Fuchs

Document Sample
Fuchs Powered By Docstoc
					             The Distributional Effects of
                 Medical Advances
• No clear predictions from economic theory
  The effects depend on:
   1. Prevalence of the health problem(s)
   2. Complexity and cost of the advance
   3. Access to the advance (insurance, etc)

• Welfare effects may differ from health effects
   1. Trade-offs between health and other commodities may differ
   2. Advances may facilitate harmful behaviors

• Health depends on many factors besides medical care
           Year-to -Year Change of Age-adjusted Death Rates,
                     U.S. Whites and Blacks, 1950-97
            (5 year moving average centered on middle year)
Deaths per 100,000
    20
                                                                        White
                                                                        Black
    10

     0

   -10

   -20

   -30

   -40

   -50
         1950   1955   1960   1965   1970   1975   1980   1985   1990    1995
                                            year
 Year-to -Year Percentage Change of Age-adjusted Death Rates,
                 U.S. Whites and Blacks, 1950-97
        (5 year moving average centered on middle year)
Percent per annum
   1.0
                                                                        White
   0.5                                                                  Black

   0.0
  -0.5
  -1.0
  -1.5
  -2.0
  -2.5
  -3.0
  -3.5
         1950   1955   1960   1965   1970   1975   1980   1985   1990    1995
                                            year
          Standard Deviation Across 50 U.S. States of Log of
                Age-adjusted Death Rate, 1979-2000
Standard deviation
   0.10



   0.09



   0.08



   0.07


     0
   0.06
        79
        80
        81
        82
        83
        84
        85
        86
        87
        88
        89
        90
        91
        92
        93
        94
        95
        96
        97
        98
        99
        00
      19
      19
      19
      19
      19
      19
      19
      19
      19
      19
      19
      19
      19
      19
      19
      19
      19
      19
      19
      19
      19
      20
                                     year
OLS Regression Results Across 50 States
Dependent Variable: Rate of decline of Age-adjusted mortality
                    1980-99, percent per annum (sign reversed)
                    Mean 0.737            St.Dev. 0.164
RHS Variables          Regression        (Standard   P Value
                       Coefficient         Error)
% in poverty (a        -0.0272            (0.0079)   0.0013
% black (a             -0.0025           (0.0028)    0.3765
% >=65 (a              -0.0187           (0.0111)    0.1007
% foreign born (a      0.0249            (0.0054)    <0.0001
Constant               1.1901            (0.1616)    <0.0001
R2 =0.564              Adj. R2 = 0.525
a)   Mean of 1980,1990 and 2000

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:2
posted:8/27/2012
language:English
pages:5