THE TERRORIST THREAT

							Complexity and U.S. National Preparedness


Stephen J. Krill Jr., CEM, PMP, CFCP
PhD student in Engineering Management
with a focus in Crisis, Disaster and Risk
Management, The George Washington
University


13th Annual Emergency Management Higher
Education Conference, June 7-10, 2010
Acknowledgements

   Presentation adapted from a research paper prepared for Dr.
    Richard Sylves, Environmental Hazards Management (EMSE
    334), Spring 2010

   Faculty Advisor – Dr. Greg Shaw




                                         http://www.gwu.edu/~icdrm/


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Part I: What is Complexity
         Theory?




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Complexity theory explains complex phenomenon when
traditional methods do not

   Integrates ideas derived from other fields, such as chaos
    theory, to examine systems as they are – and not by
    simplifying them

   Recognizes that complex behavior
    emerges from a few simple rules and
    that all complex systems are networks
    of many interdependent parts which
    interact according to those rules




                                                      BusinessDictionary.com
                                                                       4
To understand complexity theory, consider complex systems

   In a complex system numerous independent elements
    continuously interact and spontaneously organize and
    reorganize themselves into more and more elaborate
    structures over time


   Within complex systems, relationships
    between elements are frequently non-linear
    – that is, they are unpredictable



                                                      Sand pile
6
Characteristics of complex systems




                                     Ferreira
Complex systems perpetually evolve through an “adaptive cycle”
of growth, crisis, transformation, and renewal




                                                  Gunderson and Holling
So, what about chaos theory?

   Chaos theory – some
    systems, such as weather,
    are ultimately unpredictable
    because of the effects of
    small-scale events that
    cannot be included in
    prediction equations




    Lorenz’ butterfly effect
A little more about chaos theory..

   Chaos theory – is also a board game




           http://www.educationallearninggames.com/chaos-strategy-game.asp
Whither complexity?

   Complexity as an analytical method allows us to better
    understand how systems are created, unfold and
    develop and are transformed

   Complexity as an analytical tool allows us to
    understand the interactions between a disaster and its
    social, political, economic and environmental context




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Part II: How Does Complexity
Theory Apply to Emergency
         Management?




                               12
Disasters are complex events




                               Helbing
                                 13
History as a predictor of the future

   When organizations prepare for a crisis, their
    preparations are based on experience and often follow
    routinized management approaches

   But the crisis management
    approaches that worked yesterday
    may not be effective today
    – and may even have
    counter-effects tomorrow



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Complexity within international disaster response




                                                    United Nations
                                                            15
What about predictability and control?

   Because if events are random, we are not in control,
    and if we are in control of events, they are not random

   There is a fundamental clash between the need to feel
    we are in control and our ability to recognize
    randomness




                                                The Drunkard’s Walk
                                                             16
While complexity theory leverages non-linearity, especially in the
natural world…

   … emergency managers use approximations to plan for
    different types of disasters
    −   Planning assumptions
    −   Hazard substitutions


   Mandated lists (e.g., National Planning Scenarios) do
    not completely account for all types of disasters, do
    not address emerging disasters and treat disaster as
    an event rather than a system
Emergency management is full of complexities, challenges, and
interdependencies that influence preparedness and response


                                      Readiness to respond
                                         within hours

      “Fighting the Last
                                                                      Lack of integrated
       War” syndrome
                                                                    preparedness missions




   Federalism –                         Complexity
    “Who is in
     charge?”                                                     Collision of decision rights
                                                                  involving multiple players


              Absence of a common                      Less emphasis on
              preparedness doctrine                   the unknown risks
While U.S. national preparedness features aspects of complexity...

1.   Engaged partnership – leaders at all levels develop shared
     response goals and align capabilities so that no one is
     overwhelmed in times of crisis
2.   Tiered response – manage incidents at the lowest possible
     jurisdictional level and provide support when needed
3.   Scalable, flexible, and adaptable operational capabilities – as
     incidents change in size, scope, and complexity, adapt to meet
     changing requirements
4.   Unity of effort through unified command – respects the chain
     of command while harnessing seamless coordination across
     jurisdictions in support of common objectives
5.   Readiness to act – provide the best response possible
…it does not account for self-organization...

   Through self-organization, systems develop a range of
    extremely efficient, relatively simple solutions for solving very
    complex problems

   Characteristics
    −   Engage the whole system
    −   Keep expanding the circle
    −   Create abundant information
    −   Develop quality relationships
    −   Support collaboration
    −   Forget boundaries
    −   Focus on creating sustainability
… which suggests a need for a further shift in our approach to
preparedness



   Traditional Approach               Emerging Approach

   Operate from a single             Mobilize around shared
    perspective                        issue

   Maximize objectives               Optimize system

   Stay within organizational        Transcend traditional
    boundaries                         boundaries

   Limit openness, trust, and        Remain independent while
    collaboration                      working across sectors on
                                       common interests
Part III: What Comes Next?




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Complex adaptive systems can supply the crucial conceptual
“glue” to manage the process of self-organization

   Complexity theory provides a different perspective on
    preparedness because it endorses flexibility and adaptability
    while traditional measures emphasize structure and hierarchy


   Regardless of when or to what extent complexity theory is
    adapted by emergency management, there is a need for
    understanding the non-linear characteristics of emergencies
    and the concept of self-organization


   Achieving self organization is core to complexity theory and a
    condition the U.S. national preparedness system should strive
    to achieve
Maximizing the network of relationships to enhance preparedness
within a system would promote self-organization



                                          Key Considerations
                                       Identify and empower
                                        stakeholders
                                       Be an initiator
                                       Embrace interdependence
                                       Allow for ambiguity
                                       Reward collaboration
                                       Strengthen social networks
Conclusions

   Complexity theory is metaphorically useful in that it offers
    lessons in how to think about emergency management systems

   Complexity encourages us to consider preparedness in different
    terms and to use approaches that thrive within uncertainty and
    disorder

   The system that can adapt best and most quickly in an
    environment characterized by unpredictability, uncertainty, and
    rapid change, will prevail
“Everything should be made as simple as
       possible, but not simpler.”
            − Albert Einstein




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