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					Smart Climatology: Methods and Products
                   Tom Murphree, Ph.D.
             Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)




 Brief Presented at Air Force Weather Technology Transition Summit
                      AFWA, 6-7 September 2006
                                                 Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Co-Authors
   •   Tom Murphree, NPS
   •   Mark LaJoie, Maj, USAF
   •   Adam Stepanek, Capt, USAF
   •   Damon Vorhees, Capt, USAF
   •   Joel Feldmeier, LT, USN
   •   Bruce Ford (USN retired), Clear Science, Inc.
   •   Karl Pfeiffer, Lt Col, USAF
   •   Chuck Wash, NPS
   •   Chris Hanson, Capt, USAF
   •   Sarah Moss, 1st Lt, USAF

In Coordination and Collaboration with:
   •   Air Force Combat Climatology Center
   •   Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Detachment
   •   Naval Research Laboratory
   •   Civilian climate research & operational climatology organizations




                                                   Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Problems and Causes
1. DoD lacks state-of-the-art climatological support.

2. Typical development of military climo products excludes many
   modern methods of climate analysis and forecasting.

3. Military climatology products often fail to account for recent
   advances in climate:
   a. data sets
   b. analysis and reanalysis
   c. downscaling
   d. modeling
   e. monitoring
   f. forecasting




                                                   Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Shortfalls in Existing Climatology Products
Heavy Precipitation and Flooding, Afghanistan & Pakistan, 1-15 Feb 2005
                   Aerial View                             Precip Rate Anomaly, 1-15Feb05



                                                                       Precip Fig




                                                                                                    mm/d

   Precip, temp, snowmelt, and runoff anomalies had large impacts on DoD
    operations.
   Almost no DoD climo products available to explain, monitor, or forecast
    these anomalies or operational impacts.

From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF; 2006.
Advisors: T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer.                         Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Proposed Solutions
1. Smart climatology  State-of-the-art basic and applied climatology
   that directly supports DoD operations

2. Long term smart climatology program to:
   a. Educate AFW and Navy METOC personnel on smart climo
   b. Develop smart climo methods
      --- including adaptation of civilian sector methods
   a. Develop smart climo products
   b. Transition methods and products to operational use


          NPS is conducting a smart climatology program
                    to help meet these needs.




                                                Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Benefits of Smart Climatology
1. Climatology contributes to weather analysis and forecasting:
   a. Climatology forecasts of weather
   b. Model ICs, BCs, and parameterizations
   c. Ensemble forecast assessment
   d. Model selection
   e. Regime-based analysis and forecasting
   f. TDAs
   e. FRNs
   f. Forecast skill assessments
   g. Uncertainty assessment and risk management

2. So, expect smart climatology products to:
   a. improve analysis and forecasting of both climate and weather
   b. benefit combatant commanders at all planning levels
       --- strategic, operational, and tactical




                                                Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Goals of NPS Smart Climatology Program
1. Implement smart climo educational program.

2. Develop research products for use in developing operational
   products.

3. Develop prototype operational products.

3. Transition products to DoD operational centers.




                                                Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Smart Climatology - Methods and Products
1.   Implement Educational Program
     Two smart climo courses, both with strong emphasis on basic science,
     operational climo, and military applications

2.   Develop Research Products
     a. Analysis and forecast systems for assessing regional impacts of climate
        variations: El Nino, La Nina, Madden-Julian Oscillation, Indian Ocean
        Zonal Mode, North Atlantic Oscillation
     b. Focus regions:
        SWA, HOA, east Asia, North Pacific (western, tropical,
        northeastern), North America

3.   Develop Prototype Operational Products
     a. Smart climo process for use by forecasters
     b. Regional narratives based on climate variations
     c. Operational impacts assessments
     d. In progress:
        1. climate indices for SWA
        2. statistical climate forecasts for SWA
        3. web-based delivery with updated climate monitoring

4.   Transition Products to DoD Operational Centers.
                                                       Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Smart Climatology – Research Products
     Mechanisms that Lead to Above Normal Precip and Temp in SWA

 Above Normal
Precip and Temp

                                        L                               Below Normal
                                                           H         Tropical Convection




 Typical low level anomaly pattern during above normal precip and temp in
  SWA.
 Caused by climate variations and teleconnections (specific phases of El
  Nino/La Nina, Indian Ocean Zonal Mode, Madden-Julian Oscillation, and/or
  North Atlantic Oscillation).
 Climate variation reversal  opposite anomalies in SWA.
 Climate variations predictable  SWA precip and temp predictable
 In progress: Climate monitoring indices and forecasting systems based on
  climate variation analyses.
From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF, 2006.
Advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer.            Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Smart Climatology – Research Products
                             Impacts of Multiple Climate Variations
                                   Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Only

                                                                               Anomalous Z 200
                                                                               and long wave
                                                                               patterns, MJO
                                                                               Phase 3, Oct-Mar



     MJO + El Nino                                                                MJO + La Nina




          Climate variations alter tropical and extratropical long wave patterns,
           which in turn alter synoptic activity
          Simultaneous climate variations interfere with each other.
          Major interference over regions of DoD interest (SWA, East Asia, CONUS).
          Multivariate analysis and forecasting required.

From NPS thesis research by Capt A. Stepanek, USAF,
2006. Advisors: T. Murphree and C. Wash.                            Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Smart Climatology – Prototype Operational Products

                                     Camp Lemonier


                 U.S. Embassy




http://maps.google.com/                                           http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/united_states.html
“Noncombatant evacuation operations (NEOs) are conducted to assist the Department of State (DOS) in evacuating
noncombatants, nonessential military personnel, selected host-nation citizens, and third country nationals whose lives
are in danger from locations in a host foreign nation to an appropriate safe haven and/or the United States. NEOs
usually involve swift insertions of a force, temporary occupation of an objective, and a planned withdrawal upon
completion of the mission.” JP3-07.5, “Joint Tactics, Techniques and Procedures for Noncombatant Evacuation
Operations”
Scenario/Assumptions: Intel estimates indicate that the potential exists for a military coup in Ethiopia, which would
necessitate the rapid evacuation of 150+ embassy personnel, plus an equal number of U.S. civilian expatriates
(students, businesspeople). The USCENTCOM METOC (USAF O3) is tasked to develop a climatological assessment for
a possible NEO during the Oct-Nov timeframe. A NEO CONPLAN is in development. The O3 recently read an NPS
thesis discussing climate variations and military impacts in the HOA, and decides to use it as a guide for the
assessment.
• Intermediate Staging Base (ISB)/Safe Haven: Camp Lemonier, Djibouti, alternate USN ship.
• Forces: MH53 Pave Lows, C130, RQ1-B Predator UAVs plus tankers & ground operations support



From NPS thesis research by Maj M. LaJoie, USAF, 2006.
Advisors: T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer.                                   Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Smart Climatology – Prototype Operational Products
                                                              Horn of Africa (Oct - Nov) NEO
 Intelligence, Surveillance
 and Reconnaissance                     Typical Climate                                     Tendency
 (ISR)
                                      (Long Term Mean)               Strong El Nino (EN)             Strong La Nina (LN)

  UAV (RQ1B Predator)                          1,2                              1,2                             4

  Overhead Collections                         1,2                               4                            2,4,6

Typical: October–November is the “short rains” season in the Horn of Africa, characterized by extensive cloud decks, showers
and isolated, afternoon thunderstorms. For typical years in the Addis Ababa area, moderate impacts to collections and RQ1B
operations are assessed in October and early November, improving to mostly favorable after the mid-November end of the
rainy season. RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier are assessed as favorable overall, with occasional
impacts from afternoon crosswinds and extreme afternoon temperatures exceeding operational thresholds.

El Nino: A strong El Nino event would tend to increase showers, cloud cover and thunderstorm activity in October-November.
ISR impacts will tend to worse than in the typical year. Assessment for ISR is moderate to occasionally unfavorable.
Assessment of RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier remains the same as in typical years.

La Nina: A strong La Nina event would tend to suppress showers, cloud cover and thunderstorm activity during Oct-Nov. ISR
impacts will tend to general improvement over typical years. Assessment for ISR is the same as for the typical year, but expect
thunderstorm and shower frequency to decrease. Assessment of RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier
remains the same as in typical years.
                                                              Legend
                        1.   Cloud cover      2. Precipitation     3. Winds           4. Temperature

         Favorable                        Moderate                       Unfavorable                      No Change
From NPS thesis research by Maj M. LaJoie, USAF, 2006.
Advisors: T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer.                                          Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Smart Climatology – Prototype Operational Products
                                            SWA Operational Impacts Forecasts
   Operation                 Impacts Based on Normal                             Impacts Tendency
                                (Long Term Means)                             Based on Climo Forecast
         EO                CIG        Abs                Moon                 CIG    Abs              Moon
   (Electro-optics)
                           CLR-       Hum                 N/A                        Hum               N/A
   Over Target area        SCT

   Helicopter              CIG        Vis     X-winds     Icing        Turb   CIG     Vis     X-      Icing    Turb
    (Attack)              >3000’     >3sm     <25 kts     LGT-         LGT-                  winds
   AH-64 - Kandahar                                       MDT          MDT


   Helicopter              CIG        Vis     X-winds     Icing        Turb   CIG     Vis     X-      Icing    Turb
    (Airlift)             >3000’     >3sm     <25 kts     LGT-         LGT-                  winds
                                                          MDT          MDT
   UH-60 - Kandahar



   Sample prototype product developed by students for NPS climo course
    project on development and use of climo forecasts.
   Impacts assessments based on climo forecasts complicated by uncertainties
    in climate forecasts and translation of forecasts to impacts.
Thresholds based on AFWA/TN-98/002 Revised 13 June 2003.
Red = worse than normal, white = normal, green = better than normal.            Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Smart Climatology – Forecaster Process


Process for
generating smart
climatology
products for military
customers.

Details and
applications in NPS
thesis by Maj. Mark
LaJoie, USAF (2006).




From NPS thesis research by Maj M. LaJoie, USAF, 2006.
Advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer.      Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Smart Climatology – Product Development & Applications
              Assess normal                          Identify climate
             conditions (LTMs)                          variations


              Create state-of-the-art climo analyses and forecasts
              based on blend of normal conditions and variations


                                              Translate analyses and forecasts to
                                                      operational impacts


                               Provide on-demand
                              access via SIPR/NIPR


          Provide tailored input to            Provide climo input to improve
        improve long range planning         weather analysis and forecasting tools


                         Support combatant commander
                           decision making (all levels)

  Many elements already exist in basic form, but smart climo components are missing.
  Planned but not shown: verification processes and user feedback.
                                                             Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Partners in Smart Climo Education, Research, & Development
1. NPS Faculty
   a. Climatology education (intro and advanced courses)
   b. R&D expertise
   c. Develop collaborations, obtain funding
   d. Provide long term program leadership

2. NPS Students
   a. Operational experience
   b. Course projects
   c. Thesis research
   d. Labor costs (already covered)
   e. Future operational partners

3. Operational Partners
   a. Operational requirements and capabilities
   b. Partners in identifying problems and potential solutions
   c. Sources of data and R&D expertise
   d. Transitioning partners
   e. Test beds and feedback
                                                Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
NPS Smart Climatology Reports




 Reports available to view and download at: http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/
                                                          Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Contact Information

      Tom Murphree, Ph.D.
      Department of Meteorology
      Naval Postgraduate School
      254 Root Hall, 589 Dyer Road
      Monterey, CA 93943-5114
      831-656-2723 commercial
      756-2723 DSN
      831-656-3061 fax
      murphree@nps.edu
      jtmurphr@nps.navy.smil.mil
      http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/
      http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/metrics/metrics_reports.html




                                             Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Back-Up and Background Discussion Slides




                                    Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
                                                    Overview
                                          NPS Smart Climatology Program
                                               Tom Murphree, Ph.D.
    The typical process of developing military climatology products relies heavily on traditional methods of climate
analysis, and excludes many modern methods of climate analysis and forecasting. This means that very few military
climatology products account for climate variations (e.g., El Nino, Madden-Julian Oscillation), or for the many
advances over the last 30 years in climate data sets, monitoring, analysis, modeling, and forecasting. Thus, Air Force
Weather and Naval METOC units, and the combatant commanders they serve, lack state-of-the-art climatological
support.

    To address this shortcoming, we are conducting a long term program to develop, adapt, and transition to
operational use systems for developing state-of-the-art military climatology, also known as smart climatology. Our
goal is to assist in closing the gap between (a) present climatological support for military operations and (b) the
support that is achievable through the application of modern methods of climate analysis and forecasting. Because of
the wide application of climatology in the development of both climate and weather products, we expect smart
climatology products to benefit combatant commanders at all planning levels (strategic, operational, and tactical).

    The primary goals of our smart climatology program are to: (1) develop scientific products for use in developing
operational products; (2) develop operational planning products based on the scientific products; and (3) deliver
scientific and operational products via a web-based (net-centric) platform. Our primary scientific products are
analyses of the regional atmospheric and oceanic impacts of climate variations (e.g., El Nino, La Nina, Madden-Julian
Oscillation, Indian Ocean Zonal Mode, North Atlantic Oscillation). The focus regions for our work thus far are
southwest Asia (SWA), the Horn of Africa, east Asia, the western tropical North Pacific, the northeast Pacific, and North
America. Our main operational products are prototype assessments of operational impacts derived from: (a) our
climate analyses; and (b) applying a set of forecaster guidelines that we have developed for providing smart
climatology support. We have recently begun a climate forecasting effort based on our climate analyses for SWA and
using composite analysis methods. We are currently developing web-based methods of product delivery.

   Our program is based on a collaboration of Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) faculty and staff, Air Force and Navy
students at NPS, and climate research and development contractors. We are also coordinating and collaborating in
our smart climatology efforts with the Air Force Combat Climatology Center, Fleet Numerical Meteorology and
Oceanography Detachment Asheville, and civilian colleagues in climate research and operational climatology. Reports
on our program are available at: http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/reports.php For more information on the NPS
Smart Climatology Program, please contact the program director, Dr. Tom Murphree at: murphree@nps.edu
                                                                                         Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Definitions

Traditional Climatology
Climatology that focuses on long term means, especially the description
of long term mean (LTM) seasonal cycles. Traditional climatology deals
little, or not at all, with variations from the long term.

Modern Climatology
Climatology that addresses LTM patterns and climate variation patterns,
with a focus on describing both the patterns and the processes that
drive those patterns. The study of climate processes includes the
development and application of methods for monitoring, modeling, and
forecasting the climate system. Examples of climate variations: El Nino
La Nina-Southern Oscillation, Madden-Julian Oscillation, North Atlantic
Oscillation.




                                           Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Traditional Climatology Versus Modern Climatology

The reliance on LTMs to describe the climate system means that
traditional climatology is unable to account for climate variations that
can significantly alter the state of the climate system and impact
deployment planning and combat operations (e.g., weapons selection,
force positioning, and operational planning).

The focus on patterns rather than processes means that traditional
climatology contributes relatively little to the dynamical understanding
of LTM patterns, or to the analysis and forecasting of climate variations.

Thus modern climatology provides a more comprehensive view of the
climate system and is much better suited than traditional climatology for
supporting combatant commanders.




                                             Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Climatology in Support of Combatant Commanders

Problem
DoD climatology products are based almost exclusively on traditional
climatology. This means combatant commanders have far fewer useful
climo products than are available in the civilian sector or that could be
readily adapted for DoD use.

Approach to Solving Problem
Adapt and apply modern, or smart, climo methods and products for use
by combatant commanders (e.g., adapt and apply climate analysis and
forecasting methods and products used in civilian sector).




                                             Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Smart Climatology = Modern Climatology
Smart Climatology
  Climatology that includes LTMs but also accounts for:
  a. higher order statistics than the LTM
  b. modern developments in climate science and operational
       climatology

By this definition, smart climatology could also be called modern
climatology.

Modern climatology is an apt term, since DoD climatology is way behind
the times.

Civilian climatology is far more advanced than military climatology, in
terms of:
   1. climate science
   2. development and application of operational climatology methods
       and products

This lag in DoD climatology has created significant gaps in
climatological support for war fighters.
                                            Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Statement of Problem
Warfighters are not getting the full benefit of proven operational
climatological data and methods because:
1. DoD climatology is behind the times.
2. Long term mean climatology is not sufficient for DoD planning and
    operations.
3. Information is often not: (a) up to date; and/or (b) available at
    sufficient spatial / temporal resolution for area or period of interest.
4. A lot of very relevant climo information, methods, and products are
    not yet readily available to METOC personnel or their customers.
         a. not yet adapted for military use
         b. no central, easily accessible source
5. It is difficult to translate climo information into environmental
    impacts on operations, and such translations are rarely provided in
    off-the-shelf climo products.
6. METOC units must interpret available climo information to fit their
    individual needs.
         a. too time consuming and labor intensive
         b. much of this tailoring would be more efficient and
              effective if done by experts at a central location
         c. units’ time is better spent tailoring smart climo to the needs
             of combatant commanders             Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Needed: Smart Climatology Capabilities
1. Need environmental data from multiple sources that are physically
   consistent and up-to-date (e.g., latest observations and forecasts available
   for inclusion in climo products).

2. Need higher spatial and temporal resolution. Most climo products,
   especially ocean products, have poor or marginal resolutions.

3. Need a web based, readily accessible, interactive system for analyzing,
   displaying, and down loading climo information for the global environment.
   System needs extensive user functions (e.g., analysis functions for
   compositing, differencing, correlating; display functions for generating
   time series, layering data, GIS output).

4. Need to be able to readily account for climate variations and climate
   forecasts (e.g., El Nino / La Nina, North Atlantic Oscillation, Madden-Julian
   Oscillation, etc.). Presently, almost all DoD climo support is based on just
   LTMs.

5.   Need to feed smart climo to models that currently use only traditional
     climatology (e.g., LTMs as initial or expected extreme conditions).

6.   Need system for objectively assessing climatological risks and
     opportunities for war fighters.             Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
NPS Smart Climatology Products
The following slides show examples of the types of products that are being,
and could be, generated using smart climatology methods.

These examples include:
a. Scientific products for METOC personnel to use in developing operational
   climo products
b. Operational planning products based on the scientific products

These sample products were developed by:
a. NPS students as part of the NPS climatology courses
b. NPS students as part of their thesis research
c. NPS faculty

DoD needs to develop smart climo products with the breadth, depth, and
formats appropriate for METOC personnel and the combatant commander they
support (e.g., products for NSW and ASW operations in key regions).

Additional examples of our smart climo work can be found at:
    http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/reports.php
Contact me for examples of classified smart climatology products that
we’ve developed at NPS, and for updates on our on-going work on climate
monitoring and forecasting for southwest Asia.
                                                Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Impacts of Climate Variations on Tropical Cyclone Activity:
East Asia and Western North Pacific, October           Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06


                               H
                 L                           L

                                      H



                           L               H
             H

                                             L



Upper tropospheric height anomalies associated with El
Nino (EN) and La Nina (LN) periods. These height
anomalies indicate anomalies in steering flow for tropical
cyclones (TCs)., with more recurving TCs during EN and       by EN and LN climate variations that are not accounted for
more straight runners during LN. This indicates that, for    in LTM climatologies. Figures from Ford, B., 2000. El Nino
example, Taiwan (Korea) is more likely to be hit by TCs      and La Nina Events, and Tropical Cyclones: Impacts and
during LN (EN) years. NPS researchers have shown that        Mechanisms. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval
TC formation sites, tracks, and intensities are affected     Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree.
Impacts of Climate Variations on Joint Operations:
Straits of Taiwan, October
       Operation/Mission                   El Nino Periods                  La Nina Periods
 Air Operations                      Improved ceilings                *Increased Cloudiness
                                     Decreased Turbulence             Increased Turbulence
                                     Decreased Convection             Increased Convection
 Trafficablility                     Improved surface                 *Degraded surface
                                     troop/supply movement            troop/supply movement
                                     due to less precipitation        due to more precipitation
 Intelligence, Surveillance,         Increased ISR capability         *Diminished capabilities
 Reconnaissance                      due to decreased                 due to increased cloud
                                     cloudiness and convection        cover and convection

 NBC Defense                         Less favorable due to            More favorable due to
                                     increased stability and          decreased stability and
                                     decreased precipitation          increased precipitation
 Naval Ops                           More favorable sea               Less favorable sea
                                     basing/safe haven due to         basing/safe haven due to
                                     typhoon recurvature              westerly typhoon tracks

Green = favorable for indicated operations / mission
Yellow = marginal for indicated operation / mission
*Conditions slightly improved for NE Taiwan due to decreased monsoonal flow.
 Slide from NPS climatology course                               Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Use of Ocean Reanalysis to Develop Smart Climo Products:
Western North Pacific, Winter
            Upper Ocean Currents, Nov-Mar, Long Term Mean




                                                                       15 cm/s


         Note LTM poleward coastal currents along China, Taiwan,
                             Japan, Korea.


   From Ford and Murphree (2006)
                                              Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Use of Ocean Reanalysis to Develop Smart Climo Products:
Western North Pacific, Winter
     Upper Ocean Current Anomalies, Nov-Mar, During -SOI Periods




                                                                         6 cm/s


           Note substantial strengthening with respect to LTM of
            coastal currents along China, Taiwan, Japan, Korea.
       Note: -SOI periods  El Nino periods
   From Ford and Murphree (2006)
                                                Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Use of Ocean Reanalysis to Develop Smart Climo Products:
Arabian Gulf, Winter
             Upper Ocean Currents, Nov-Mar, Long Term Mean




               Note LTM inflow in Arabian Gulf, Gulf Of Oman.

                                                             1 cm/s
   From Ford and Murphree (2006)                  Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Use of Ocean Reanalysis to Develop Smart Climo Products:
Arabian Gulf, Winter
      Upper Ocean Current Anomalies, Nov-Mar, During +SOI Periods




               Note reversal of LTM inflow in Gulf Of Oman.

   Note: +SOI periods  La Nina periods                      3 cm/s
   From Ford and Murphree (2006)                 Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
                                        c
                                                                a
                                                                                    Currents




                                            Current
                                                                                    Model EN




                                            Anomaly
                                            Model EN
                                                                                                       California Current System, Winter




                                        d
                                                                b




Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
                                                                                                       Use of Ocean Modeling to Develop Smart Climo Products:




                                            Current
                                                                                     Currents
                                                                                     Model LN




                                            Anomaly
                                            Model LN




                    Figures from: Feldmeier, J., 2005. Climatic Variations of the California Current System:
                    Application of Smart Climatology to the Coastal Ocean. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval
                    Postgraduate School, September 2005. Advisors: Profs. T. Murphree and R. Tokmakian.
Use of Downscaled Mesoscale Climo Products in
Mission Planning Process
Scenario: In the event of
   heightened tensions with North
   Korea, a squadron of F-15s
   from Elmendorf AFB, AK will
   need to deploy on short notice
   to Gwangju AB, ROK. Their
   refueling aircraft will be a pair
   of KC-10s from Travis AFB, CA.
   The expected launch window is
   July. The fighters will have to
   refuel 7 times en route and
   must avoid areas of solid cloud
   and moderate or greater
   turbulence.
Task: Provide climatological
   support for mission planning.




Slide from NPS climatology course       Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Use of Downscaled Mesoscale Climo Products in            Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

                                                        Slide from NPS climatology course
Mission Planning Process
Climatological Impacts on F-15 Squadron Deployment Over North Pacific in July
• Launch / Divert Bases
    – Thunderstorms, lightning, low ceilings likely at Elmendorf AFB
    – Fog/stratus along coast likely to inhibit morning tanker take-offs
      from Travis AFB, CA, diverts on US west coast
• Air Refueling
    – Clouds likely to impede refueling along storm track
    – Winds much weaker at flight level, thus decreasing turbulence risk




                                               Mean Percent Total Cloud Cover From
                                               RTNEPH, July LTM, Base Period 1984-
                                               2001. Image sources: AF Combat
                                               Climatology Center:
                                               https://notus2.afccc.af.mil/scis/
Use of Downscaled Mesoscale Climo Products in                                           Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Mission Planning Process                                                                Slide from NPS climatology course


Climatological Impacts on ISR Operations Over Korean Peninsula in July
Operation          METOC Criteria                          Climatological Features and Processes to Monitor
                   Cloud cover & visibility restrictions   - July cloudiest, wettest month with significant fog
ISR                - Influences sensor load-outs           - LTM cloud-cover products
- High Recce       - Launch/recovery hampered              - Moist flow over peninsula demonstrated in moisture
  -- U2                                                      products
  -- Global Hawk                                           - High specific humidity, RH, pwat, surface precip rate, etc.
  -- Satellite                                             - Persistent cloudiness inferred by low OLR values
     Collections
                   Winds                                   - Jet weakened, but convective activity now problematic
                   - Decreased loiter…fuel                 - Vector wind means & isotachs illustrate jets & low-level
- TacRecce
                     consumption                             winds
  -- Predator
                   - Turbulence
                   - Launch/recovery (cross, out of
                     limits)
                   Thunderstorm Hazards                    - Increased moisture and temperatures favorable for
                   - Problems in flight &                    convective activity
                    launch/recovery                        - Low OLR indicative of increased precip
                   Tropical cyclones                       - LTM contributions possibly reflected in moisture products
                   - Still observe effects even if TC      - High specific humidity, RH, pwat, surface precip rate, etc.
                     does not make landfall on ROK
                   High temperatures                       - High temperatures evident in low level temp fields
                   - Mechanical issues
                   - Limits to pilot endurance
Key climatological factors for Korea in July (see accompanying maps of SLP, Z850, chi, OLR,
clouds, and precipitation):
1. Low level low over China, high over North Pacific                          Reference for METOC Criteria : JP 3-59.
                                                                              Joint Doctrine, Tactics, Techniques, and
2. Warm moist inflow from the south along boundary between low and high Procedure for Meteorological and
                                                                                             Oceanographic Support. 23 Mar. 1999.
Use of Intraseasonal Climate Anomalies and                                 Manas IAP
Forecasts in Mission Planning Process




                                                                                        Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06 Slide from NPS climatology course
           Incirlik AB
                                                                   Bagram AB
                                             Herat
                                                              Kandahar




                                                                                                                                                                  Map courtesy of the AFCCC Strategic Climatic Information Service
                                                     AR ‘B’




Scenario: Operation Thanksgiving Pain
Mission: Provide climo support for night
time aerial operations to destroy large
terrorist training camp in Afghanistan.
Missions will launch from bases in Turkey,
Diego Garcia, and Afghanistan.
Launch Window: 19-28 Nov 2004
                                                                         Diego Garcia
Lead time: One month
                                 Operation Thanksgiving Pain Climo Impacts
  Operation                                Typical (LTM)                    Anomaly Tendency
                                                                            Red = Worse than normal, White = no
                                                                            change, & Green = Better than Normal

ISR                              CIG        Vis   X-winds   Icing    Turb   CIG     Vis     X-      Icing   Turb
(Intelligence, Surveillance,    >2000’      >3s    <10kt    MDT      MDT                   winds
Reconnaissance)                              m
Predator – Bagram

CAP                              CIG        Vis   X-winds   Icing    Turb   CIG     Vis     X-      Icing   Turb
(Combat Air Patrol)             >3000’      >3s   <25 kts   MDT      MDT                   winds
F15 – Manas                                  m



Interdiction                     CIG        Vis   X-winds    Icing   Turb   CIG     Vis     X-      Icing   Turb
B-52 – Diego Garcia             >3000’      >3s    <15kts   <=MDT    LGT                   winds
                                             m

CAS                            CIG>3000’    Vis   X-winds   Icing    Turb   CIG     Vis     X-      Icing   Turb
(Close Air Support)                         >3s    <30kts   MDT      MDT                   winds
A-10 & AC-130 – Bagram                       m


AR      (Air Refueling)        CIG>1000’    Vis   X-winds   Icing    Turb   CIG     Vis     X-      Icing   Turb
KC-135 – Incirlik                           >2s    <15kts    LGT     LGT                   winds
                                             m
Slide from NPS climatology course
Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06                Thresholds based on AFWA/TN-98/002 Revised 13 June 2003
                           Operation Thanksgiving Pain Climo Impacts
  Operation                         Typical (LTM)                       Anomaly Tendency
                                                                        Red = Worse than normal, White = no
                                                                        change, & Green = Better than Normal

EO                          CIG         Abs              Moon           CIG    Abs             Moon
(Electro-optics)          CLR-SCT       Hum               N/A                  Hum              N/A
Over Target area

Helicopter               CIG >3000’      Vis     X-      Icing   Turb   CIG    Vis      X-      Icing   Turb
                                               winds                                   winds
(Attack)                                >3sm
                                               <25 kts
                                                         LGT-
                                                         MDT
                                                                 LGT-
                                                                 MDT
AH-64 - Kandahar


Helicopter               CIG >3000’      Vis     X-      Icing   Turb   CIG    Vis      X-      Icing   Turb
                                        >3sm   winds     LGT-    LGT-                  winds
(Airlift)                                      <25 kts   MDT     MDT
UH-60 - Kandahar




Slide from NPS climatology course
Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06          Thresholds based on AFWA/TN-98/002 Revised 13 June 2003
Use of Intraseasonal Climate Anomalies and                                               Manas IAP

Forecasts in Mission Planning Process                                                    c v x

               c v x                                                            c v x




                                                                                                     Slide from NPS climatology course
               Incirlik AB                                                      Bagram AB
                                                                   Herat
                                                                           Kandahar

                                                                           c v x


- More southerly storm track will result in
possible takeoff delays for tankers leaving
Incirlik
- Tankers leaving Incirlik will see increased
turbulence over Iraq and the northern Persian                   AR ‘B’




                                                                                                     Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Gulf
- Manas can expect increased precipitation
- Bagram will see increased frequency of low
ceilings and low visibility as well as crosswinds
that may hinder Predator ops
- Visibility for helos out of Kandahar will
potentially be adversely affected by low clouds
enroute; result: potential mission cancellation

 c Ceiling                       No expected enroute weather impacts
                                 Expected enroute weather impacts to
 v Visibility                    airframe may require mission rescheduling
                                                                                       c v x
 x Crosswinds                    Enroute weather impacts exceed allowed               Diego Garcia
                                 criteria; reschedule mission
Responding to Combatant Commander Needs:
Intraseasonal-Interannual Climate Anomalies and Forecasts
     Heavy Precipitation and Flooding, Afghanistan and Pakistan, 1-15 February 2005

                                           •   Precipitation, temperature, snowmelt, and runoff
                                               anomalies had large impacts on DoD operations. Led to
                                               combatant commanders requesting climate predictions
                                               for SWA.
                                           •   Occurred during strong, persistent subsidence phase of
                                               Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the eastern IO.
                                           •   Investigated role of MJO and other climate variations in
                                               producing SWA climate anomalies.




              Precip Fig
                                                      Winds, Moist Adv




 From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF;
 2006; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer.               Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Smart Climatology Analysis
Heavy Precipitation and Flooding, Afghanistan & Pakistan, 1-15 Feb 2005
              Wind and Specific Humidity Anomalies, 850 hPa, 1-15Feb05




                                                                                           R-K
                                                                                        response,
                                                                                          moist
                                         H                                             onshore flow

                                                                                         low
                                                                                      convection




   Precip, temp, and other anomalies in SWA caused by anomalously onshore
    flow from south, and warm, moisture air advection.
   Wind and advection anomalies caused by Rossby-Kelvin wave response to
    low convection over maritime continent due to MJO.
From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF; 2006.
Advisors: T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer.                        Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Smart Climatology Analysis
                   Wind & Specific Humidity Anomalies at 850 hPa
                  When MJO Convective Component is in Eastern IO




                                                  Convection




        • Note offshore wind and low moisture anomalies over and near SWA.
        • Opposite anomalies when convective component is in eastern IO.

  From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF;
  2006; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer.    Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Smart Climatology Analysis
          Precipitation and Surface Temperature Anomalies When
   Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Convective Component is in Eastern IO




   • Due to circulation anomalies shown in prior slide, SWA tends to be drier
     and cooler than normal.
   • Result of cool, dry continental air advected from Asia.
   • Opposite anomalies when convective component is in eastern IO.
  From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF;
  2006; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer.   Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Smart Climo and Regime Based Forecasting

  Smart climo gives you a better insight into the large scale (continental scale
  to global scale) patterns and processes that, to a large extent, govern the
  development of the regimes. Climate dynamics governs the uppermost
  portion of the forecast funnel. So, you can do a better job of analyzing and
  forecasting synoptic and mesoscale circulations when you understand the
  low frequency, large scale dynamics that are the subject of climate
  dynamics. For example, when you understand the tropical climate variations
  that excite changes in the extratropical Rossby wave field, that in turn lead to
  changes in extratropical long wave patterns, that then alter synoptic and
  mesoscale circulations and regimes.

  A smart climo approach could contribute a fair bit to improving regime based
  forecasting methods. Many climate variations have well established regimes
  of their own (often described in terms of teleconnections patterns and
  processes) that climate-oriented weather forecasters already use in
  developing medium range forecasts. NWS extended range forecast
  discussions based on EN, LN, and MJO are one example of this. Many
  climate variations have known tendencies to make certain medium range and
  synoptic patterns more or less likely (e.g., tendencies to develop high zonal
  index flows, blocking patterns, persistent warm moist advection, etc.).

                                                    Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Smart Climo and Regime Based Forecasting
  The mechanisms by which climate variations set up these patterns is often
  an alteration of the upper tropospheric long wave pattern (shifts in location,
  changes in wave length and amplitude, etc.), changes in the low level
  eddies and circulation (e.g., Siberian High, Aleutian Low, Azores High), and
  associated low level WAA, CAA, moisture advection, moisture
  convergence, etc. The Stepanek and Vorhee's theses provide some nice
  tropical and extratropical examples of this. The connection between
  synoptic and climate processes is also a two-way street (e.g., EN affects
  the intensity and recurvature of tropical cyclones in the NW Pac, which
  leads to anomalies in the extratropical long wave pattern over the N
  America, which alters synoptic systems there).




                                                    Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Smart Climo and Regime Based Forecasting

  There are a variety of smart climo based tools that could be used to improve
  how regime concepts are used in forecasting. Compositing and principal
  components could be used to identify the major regime signals associated
  with climate variations (including their relative amplitudes and
  phasing). Here, by regime signal, I mean the regimes that are forced by and
  characteristic of a given climate variations, and the fluctuations of regimes
  that are separate from but affected by the climate variations. By climate
  variation, I'm thinking of phenomena such as EN, LN, IOZM, MJO, NAO, but
  also of simpler, more generic variations such as changes in the zonal
  index of the extratropical upper tropospheric flow.

  Cluster analysis could be used to identify the most probable sequencing of
  the major regime signals (see Jeff's discussion of solutions A, B, and C,
  below). A variety of other tools could be used to identify the relationships
  between a given regime and a larger scale variation, and the predictability of
  the regime given the existence of the variation.




                                                    Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
NPS Course Description
                                                             Copies of course materials
                                                             available on request
Modern Climatology, MR 3610
Quarter Units: 4
Instructor: Prof. Tom Murphree

Introductory investigation of Earth’s climate system. Long term mean temporal and
spatial patterns, and seasonal cycles at global, regional, and local scales, with an
emphasis on areas of DoD interest. Dynamic and thermodynamic processes that
govern the climate system (e.g., atmosphere-ocean-land interactions, large scale, low
frequency waves, teleconnections). Intraseasonal to decadal climate variations (e.g.,
anomalous temperature, pressure, and precipitation patterns; Madden-Julian
Oscillation; El Nino/La Nina/Southern Oscillation; North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic
Oscillation). Impacts of climate variations on weather systems, and the role of
climatology in weather analysis and forecasting. Introduction to the use of climatology
in planning and conducting military operations with case studies from regions of DoD
interest. Some aspects of this course may require that students have a secret
clearance. The course focuses on the atmospheric component of the climate system,
but also addresses the oceanic component at some length. The oceanic and/or land
components will be addressed in greater depth if there is sufficient student interest.
Pre-requisites: MR 3321 and 3222 (or equivalent courses form another university), a
more advanced course (e.g., MR 3234, MR 3252), or consent of instructor.




                                                            Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
NPS Course Description
                                                              Copies of course materials
                                                              available on request
Advanced Climatology, MR 4250
Quarter Units: 3
Instructor: Prof. Tom Murphree

This course addresses advanced topics in operational climatology and military applications
of climatology. The topics may vary with each offering, especially in response to student
interests. Topics include: (1) statistical, dynamical, and numerical modeling methods used
in operational climate analysis and forecasting; (2) advanced analyses of regional and local
climate patterns and processes in areas of DoD interest; (3) strategic implications of long
term global climate change; (4) role of climatology in strategic to tactical level planning of
military operations; (5) assessments of NOAA, Air Force, and Navy climatology methods
and products; (6) evaluation of joint military climatology planning tools; and (7) student
development of climatology products and planning tools based on civilian and military
methods and products. For fall 2006, one of the main topics will be Southwest Asia
climate, especially climatological patterns and processes, interactions between weather
and climate phenomena, and climate predictions, in particular, predictions for military
operations. This course places a strong emphasis on the applications of climate science to
military operations. Some aspects of this course may require that students have a secret
clearance. The course focuses on the atmospheric component of the climate system, but
also addresses the oceanic component at some length. The oceanic and/or land
components will be addressed in greater depth if there is sufficient student interest. Pre-
requisites: MR 3321 and 3222 (or equivalent courses form another university), a more
advanced course (e.g., MR 3234, MR 3252), or consent of instructor. Students are also
strongly encouraged, but are not required, to take MR 3610 before MR 4250.
                                                              Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06
Guest Presentations on Military Climatology in
NPS Climatology Courses (MR 3610 and MR 4250)

  Military Applications of Smart Climatology
                                                          Copies of briefs
           Col D. Smarsh, USAF
                                                          available on request
  Climatology in Joint Operational Planning
          Capt J. Hernandez and Capt D. Wunder, USAF

  Smart Climatology in Support of Naval War Fighters
          LCDR B. Ford, USN

  Operational Climatology in the U.S. Air Force
          Capt J. Jarry, USAF

  Operational Typhoon Climatology for Western North Pacific Air Bases
          Capt K. Burton, USAF

  Operational Climatology in OIF
          Capt Chris Weaver, USAF

  Development of Smart Climatology Briefs for DoD Planning
         Maj Karen Darnell and Maj Mark LaJoie, USAF
                                                   Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

				
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