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Thailand Enertgy Strategy and Policy

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					           Thailand Energy Strategy and Policy




                       National Energy Policy Office

                                                   บทสรุ ปการศึกษา




                                                       (ฉบับที่ 1)




                                        Study Consortium :
                               Energy Research Institute
                               Hagler Bailly Service, Inc.
                        Resource Integration System Ltd.
              Environmental Safety and Energy Services
Center for Energy Environment Research and Development


                                          1)
                                                                                            -

                                                                                                               (The
Thailand Energy and Strategy Policy Project)
                    1
                    2
                    3
                    4
                    5



         1


                              ,                                                  ,

(      .),                                        ( .), ธ              , ธ                                 ,


         2


                                                                                        (   .),     ธ              ,
                                                (TDRI),

                                                                                        (Base Scenario),
(High Scenario),                       (Low Scenario)
             Base       Scenario                                                             . .           -
                               . - .               .                            . .                            -
                                                            ( . .      -       )
4%                                                              . .   68
                                  High           Scenario                       Low         Scenario
                                                                           .          . .    -
    . . 2544
               High           Scenario                                             . .                       - 68
                                                                        6-
                                                                        ( . .                -        )
                                                                    6                                 . .         -
2568
               Low Scenario                                                                      .
    . .           -                                                              . .
(                                             )
                                                                                         .

           3
                                                                                                            Techno-
economic approach
(sector)
                                                                            Base Scenario, High Scenario
          Low Scenario                                                                       demographic
                                 (Macroeconomic)
                                          Macroeconomic
Business-As-Usual                        (BAU)                            Energy                     Conservation
                                                                                                           sector
                                                           ธ                                               sector
                                                                                                            BAU
                                    ธ
                                   ธ                                                         ธ
                                                                        Energy                       Conservation

(                       . .          68)

                                                     ธ
                                                         sector

3.1.                          (Industrial Sector )
      3.1.1 Base Economic Scenario
                                             BAU         Scenario       Energy      Conservation            Scenario
         1) Business-As-Usual (BAU) Scenario
                                                                                              .8
                                                      . . 2568                       65,249 ktoe
         2) Energy Conservation Scenario

                                                                     ธ                                       68
                                                                                  ธ
                                                                  high efficient motors, high efficient ballasts
           variable speed motors            Boilers                                       high efficient boilers
              . . 68                        ธ                                                    ( . .         )


                                                                     (. )              . . 68
                                                                                                            . .
  68              58,294 ktoe                            .
         3)                                      energy efficiency scenario

                                            6,955 ktoe               . .       68

   3.1.2 High Economic Scenario
                                      BAU        Scenario                  Energy      Conservation   Scenario


         1) Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario
                                                                                           6.
                                            105,629 ktoe                 . .    68
         2) Energy Conservation Scenario
                                                                                       95,081              ktoe
                                                             6.
         3)                                      energy efficiency scenario
                                                                                     10,548 ktoe
11.14%        BAU scenario           . .    68
               Traditional fuel
       3.1.3 Low Economic Scenario
                                              Scenarios
          1) Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario
                                                                             47,029 ktoe                  . .      68
                             .66
          2) Energy conservation scenario
                                                                  42,063      ktoe                  . .            68
                                   . 8
          3)                                            energy efficiency scenario
                                                                                                                4,966
ktoe           . .      68                                                                   ,


3.2                          (Transport Sector)
       3.2.1 Base Economic Scenario
                                                                                     BAU Scenario               Energy
Conservation Scenario
          1) Business-As-Usual scenario
                                                                             18,824 ktoe         . . 8
64,679 ktoe                 . . 68                                         (Passenger transport) 20,357 ktoe
                     (Freight transport) 33,270 ktoe                                (Urban transport) 11,052
ktoe                                       .20%                                                        3.68%
                     4.19%                         5.47%
          2) Energy conservation scenario

                                                              ,       ,         ,
                                                                              51,905 ktoe            . . 68
                                                  .                                                     13,154
ktoe                                     31,167       ktoe                                       7,584 ktoe
                                                         2.18% 3.97%          4.61%
          3)                                           ธ                  scenario
                                       ธ
 . .               68


       3.2.2 High Economic Scenario
          1) Business-As-Usual scenario
                                                                             .8
                                            102,957 ktoe             . .    68
                                           28,880 ktoe                   53,281 ktoe
                         20,796 ktoe                                           4.89% 5.84%
       7.72%
      2) Energy conservation scenario
                 . . 68                       81,619 ktoe
19,011 ktoe                         48,662 ktoe                                      13,946 ktoe
                                                 . .      8- 68                         .
                                                  3.44% 5.52%              6.29%
          3)                                           ธ                scenario
                                                              21,339 ktoe         . .    68
                                                                      12,044 ktoe 3,805 ktoe
           3,783        ktoe


       3.2.3 Low Economic Scenario
          1) Business-As-Usual scenario
                       . .     68                                    50,298 ktoe
                           17,319 ktoe                25,040 ktoe                          7,939
ktoe                                                                                        .
                                                3.12% 3.21%      4.31%
          2) Energy conservation scenario
                        . . 2568                                     40,125 ktoe
                             11,106 ktoe              23,480 ktoe                          5,538
ktoe                                                                                       2.55%
                                                1.61% 2.99%       3.07%
            3)                                            ธ                      scenario
                                    ธ                                                       10,173         ktoe




3.3                       (Commercial Sector)
      3.3.1 Base Economic Scenario


(Economic scenario)                        BAU Scenario       Energy Conservation Scenario
            1) Business-As-Usual scenario
                      . .    8-                                                                . 6
                                              .           2543-2548         3.66%                    8-      8
        .                     8- 68
10.6%                          - 8


            2) Energy Conservation Scenario

                                                                      end-uses
                                                2,265 ktoe       . . 2538      4,080 ktoe
 . . 2568                                                   2.05%, 1.56%, 1.73%        3.45%
        . .           8-2543, 2543-2548, 2548-2558         8- 68
            3)                                            ธ                      scenario
                                                                                                1,638 ktoe
        . .      68

      3.3.2 High Economic Scenario
            1) Business-As-Usual scenario
                                                                             .8                      . .    68
                                        8,346 ktoe
            2) Energy conservation scenario
                                                                            .6                       . . 568
                                        5,950 ktoe
         3)                                                   ธ                scenario
                                                                                              2,396 ktoe
        . .   68

      3.3.3 Low Economic Scenario
         1) Business-As-Usual scenario
                                                                             2.91%                . .    68
                                           4,844 ktoe
         2) Energy conservation scenario
                                                                              .6                  . .    68
                                           3,457 ktoe
         3)                                                   ธ                scenario
                                       ธ                                                  1,386         ktoe


3.4                 (Residential Sector)
      3.4.1 Base Economic Scenario
                                                                                     BAU Scenario
Energy Conservation Scenario
         1) Business-As-Usual scenario
                                                                  scenario            19,750 ktoe
 . .           2568            (                                                     . .        2538)

LPG                                  7,052 ktoe 4,076 ktoe   4,288 ktoe
                    (Traditional fuels)             . . 2568                                              %
                                . . 2538
         2) Energy conservation scenario


                                                    18,369 ktoe        . . 2568 (
 . . 2538              1.8         )
                                         ธ
                                                                   LPG

                                                             BAU
        3)                                                     ธ                    scenario
                                 ธ                                                                   1,381 ktoe
                                                     . .                                                    68
                                                 ธ
                        620            ktoe                           571            ktoe
                                                                    828 ktoe           879 ktoe
              LPG                                     LPG
    3.4.2 High Economic Scenario
        1) Business-As-Usual Scenario
                                                                                .                     . .    68
                    20,196 ktoe
                                                 1.1%,      2.9%,        5.8%             6.5%
                                                                                                            LPG
                                                                    BASE Economic-BAU Scenario
        2) Energy Conservation Scenario
                                                                                .                     . .    68
                              17,176      ktoe
                                                           1.0%, 1.5%, 4.7%     5.4%
                          BAU                                      LPGS                  GDP
                                                                        BASE Economic- Energy
Conservation Scenario
        3)                                                 ธ                        scenario
                                                      3,020          ktoe                      . .           68
                                                 ธ
                                                                   1,852 ktoe          1,903 ktoe
              LPG                                        LPG
    3.4.3 Low Economic Scenario
        1) Business-As-Usual Scenario
                                                                                   .                      . .     68
                              19,868          ktoe
                                                             1.9%, 2.0%, 3.8%          4.5%
                                                                                                                 LPG
            ธ                        ธ
                BASE Economic-BAU Scenario
           2) Energy Conservation Scenario
                           Low             Economic-Energy                     Conservation                 Scenario
                                                                            2.0%                        . .      68
                                 18,896 ktoe
                                                                      1.9%, 1.4%, 3.3%             3.4%
                   LPG                                                                                          BASE
Economic- Energy Conservation Scenario
           3)                                                     ธ                     scenario
                       . .     68                                       972 ktoe                   .8            BAU
scenario                                                                  ธ
                                                                                                                 LPG
                                        LPG

3.5                      Agricultural Sector)
       3.5.1 Base Economic Scenario
           1) Business-As-Usual scenario
                                                                                   .6                     . .     68
                             3,474 ktoe                    3,300 ktoe
           2) Energy Conservation Scenario



                                                                                                              10%
                        LPG                                                                                 15%
                                                     . .    68                                                  3,221
ktoe                                .
           3)                                                     ธ                     scenario
           252 ktoe   . .
2568   .
  3.5.2 High Economic Scenario
     1) Business-As-Usual Scenario
                                                                      .8                 . .    68
                      5,083 ktoe
     2) Energy Conservation Scenario
                                                   .                                 . .        68
                                                                 4,714 ktoe
     3)                                              ธ                  scenario
                                                369 ktoe        . .    68                  7.27 %
                BAU Scenario
  3.5.3      Low Economic Scenario
     1) Business-As-Usual Scenario
                                                                        . 8
                                     . .   68                  3,285 ktoe                  . . . .


     2) Energy Conservation Scenario
                                                           .                       . .          68
                           3,046 ktoe
     3)                                                ธ               scenario
                            ธ                                                      239 ktoe
. . 2568

     4




 ธ                                                                                         ธ


            ธ
                                                                                               5
          5


                                                            (Least               Cost                    Approach)
                                                                                  Base, High           Low macro-
economic          scenario




5.1 Base Economic Scenario
     5.1.1 Business-As-Usual Scenario : BAU case
          1)                                    (Primary energy supply)


                                         63.6 Mtoe              . .      8     75.37 Mtoe       . .
                  . .            8,    8       68                     94.17, 138.2   205.9 Mtoe
              BAU case
                                            ธ                                                (                        )




          2)                          (Energy Transformation)
                                            ธ          (Oil refinery and gas production)
                                                                                26.5 Mtoe             . .      8
91        Mtoe                        . .         68
                                                                                                             . .     8
                                          552,737 bpd (24.9 Mtoe/ )
28.3          Mtoe/                   . .                    91.2 Mtoe/                                . .       68
                                                                                                               model
                                                                8-15%
                         ธ                                 9.8 Mtoe        . .     8         54.3 Mtoe              . .
     68                                                                                                            BAU
                                                                59.7 Mtoe/             . .       68                 9.8
Mtoe/             . .        8              . Mtoe/           . .
                           (Power generation)
                                                                                         6.07 Mtoe (71.22
TWh)               . .     8            21.74 Mtoe (255 TWh)                      . . 68 (         ...)

                                                                                                       107 TWh
        . . 2543                                 88.6 TWh             . . 68                          304.8 TWh
                                       255 TWh                                                30
4%                                                                             Gas combined cycle


         3)                              (Environmental Impacts)


                                                                           (Emission                       levels)
                                                                             (                                   )
                               (
                                   )                                                     (traditional pollutants)”
                                                                                              (Particulate matters
:TSP)                                                                   BAU                scenario
                                                                                        BAU          case


                                               (CO2)
                         CO2
                                                                                                   CO2
                    CO2
                    SOX, NOX,            TSP
                                               (acid rain)

                                                       NOX
SOX                            SOX               NOX
                                                                                                   TSP


         4)                                        (Cost of Energy System)
                                                             (least              cost               optimization)

                                                                                               (         . .2538)
   BAU case   (discounted cost) 127.56
. . 8
      5.1.2 Energy Conservation Scenario : CONS Case
          1)                                   (Primary Energy Supply)
                                                                       63.6 Mtoe           . .       8          176 Mtoe
                 . .                  68                                                         .
                                                                                                                45-55%
                                                                       ธ                    22-24%
                 10-14%                        Traditional fuel                19%       . . 8        14%
    . .        68                                                               (Renewable     energy)



                             8%                                  . .           ( .8 Mtoe                    9.61 Mtoe)
                21%          .           . .          68        (.          Mtoe                         20.5 Mtoe)
                                                                                                                  99%
                                       . . 68 ( .           Mtoe                 70.96 Mtoe)
          2)                       (Energy Transformation)




                            BAU                                            CONs Case                            . . 68
                                                                           28.76        Mtoe/                     (Mtoy)
                                                           68                74.92 Mtoy
                       ธ
                 . .   8                9.23 Mtoe                 14.52%
                  8.8%              . .                                                                               . .
     68             ธ               17.34 Mtoe             9.85%
                                              9.76 Mtoe                 . . 2538   40.7 Mtoe     . .2568
(                . . . )                           BAU                 case
                                                 9.83 Mtoe                  . .  8    18.12 Mtoe      . .
2543               44.75 Mtoe              . . 68
                           (Electricity Generation)
                       CONs case                                                   80.7 TWh               . .      8
100.7 TWh                 . .                                   TWh              . .    68 (                     . . . 6)
                                      3.6%                                             ธ                         (gas
combined           cycle)                     . . 68                 ธ                            136.5          TWh
                                            237 TWh                 58%                                     ธ


        3)                                  (Environmental Impacts)
                                CO2                    8 .                 . .     8        .                        . .
  68           .                                         4%
                                                                                                      CO2
                                CO2
                                            CO2
                                                         25-35%                                                      CO2
                                                                          25-29%
22-32%                                CO2

         SO2, NOX
                                      SOX                             1.047                . . 2543
3.126                             . . 2568                                                                           SOX


                            SO2
  68                                               SOx
                                                   NOX

           ธ                                                                       NOX
                                      (Particulate)                   95%
                                        65%                                        30%          . .    68
        4)
                                                                       CONS case                                6.
                            (         . .         8)


        5)                                  BAU        CONS cases
                                                                                              CONS case
                                                                                                      (
                           CONS                                                BAU          3%            )
                                       6%         . .        8         %        . .       58    15%     . .
2568                                                                                         ( CONS case)
                                       262.4 Mtoe
                                                                                              CONS          case
                         3.6%                            BAU case                                    3.9%
                                       63.6 Mtoe     . .   8      72.6 Mtoe                           . .
87 Mtoe           . . 2548        123 Mtoe     176 Mtoe      . .     8                           68
                                                                    BAU                           CONS case
(                                                 )
                         CONS
                                              BAU                                                       CONS
                                                                                ธ
                (traditional energy)                               -                                          2
scenarios
                                                                 CONS case
            Emission reduction due to reduced energy demand (BAU-CONS)
                                                            Unit Kton
            Pollutants          2000        2005                 2015          2025
            CO2                 28011.84    40513.01             63882.15      100385.9
            SO2                 160.34      256.19               277.07        427.1
            NOx                 118.5       167.17               254.15        399.36
            TSP                 47.61       71.03                109.14        166.13


    5.1.3                          (Environmental Scenario)



                            Environmental         scenario

                                                                            scenario


                                            CO2                                                             CO2

            ธ
(Green-House Gas : GHG)   SOX
NOX
          1)            CO2
                                           CO2                              ,      ,6 , 8 ,
                       CO2                 CONS case                                   ENV1        ENV5


                                                  ENV1       ENV5                                   CO2
                                    ENV1                                                           ENV5

ENV5                                   CO2                   . . 2543         CO2
20,500 Ktons                                          CO2        25,500 kTONS     . .    8
35,300 Ktons               . .         8            ,8 Ktons          . . 68          ENV5
                                                                 CO2


      -                 Gas combined cycle
                                                                                                     CO2


                                   -                                                  CO2
                                                                 gas combined eycle


                                                         CO2

                                                                                   CO2


                                  CO2
                                        CONS       ENV1        ENV2      ENV3         ENV4      ENV5
Total system cost, billion USD95        146.744    159.123     172.052   190.248      205.449   229.599
Incremental cost, billion USD95         0          12.379      25.308    43.504       58.705    82.855
Accumulated CO2 reduction, million tons 0          193         367       558          723       906
Incremental cost of CO2 abatement, 0               64.128      68.994    77.990       81.167    91.461
USD95/TON


          2)            (SOX control)
                                                                     SOX                                     SOX
                             4%, 8%, 12%, 16%,                                                      ES01    ES05
                    CONS case
                                                                         SOX                                    SOX
                                   Desulfurization
SOX
                                                                                                                SOX
                                                            ธ                            (Fuel switching)
                                                                     SOX


Comparison of SOX abatement and related incremental costs
                                   CONS                ESO1      ESO2        ESO3         ESO4        ESO5
Total system cost, billion USD95   146.744             146.351 146.633       146.999      147.371     147.744
Incremental cost, billion USD95    0                   -0.393 -0.111         0.255        0.627       1.000
Accumulated SOX reduction, KTON    0                   3,996.425 5,133.050   7,157.550    9,229.950   11,262.600
Incremental cost of SOX abatement, 0                   -98.375 -21.668       35.607       67.908      88.753
USD95/TON


3)              NOX
          ธ                                                NOX
                           ENO1 ENO5                                                     NOX                    4%,
8%, 12%, 16%,            20

Comparison of NOx control cases
                                             CONS      ENO1    ENO2          ENO3         ENO4        ENO5
            Total system cost, billion USD95 146.744   146.401 146.478       146.710      147.471     148.647
       Incremental system cost, 0                      -0.343 -0.266         -0.034       0.727       1.903
                       billion USD95
Accumulated NOx reduction, KTON              0         1,172.825 2,370.775 3,563.150 4,743.250 5,926.025
Average cost, USD95/ton NOx                  0         -292.646 -112.374 -9.620      153.248 321.186


4)                                    (TSP)
                                                                                   ,    . ,
                          CONS case                                             : TSP1, TSP2                TSP3
                                 TSP
                             Comparison of TSP control cases
                                                 CONS          TSP1          TSP2         TSP3
Total system cost, billion USD95                 146.744       147.424       147.426      147.431
Incremental system cost, billion USD95           0             0.680         0.682        0.687
Accumulated NOx reduction, KTON                  0             219.400       331.350      433.000
Average cost, USD95/ton NOx                      0             3,100.029     2,057.320    1,586.896


 5.2       High Economic Scenario


 high economic scenarios                                                Base economic scenarios
                                                         High economic scenarios (           3)
               input                                                             Primary energy
 supply, Energy Transformation, Environmental Impacts, the energy system cost          BAU-H,
 Energy conservation (CONS-H),       Environmental scenario ธ                     3.5.3.2
                               High Economic Scenario
 Primary energy supply, Energy Transformation, Environmental Impact, the energy system cost
 BAU-L, Energy conservation (CONS-L),              Environmental scenarios      ธ
 3.5.3.3

       5.2.1 Comparison of BAU and BAU-H Cases

                      1)                                                      (Primary energy
                                                                                       supply)
           BAU-H           case                                        BAU     case
                                  ธ

 Primary energy supply BAU vs. BAU-H
                                                                            Unit: Mtoe
          Fuels              Cases       1995          2000         2005      2015        2025
       Coal/Lignite          BAU         7.06          9.83         13.15     17.15       21.44
                            BAU-H        7.06          9.94          14       20.97       28.65
        Crude oil            BAU         24.97         26.79        35.53     54.47       86.39
                            BAU-H        24.97         26.79        38.65     69.04      147.14
         Net PP              BAU         9.23          7.74         8.39      11.6        17.15
                            BAU-H        9.23          8.37         9.56      15.47       12.04
           Gas               BAU         9.76          17.51        21.92     35.57       54.34
                            BAU-H        9.76          17.86        25.65     49.44       90.14
       Prim. Elec.           BAU         0.63          0.66         0.81      0.81        0.81
              BAU-H   0.63    0.66     0.81     0.81     0.81
Traditional    BAU    11.93   12.84    14.36    18.59    25.73
              BAU-H   11.93   12.87    14.42    20.09    32.37
  Total        BAU    63.58   75.37    94.16   138.19   205.86
              BAU-H   63.58   76.49   103.09   175.82   311.15
                                2)                             (Electricity generation)
                                                    BAU-H case            Oil-gas technology      Natural
combine cycle         oil- as t nolo i s                              . .    - 8           Combined cycle
technologies                      . . 58-2568
Electricity generation by technologies BAU vs. BAU-H
                                                                        Unit: TWh
    Technologies        Cases        1995         2000        2005         2015       2025
    Renewables          BAU           6.71         6.78       8.59         8.52       8.52
                       BAU-H          6.71         6.78       8.59         8.52       8.52
    Coal/Lignite        BAU          14.78         18.4       20.65        21.22      15.5
                       BAU-H         14.78         18.4       20.65        21.22      3.55
    Gas-Turbine         BAU           2.06         0.6        0.57         0.51       0.45
                       BAU-H          2.06         0.6        10.09        10.03      9.97
      Oil/Gas           BAU          28.44        24.13       49.1         53.51      69.79
                       BAU-H         28.49        25.84       53.51        53.51      69.79
      Gas-CC            BAU          28.02         56.2       56.2        120.58     209.65
                       BAU-H         28.02         56.2       56.2        172.33      376.4
    Net imp/exp         BAU           0.7          0.88       0.88         0.88       0.88
                       BAU-H          0.62         0.88       0.88         0.88       0.88
       Total            BAU          80.71       106.99      135.99       205.22     304.79
                       BAU-H         80.68        108.7      149.92       266.49     469.11


        3) Emission level comparison
                            -          as                                                             as


   5.2.2 Comparison of CONS and CONS-H cases
        1)                                  (Primary energy supply)


                           ธ

         Primary energy supply CONS vs. CONS-H
                                                                        Unit: Mtoe
          Fuels           Cases         1995         2000       2005         2015        2025
       Coal/Lignite       CONS          7.06         9.61       12.7         16.11       20.51
                         CONS-H         7.06         9.71       13.5         19.57       24.85
         Crude oil        CONS          24.97        26.79      34.02        48.53       70.98
                         CONS-H         24.97        26.79      37.42        62.54      115.54
Net PP    CONS    9.23   6.39   6.43   11.15   17.34
         CONS-H   9.23    7     7.89   13.92   20.24
           Fuels          Cases        1995          2000       2005          2015        2025
            Gas           CONS         9.76          16.31      18.96         27.94       40.7
                         CONS-H        9.76          16.62      21.48         38.7        69.54
        Prim. Elec.       CONS         0.63          0.66       0.81          0.81        0.81
                         CONS-H        0.63          0.66       0.81          0.81        0.81
        Traditional       CONS         11.93         12.84      14.36         18.59       25.73
                         CONS-H        11.93         12.87      14.42         20.09       32.37
           Total          CONS         63.58         72.6       87.28        123.13      176.07
                         CONS-H        63.58         73.65      95.52        155.63      263.35

        2)                (Electricity generation)
                                                 CONS-H case              Oil-gas technology      Natural
combine cycle         oil- as t nolo i s                              . .    - 8           Combined cycle
technologies                      . .2588-2568
Electricity generation by technologies CONS vs. CONS-H
                                                                        Unit: TWh
    Technologies       Cases      1995          2000          2005         2015        2025
    Renewables         CONS        6.71         6.78          8.59         8.52        8.52
                      CONS-H       6.71         6.78          8.59         8.52        8.52
    Coal/Lignite       CONS       14.78         18.4          20.65        21.22       20.87
                      CONS-H      14.78         18.4          20.65        21.22       3.55
    Gas-Turbine        CONS        2.06          0.6          0.57         0.51        0.45
                      CONS-H       2.06          0.6          0.57         0.51        0.45
    Technologies       Cases      1995          2000          2005         2015        2025
      Oil/Gas          CONS       28.49         17.89         33.7         53.51       69.79
                      CONS-H      28.49         19.42         46.25        53.51       69.79
      Gas-CC           CONS       28.02         56.2          56.2         82.98      136.51
                      CONS-H      28.02         56.2          56.2        133.02      280.81
    Net imp/exp        CONS        0.62         0.88          0.88         0.88        0.88
                      CONS-H       0.62         0.88          0.88         0.88        0.88
       Total           CONS       80.68        100.75        120.59       167.62      237.02
                      CONS-H      80.68        102.28        133.14       217.66        364


        3) Emission level comparison
                            -          as                                                             as
    5.2.3 Comparison of CO2 Control Case in Base and High Economic Scenarios
                                                 CO2       , ,6 , 8 ,                                    CONS
        CONS-H case                                 ENV1     ENV5
          Incremental cost             CONS-H case       CONS case                          Total system cost

Incremental abatement costs by cases

                                      CONS      ENV1      ENV2       ENV3      ENV4          ENV5
 Total system cost, billion USD95    146.744   159.123   172.052    190.248   205.449       229.599
  Incremental cost, billion USD95       0      12.379    25.308     43.504    58.705        82.855
Accumulated CO2 reduction, million      0        193       367        558       723           906
                tons
Incremental cost of CO2 abatement,     0       64.128    68.994      77.99      81.167          91.461
           USD95/TON
                                     CONS-H    ENVH1     ENVH2      ENVH3     ENVH4          ENVH5
 Total system cost, billion USD95    174.146   186.362   199.66     223.554   242.593       263.154
  Incremental cost, billion USD95       0      12.216    25.515     49.408    68.447         89.008
Accumulated CO2 reduction, million      0      221.49    442.75     677.74    903.35        11320.48
                ton
Incremental cost of CO2 abatement,     0       55.155    57.634     72.901      75.77           78.626
           USD95/TON

5.3 Low Economic Scenario
                              High Economic Scenario
Primary energy supply, Energy Transformation, Environmental Impact, the energy system cost
BAU-L, Energy conservation (CONS-L),              Environmental scenarios      ธ
3.5.3.3
    5.3.1 Comparison of BAU and BAU-L Cases

                  1)                                                     (Primary energy
                                                                                  supply)
           BAU-L case                                    BAU case
                ธ

                   Primary energy supply BAU vs. BAU-L
                                                                      Unit: Mtoe
   Fuels                  Cases        1995      2000        2005        2015            2025
Coal/Lignite   BAU     7.06    9.83    13.15   17.15   21.44
               BAU-L   7.06    9.76    12.65   14.78   17.9
Crude oil      BAU     24.97   26.79   35.53   54.47   86.39
               BAU-L   24.97   26.79   34.09   47.79   67.96
                                                                    Unit: Mtoe
  Fuels                 Cases       1995        2000      2005         2015       2025
  Net PP                BAU         9.23        7.74      8.39         11.6       17.15
                        BAU-L       9.23        7.54      7.76         9.34       14.33
  Gas                   BAU         9.76        17.51     21.92        35.57      54.34
                        BAU-L       9.76        17.42     20.79        29.02      39.99
  Prim. Elec.           BAU         0.63        0.66      0.81         0.81       0.81
                        BAU-L       0.63        0.66      0.81         0.81       0.81
  Traditional           BAU         11.93       12.84     14.36        18.59      25.73
                        BAU-L       11.93       12.87     14.43        17.99      23.2
  Total                 BAU         63.58       75.37     94.16        138.19     205.86
                        BAU-L       63.58       75.04     90.53        119.73     164.19

           2)              (Electricity generation)
                                                  BAU-L    case        Oil-gas technology      Natural
combine cycle         oil- as t nolo i s                           . .    - 8           Combined cycle
technologies                      . . 58-2568
Electricity generation by technologies BAU vs. BAU-L
                                                                    Unit: TWh
    Technologies         Cases     1995         2000       2005         2015      2025
    Renewables           BAU        6.71        6.78       8.59         8.52       8.52
                        BAU-L       6.71        6.78       8.59         8.52       8.52
    Coal/Lignite         BAU       14.78        18.4       20.65        21.22      15.5
                        BAU-L      14.78        18.4       20.65        21.22     20.87
    Gas-Turbine          BAU        2.06         0.6       0.57         0.51       0.45
                        BAU-L       2.06         0.6       0.57         0.51       0.45
        Oil/Gas          BAU       28.44        24.13      49.1         53.51     69.79
                        BAU-L      28.49        23.76      43.6         53.51     69.79
        Gas-CC           BAU       28.02        56.2       56.2        120.58    209.65
                        BAU-L      28.02        56.2       56.2         90.3     137.79
    Net imp/exp          BAU        0.7         0.88       0.88         0.88       0.88
                        BAU-L       0.62        0.88       0.88         0.88       0.88
          Total          BAU       80.71       106.99     135.99       205.22    304.79
                        BAU-L      80.68       106.62     130.49       174.94     238.3

           3) Emission level comparison
                        BAU-L         as                                                           as
   5.3.2 Comparison of CONS and CONS-L Cases

                  1)                                                    (Primary energy
                                                                                 supply)

                            ธ                                                      -             as


       Table E.13 Primary energy supply CONS vs. CONS-L
                                                                            Unit : Mtoe
         Fuels             Cases       1995           2000    2005         2015         2025
      Coal/Lignite         CONS         7.06           9.61    12.7        16.11        20.51
                          CONS-L        7.06           9.54   12.22        13.94        16.21
        Crude oil          CONS        24.97          26.79   34.02        48.53        70.98
                          CONS-L       24.97          26.79   33.63        47.79        61.78
         Net PP            CONS         9.23           6.39    6.43        11.15        17.34
                          CONS-L        9.23            6.2    4.93        4.05         8.55
          Gas              CONS         9.76          16.31   18.96        27.94        40.7
                          CONS-L        9.76          16.23   17.95        22.5         30.1
       Prim. Elec.         CONS         0.63           0.66    0.81        0.81         0.81
                          CONS-L        0.63           0.66    0.81        0.81         0.81
       Traditional         CONS        11.93          12.84   14.36        18.59        25.73
                          CONS-L       11.93          12.87   14.43        17.99        23.2
         Total             CONS        63.58           72.6   87.28       123.13       176.07
                          CONS-L       63.58          72.29   83.97       107.08       140.65

       2)                  (Electricity generation)

                                                  CONS-L case        Oil-gas technology      Natural
combine cycle          oil- as t nolo i s                        . .    - 8           Combined cycle
technologies                       . . 58-2568

Electricity generation by technologies CONS vs. CONS-L
                                                                      Unit: TWh
      Technologies         Cases       1995           2000    2005         2015        2025
      Renewables           CONS        6.71           6.78    8.59         8.52        8.52
                          CONS-L       6.71           6.78    8.59         8.52        8.52
      Coal/Lignite         CONS        14.78          18.4    20.65        21.22       20.87
                          CONS-L       14.78          18.4    20.65        21.22       20.87
      Gas-Turbine          CONS        2.06            0.6    0.57         0.51        0.45
                          CONS-L       2.06            0.6    0.57         0.51        0.45
Oil/Gas    CONS    28.49   17.89   33.7    53.51   69.79
          CONS-L   28.49   17.54   28.83   53.51   69.79
                                                                            Unit: TWh
        Technologies         Cases         1995         2000        2005           2015        2025
          Gas-CC             CONS          28.02         56.2       56.2           82.98      136.51
                            CONS-L         28.02         56.2       56.2           58.06       84.8
        Net imp/exp          CONS           0.62         0.88       0.88            0.88       0.88
                            CONS-L          0.62         0.88       0.88            0.88       0.88
            Total            CONS          80.68       100.75      120.59         167.62      237.02
                            CONS-L         80.68        100.4      115.72          142.7      185.31


         3) Emission level comparison
                          BAU-L            as                                                                 as


    5.3.3. Comparison of CO2 Control Case in Base and Low Economic Scenario
                                                       CO2              ,   ,6 , 8 ,                      CONS
        CONS-L case                                       ENV1             ENV5
          Incremental cost            CONS-H case                     CONS case                Total system costs

Table E.15 Incremental abatement costs by cases
                                      CONS          ENV1      ENV2       ENV3        ENV4       ENV5
 Total system cost, billion USD95    146.744       159.123   172.052    190.248     205.449    229.599
  Incremental cost, billion USD95       0          12.379    25.308     43.504      58.705     82.855
Accumulated CO2 reduction, million      0            193       367        558         723        906
                tons
Incremental cost of CO2 abatement,     0           64.128    68.994      77.99      81.167     91.461
           USD95/TON
                                     CONS-L        ENVL1     ENVL2      ENVL3       ENVL4      ENVL5
 Total system cost, billion USD95    133.910       145.628   158.447    176.103     194.393    213.573
  Incremental cost, billion USD95       0          11.718    24.537     42.193      60.483     79.662
Accumulated CO2 reduction, million      0          167.189   326.045    502.052     657.810    807.788
                ton
Incremental cost of CO2 abatement,     0           70.089    75.255     84.041      91.946     98.618
           USD95/TON
                                 2 : Update the Energy Conservation Plan


                                    ( p at           t            n                ons ation       lan)




                                                                                   Demand-side Energy
Technology

                                      (                                                              )

                                                                           ธ
(                                                                              )
(                    )
                         -                                                                 . .   8- 68




                                                 Business             as           Usual         (BAU)
                             ธ
(                                            )

                                                            Conservation case


       1.    CONS1                                                             ธ
       2.    CONS2
       3.    CONS3                                  ธ
       4.    CONS4
5. CONS
                                                              . .        8       . .   68
                BAU                                                                    6
                                                          ธ                  6




                                       8
(28%)   (       )             (    )                  (       )

                                  54%             ธ           30%                      17%



            ธ
                                                                    -6
                          ธ
                    BAU       Conservation Case
Exhibit   ES-1   ธ
                  Cost-Effectiveness of the Conservation Case
       Exhibit                   ES-2
                                                          .
                      BAU                                      CONS-2




                                  Implications for Energy Supply

       Overall         Energy       Supply:
                                                               ธ
            BAU                         8                      ธ
               High Scenario (                        )
                          ธ                             . .  8- 68
CONS       CONS1                               . .   68 CONS    CONS4


                       :
                                                              . .         68                       BAU
                                           Combined         Cycle
                                             22

                                                 :                  BAU
                                                                8
                                                     6                                  High Scenario
                                  21%                                                           Low
Scenario (                                                  )                                    9%




                                 BAU                       CONS
                                                                    CO2   16%                  SOx
12%                              NOx                 18%                        TSP

                                                                                               CONS
                                                                               CONS4           CONS

                                                                                  CO2              NOx
                                       SO2



        Recommended Strategies and Initiatives
Finding Regarding Current Strategies
                 ธ                                                                         ธ

                                                                                               ธ
                                                            ธ

                            :                                       ธ
             (                               )

                                      :
                                                             ธ
( .)
                :        (                              )
                                                         .
                     ธ                                   .
                     ธ                                   .
                               ธ
         .




                                   .)


                                                     ธ
             /


                                                         )
                                                     .   )




                 (Strategy Recommendations)

1.                       (Overall Energy Strategy)

     

     
     

     
2. Demand-Side

     (Findings)

                         ธ
      
(                     )

                                     ธ

      

                 ธ




      1)                                  ธ

      2)

      3)              ธ
                                      ธ                       -

      4)                                              ธ
                                              )
                                  ธ
                                                  ธ


                              ธ
                                                          ธ
                                      Exhibit ES-4
   Recommended Strategies and Initiatives for Target Sectors and Market Segments
Market
Segment         Strategy      Industry            Commercial &
                                                   Institutional
                                                                                Residential



Existing     Voluntary        Promotion       Promotion & case studies    Promotion of financial
                              and case        Development of              benefits of efficient
facilities                    studies         owner/tenant financial      products & appliances
                                              cost/benefit-sharing        Develop financing
                                              mechanisms                  mechanisms to overcome
                              Policy review of Designated Factories       first cost barriers
                              and Buildings programs
New          Compulsory       Compulsory        Labeling and minimal      Compulsory labeling and
                              labeling and      efficiency standards      minimum efficiency
facilities                    minimal           for new buildings and     standards for
and                           efficiency        major equipment           refrigerators, air
                              standards for     (lighting, air            conditioners, lighting
equipme                       new               conditioning)             Compulsory efficiency
nt                            equipment                                   standards for new
                              (motors,                                    building shells
                              boilers)
                                                                          Compulsory efficiency
                                                                          labeling for selected other
                                                                          appliances
Conserv      Complementary    Develop           Develop ESCO              R&D and promotion of
             & market         ESCO              industry infrastructure   efficiency designs in non-
ationMa      transformation   industry          Standard protocols on     electric cookstoves
rket                          infrastructure    efficiency testing &
                              Standard          labeling
Support                       protocols on      Government
                              efficiency        procurement to abide
                              testing &         by life-cycle-cost
                              labeling          principles

                              Policy review of impact of import duties on efficient technology
                              adoption
                                       Exhibit ES-5
                           Suggested Conservation Savings Targets

       Year                  Cumulative Reduction (as % of Sector’s BAU Consumption)
                     Transport          Industry            Commercial         Residential
2000                      2.4%               1%                0.2%               0.1%
2005                      5.7%               4%                1.9%               0.8%
2010                      10.1%              8%                6.1%               2.0%
2015                      15.5%              14%               12.5%              3.2%
2020                      21.8%              18%               16.1%              3.7%
2025                      29.6%              21%               18.9%              4.2%



3.            (Transportation Sector)

       (Findings)

       




       

       

       
                                               ธ



       1.                                      ธ
       2.                               ธ
       3.
       4.                                          ธ
4.                 (Renewable Energy)

      (Findings)

       

       


       
              ธ
       




                          (Policy Reforms)                          ( )

                                                                    (2)


                                             (Commercialization   Plans)




5. Conventional Energy Supply

      (Findings)

       



   15
            (Recommendations)


       1.
       2.                              ธ
       3.


                                                          ธ
                                                     ธ         ธ
                                           ธ




       1)
       2)                              ธ
       3)
       4)          T&D                         ธ



                                               NOX                 SOX
                                                         CO2



6. Overall Institutional Recommendations

      (Findings)


                    ธ
                       .




             Privatizing

                  DSM




1.   ธ

2.

3.       ธ

4.

5.
                 3 : Integrate Recycling into the Energy Conservation Plan

                               4

1                                                           (Review of Existing Recycling
         Infrastructure in Thailand)
2                    ธ                                                  (Exmine Successful and
         Unsuccessful Recycling Program and Approaches in Thailand and Elsewhere, and Summarize
         Lessons Learned as They Apply to Thailand)
3                                                              ธ
                      ธ                                        (Identify Recycling Approaches and
         Technologies which are Applicable to Thailand)
4                                                                          (Design a Recycling
         Program for Thailand and Incorporate it into the ECP)

    1

    1)
         1.1)
                                                                      ธ
         1.2)
         1.3)

    2)
             ธ
         -
         -
         -

                                                                             . .       –
                                   ES-1


                               ธ
                  2540
      .
          (   )          20%       10%
30%
2

                                   ธ                           ธ


       ธ
    
    
    
    
    
    
                            ธ
    

                                                               Brecht,           Belgium
                                           Peel,                                  Ontario
                                                         New             York       State
                     Zootermeer, Holland                                        Indonesia
            Brazil                             Seattle                               UK
                   two-stream, four-stream       six-stream       Guelph, Quinte   Lemsterland,
Holland                                                           Japan
British Columbia                   Intensive drop-off       Calgary
                           Nova Scotia
                                   Jakarta
                                Oregon ธ Clean Washington Center                        ธ
Plastic File                                                                                US
                                                   the German Packaging Stewardship Ordinace
                   Duales System Deutschland (DSD), Nova Scotia Resource Recycling and Recovery
Fund.

        3



        
        
                                    ธ


                                                              ธ

                                                                    ธธ
ES-2                            ธธ            ธธ
                                                       ธ
        
            ธ
                         a refuse derived fuel (RDF)    garbage stream
                                                 ธ

        

        
        
        
    
                                            50%     . .
    

    
                                                               ธ




                                                           ธธ




    

    



                                                ธธ   ธ




                                        ธธ




                   RDF (Refuse Derived Fuel)
       RDF
             RDF
                                    68




            ธธ
                                (              . .       )
                             . .                                                  8
                                                             . .
                   . . 543




            ธธ

                                                                         (Landfill)
                                                     ธ
        
                                                                    ธ
                                                             ธ
                                                                  (Acidic leachate)
                             ธ
                                        RDF

    4



-

-                                                        ธ
-                RDF
       38,000,000   GJ/year


ES-3

				
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