"Methodology to model the future energy scenario for China"
Methodology to model the future energy scenario for China Kejun JIANG Kjiang@eri.org.cn Energy Research Institute, China UNFCCC Workshop on emissions projections of Annex I Parties 6-8 September 2004 Wissenschaftszentrum Bonn 1 ERI, China Framework of IPAC Environment industry Energy demand and supply Pollutant emission Price/investment Medium/long-term analys Economic impact IPAC-SGM IPAC-MATERIAL Medium/long-term analysis Energy demand and suppl Energy demand and supply Full range emission Price/investment IPAC-TIMER IPAC-Emission Price, resource, technolog Medium/long-term analysis Medium-long term analysis Economic impact Technology development IPAC/Tech Environment impact Technology policy Medium/short term analysis IPAC/AIM-Local IPAC-AIM/tech Technology assessment Region analysis Detailed technology Medium/short analysis flow Energy demand and supply Technology policy AIM-air IPAC-health 2 ERI, China Understand future energy: a multiple model approach IPAC-AIM/technology model: Bottom-up model for China IPAC-emission model: global model IPAC-SGM: CGE model IPAC-Ele: power generation model IPAC-AIM/transport IPAC-AIM/local: regional model for China 3 Linkage in IPAC Parameter Energy and Environmen Technology strategy Emission t economy scenario Top-Down Energy Bottom-up Strategy model SGM General AIM/Tech IPAC-e TIMER equilibrium sectors IGEM MESSAGE Dynamic Regions/Beijing AIM/Local economy Common scenario IPAC-Air Common parameters IPAC-Health 4 ERI: IPAC-AIM/Technology model Bottom-up model for China 26 sectors Least cost option model More than 500 technologies Medium-term scenario(2030) 5 Structure of IPAC-AIM/Technology Model Energy Energy Technology Energy Service - Oil - Boiler - Heating - Coal - Power generation - Lighting - Gas - Blast furnace - Steel products - Solar - Air conditioner - Cooling - (Electricity) - Automobile - Transportation Energy Consumption Technology Service Demands CO2 Emissions Selection Energy Database for China Technology Database for China Socio-economic Scenario for China - Energy type - Technology price - Population growth - Energy price - Energy consumption - Economic growth - Energy constraints - Service supplied - Industrial structure - CO2 emission factor - Share - Employees - Lifetime - Lifestyle Structure of IPAC- AIM/ Technology model 6 Classification Technologies (equipment) & Steel Coke oven, Sintering machine, Blast furnace, Open hearth furnace (OH), Basic oxygen furnace (BOF), AC-electric arc furnace, DC-electric arc furnace, Ingot casting machine, Continuous casting machine, Continuous casting machine with rolling machine, steel rolling machine, Continuous steel rolling machine, Equipment of coke dry quenching, Equipment of coke wet quenching, Electric power generated with residue pressure on top of blast furnace (TRT), Equipment of coke oven gas, OH gas and BOF gas recovery, Equipment of co-generation. errous metal Aluminum production with sintering process, Aluminum production with combination process, Aluminum with Bayer, Electrolytic aluminum with upper-insert cell, Electrolytic aluminum with side-insert cell, crude copper production with flash furnace, crude copper production with electric furnace, Blast furnace, Reverberator furnace, Lead smelting- sintering in blast furnace, Lead smelting with closed blast furnace, Zinc smelting with wet method, Zinc smelting with vertical pot method. ing materials Cement: Mechanized shaft kiln, Ordinary shaft kiln, Wet process kiln, Lepol kiln, Ling dry kiln, Rotary kiln with pro- heater, dry process rotary kiln with pre-calciner, Self-owned electric power generator, Electric power generator with residue heat; Brick & Tile: Hoffman kiln, Tunnel kiln; Lime: Ordinary shaft kiln, Mechanized shaft kiln; Glass: Floating process, Vertical process, Colburn process, Smelter. ical industry Equipment of synthetic ammonia production: Converter, Gasification furnace, Gas-making furnace, Synthetic column, Shifting equipment of sulphur removing; Equipment of caustic soda production: Electronic cell with graphite process, Two-stage effects evaporator, Multi-stage effects evaporator, Equipment of rectification, Ion membrane method; Calcium Carbine production: Limestone calciner, Closed carbine furnace, Open carbine furnace, Equipment of residue Technology List heat recovery; Soda ash production: Ammonia & salt water preparation, limestone calcining, distillation column, filter; Fertilizer production: Equipment of organic products production, Equipment of residue heat utilization chemical Industry Facilities of atmospheric & vacuum distillation, Facilities of rectification, Facilities of catalyzing & cracking, Facilities of cracking with hydrogen adding, Facilities of delayed coking, Facilities of light carbon cracking, Sequential separator, Naphtha cracker, de-ethane separator, diesel cracker, de-propane cracker, facilities of residue heat utilization from ethylene. -making Cooker, facilities of distillation, facilities of washing, facilities of bleaching, evaporator, crusher, facilities of de-water, facilities of finishing, facilities of residue heat utilization, facilities of black liquor recovery, Co-generator, Back pressure electric power generator, condensing electric power generator. e Cotton weaving process, Chemical fiber process, Wool weaving & textile process, Silk process, Printing & dyeing process, Garment making, Air conditioner, Lighting, Facilities of space heating. inery Ingot process: Cupola, Electric arc furnace, fan; Forging process: coal-fired pre-heater, Gas-fired pre-heater, Oil-fired pre-heater, Steam hammer, Electric-hydraulic hammer, Pressing machine; Facilities of heat processing: Coal-fired heat processing furnace, Oil-fired heat processing furnace, Gas-fired heat processing furnace, Electric processing furnace; Cutting process: Ordinary cutting, high speed cutting. tion Diesel engine, Electric induct motor ng works Tractor, Other agricultural machine ultural products process Diesel engine, Electric induct motor, processing machine, coal-fired facilities. ry Diesel engine, Electric induct motor. al husbandry Diesel engine, Electric induct motor, Other machines. heating in resident Heat supplying boiler in thermal power plant, Boiler of district heating, Dispersed boiler, Small coal-fired stove, Electric heater, Brick bed linked with stove (Chinese KANG). ng in resident Air conditioner, Electric fan. ing in resident Incandescent lamp, Fluorescent lamp, Kerosene lamp. ing & Hot water in Gas burner, bulk coal-fired stove, briquette-fired stove, Kerosene stove, Electric cooker, cow dung-fired stove, nt firewood-fired stove, methane-fired stove. ic Appliance Television, Cloth washing machine, Refrigerator, others. Space heating in service sector Heat supplying boiler in the thermal power plant, Boiler of district heating, dispersed boiler, Electric heater. ng System of central air conditioner, Air conditioner, Electric fan. ing Incandescent lamp, fluorescent lamp. ing & Hot water Gas burner, Electric cooker, Hot water pipeline, Coal-fired stove. ic Appliance Duplicating machine, computer, Elevator, others. nger & freight transport Railway (passenger & freight): Steam locomotive, Internal combustion engine locomotive, Electric locomotive.; Highway (passenger & freight): Public diesel vehicle, Public gasoline vehicle, Private vehicle, Large diesel freight truck, Large gasoline vehicle, small freight truck. Waterway (passenger & freight): Ocean-going ship, Coastal ship, Inland ship. Aviation (passenger & freight): Freight airplane, passenger airplane. 7 ERI, China Steel production process in China Coke making Sintering DIOS or Direct Iron making Pig Iron COREX Reduction Steel making Recycled steel Electric Furnace Convertor Open Hearth Casting Continuous Casting Heating Hot Rolling Steel Heating Cool Rolling Steel 8 Unit Energy Use in Steel Making Industry 300 Continuous Casting Large Convertor Coal Powder Injection EF 250 TRT 200 kgce 150 Large Blast Furnace 100 Fluit Gas Recovery DCF COREX 50 Coke Dry Quenching 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year 9 Identify efficiency promised technologies Sector Technologies Steel Industry Large size equipment (Coke Oven, Blast furnace, Basic oxygen furnace ,etc.), Equipment of coke dry quenching, Continuous casting machine, TRT Continuous rolling machine, Equipment of coke oven gas, OH gas and BOF gas recovery , DC-electric arc furnace Chemical Industry Large size equipment for Chemical Production, Waste Heat Recover System, Ion membrane technology, Existing Technology Improving Paper Making Co-generation System, facilities of residue heat utilization, Black liquor recovery system, Continuous distillation system Textile Co-generation System, Shuttleless loom, High Speed Printing and Dyeing Non-ferrous metal Reverberator furnace, Waste Heat Recover System, QSL for lead and zinc production Building Materials dry process rotary kiln with pre-calciner, Electric power generator with residue heat, Colburn process, Hoffman kiln, Tunnel kiln Machinery High speed cutting, Electric-hydraulic hammer, Heat Preservation Furnace Residential Cooking by gas, Centralized Space Heating System, Energy Saving Electric Appliance, High Efficient Lighting Service Centralized Space Heating System, Centralized Cooling Heating System, Co-generation System, Energy Saving Electric Appliance, High Efficient Lighting Transport Diesel truck, Low Energy Use Car, Electric Car, Natural Gas Car, Electric Railway Locomotives Common Use High Efficiency Boiler, FCB Technology, High Efficiency Electric Technology Motor Speed Adjustable Motor, Centrifugal Electric Fun, Energy Saving Lighting 10 ERI: IPAC-AIM/Local model Bottom-up model for 31 provinces in China 9 sectors More than 500 large point sources Focus on regional development 11 12 ERI: IPAC-AIM/Transport model Application of IPAC-AIM/technology model for transport For China, Beijing(extra large city), Taiyuan(large city), and Langfang(small city) 13 IPAC-Emission Partial equilibrium model Global model:9 regions 3 economic sector: industry, building and transport Energy sources: coal,oil, natural gas, modern biomass, hydro, nuclear, unconventional oil, unconventional gas, wind and solar Cover all emission source: energy activities, industrial process and land use Technology description: medium level cover around 40 technologies Long-term analysis up to 2100 9 gases:CO2，CH4，NOx, N2O，CO，SO2，HFC， PFC，SF6) 14 S ocio- Eco no mic S cen arios GD P P o p u la t io n R e s o u rc e B a s e L ife s t y le A I M / E m i s si o n - R i n k a g e IPAC-Emission B o t to m -u p M o d e l Endo U se So ci al F ood I n d u s t r ia l T e c h n o lo gy I n d u s t r ia l E n e r gy E n e r gy C o n s u m p t io n P ro ces s C h an g e P r o d u c t io n E f f ic i e n c y E f f ic i e n c y P at t ern C h an g e GDP R e s o u rc e E xp lo it a t io n GDP O th er Bas e T e c h n o lo gy In p u ts P o p u la t io n P o p u la t io n E n e r gy E n e r gy R es o u rce G oods & G oods & Serv i ce E n e r gy P r ic e Serv i ce Serv i ce Feedback D em an d D em an d S u p p ly P r im a r y So ci al E n e r gy E n e r gy F in a l E n e r gy F in a l E n e r gy S u p p ly B io m a s s G o o d s an d E f f ic i e n c y D em an d S u p p ly E n e r gy S e r v i c e P r ic e C h an g e E n e r gy D em an d C o n v e r s io n End U se T e c h n o lo gy L an d In p u t T e c h n o lo gy E f f ic i e n c y E f f ic i e n c y C r o p la n d E n e r gy P as t u re End U se C o n v e r s io n T e c h n o lo gy T e c h n o lo gy F o res t E n e r g y -E c o n o m i c M o d e l B io m a s s F a r m O t h er L an d L a n d E q u i l i b ri u m M o d e l G H G s E m is s io n s A I M / C l i m a te M o d e l A IM / Im p a ct M o d e l 15 ERI: IPAC-SGM A CGE model dynamic model 22 sectors Energy, economic activities and environment issues Up to 2050 6 gases 16 Module of SGM AGRICULTURE agriculture HOUSEHOLDS demographics labor supply ENERGY land supply oil production household savings PRIMARY FACTORS gas production final product demands OF PRODUCTION oil refining land surface gas refining subsurface resources coal production labor biomass production capital uranium production hydro and solar electric power GOVERNMENT electricity general government national defense education OTHER PRODUCTS goods and services 17 Economy Target of China in 2020 Government Target: Overall wealthy society On the basis of economy structure optimal and increasing profit, GDP will be four time in 2020 comparing with that in 2000，realize fundamental industrialization”； Take a new way for industry development； “continually increase ability for sustainable development”； 18 GDP Per Capita 45000 42318 40000 31707 30845 35000 28959 30000 26071 25000 20000 12068 15000 5462 10000 5000 769 0 Japan Germany America France Singapore Korea The average China 19 Average living area per capita, m2 Canada England(1992) North Europe America(1995) Japan(1993) urban area in China rural area in China 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 20 car stock for100 persons Ja 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 pa G n er m Car Ownership an Am y er ica Fr an Si ce ng ap or Au e st ra lia Ch in a EU 21 22 2010 other AIM2000 AIM2003 2030 IPAC- IPAC- 2010 2030 2010 2002 2001 2000 Steel output in China 1999 1998 Year 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1985 1980 1978 50 0 350 300 250 200 150 100 Million ton Million 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 19 7 19 8 8 19 0 8 19 5 9 19 0 9 19 1 9 19 2 9 19 3 9 19 4 9 19 5 9 19 6 9 Year 19 7 9 19 8 9 20 9 0 20 0 0 20 1 Motor Vehicles Output in China 0 20 2 1 20 0 2 20 0 30 23 Energy Production and Consumption in China 2,000 1,500 million TCE Production 1,000 Consumption 500 0 52 65 78 86 89 92 95 98 01 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 years 24 Primary Energy Demand Scenarios 6000 5000 4000 Mtce 3000 2000 1000 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 25