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					                                                               futurefocus@dti

               Materials IGT Workshop – Drivers for Change
                              26th April 2005

Objective:
To identify global issues that will have a major impact on the materials
producing, processing and using industry in the UK, over the next 10-20 years.




                                    Agenda
1330 - 1335   Introduction to workshop and its objectives

1335 – 1350   Film ‘Change Drivers’ and discussion

1350 – 1420   What are the future global issues? How large will their impact be on
              the UK materials industry?
              • Brainstorm ideas
              • Categorise according to impact on materials industry

1420 – 1450   What is the potential impact of each of these issues?
              Consider the questions:
              • What part of the Materials industry will be affected?
              • How will it be affected?
              Group work
              Focus on the high priority issues

1450 – 1510   What is the timeframe of these issues?
              Consider the questions:
              • Will this be an issue in 5 years? In 10 years? In 20 years?
              • Will its impact be larger or smaller in 10 years time?
              Group work
              Continue with high priority issues from previous section

1510 – 1540   Group feedback and discussion

1540 – 1545   Wrap up and close




                                         1                  Facilitator: Jane Galsworthy
                                                               futurefocus@dti

Change Drivers Film – Discussion Points
   •   The human needs of the rich and poor are different – the latter are driven by
       fulfilling basic human needs, for the former these needs are masked by
       technology
   •   There are lots of connections across the world
   •   Very different cultures – particular differences between East and West
   •   Religious and cultural effects
   •   Is technology beneficial?
   •   Importance of value systems


What are the future global issues?
Brainstorm of ideas

1. Ageing population and social independence
2. Climate change
3. The gulf between rich and poor
4. Elimination of poverty
5. Oil shortage
6. Environment
7. Sustainable development
8. Ageing Population - healthcare
9. Cost reduction
10. Climate change
11. Outsourcing
12. Recycling
13. Global warming
14. Rich states demands of the poor
15. Waste
16. Tribalism
17. Ageing people
18. Terrorism
19. Recyclability
20. Environment
21. Distribution of wealth
22. Waste recycling
23. The desire to dominate
24. Running out of resources
25. Technology diversity across countries
26. Pace of technological development. Growing expectations of consumers
    combined with declining margins.
27. Value systems
28. Health care
29. Electricity shortage
30. Technology transfer to developing countries
31. Lower energy cost
32. Rich versus poor markets
33. Environment
34. The dependence on cheap energy
35. Social equity
36. Ageing society
37. Novel transport
38. Technology can be bad - cosmetic surgery
39. Availability
                                         2                  Facilitator: Jane Galsworthy
                                                                  futurefocus@dti

40. Oil price
41. New sources of energy
42. Higher performance demands
43. Power shortage
44. Quest towards zero waste in all industrial processes
45. Growth of new economies such as China, India etc.
46. Strains between religions
47. CO2 emissions
48. Harsher working environments
49. Unstable world
50. Consumerism versus ecology
51. Cheap transport
52. Pollution
53. Sustainability
54. Shortage of raw materials
55. China
56. Domination by few superpowers
57. Disease - AIDS etc
58. Need for environmentally benign products, materials and processes
59. Nanotechnology
60. Gulf between rich and poor
61. Scarce resources/raw materials
62. China and its growth
63. Basic resources
64. Eastern developments
65. Labour costs
66. The interconnectedness of everything
67. Poverty in parts of the world
68. Short development time and product lifetime
69. Personal transportation
70. Recyclability
71. Shortage of natural resources
72. Adaptability
73. Raw materials
74. Communications
75. Water shortage
76. Global warming allegedly
77. Renewable energy unreliable source of power
78. Religious divides
79. Increased role of regulation, including EU regulation, trade barriers etc.
80. Lack of confidence in technology
81. Protection of intellectual assets
82. Recyclability of products
83. Nuclear threat
84. Efficient use of materials
85. Paying for an older age
86. What people need as opposed to what they want
87. Political prioritisation
88. Speed of response
89. Over-dependency on ICT
90. Disparate legal frameworks
91. Third world wanting cheap technology
92. Increased cost of labour
93. Rich states demands of poor states
94. Language and currency
95. Economic stability of essential raw materials
                                           3                  Facilitator: Jane Galsworthy
                                                                  futurefocus@dti

96. Energy for production
97. Offset trading
98. Gap between technology have and have nots
99. Growing disregard for Intellectual Property rights, particularly in new economies
100. Intellectual property rights
101. Health aids
102. Globalisation and its effect on UK plc
103. Meeting the needs of an ageing society
104. Availability of energy for all
105. Health risks from using certain materials
106. Material availability
107. Global sourcing
108. Shortage of key elements
109. Need for renewable energies
110. Technology transfers
111. Reuse of materials
112. Recyclability
113. Migration
114. Pressures on infrastructure
115. Elimination of crime
116. Low cost housing
117. Energy reduction to minimize wasteful energy consumption
118. Development funding
119. Need for standards in new materials
120. Energy efficiency
121. Availability of skills
122. Use of non-food crops for fibre
123. Global companies
124. Increasing sophisticated demand by consumers
125. Sustainable and reliable energy supply
126. Innovation - speed of
127. Greed more than need
128. Demand for more sports
129. Winners and losers
130. Availability of energy
131. Changing Defence allies
132. Lack of understanding of science and technology in general public - grey goo
      effect
133. Engaging the policymaker
134. Nuclear power
135. Shortage of skills
136. Meeting the needs of aging society
137. Protection of IPR
138. Trade barriers
139. Do we need to travel as much as we do?
140. Lack of habitable space in developed countries
141. Increased dominance of services and IT. Who will make the hardware?
142. Consumerism
143. Longevity
144. Work life balance
145. Disrespect for authority
146. Regulations define direction of technology development
147. External factors over which there is no corporate control: global politics; global
      economies and the global environment
148. Protectionism in powerful China
149. Increased lifespan
                                            4                 Facilitator: Jane Galsworthy
                                                             futurefocus@dti

150. Luxury homes at everyday prices
151. Price pressures through more sophisticated consumers
152. Ethical trading
153. Youth vs. age
154. Poor public perception of materials
155. Cost pressure lowers qualities
156. Availability of skills
157. Sustainability of manufacturing facilities
158. China vs. USA power struggle
159. Length of life
160. Prevention of crime
161. Poor public perception of materials


These issues were grouped according to their current and future impact upon the UK
Materials Industry

High Impact Issues
1. New sources of energy
2. Climate change
3. Environment
4. Sustainable development
5. Cost reduction
6. Recycling
7. Global warming
8. Global companies
9. Waste
10. Recyclability
11. Waste recycling
12. Sustainable and reliable energy supply
13. Running out of resources
14. Efficient use of materials
15. CO2 emissions
16. Innovation - speed of
17. Pace of technological development. Growing expectations of consumers with
    declining margins.
18. What people need as opposed to what they want
19. Availability of energy, including:
    • power shortage
    • oil shortage
    • electricity shortage
20. Lower energy cost
21. The dependence on cheap energy
22. Speed of response
23. Novel transport
24. Oil price
25. Cheap transport
26. Engaging the policymaker
27. Third world wanting cheap technology
28. Nuclear power
29. Pollution
30. Meeting the needs of aging society including:
        Paying for an older age
31. Protection of IPR
32. Sustainability
                                        5                 Facilitator: Jane Galsworthy
                                                                 futurefocus@dti

33. Rich states demands of poor states
34. Economic stability of essential raw materials including:
        Shortage of raw materials
35. Energy for production
36. Disease - AIDS etc
37. Longevity
38. Gap between technology have and have nots
39. Nanotechnology
40. Growing disregard for Intellectual Property rights, particularly in new economies
41. Intellectual property rights
42. Scarce resources/raw materials
43. Basic resources
44. Health aids
45. Globalisation and its effect on UK plc
46. External factors over which there is no corporate control: global politics; global
    economies and the global environment
47. Reuse of materials
48. Recyclability
49. Protectionism in powerful China
50. Increased lifespan
51. Meeting the needs of an ageing society
52. Short development time and product lifetime
53. Availability of energy for all
54. Health risks from using certain materials
55. Personal transportation
56. Material availability
57. Shortage of key elements
58. Need for renewable energies
59. Recyclability
60. Shortage of natural resources
61. Youth vs. age
62. Poor public perception of materials
63. Raw materials
64. Technology transfers
65. Availability of skills
66. Low cost housing
67. Poor public perception of materials
68. Energy reduction to minimize wasteful energy consumption
69. Global warming allegedly
70. Sustainability of manufacturing facilities
71. China vs. USA power struggle
72. Length of life
73. Energy efficiency
74. Increased role of regulation, including EU regulation, trade barriers etc.
75. Lack of confidence in technology




                                           6                  Facilitator: Jane Galsworthy
                                                             futurefocus@dti

Medium Impact Issues
1. Climate change
2. Higher performance demands
3. Availability of skills
4. Quest towards zero waste in all industrial processes
5. Ageing Population - healthcare
6. Protection of intellectual assets
7. Ageing people
8. Climate change
9. Growth of new economies such as China, India etc.
10. Nuclear threat
11. Technology diversity across countries
12. Health care
13. Harsher working environments
14. Technology transfer to developing countries
15. Political prioritisation
16. Aging society
17. Changing Defence allies
18. Disparate legal frameworks
19. Shortage of skills
20. China
21. Domination by few superpowers
22. Offset trading
23. Consumerism
24. Need for environmentally benign products, materials and processes
25. Work life balance
26. Regulations define direction of technology development
27. China and its growth
28. Eastern developments
29. Global sourcing
30. Migration
31. Adaptability
32. Cost pressure lowers qualities
33. Pressures on infrastructure
34. Elimination of crime
35. Prevention of crime


Low Impact Issues
1. The gulf between rich and poor
2. Elimination of poverty
3. Use of non-food crops for fibre
4. Rich states demands of the poor
5. Distribution of wealth
6. Strains between religions
7. Increasing sophisticated demand by consumers
8. Greed more than need
9. Demand for more sports
10. Unstable world
11. Rich versus poor markets
12. Social equity
13. Over-dependency on ICT
14. Consumerism versus ecology


                                        7                 Facilitator: Jane Galsworthy
                                                                futurefocus@dti

15. Lack of understanding of science and technology in general public - grey goo
    effect
16. Increased cost of labour
17. Trade barriers
18. Language and currency
19. Increased dominance of services and IT. Who will make the hardware?
20. Gulf between rich and poor
21. Labour costs
22. The interconnectedness of everything
23. Poverty in parts of the world
24. Price pressures through more sophisticated consumers
25. Ethical trading
26. Communications
27. Renewable energy unreliable source of power
28. Religious divides


Other
1. Outsourcing
2. Tribalism
3. Terrorism
4. The desire to dominate
5. Value systems
6. Winners and losers
7. Technology can be bad - cosmetic surgery
8. Availability
9. Do we need to travel as much as we do?
10. Lack of habitable space in developed countries
11. Disrespect for authority
12. Luxury homes at everyday prices
13. Water shortage
14. Development funding
15. Need for standards in new materials

From the high impact issues, 9 key themes were identified:
   • Energy
   • Climate Change
   • Ageing Population – Demographics
   • Recycling and recyclability
   • Global Politics
   • Availability and cost of resources
   • Public perception
   • Skills
   • IPR and Technology Translation




                                         8                   Facilitator: Jane Galsworthy
                                                                 futurefocus@dti

Groups discussed nature of the impact these issues?

1. Energy
       What part of the Materials Industry will be affected?
          • All parts of the materials industry will be affected ????
          • Particularly manufacturers of batteries, fuels cells, power stations,
             transport systems, domestic appliances, and.....
          • Energy transportation!!!

       How will it be affected?
         • We consume energy in the manufacture of materials
         • We make materials that enable the more efficient production of energy
         • We make materials that enable the more efficient use of energy
         • More effective use of energy is driven by cost and environmental
             pressures and political pressures
         • The need to use less energy will mandate for new processes or the
             use of new materials for the same end-use

       What is the timeframe of these issues?
         • The debate about timescale has been going on for at least 30 years.
              Whether technological innovation can overcome the availability of
              energy is still uncertain - and therefore the timescale over which this
              becomes a major problem is uncertain
         • How dependable is renewable energy?
         • In 10 years, there will probably not be much change in primary
              generation - even if we started now, many alternatives would not be
              functional and making a return on their energy and cash investment
         • Secondary generation might see changes - hybrid vehicles, miniature
              fuel cells (for mobile phones) solar cells, limited wind power, batteries
         • Insulation and more effective use will also be making a difference
         • A focus on cost reduction may be the immediate driver for change in
              use - driven by the increasing cost of energy
         • In 20 years Robert says nuclear will be here
                  o ... because wind turbines have 20 year lifetimes
                  o because wind turbines have 20 year lifetimes

2. Climate Change
           • Climate change is a subset of energy
           • The demand for energy drives the production of products that affect
             climate change
           • What causes climate change, carbon dioxide, waste heat, pollutants?

       What part of the Materials Industry will be affected?
         • Directly it is about efficient use of fuels -> efficient production
         • Indirectly it washes through to the rest of the supply chain in terms of
             cost or availability
         • Waste by products in the manufacture of materials also cause
             pollution and affect climate

       How will it be affected?
         • The availability of alternatives will drive change - fuel cells, nuclear
             power, etc. - all require new materials sets
         • The perception of climate change means that the timetable for change
             is rapid

                                           9                  Facilitator: Jane Galsworthy
                                                                  futurefocus@dti


3. Ageing Population- Demographics
       What part of the Materials Industry will be affected?
          • Medical
          • Housing
          • Transport
          • Health

       How will it be affected?
         • Availability and differentiated markets
         • Increased need for Bio materials
         • Increased need for Composites
         • Technology needs to develop
         • Need to understand the consumer need
         • Biggest issue is healthcare
         • Security devices, personal security
         • Need for different materials solutions or automation (deskilling)
         • Need for small group of people with deep understanding of
             technologies?
         • Product design to meet needs of all age groups?

       What is the timeframe of these issues?
         • Skills issues will be critical in 10 years
         • Younger generation will have to work longer (no pension)


4. Recycling and recyclability
       What part of the Materials Industry will be affected?
           • All industries and sub sectors
           • Plastic is a major issue
           • Who will bear the cost?

       How will it be affected?
         • When will cost of recycling be lower than new cost of production
         • Regulation needs to promote recycling
         • Product stewardship is high amongst companies
         • Preserve resources and energy if recycling is done well
         • Can drive innovation
         • New global standards to regulate industry
         • Composites will be hard to recycle and cost will be high
         • Substitution of existing materials by orphan wastes
         • Bio fuels will need to be addressed
         • Big problem now
         • Packaging materials

       What is the timeframe of these issues?
         • Timeframe - now for industry (e.g. REACH) and on the domestic front
              a bulge in the next 3 years.




                                          10                   Facilitator: Jane Galsworthy
                                                                  futurefocus@dti

5. Global politics
       What part of the Materials Industry will be affected?
       How will it be affected?

       1-   Impact from trade restrictions - export finished and semi-finished materials
       2-   Raw materials commodity supplier - potential for close down
       3-   International relationships - availability and saleability
       4-   Hidden trade alliances - uncompetitive conditions
       5-   Regulatory framework / protectionist - positive or negative impact on sales
       6-   Regulatory framework/ Alliances - negative or positive
       7-   Global environmental trading - raw materials supplies and product sales
       8-   Global energy and environmental issues - potential negative impact on
            high volume materials, Bricks, Aluminium


6. Availability and cost of resources
       What part of the Materials Industry will be affected?
       How will it be affected?

       1- Waste minimisation through net shape manufacturing
       2- Product stewardship, increase in recycling, more effective use of existing
          materials
       3- Development of lower cost local substitute and drive for innovation and
          change.
       4- Improved properties to extend product life
       5- Greater reliance on UK resources


7. Public perception
       What part of the Materials Industry will be affected?
           • Certain parts of the materials industry have a better image than others
           • High tech / "sexy" materials have a better image
           • Low tech materials have poorer image

       How will it be affected?
         • This is already affecting the industry in terms of being able to recruit
             into the less popular sectors is difficult.
         • The materials design cycle needs to be overhauled radically.
         • Reduced investment in these areas
         • Loss of manufacturing capability
         • Skills base will disappear / evaporate

       What is the timeframe of these issues?
         • It will not get better in the short term unless some initiatives are
              undertaken.
         • It cannot get any worse.
         • Perception goes hand-in-hand with risk
         • Danger of image of high profile areas being damaged by health and
              environmental issues




                                           11                  Facilitator: Jane Galsworthy
                                                              futurefocus@dti

8. Skills
        What part of the Materials Industry will be affected?
          • All of the materials industry is potentially affected.
          • However, the highest impact will be in the research & development
              areas.
          • Still a shortage of skilled craftspeople
          • Niche and specialist markets will be affected most.

       How will it be affected?
         • Problem in recruiting and retaining skilled people in industry
         • Universities and R&T will be affected
         • Sector Skills Councils not effective
         • Skills will be tackled on a European or ultimately global basis with
             common skills sets and requirements.
                   o Fully transferable qualifications across geographical
                       boundaries.
         • Not sure whether the education system will be able to cater for the
             skills requirements
         • The changing face of education qualifications i.e. diplomas rather than
             A Levels will have an uncertain effect on the development of required
             materials skills
         • Industrial pull and influence is essential
         • migration of skills


9. IPR and Technology translation
       What part of the Materials Industry will be affected?
          • Will tend to be the more high tech industries affected most - those
             driven by international patents.

       How will it be affected?
         • Intense IPR wars explicitly prevents technology transfer
         • Not enough cross sector transfer of technologies
         • Tariffs and export restrictions affecting development of materials and
             technologies
         • Universities defending funded activities for IPR restricting materials
             development and investment
         • This will disrupt good balance between Universities and UK industry
         • Nationalisation of regional agenda
         • Trade barriers could be worse in the future
         • Huge threat from developing world and China
         • Could be largest market and closed
         • Not sure where the markets will be
         • Could be some global agreements on IPR
         • Need best practice on IPR

       What is the timeframe of these issues?
         • IPR/TT will continue to get worse




                                        12                 Facilitator: Jane Galsworthy
                                                                       futurefocus@dti

       Actions
         • To prepare a short definition for each of the 9 issues before circulating
                to the Materials IGT Task Groups. These follow:-



Short Precis (Definition) of the Nine Key Issue Areas Identified Above

1. Energy


       More effective use of energy driven by cost, environmental and political pressures
       Energy is consumed in the manufacture of materials. However materials enable
       more efficient production and use of energy. Next ten years will see little change in
       primary generation. Secondary power sources will become common – hybrid
       vehicles, miniature fuel cells, solar cells – all dependent on materials.

2. Climate Change


       Climate change driving low carbon economy. Reduction in waste, pollutants, fuel all
       present challenges and opportunities for materials as do new sources of power e.g.
       biomass or a move to next generation nuclear. Regulation likely to become major
       influencer in key areas.


3. Ageing Population- Demographics

       Big issues are healthcare and personal security as well as overcoming
       resistance to having to work longer. Materials have major role to play in
       facilitating the first two, with the latter an image issue to stimulate desire to
       work as part of the materials community bringing about the technical advance
       possible.

4. Recycling and recyclability


       Recycling mixed materials a major issue. Tracking materials through product life to
       facilitate intelligent recycling to preserve reserves. Cost of end of life treatment to
       become integral to that of new material. Waste minimised at all processing stages
       including optimising waste already land-filled. Product Stewardship key.


5. Global politics


       Regulatory frameworks and protectionist trade politics will continue to have either
       positive or negative impacts on materials. Commodity materials will continue to move
       from UK. Global energy and environmental issues will have a negative impact the
       prices and quantities of high volume materials used over the next ten years e.g.:
       bricks, steel and aluminium.


6. Availability and cost of resources




                                              13                    Facilitator: Jane Galsworthy
                                                                         futurefocus@dti

       These will drive need for Product Stewardship, increase in recycling, more effective
       use of existing materials, development of lower cost substitutes requiring innovation
       and change as well as a greater reliance on UK resources i.e. including more
       structured recycling.




7. Public perception

       ‘High tech’ materials have a better public image. Immense changes in properties and
       capabilities of traditional materials over last 10-15 years simply not appreciated. Ill -
       conceived or misunderstood environmental and health regulation backed up with
       NGO campaigns fuelling bad image yet we will not be able to do without these
       materials for the next 10-20 years. Danger of UK losing out on wealth generating
       opportunity as investment is reduced.


8. Skills

       Major shortage of skilled craftsmen in all materials areas in the UK. Though Sector
       Skills Councils have been established they are not effective yet. Concern the
       education system will not deliver either. Industry pull and influence will be critical to
       secure the future.

9. IPR and Technology translation


       Poor management of University IPR seriously inhibiting the commercialisation of
       applied research in the UK. More cross-sector transfer of technology required.
       Huge threat from developing world and China as future access to markets is
       uncertain. Needs global agreements on IPR and UK to become exponent of best
       practice.




                                               14                    Facilitator: Jane Galsworthy

				
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