chg                       cooperation in various business areas such as exploration and production,
                 27 Dec 07            1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths                   natural gas marketing and transmission, city gas distribution, coal bed
Crude (NYMEX) (US$/BBL) 97.0             0.4           7.0        18.7     methane, petrochemicals and technology and knowledge sharing. (BL)
Gold (US$/OZ) 825.6                      0.1           2.8        11.3
                                                                         q Parsvnath Developers has announced the launch of its premium
Silver (US$/OZ) 14.6                    (0.4)          1.8         6.6
                                                                           commercial project, Parsvnath Highway Mall, in the city of Rajpura in Punjab.
Debt/forex market
                                                                         q Bajaj Hindusthan has reported a net profit of Rs.456.5 bn for the year
                 27 Dec 07            1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths
                                                                           ended September 30 2007, against Rs.1.91 bn in the year-ago-period. During
10 yr G-Sec yield % 7.86                7.85       7.96           7.87
Re/US$             39.42               39.42      39.82          39.74
                                                                           the same period, BHL reported revenues of Rs.17.43 bn, as against Rs.14.87
                                                                           bn in the corresponding period of the previous year. (ET)
Sensex                                                                   q The Indian promoter of Gateway Distriparks, Delhi-based Prem Kishan
20,400                                                                     Gupta, is hiking his stake and taking management control of the Mumbai-
                                                                           based logistics company. (ET)

                                                                         q MindTree Consulting has said it has completed the process of acquiring
                                                                           TES PV Electronic Solutions Pvt Ltd on December 17. Consequently, TES has
                                                                           become a 100% subsidiary of the company. (BL)
       Dec-06   Feb-07    Apr-07    Jun-07   Aug-07    Oct-07   Dec-07

Source: Bloomberg                                                        Source: ET = Economic Times, BS = Business Standard, FE = Financial Express,
                                                                         BL = Business Line, ToI: Times of India, BSE = Bombay Stock Exchange

                                     Registered Office: Kotak S ecurities Limited, B akhtaw ar, 1st floor, 229 Nariman P oint, Mumbai 400021 India.
                                                                                                                                Please see the disclaimer on the last page
December 28, 2007                                                                 Kotak Securities - Private Client Research


Dipen Shah                       PRICE : RS.311                                             RECOMMENDATION : BUY
+91 22 66341376                  T ARGET PRICE : RS.354                                         FY09E PE : 14.9X

                                 We maintain BUY despite limited upside, pending potential
                                 n We spoke to the management of Infotech Enterprises to update ourselves on
                                   recent developments within the company and also gauge the impact, if any, of
                                   the US economic slowdown.
                                 n From our interactions, we have understood that the company has not been
                                   impacted in any way, till date, by US economic issues.
                                 n Tele Atlas, one of the major clients of the company, has been acquired recently
                                   by TomTom. The management has indicated that while there is no impact on
                                   existing contracts, new contracts are expected to be signed by TomTom.
                                 n We also expect the company to renew its contracts at a higher price with Pratt
                                   & Whitney when they come up for renewal.
                                 n We maintain our earnings estimates as of now and will review the same post
                                   the Q3FY08 results and the accompanying detailed management interaction.
                                 n The company is actively scouting for acquisitions and has already raised about
                                   Rs.3 bn for the same. The management expects to close these by the end of
                                   the fiscal. We believe these acquisitions, if any, may make us change our
                                   earnings estimates and recommendation on the stock.

          We maintain BUY on     n Infotech remains our favored midcap pick given the strong potential in its
   Infotech Enterprises with a     differentiated business verticals and the company's execution abilities. We
        price target of Rs.354     maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with an unchanged price target
                                   of Rs.354.
                                 n An accelerated slowdown/recession in major user economies and a sharper-
                                   than-expected appreciation in the rupee against major currencies are
                                   pronounced risks for most Indian IT services players, including Infotech.

                                 Main takeaways from our interaction with the management are:
                                 n As of now, Infotech does not have any significant exposure to companies in
                                   the BFSI segment. The company does not have any revenues coming from
                                   clients belonging to the US mortgage industry.
                                 n Thus, till date, there has been no direct or indirect impact of the turmoil in the
                                   US sub-prime mortgage market on Infotech.
                                 n However, in our opinion, the company may be impacted indirectly in terms of
                                   reduced work flow from clients impacted by the general economic conditions in
                                   developed countries.
                                 n We will wait for a more detailed interaction with the management post the
                                   Q3FY08 results, to make changes to our earnings estimates on the company, if

Daily Morning Brief          Please see the disclaimer on the last page                    For Private Circulation        2
December 28, 2007                                                                    Kotak Securities - Private Client Research

                          Tele Atlas acquired by TomTom - no impact expected
                          n Tele Atlas, one of the, major clients of the company (revenues of about $1 mn
                            per month) has been recently acquired by TomTom, a navigation device
                          n However, we understand from the management that the contracts with Tele
                            Atlas will be renewed without any changes in the scope. The company may be
                            able to get price increases in line with the increased costs of Infotech.
                          n Moreover, TomTom has approached Infotech to give further business to the

                          Offset opportunity
                          n Infotech has large clients in the aerospace vertical with clients like Boeing,
                            Bombardier and P&W.
                          n The offset clause imposed by the Government provides for outsourcing of
                            materials and services from India by foreign companies, which are awarded
                            contracts in various fields.
                          n In our opinion, this provides a big opportunity for companies like Infotech. The
                            company is already in dialogue with large players like Boeing, Lockheed Martin,
                            Rothschild, etc.

                          JV with HAL
                          n Infotech's 50: 50 JV with Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd is expected to target
                            engineering design services for aero engines, technical publications and the
                            offset program for aerospace sales.
                          n The JV expects to start generating revenues from Q4FY08 with significant
                            revenues coming in from Q1FY08. We have not assumed any upsides from the
                            JV in our projections.

                          Potential acquisitions
                          n Infotech has already announced its intention of acquiring companies in related
                            areas. The company has already raised about Rs.3 bn for this purpose.
                          n According to the management, it has short-listed companies in the automotive
                            space and should be able to complete the process by the end of the fiscal.

                          Future prospects
                          (Rs mn)                                   FY07    FY08E     YoY (%)            FY09E          YoY (%)
                          Income                                   5425.4   6599.5        21.6           8484.1             28.6
                          Expenditure                              4291.7   5398.2                       6975.7
                          EBDITA                                   1133.7   1201.2          6.0         1508.5             25.6
                          Depreciation                              256.0    344.7                         400.0
                          EBIT                                     877.7    856.5                       1108.5
                          Interest                                   13.9     33.0                          18.0
                          Other income                               66.8    198.7                         282.0
                          PBT                                      930.6    1022.2          9.9         1372.5             34.3
                          Tax                                       186.5    227.2                         315.7
                          PAT                                      744.1    795.1                       1056.8
                          Share of Profit                            92.5     81.7                          83.0
                          Adj PAT                                   836.6    876.8           4.8         1139.8             30.0
                          Shares (mns)                               46.2     54.5                          54.5
                          EPS (Rs)                                   18.1     16.1                         20.9
                          Margins (%)
                          EBDITA                                     20.9     18.2                          17.8
                          EBIT                                       16.2     13.0                          13.1
                          PAT                                        15.4     13.3                          13.4

                          Source : Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research

Daily Morning Brief   Please see the disclaimer on the last page                              For Private Circulation          3
December 28, 2007                                                        Kotak Securities - Private Client Research

                          n We maintain our earnings estimates.
                          n We believe the revenue growth will remain healthy in FY08 and FY09, led by
                            the EMI vertical.
                          n We have assumed the rupee will appreciate to Rs.38.50 per US dollar by FY09
                          n We believe there may be an impact on profitability in FY08 and FY09 due to:
                          n Expected rupee appreciation and
                          n Sustained investments in sales and support functions (mainly on recruitments).
                          n Consequently, we expect margins to settle at 17.8% in FY09, down from the
                            20.9% in FY07. Higher EMI contribution and cost rationalization initiatives are
                            expected to partly set off the impact of the above-mentioned factors.
                          n We expect profits to grow to Rs.1.14 bn in FY09, translating into an EPS of

                          n A sharp acceleration in the rupee from our assumed levels (Rs.38.5 by FY09
                            end) will impact earnings estimates for the company.
                          n A steep deceleration/recession in major global economies could impact revenue
                            growth of Indian vendors.

Daily Morning Brief   Please see the disclaimer on the last page                  For Private Circulation        4
December 28, 2007                                                                         Kotak Securities - Private Client Research

         Bulk deals       Trade details of bulk deals
                          Date        Scrip name           Name of client                         Buy/ Quantity                 Avg. Price
                                                                                                  Sell of shares                      (Rs)
                          27-Dec      Ansal Hsg Cn         CLSA Mauritius Ltd                     B             161,289            329.75
                          27-Dec      Asian Oilfie         Avinash C Manchanda                    S               46,960           302.50
                          27-Dec      Bihar Tubes          Mahesh Meetal                          B               45,000           200.00
                          27-Dec      C G Impex            Span Trade                             S               26,786             27.97
                          27-Dec      C G Impex            Navinchandra B Soni                    S               26,670            28.19
                          27-Dec      Camlin Fine          Surya Corporation                      S               24,250            81.76
                          27-Dec      Cat Technol          Basmati Securities Pvt Ltd             B             495,000             14.00
                          27-Dec      Cat Technol          Edelweiss Estates P Ltd                B             174,632             14.47
                          27-Dec      Ceekay Diaki         Shah Ketan Natwarlal                   B               25,000            94.68
                          27-Dec      Chan Guide I         Govind Engineering Works               S               70,000            23.93
                          27-Dec      Control Prin         Manish Rameshchandrashah               B               53,719            96.99
                          27-Dec      Dagger Forst         Pradeep Bhat                           S               51,910            50.02
                          27-Dec      Dhanustech           Rakesh Kantilal Mehta                  B             100,000            314.00
                          27-Dec      Dhanustech           Chitra Jitendra Mayekar                S             141,520            314.00
                          27-Dec      DMC Inter            Advance Securities                     B               20,000            31.90
                          27-Dec      DMC Inter            AJD Leasing and Fin Pvt Ltd            S               25,000            31.95
                          27-Dec      DMC Inter            Krishna Infomedia Ltd                  S               19,450            31.56
                          27-Dec      Dolat Inv Lt         Pankaj D Shah                          S           3,325,918             19.44
                          27-Dec      Era Constr I         Moneymatters Advisory Services         B             101,248            756.91
                          27-Dec      Esskay Telec         Ashwin Porwal                          B               37,634              3.14
                          27-Dec      Foundry Fuel         D K Agarwalla and Sons HUF             S               78,300            14.12
                          27-Dec      G V Films Lt         BNP Paribas Arbitage Gdr               S           2,614,033             10.80
                          27-Dec      Gagan Gase L         Arcadia Share and Stock Brokers        B               70,000              9.96
                          27-Dec      Geefcee Fina         Pilot Consultants Ltd                  B               54,247           451.00
                          27-Dec      Gemini Commu         Ayodhyapati Investment Pvt. Ltd.       B               88,433           258.70
                          27-Dec      Gemstone Inv         Bhavesh Prakash Pabari                 S               20,000            25.85
                          27-Dec      Gemstone Inv         Ankit Rajendra Sanchaniya              S               32,000            25.83
                          27-Dec      Golde Lamina         Haryana Financil Corporation           S             169,809             20.23
                          27-Dec      Gopala Polyp         Anurag Vithlani                        B             100,000             12.05
                          27-Dec      Gopala Polyp         Prasad Deshpande                       B             225,000             12.05
                          27-Dec      Gopala Polyp         Idbibank Long Term Port Folio          S             100,000             12.05
                          27-Dec      Gopala Polyp         JMP Securities Pvt. Ltd.               S             154,000             12.04
                          27-Dec      Gopala Polyp         IDBI Ltd                               S             100,000             12.05
                          27-Dec      Gremac Infra         Savitri Minerals Pvt Ltd               S             100,000            350.50
                          27-Dec      Guj St Fn Co         GSFC Staff Co Op Credit Soc            S             500,000             29.45
                          27-Dec      Gujara Nre C         Morgan Stanley Mauritious Co           S           1,850,000            121.39
                          27-Dec      IFL Prmoter          Nehal Dharmendra Kapadia               B               17,180            29.86
                          27-Dec      IFL Prmoter          Neeta Haren Shah                       B               18,000            29.63
                          27-Dec      IFL Prmoter          India Diversified Mau Ltd              S               28,268            30.03
                          27-Dec      IKF Financ L         Mercy Cyriac                           B               31,700            15.78
                          27-Dec      Inca Finleas         Maharashtra Overseas Ltd               B               19,500           120.60
                          27-Dec      Inca Finleas         Yash Management and Satellite          B               15,000           120.60
                          27-Dec      Indus Ind Bk         Hinduja Ventures Ltd                   B           1,700,000            130.50
                          27-Dec      Interf Fin S         Sharmistha Maheshbhai Shah             S             314,746               2.35
                          27-Dec      Jagson Airli         Adi Investment                         B               63,500            38.27
                          27-Dec      Jainco Pro I         Alka Upendra Doshi                     S               45,900              7.72
                          27-Dec      JCT Electron         JMP Securities Pvt Ltd                 B             189,201               9.43
                          27-Dec      Kallam Sping         Deepa P Pai                            S               48,000            24.02
                          27-Dec      Kilburn Offi         IDBI Ltd                               S               75,000            14.20
                          27-Dec      Kothari Ferm         Dheeraj Kumar                          S               39,876            29.43
                          27-Dec      Kovilp Lak R         K Mohan                                S               29,278            64.96
                          27-Dec      Lok Housi Co         DSP Ml Tr Co. P Ltd                    B             100,000            338.00

Daily Morning Brief   Please see the disclaimer on the last page                                      For Private Circulation           5
December 28, 2007                                                                         Kotak Securities - Private Client Research

                          Trade details of bulk deals
                          Date        Scrip name           Name of client                         Buy/ Quantity                 Avg. Price
                                                                                                  Sell of shares                      (Rs)
                          27-Dec      Moldtek Tech         Winstar Ind Inv Com Pvt Ltd            B             102,844            178.17
                          27-Dec      Novgol Petr          Krishan Lal Bansal                     S               31,574             9.78
                          27-Dec      Orchid Chem          Macquarie Bank Limited                 B           4,500,000            250.01
                          27-Dec      Orchid Chem          Gazal Industrial Holdings Limited      S           4,500,000            250.00
                          27-Dec      Pochiraju In         Latin Manharlal Sec Pvt Ltd            B               91,255            41.09
                          27-Dec      RPG Life Sci         Morgan Stanley Mauritious Co           S             133,827            104.60
                          27-Dec      Saamya Bio           Vishal Shah                            S             166,407             22.29
                          27-Dec      Sarda Enmin          Mavi Investment Fund Ltd               B               95,000           630.00
                          27-Dec      Sarda Enmin          Macquarie Bank Limited                 S               91,100           630.01
                          27-Dec      Shalibha Fin         Rohyl Consultancy Private Limited      S               25,000            29.15
                          27-Dec      Sujanatower          Live Star Marketing Pvt Ltd            B             278,107            202.66
                          27-Dec      Tantia Cons          Amrit Jyoti Tantia                     S               91,300           154.79
                          27-Dec      Upsurge Invs         Enca Finlease Ltd.                     B               50,000             17.29
                          27-Dec      Visu Intl            JMP Securities Pvt Ltd                 S             203,052             26.13
                          27-Dec      Vivimed Labs         Laxmi Investmens                       B               83,403           148.25
                          27-Dec      Vivimed Labs         Darashaw And Company Pvt Ltd           S               83,403           148.25
                          27-Dec      Wellwor Over         Rakno Dyes Pvt. Ltd.                   S           2,025,000               1.15
                          27-Dec      Yashraj Secr         Diamant Investment and Finance         B               94,197            30.50
                          27-Dec      Yashraj Secr         Obident Exports Pvt Ltd                S             126,093             30.60
                          27-Dec      Yashraj Secr         Diamant Investment and Finance         S             104,401             30.57
                          27-Dec      Zodiac Cloth         Notz Stucki Et Cie S A Ac Aruna        B             127,128            573.00
                          27-Dec      Zodiac Cloth         Merrill Lynch Capital Market
                                                           Espana S.A. Svb                        S             125,000            573.00

                          Source: BSE

Daily Morning Brief   Please see the disclaimer on the last page                                      For Private Circulation           6
December 28, 2007                                                                                                                           Kotak Securities - Private Client Research

    Gainers & Losers                                        Nifty Gainers & Losers
                                                                                             Price (Rs)                   % change                  Index points              Volume (mn)
                                                            ICICI Bank                               1,247                            2.3                           5.4                        2.2
                                                            National Aluminium                         481                            9.2                           4.6                        1.0
                                                            ONGC                                     1,248                            0.9                           4.0                       2.9
                                                            Bharti Airtel                              965                         (1.8)                         (6.0)                        3.9
                                                            Reliance Com                               730                         (1.8)                          (4.7)                       5.6
                                                            Reliance Pet                               219                         (2.0)                         (3.5)                       28.3

                                                            Source: Bloomberg

          Forthcoming                                       COMPANY/MARKET
             events                                         Date            Event
                                                            28-Dec          Kinetic Motor holds press conference on plans for Kinetic SYM; Transformers and Rectifiers
                                                                            hosts listing ceremony at NSE
                                                            31-Dec          eClerx Services listing on BSE & NSE

                                                            Source: Bloomberg

  Research Team
Name                                           Sector                                                                  Tel No                     E-mail id
Dipen Shah                                     IT, Media, Telecom                                                      +91   22   6634   1376
Sanjeev Zarbade                                Capital Goods, Engineering                                              +91   22   6634   1258
Teena Virmani                                  Construction, Cement, Mid Cap                                           +91   22   6634   1237
Awadhesh Garg                                  Pharmaceuticals                                                         +91   22   6634   1406
Apurva Doshi                                   Logistics, Textiles, Mid Cap                                            +91   22   6634   1366
Saurabh Gurnurkar                              IT, Media, Telecom                                                      +91   22   6634   1273
Saurabh Agrawal                                Metals, Mining                                                          +91   22   6634   1291
Saday Sinha                                    Banking, Economy                                                        +91   22   6634   1440
Rohit Ledwani                                  Retail                                                                  +91   22   6634   1507
Sarika Lohra                                   NBFCs                                                                   +91   22   6634   1480
Chetan Shet                                    FMCG, Power                                                             +91   22   6634   1382
Shrikant Chouhan                               Technical analyst                                                       +91   22   6634   1439
Kaustav Ray                                    Editor                                                                  +91   22   6634   1223
K. Kathirvelu                                  Production                                                              +91   22   6634   1557

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