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The Complete IDC Intelligence Solution Powered By Docstoc
					  IDC Technical Market
  Overview


www.idc.com/hpc
 IDC is Focused on IT


38 years of experience in IT market research
     Founded in 1964
700+ analysts worldwide
Quality primary research and methodologies
     More than 370,000 surveys/year
Only global/local IT research company
     50 offices in 42 countries
IDC Research Areas


                       Enterprise
                        Systems        Technical
          Global                         HPC
         Research
                                             Workstations
    Services
                                                   Software
   Internet
                                                    Channels

     Verticals
                                               Personal
                                               Systems

   Networking and                        Consumer and Small
 Telecommunications                           Business
                      Components and
                        Peripherals
Overview: The New Realities


Technical markets join the mainstream
       Scalable systems and leverage product strategies
       Hardware alone is becoming less important
Capability market transition
       Shake up in vendors and technologies
Bio-Sciences markets accelerate
       Major opportunities developing for IT suppliers
Clusters – Not Just for Breakfast Anymore
       Real interest in clusters appearing at all levels
       GRIDS are becoming mainstream for many sites
2002 vs. 2001 Highlights


 Overall -- Revenue down 7.2% to $4.7B
 Capability -- Revenue up 24.3%, to $1,003M
 Enterprise -- Revenue down 25.8%, to $785M
 Divisional -- Revenue down 27.0%, to $1.062B
 Departmental -- Revenue down 5.4%
      Still largest market segment at $1.850B


 High-end HPC -- Revenue down 4.1% to $1.8B
        High-end HPC = Capability + Enterprise
        Rest of market down – 9.0% to $2.9B
IDC’s Market Segmentation


Technical Capability
     Systems configured and purchased to solve the largest most
      demanding problems
Technical Enterprise
     Systems purchased to support technical applications in
      throughput environments selling for $1 million or more
Technical Divisional
     Systems purchased for throughput environments selling from
      $250,000 to $999,000
Technical Departmental
     Systems purchased for throughput environments selling for
      less than $250,000
WW Technical Computing Market

  $9,000
             Capability
  $8,000     Enterprise
             Divisional
  $7,000     Departmental
  $6,000

  $5,000
  $4,000

  $3,000
  $2,000

  $1,000
     $0
           1997    1998     1999   2000   2001   2002

    Overall -- Revenue down 7.2% to $4.7B (from $5.06B)
  2002 Industry/Application Segments:
  Percentage By Revenues

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
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   IDC Application Segment Definitions
1. Biological Sciences -- applications include genomics, proteomics, pharmaco-genomics,
   pharmaceutical research, bioinformatics, drug discovery, bio-analytic portals and ASP
   type service providers, agricultural research. Computational techniques range from data
   base searching and management to molecular modeling, to computational chemistry.
   These applications are used in commercial, academic and institutional research.
   System that are specifically targeted for these applications should be included, systems
   purchased for general scientific and R&D environments should be counted in the
   Science and R&D segment.
2. Chemical engineering applications include molecular modeling, computational
   chemistry, and chemical analysis. All chemistry applications that are not directly related
   to bio-sciences research and development. These applications are used in commercial,
   academic and institutional research.
3. Classified and Defense applications include surveillance and signal processing,
   encryption, C3I (command, control, communications and intelligence), defense
   research, and other national security applications.
4. Digital Content Creation (DCC) and Distribution applications include 2D and 3D
   animation, film and video editing and production, and multimedia authoring for both CD
   and web pages that utilize sophisticated graphics content. This category also includes
   servers used for image rendering, content management, and distribution of finished
   products. The increasing use of digital content in areas such as film, TV, commercial
   animation, advertising, product styling, and industrial design has expanded the market
   to include both low end systems and extremely high performance computers.
5. Economic and financial modeling includes both trader and non-trader tasks, such as
   econometric modeling, portfolio management, stock market and economic forecasting,
   and financial analysis.
   IDC Application Segment Definitions
6. Electronic design and engineering analysis covers all electrical/electronic tasks,
   including schematic capture, logic synthesis, circuit simulation, and PCB routing.
7. Geoscience and geo-engineering applications include earth resources-related work
   such as seismic analysis, oil services, atmospheric modeling, geo signal analysis, and
   various applications in meteorology industries. These applications are used both in
   institutional research and commercial enterprises. Geoscience and geo-engineering is
   also referred to as GIS, and includes components of mapping and image processing.
8. Imaging applications handle input from some type of camera, typically a video camera,
   and require specialized image preprocessors to prepare the image data for
   manipulation by a computer system. The medical and earth science industries have
   traditionally been the most common users of image technology, for such applications as
   body scanning, medical imaging, terrain modeling, and remote-sensed (LANDSAT or
   satellite-derived) data analysis.
9. Measurement and Control applications include measurement analysis, and the front
   end of automated test equipment (ATE). Like the simulation portion of the market,
   measurement and control typically requires real-time response.
10.Mechanical Design and Drafting includes design applications such as mechanical CAD;
   2D, 2-1/2D, and 3D design and drafting; 3D wireframe; and civil engineering design.
   Design and drafting applications require graphics capability, but are less compute-
   intensive than design engineering and analysis applications. CAD tasks are typically
   done by designers and drafters. Users are found primarily in discrete manufacturing
   industries such as automotive, aerospace, heavy machinery, and consumer goods.
   IDC Application Segment Definitions
11.Mechanical Design Engineering and Analysis are those tasks generally accomplished
  by engineers - not drafters. This segment of technical computing covers such analytical
  tasks as finite element modeling and analysis, mechanical CAE, civil engineering,
  structural analysis, computation fluid dynamics, and solid modeling. Like CAD
  applications, these CAE tasks are used to design automobiles, commercial aircraft,
  running shoes, ski equipment, sail boards, beer bottles, and other everyday items.
12.Other commercial applications are those that have not otherwise been classified; such
  as data analysis, office automation, WP, accounting, payroll, inventory, and customer
  service. This category is used to account for additional sales of workstations, and for
  special sales of servers from companies with a strong primary focus on technical
  markets. It is not intended to include commercial server sales by companies selling into
  a broad range of horizontal markets.
13.Scientific research and R&D applications are typically compute-intensive, and often
  require high-performance graphics. Programs can be exceedingly large and complex.
  These users are less bound by strict economic constraints than those performing
  applications in products environments. Therefore scientists and researchers are among
  the most CPU-hungry users in the technical computing market. Users are found in
  universities, national laboratories (such as Argonne and Lawrence Livermore), pure
  research institutions (such as MCC and MCNC), and for-profit corporations. They
  conduct basic and applied research in areas such as physics (including Nuclear),
  computational fluid dynamics, scientific visualization, thermodynamics, wind tunnel
  testing, laboratory data analysis, and scientific signal analysis.
   IDC Application Segment Definitions
14.Simulation applications include operator-in-the-loop simulators in such areas as:
  factory operations analysis and operator training, flight training, nautical training,
  nuclear plant analysis and operator training, robotic simulation, utility or power
  distribution analysis, and related training (computer-aided instruction (CAI)).
15.Software engineering users generally require less compute power than other technical
  users. These applications are typically performed by low-end and midrange systems,
  particularly low-cost technical workstations, and in some cases even PCs. Software
  engineering includes those tasks such as CASE, expert/knowledge systems, algorithmic
  research. Perhaps the most critical requirements for software developers is windowing
  capability. The need for high-end graphics capability is relatively low, since two
  dimensions are generally sufficient for the conceptualization and visualization of a logic
  system. However, the compilation and test of programs, can benefit from access to
  powerful networked compute resources to speed the overall development process.
16.Technical Management and support applications involve tracking, documenting and
  controlling the product life cycle chain, and the scientific research process. Such
  management and support is typically done by a file or data server on a network. Tasks
  include: product data management, maintenance records management and analysis,
  revision control, configuration management, network management, and project
  management.
17.Technical Other applications not otherwise specified by the above definitions.
  2002 Revenue Share By Technologies

  2002 By Processors
   Sparc            PA-RISC
    20%               18%


                        Alpha
                         14%
                                 2002 By Memory Architecture
Power
 23%
                    Intel
        MIPS Custom 13%                                  SM-xbar
                              SMP-Bus                     15%
         6%    6%               72%

                                                                   SMP-Bus
                                                        MP         SM-xbar
                                                         8%        MP
                                                      NUMA         NUMA
                                                    Other
                                                       2%          Other
                                                     3%
Technical Market Forecasts


 Our current forecast model demonstrates a
  reset pattern returning to year over year
  growth beginning in 2003
 Revenue Growth – 6.1% CAGR to 2007
    – Growth rates relative to the peak year of
      2000 are about 2.0% CAGR
   – Over $6.3 billion by 2007
   – Bio & Life Sciences over $2.6 Billion by 2007
 Unit Growth -- 11.8% CAGR
   – 108,450 shipments in 2007
Key Forecast Assumptions


 Economic recovery
    – HPC economies return to a growth mode
    – No major disruptions from terrorist events
 Biosciences major market driver
    – Bio-sciences revenue growth – 16.6%
    – Traditional HPC revenue growth – 1.4%
 HPC resiliency
    – Research and Development necessary for product cycles
    – Government spending is long terms expected to increase
    – Longer sales cycles
 Market Dampers
    – Price/Performance reset
    – Clusters provide a new sources of price competition
    – Grid model increase overall efficiencies
 A Few Next Generation Applications

Automotive
       Full fidelity crash
       Integration of design, engineering, manufacturing and test
       Full durability -- 150,000 miles, no failures
Pharmaceuticals
       Properties modeling
       Cell membrane modeling
Health Sciences -- Genome and:
       Physiological modeling
       Vascular simulation
       Virtual surgical planning
Chemicals
       Developing new biological compounds
       Process modeling
Petroleum
       Seismic and reservoir visualization
       Improved substrate modeling
       Forward analysis of oil-bearing structures
New Application Development Areas

             New Application Areas in 2003:
          48% Will Invest In Current Applications
14.0%
          11.5%
12.0%
10.0%
 8.0%
                               5.8%         5.8%
 6.0%
                                                             3.8%
 4.0%
                                                                           1.9%    1.9%        1.9%       1.9%
 2.0%
 0.0%




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    Worldwide Technical Market Forecast:
    Revenues ($,000)

10,000,000
                         Capability
 9,000,000               Enterprise
                         Divisional
 8,000,000               Departmental

 7,000,000

 6,000,000

 5,000,000

 4,000,000

 3,000,000

 2,000,000

 1,000,000

        0

             2001      2002   2003      2004   2005   2006    2007
                    The overall market will grow at a CAGR of 6.1%
                             to reach $6.3 Billion by 2007
Worldwide Technical Market Forecast:
System Shipments

120,000
                 Capability
100,000          Enterprise
                 Divisional
 80,000          Departmental


 60,000

 40,000

 20,000

     0
          2001     2002    2003   2004   2005   2006   2007
 Technical Cluster and Grid
 Market Overview



www.idc.com/hpc
Definitions: Clusters and Grids


A set of independent computers combined into a
unified system through systems software, and
networking technologies
    Independent components
    Standard interconnects

Clusters vs. Grids: Different ends of same spectrum
    Clusters:
       – Dedicate components -- All components are exclusively
         “owned” and managed as part of the cluster
    Grid:
       – Virtual system -- Configured from components that are
         generally managed and used both as part of the grid and
         as independent systems
  IDC Cluster Market Model Definitions

BRIGHT CLUSTERS
   Complete configurations offered by system’s suppliers
   The vendor is responsible for assembly, delivery and
    support of the cluster product
DIM CLUSTERS
   End-user assembly of individual systems sold as
    technical servers or workstations
DARK CLUSTERS
   End-user assembly of components purchased from a
    number of sources
INVISIBLE CLUSTERS
   Re-purposed clusters build from systems that were
    purchased for other reasons
   These systems do not add measurable market revenue
    Cluster Market Model Topology: View #1



                               Technical
                             Cluster Servers



   Bright           Dim              Dark              Invisible
  Clusters        Clusters          Clusters           Clusters



Traditional   End        New          End      End            Grid
 Vendors      Users      VARs         Users    Users        Intersect
View #2: An Alternative View Of Grids


            < - - - - - - - Grids - - - - - - - - >
                                             Other Devices:
                                             -- PCs
                                             -- Workstations
                                             -- Commercial Servers
                            HPC              -- Handhelds
                        Server Market        -- Instruments




     Traditional:       Clusters:        Other Servers:
     Servers            -- Bright        -- Proprietary
     -- SMPs            -- Dim           -- FPGA
     -- Vectors         -- Dark          -- Other Custom
                        -- Invisible
             2002 HPC Cluster Market Revenues: $1.6B



             $700
             $600
             $500
$ Millions




             $400
             $300
             $200
             $100
               $0
                     Bright       Dim         Dark
Market Drivers for Clusters

Absolute node level performance
        Moore’s Law at work
Price/Performance as throughput engines
        Single problem per node computing
        Maximizes management flexibility
Best solution for highly parallel applications
       Embarrassingly parallel problems
       Important enough to justify special system
Technology exploration phase
       Highly visible technology requires investigation
       Broader market is experimenting with clusters
       Potential for dramatic changes in market structure
Linux
       Breaks O/S binding to vendor
       Provides for greater sharing of software
  HPC Cluster Market Forecast by Source
  Segment: Revenues ($ Millions)

$3,000,000
                Dark
$2,500,000      Dim
                Bright
$2,000,000

$1,500,000

$1,000,000

 $500,000

       $0
             2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006
   HPC Cluster Market Forecast by Source
   Segment: System Shipments

35,000

30,000      Dark
            Dim
25,000      Bright
20,000

15,000

10,000

 5,000

    0
         2001        2002   2003   2004   2005   2006
 Operating System Trends
 And Observations



www.idc.com/hpc
         2002 HPC Server Market Revenues: $4.7B


             $4,000
             $3,500
             $3,000
$ Millions




             $2,500
             $2,000
             $1,500
             $1,000
              $500
                $0
                      UNIX   Linux   NT   Other
WW Technical Computing Market by OS

$9,000
$8,000      UNIX     Linux

$7,000      NT       Other

$6,000

$5,000
$4,000

$3,000
$2,000

$1,000
   $0
           1997    1998      1999   2000   2001    2002

         Overall -- Revenue down 7.2% to $4.7B (from $5.06B)
             2002 HPC Cluster Market Revenues: $1.7B


             $1,000.00
               $900.00
               $800.00
               $700.00
$ Millions




               $600.00
               $500.00
               $400.00
               $300.00
               $200.00
               $100.00
                 $0.00
                         Linux   UNIX   NT    Other
WW Technical Cluster Market by OS

$2,000
$1,800    Linux     Unix
$1,600    NT        Other
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
 $800
 $600
 $400
 $200
   $0
         1997     1998      1999   2000   2001   2002
 In Conclusion




www.idc.com/hpc
Major Market Trends

• Commodity processors & systems now dominate
        Custom processors & systems aren’t material in
         market size, but provide unique capabilities
        Hardware alone is becoming less important
• Capability market transition
        Shake up in vendors and technologies
•   Clusters and Linux now part of the mainstream
•   GRIDs and IA-64 are emerging technologies
•   Bio-Sciences and cluster markets accelerate
•   Long term growth is projected in all segments
        Short term economic situation is less clear
Questions?



Please email:
hpc@idc.com

Or check out:
www.idc.com/hpc
Goals of the hpc@idc User Forum

Assist HPC users in solving their ongoing computing
and business problems
   A forum for exchanging information, identifying
     areas of common interest, and developing unified
     positions on requirements
Provide members with a continual supply of information
on:
   Uses of high end computers, high end best
     practices, market dynamics, computer systems and
     tools, vendor activities and strategies
Provide members with a channel to present their
achievements and requirements to outside interested
parties
The Technical Agenda:
Initial HPC User Issue Areas

Better Metrics: “Sizing” Computers
    Sustained vs. Peak Performance
Develop a position paper on HPC architecture
  requirements
Learn What Other Users Are Doing
Collaboration Among Users
Leverage Technology
Leverage HPC Vendors
    And Academia
    And ISVs
Map Applications to Architectures
The Economics Of Supercomputing
Previous HPC User Forum Meetings

 •   October 1999: First planning meeting
 •   November 1999: User Forum public launch
 •   April 17, 2000: Second planning meeting
 •   July 24, 2000: Third planning meeting
 •   September 18 & 19, 2000: First full User Forum
     meeting, Richmond, Virginia
 •   April 11 & 12, 2001 Dearborn, Michigan
 •   April 23 & 24, 2002 in Santa Fe, New Mexico
 •   September 10 & 11, 2002 in Portland, Maine
 •   April 8 & 9, 2003 in Sundance, Utah
 •   May, 2003 in Bristol, UK and Annecy, France
 •   September 16 & 17, 2003 in Princeton, NJ
 •   October, 2003 in London and Paris
HPC User Forum Update

110 attended the last meeting in Princeton
   96 was the previous high point (Sundance)

Membership is now over 145
Check out the web site at:
   www.idc.com/hpc
Web Site
    IDC Balanced HPC Performance
    Rankings



www.idc.com/hpc
Why IDC Started This Activity

 HPC users and vendors listed it as their MOST pressing
 issue
   Impacting the health of the industry
      – And the quality of the products available
   Vendors felt that it was driving a number of major
    purchases in the US
      – “So why not just design cheap computers with very high
        processor peak numbers?”
   Users expressed that it impacted their ability to acquire
    the best computer
      – Without major questioning by upper management
 Users and Vendors asked IDC, because we are
 independent and have a history in HPC
Philosophical Notes – Our Approach

Using more metrics can provide a more balanced
picture
  A good single metric doesn’t currently exist
     – One with data on many configurations

There already exists many useful metrics
  … the problem can be solved

An adaptive and evolutionary approach
  Add better metrics as they become available

  Adding price, I/O and ease-of-use
Base Data Set
• Vendor Name                • System SPECfp _Rate _base2000
• Computer Model             • System SPECint _Rate _base2000
• Number of CPUs             • Single System Node Bandwidth
• Total/ Max. Memory         • System Wide Memory Bandwidth
• CPU Clock                  • STREAM TRIAD (Node)
• CPU Peak Gflop/s           • STREAM TRIAD (System)
• System Peak Gflop/s        • Number of CPUs
• # of Single System Nodes   • Total System Memory &
• US List Price ($M)           Interconnect Bandwidth
• FCS (Year)                 • Processor Capability Rating
• IDC Market Segment         • Memory Capability Rating
• One Computer or Cluster    • Scaling Capability Rating
• CPU Linpack Rmax           • Overall IDC Rating
• Total System Linpack       • Price/Performance
Example Balanced Rating List
                                                 Processor  Memory     Scaling
                                         Number Capability Capability Capability    Overall IDC
 Vendor     Model                        of CPUs Rating     Rating     Rating         Rating
                                            #      0 to 100   0 to 100   0 to 100     0 to 100
 NEC        Earth Simulator                5,120     11,867     99,328     10,240          40,478
 IBM        ASCI White,SP Power3           8192       9,354      3,149      2,099           4,867
 HP         LANL AlphaServerSC45 P-2       4,096      7,046      3,473      1,243           3,921
 HP         PSC AlphaServer SC45           3,016      5,270      2,557        915           2,914
 HP         CEA DAM AlphaSvr SC45          2,560      4,502      2,176        777           2,485
 SGI        ASCI Blue Mountain             6,144      4,509      1,230      1,368           2,369
 IBM        SP Power3 375 MHz 16 way       3328       3,800      1,279        759           1,946
 IBM        eServer pSeries p690 Turbo       928      2,887      1,657        508           1,684
 NEC        SX-6/192M24                      192        511      3,725        346           1,527
 HP         LANL AlphaServerSC45 P-1       1,536      2,779      1,302        466           1,516
 IBM        NERSC SP Power3 375 NH2        2,528      2,895        972        648           1,505
 IBM        eServer pSeries p690 Turbo       800      2,488      1,429        438           1,452
 IBM        eServer pSeries p690 Turbo       768      2,389      1,372        420           1,393
 IBM        eServer pSeries p690 Turbo       768      2,389      1,372        420           1,393
 Fuj itsu   VPP5000/100                      100        317      3,413        404           1,378
 NEC        SX-5/128M8                       128        397      3,356        282           1,345
 IBM        eServer pSeries p690 Turbo       704      2,190      1,257        385           1,277
 Intel      ASCI Red                       9,632        793      1,027      1,926           1,249
 IBM        eServer pSeries p690             512      1,350      1,524        253           1,042
 NEC        SX-6/128M16                      128        341      2,483        230           1,018
Example List – Price/Performance
                                         Number of      Overall IDC        Price/
      Vendor   Model                       CPUs           Rating        Performance
                                            #             0 to 100       List/ IDC Rate
      HP       rx2600 @900MHz                       2               3                 4.6
      NEC      Earth Simulator                  5,120          40,478                 4.9
      HP       rx2600 @1GHz                         2               4                 5.8
      HP       i2000 (Itanium)@733                  1               1                 9.1
      HP       J6000 (PA-8600)                      2               2                12.0
      HP       RX4610 (Itanium)@733                 4               3                12.3
      HP       i2000 (Itanium)@800                  2               1                13.0
      HP       RX4610 (Itanium)@733                 2               2                13.8
      SGI      Origin 300 500                     128              98                14.6
      SGI      Origin 300 600                       8               6                15.1
      HP       J6700 (PA-8700)                      2               2                15.2
      SGI      Origin 300 500                       8               5                16.8
      HP       RX4610 (Itanium)@800                 4               4                17.4
      HP       L3000 (PA-8600)                      4               3                17.7
      SGI      Origin 300 600                      32              23                18.0
      SGI      Origin 300 600                     128              94                18.1
      SGI      Origin 300 600                      64              47                18.2
      HP       RX4610 (Itanium)@800                 2               2                18.4
      HP       rp5470 (PA-8700)@650MHz              4               4                18.8
      SGI      Origin 300 600                      16              12                19.3
      HP       L3000 (PA-8600)                      2               2                19.4
      HP       rp5470 (PA-8700)@650MHz              2               2                19.8
      SGI      Origin 300 500                      64              40                20.1
      SGI      Origin 300 500                     384             233                20.2
 In Summary:
 Why Worry About HPC Metrics?

HPC Users and vendors identified it as one of their
top issues
  The range in prices as a ratio to peak
  performance is over eight times
     – Indicating a need for a better metric for
       comparing computers
  Price as a ratio to peak performance is
  becoming less meaningful each year
     – Yet it is broadly used (and abused)
     – LINPACK closely tracks peak
Balanced Ratings Conclusion


Despite the strategic and economic importance of
supercomputers, or HPC systems, there have been no
generally available databases or tools for analyzing
these complex technologies along multiple dimensions
User organizations need a source of common system
specification data, and top-level tools for sorting through
various aspects of the technologies to better understand
and explain how different technologies match their
requirements
The IDC Balanced Rating provides one such top-level
analysis and ranking

				
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