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Lies_ Damn Lies_ and the Election of 2000

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					Lies, Damn Lies, and the Election of 2000
            Kathleen Smith & Roberta Jones
                    NCTM 2002
                     Las Vegas
There are three kinds of
lies: lies, damn lies and
       statistics….
      Benjamin Disraeli...
 as attributed to Mark Twain
     in his Autobiography
 Why Statistics?
• What better way to relate
  math to real life?
• What better way to bring
  the media into math class?
• What better source of non-routine problems?
• What better way to integrate other subjects?
• What could be a more useful life skill?
• What better way to span the mathematics
  curriculum?
   An Algebra Lesson
• Statement:
  “Gore is up in Michigan 45% to
  37%, still a statistical dead heat
  when considering the 4 point
  margin of error.”
                 True or False?
        What questions could
          be addressed?
• What does “margin of error” mean?
• Does it apply to each candidate or to the difference
  between them?
• What do we do with the
  unreported 18%?
• What does “dead heat” mean?
• How could we model this?
• How can we engage the
  students with this question?
       Ra ndom Vo te Ge nerator


                                  BUS H   GORE


49 0
48 0
47 0
46 0
45 0
44 0
43 0
42 0
41 0
40 0
39 0
38 0
37 0
36 0
35 0
34 0
33 0
“Gore is up in Michigan 45% to
 37%, still a statistical dead heat
 when considering the 4 point
 margin of error.”
Some Additional Questions?
• How was this information obtained?
• How many people need to be contacted?
• How much does it cost?
• What exactly is “margin of error”?
• What are other sampling problems?
The worst question ever…..

 Are you in favor of direct
 retaliatory measures against
 Franco’s piracy?
IS THIS THE CAUSE OF
    ALL THE FUSS?
McREYNOLDS VOTES BY COUNTY
      A Look at Exit Polls
• Where do they come from?
• How are they conducted?
• How are they interpreted?
• What went wrong?
• What points do we want to
  make with the students?
• How do we engage them
  with this issue?
   What was the Final
“Official” Vote in Florida?
 • Bush 2,912,790
 • Gore: 2,912,253
 • A difference of 537votes!
 • Why not just flip a coin?
What About the Electoral College?
What you might address:
• History of Electoral College
• Current setup of the College
• Does it need to be changed?
           States   92 -Re p-% 92 -De m-%      96 -Re p-%     96 -De m-%      00 -Re p- % 00 -De m-%      El ec. V.
Al aba ma                47 .6 5     40 .8 8        50 .1 2         43 .1 6        56 .4 8      41 .5 7          9
Al aska                  39 .4 6     30 .2 9          50 .8         33 .2 7        58 .6 2      27 .6 7          3
Ari zon a                38 .4 7     36 .5 2        44 .2 9         46 .5 2        51 .0 2      44 .7 3          8
Arka nsas                35 .4 8     53 .2 1          36 .8         53 .7 4        51 .3 1      45 .8 6          6
Ca li fo rn ia           32 .6 1     46 .0 1        38 .2 1          51 .1         41 .6 5      53 .4 5        54
Co lorad o               35 .8 7     40 .1 3          45 .8         44 .4 3        50 .6 5      42 .3 9          8
Co nnecticut             35 .7 8     42 .2 1        34 .6 9         52 .8 3        38 .4 4      55 .9 1          8
De laware                35 .3 1     43 .5 1        36 .5 8         51 .8 2          41 .9      54 .9 6          3
DC                           9.1     84 .6 4          9.34          85 .1 9          8.95       85 .1 6          3
Fl ori da                40 .8 9         39         42 .3 2         48 .0 2        48 .8 5      48 .8 4        25
Geo rg ia                42 .8 8     43 .4 7        47 .0 1         45 .8 4        54 .6 7      42 .9 8        13
Ha wai i                   36 .7     48 .0 9        31 .6 4         56 .9 3        37 .4 6      55 .7 9          4
Idah o                   42 .0 3     28 .4 2        52 .1 8         33 .6 5        67 .1 7      27 .6 4          4
Ill i noi s              34 .3 4     48 .5 8        36 .8 1         54 .3 1        42 .5 8       54 .6         22
Indi an a                42 .9 1     36 .7 9        47 .1 3         41 .5 5        56 .6 5      41 .0 1        12
Iowa                     37 .2 7     43 .2 9        39 .9 2         50 .2 6        48 .2 2      48 .5 4          7
Ka nsa s                 38 .8 8     33 .7 4        54 .2 9         36 .0 8        58 .0 4      37 .2 4          6
Ke ntu cky               41 .3 4     44 .5 5        45 .8 4         44 .8 8          56 .5      41 .3 7          8
Lo ui si ana             40 .9 7     45 .5 8        39 .9 4         52 .0 1        52 .5 5      44 .8 8          9
Mai ne                   30 .3 9     38 .7 7        30 .7 6         51 .6 2        43 .9 7      49 .0 9          4
Maryl an d               35 .6 2      49 .8         38 .2 7         54 .2 5        40 .1 8      56 .5 7        10
Massa chu se tts         29 .0 2     47 .5 4        28 .0 8         61 .4 7          32 .5       59 .8         12
Mi chi ga n              36 .3 8     43 .7 7        38 .4 8         51 .6 9        46 .1 4      51 .2 8        18
Mi nne sota              31 .8 5     43 .4 8        34 .9 6          51 .1           45 .5      47 .9 1        10
Mi ssissi pp i           49 .6 8     40 .7 7        49 .2 1         44 .0 8        57 .6 2       40 .7           7
Mi ssouri                33 .9 2     44 .0 7        41 .2 4         47 .5 4        44 .1 1      47 .0 8        11
Mon ta na                35 .1 2     37 .6 3        44 .1 1         41 .2 3        58 .4 4      33 .3 6          3
Ne bra ska               46 .5 8      29 .4         53 .6 6         34 .9 5        62 .2 5      33 .2 5          5
Ne vad a                 34 .7 3     37 .3 6        42 .9 1         43 .9 3        49 .5 2      45 .9 8          4
Ne w Hampshi re          37 .6 4     38 .8 6        39 .3 7         49 .3 2        48 .0 7       46 .8           4
Ne w Jerse y             40 .5 8     42 .9 5        35 .8 6         53 .7 2        40 .2 9      56 .1 3        15
Ne w Me xi co            37 .3 4      45 .9         41 .8 6         49 .1 8        47 .8 5      49 .9 1          5
The Electoral College system
tends to exaggerate the vote:

               Clinton    Dole
Popular Vote        49%    41%
Electoral College   70%    30%
States Won          62%    38%
   Visit the Website:
www.mste.uiuc.edu/smith/
 smithka@cmi.k12.il.us

And enjoy the election of 2004...
Election 2002 Websites Where we will put all the stuff you have seen today
www.mste.uiuc.edu/smith

National archives has a nice informational site on the Electoral College and the 2000 election,
http://www.nara.gov/fedreg/elctcoll/2000res.html

108 pages of article titles pertaining to the 2000 election.
http://www.dailynews.yahoo.com/fc/us/Presidential_Election_2000/

The results of the exit polling in Florida
www.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/2000vote/general/fl_epollgridPres.html

Supreme Court of Florida: The Presidential Election Case
http://www.flcourts.org
http://www.flcourts.org/sct/sctdocs/ops/sc00-2431-remand.pdf

A Note on the Voting Irregularities in Palm Beach
http://www.madison.hss.cmu.edu/

The Electoral College
http://www.fec.gov/pages/ecmenu2.htm

M123 -Apportionment Methods
http://www.brinkley.isu.edu/~hoffjame/m123/apportion.html

Palm Beach County Election Analysis
http://www.bestbookmarks.com/election/#links

Journal of Statistics Education
http://www.amstat.org/pubtications/jse/secure/v8n3/gourgey.cfm

				
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