LA Basin Study
Office of the Chancellor
January 5, 2004
Slide 1 – LA Basin Study
Gary Hammerstrom conceived the LA Basin Study; and Frank Jewett generated much of
the data gathering and local enrollment projections. The study was concerned with
several issues regarding access to the CSU for high school students that live in and
around Los Angeles County.
The first issue centered on commute times. The two questions addressed were:
1) How many high school graduates could commute to a CSU campus within 30
minutes, from door to door.
2) How many high school graduates could commute to a CSU campus within 60
minutes, for door to door.
A second set of concerns centered on where LA Basin students admitted to the CSU
actually attend college. That is,
1) How many LA Basin high school graduates attend CSU campuses within or
outside the LA Basin? And
2) how may new CSU freshmen at LA Basin campuses originated from non-LA
Basin high schools?
The last set of issues concerned the future enrollment demand for new freshmen slots at
the CSU over the next twelve years. That is,
1) How many LA Basin high school graduates would be seeking CSU enrollment in
2010? AndWhat would the total enrollment for CSU LA Basin campuses be in
Slide 2 – Population Size for 5 LA Basin Counties
Area-wise, the LA Basin is defined as the following counties: Los Angeles, Orange,
Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura. It is home to over 16 million residents (I.e.,
1,634,549 on 4-15-2000). About 9.5 million live in LA County and nearly 3 million live
in Orange County. Riverside County and San Bernardino County have populations of
about 1.5 and 1.7 million, respectively. And Ventura County is home to about 750
Slide 3 – LA Basin Population vs. California Population
In all, the LA Basin contains more than 48 percent of the state’s population (I.e.,
33,871,348 on 4-15-00). Los Angeles County alone represents 28.1 percent of the entire
state, and the addition of just Orange County raises the percentage to nearly 37 percent.
Slide 4 – Geographic and Demographic Indicators for LA Basin: 2000
The geographical area represented by the LA Basin represents just 22 percents of the
State’s landmass; but most LA Basin percentages regarding the state’s college-age
population or population pool for future college students approach the 50 percent marker.
Thus the LA Basin is certainly a locale with a very high population density relative to
other locales in the state.
Slide 5 – LA Basin High School Map – 10 Mile Radius
The LA Basin is the home of 8 CSU campuses and three off-campus operations
(CSUSB’s Coachella Valley site is not displayed). These institutions provide local
college access to graduates from the 586 public senior high schools and public
continuation schools that also reside in the five county area as well as sending at least one
student to the CSU between fall 1999 and fall 2001.
The map displays the LA Basin high schools, the 8 CSU campuses, and 2 CSU off-
campus operations. Circles that represent a 10-mile radius around each campus bound
the CSU sites. Results from a recent analysis by the Orange County Metropolitan Transit
Authority indicate that the each ten-mile radius represents the boundary for a 30-minute
automobile commute to each CSU site.
Slide 6 – 10 Mile Coverage of CA Public High School Graduates
A spatial analysis of LA Basin public high school graduates for fall 1999 to fall 2001 by
institution of origin indicates that only 37.4 percent live more than 10 miles from a local
CSU site. Fully 53.7 percent live with 10 miles of one CSU campus and 8.9 percent live
within 10 miles of two CSU campuses. Thus nearly 63 percent of LA Basin public high
school graduates live within a 30-minute commute of a CSU site.
Slide 7 – Percentage of Graduates Within 10 Miles of a CSU Campus
The largest concentration of public high school graduates live within the 10-mile border
of CSU-Los Angeles and CSU-Dominguez Hills. The smallest concentration lives
around CSU-San Bernardino and CSU Channel Islands.
Note: The sum of the percentages exceeds 62.6 percent because some individuals live
within the boundary of more than one site.
Slide 8 – Percentage of Graduates Within 10 Miles of
Just One CSU Campus
Here the percentages are restricted to just the 53.7 percent of graduating seniors that live
within 10 miles of just ONE CSU site. The campus rankings by concentration are the
same as before. But the greater gap between CSU Los Angeles and CSU Dominguez
Hills indicates that more students with proximity to more than one CSU site surround
CSU Dominguez Hills.
Slide 9 – LA Basin High School Map – 20 Mile Radius
Like before, the map displays the LA Basin public high schools, the 8 CSU campuses,
and 2 CSU off-campus operations. This time circles that represent a 20-mile radius
around each campus bound the CSU sites. Other results from the same analyses by the
Orange County Metropolitan Transit Authority indicate that the each 20-mile radius
represents the boundary for a 60-minute automobile commute to each CSU site.
Slide 10 – 20 Mile Coverage of CA Public High School Graduates
The spatial analysis for the 20 mile radii indicate that 30.3 percent of graduates live
within 20 miles of a CSU campus and just 7.1 percent live more than 20 miles from a
CSU site. Thus 93 percent of LA Basin public high school graduates can commute to a
campus within 60 minutes.
Slide 11 – CSU Destination for LA Basin Public High School
Graduates that Matriculate as First-Time Freshmen
Between fall 1999 and fall 2001, more than 43,000 LA Basin public high school
graduates enrolled at the CSU as first-time freshmen. More that four fifths of them
enrolled at a CSU located within the LA Basin.
Slide 12 – New CSU Undergraduates from the LA Basin
Stayers and Leavers
The population of new freshmen from California public high schools at CSU sites in the
LA Basin is composed of the 78 percent of LA Basin stayers and some inflow of
graduates from the state’s other 53 counties. The size of the inflow is equal to 10 percent
of all LA Basin freshmen. Thus, in net terms, the LA Basis offers access to a population
of freshmen that is 8 percent smaller that the corresponding LA Basin population. So, on
balance, the LA Basin area loses more local freshmen than it receives from outside its
Slide 13 – CSU Freshman Participation Rates for California Public High School
Graduates: Selected Areas
Between fall 1999 and fall 2001, the participation rate for freshmen from California
public high school graduates was 10.5 percent. The comparable rate for the LA Basin
was 10.6 percent. So the new freshmen yield from the LA Basin pool of public high
school graduates is on par with the state average.
A common way to project new first-time freshmen is to multiply estimates of high school
graduates by observed participation rates.
Slide 14 – Projected California Public HS Graduates
From The California Department of Finance
During the first decade of the 21st Century, the DOF forecast for California public high
school graduates is continuing annual increases which average 2.2 percent per year
(I.e.,7,500 more new student, annually). The annual average growth rate for the LA
Basin is projected to be 2.9 percent and 1.4 percent for the rest of the state. So the Basin
is destined to be the origin of more than 50% of all public high school graduates.
Slide 15 – Projected California CSU First-Time Freshmen from California Public
Under the assumption that the participation rate will average 10.5 percent, the forecast
through the 2010-2011 college year is
1) The LA Basin cohort of new CSU freshmen will grow by an annual average of
525 students and
2) the rest of the state will grow by about 270 per year.
So the LA Basin is certainly a geographical area with high potential for CSU growth.
Slide 16 – Los Angeles Basin Enrollment Projections
Total enrollment growth for the CSU is of course more than a function of just new first-
time freshmen. Undergraduate transfers and new postbaccalaureate/graduate students are
also major components, plus the resulting growth of continuing students that is a
consequence of growing numbers of new students.
The following estimates of the total CSU enrollment for the LA Basin were made from a
comprehensive projection model that took into account all sources of new students, the
re-enrollment patterns of continuing students, plus the inflow and outflow of new
students from inside and outside the LA Basin. The projections were made before the
recent cuts in state funds for higher education, so their purpose is to suggest overall
growth potential in the absence of fiscal restraints.
In terms of headcount enrollment from now till 2010, the average growth could range
from about 5000 to 7000 new students. From now till 2015, the average growth rate
could range from 3500 to 4500 students.
Slide 17 – Los Angeles Basin Enrollment Projections Total Full-Time Equivalent
In the short term, growth in heads translates to annual FTE increases of 3600 to 5300
student enrollments. In the long term, that would be 2600 to 3600 extra FTES per year.
Thus over the next 10-12 years, there appear to the potential to increase to CSU FTE
enrollment in the LA Basin enrollment by 30-40 thousand students.
Slide 18 – Issues for LA Basin Campuses
1) Greater campus awareness of local growth in high school graduates
2) Greater campus awareness of where local high school graduates apply for CSU
3) Greater campus awareness of CSU destination for local graduates that are
admitted at multiple CSU campuses
4) Integrated enrollment planning by LA Basin campuses for managing local 5-
County enrollment growth
Slide 19 – Los Angeles Basin Enrollment FTE Projections and Planning Targets for
Each year campuses independently generate FTE enrollment projections for their own
sites. They are called academic year planning targets. The latest series of planning
targets for LA Basin campuses are graphed along side the upper and lower limit FTE
projections for the same campus. The planning target total starts a little higher than the
projections, but they merge with the upper limit projection in 2010.
If LA Basin campuses developed an integrated plan for annual enrollment targets, then
the sum of campus planning targets would fall between the boundaries of the lower and
upper limit of projected enrollment demand.
Slide 20, 21, 22 – Summary
• 1) more than 60 percent of LA Basin public high school graduates reside within a 30
minute commute of a CSU campus
• 2) another 30 percent of LA Basin public high school graduates reside within a 60
minute commute of a CSU campus
• 3) more than 80 percent of LA Basin high school students that also enroll as CSU first-
time freshmen attend LA Basin universities
• 4) The number of public high school students from outside the LA Basin that enroll at
CSU campuses inside the LA Basin is equivalent to 10 percent of all LA Basin high
school graduates that become new CSU freshmen
• 5) The yearly cohort of new CSU freshmen originating at LA Basin high schools could
rise from 16,000 to 21,000 between 2003 and 2010
• 6) The total FTE enrollment for LA Basin CSU campuses could rise from 130,000 to
170,000 between 2003 and 2010 (the lower limit projection for 2010 is 150,000)