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									  United Nations Economic Commission for Africa


                    African Centre for
                         Statistics




Vital Statistics Combined with Census
 Data: Improving the Availability of
      Data for MDGs Monitoring

          5th ASSD Meeting – Senegal, Dakar
                 19-21 November 2009

                 Genene Bizuneh
                   ACS, ECA
            Content
 MDGs   and the Need for Combined
  Data Sources
 Need for sub-national data: targeted
  in monitoring MDGs
 A Vicious Cycle at Work in Africa
 How to Fix the Problem – the 1900s
  USA and Canada Experience
 Way Forward
                                         2
MDGs: Data Types and Level of
      Disaggregation
 Type
  Stock and flow statistics
  Current and trend statistics
  High quality statistics
 Disaggregation
  Country level – up to the lowest
   administration unit
  Regional – by sub-regions and countries
  Global – disaggregation by regions
                                             3
MDGs: the Need for a Combination
  of Stock and Flow Statistics
   Statistics for MDGs at Local Governments
    Censuses (stock statistics)
    Vital statistics from civil registration (flow statistics)
    Administrative records (flow statistics)
   Statistics for MDGs at Country, Regional and
    Global levels
    Censuses (stock statistics)
    Vital statistics from civil registration (flow statistics)
    Sample surveys (stock statistics)
    Administrative records (flow statistics)
                                                             4
  MDGs and the Need for Sub-
        national Data
 MDGs are Universal
 MDGs are not only meant for
   country level measurements
 They are equally relevant and
   applicable measurement
   standards for a community,
   district or province/state (except
    maybe Goal 8)
                                        5
          Few Examples:-
 Prevalence of underweight children
    under-five years of age (Goal 1)
 Proportion of pupils starting grade
    1 who reach grade 5 (Goal 2)
 Ratios of girls to boys in primary, …
    education (Goal 3)
 Infant mortality rate (Goal 4)
 Maternal mortality ratio (Goal 5)
 Prevalence and death rate associated
    with malaria (Goal 6)
…                                        6
The Mapper at the national
         level
 Net enrolment rates in primary education, both sexes



    A Map will be inserted here!




                                                        7
The Mapper at the sub
    national level

A Map will be inserted here!




        http://geoinfo.uneca.org/mdg/   8
National vs Sub National Storylines
                     Incidence of poverty in Ghana by area
    60                                                                               58.7

                                                                                            51.7
                                                                              49.3
    50


    40
                      19 9 0 / 9 1     2005/06

                                                                                                   28.5
    30                                                          27.2
%




                                                                       22.5

    20

                                            9.2
    10                                            6.9
           4.4 3.5           3.5 2.3

    0
            Accra        Urban forest    Rural coastal     Rural forest         Rural       Ghana
                                                                              savannah
                                                        Areas

 Source: Ghana Statistical Services, 2007. Poverty line: 2,884.7 new cedis per year
                                                                                                          9
Data Quality Assurance for MDGs
 Keeping quality from the source
    Example :- Age data – registering births is the
    conventional method in determining exact ages
    - Improving quality of number and date of birth,
    death, … causes of death, … data items need CR
 Ensuring MDGs being owned by
   local governments - local governments
     need to use and benefit from MDGs
 Keeping interface between census
   and vital statistics – population dynamics,
     estimates, projections, …
                                                       10
Does Africa have Appropriate
 Data Sources for MDGs?
   Take as an example – poorly performing:-
    Infant Mortality Rate
    Child Mortality Rate
    Maternal Mortality Ratio
    Prevalence and death rates associated
     with malaria, tuberculosis, …
    Denominators lack current and
    reliable estimates
                                               11
A Vicious Cycle at Work in Africa
MDG Africa Steering Group Assessment (2008)
 Inadequate development in the statistics
  sector in the past years
 Poor-quality and sometimes irrelevant
  statistics
    Users do not value statistical products
 Low demand for data from users (poor quality)
 Weak and underfunded statistical systems
    Weak statistical capacity

                                                  12
    Why? … because …
 Dependence    on stock statistics –
  censuses/ surveys
 Problem of short-term/ quick fix
  approach – indirect methods, …
 Lack of dynamism in methods and
  techniques
 No direct benefit to the data generators
  – the individual/ HH/ local
  administration                        13
    How to Fix the Problem?
 In the 1900s Canada and United
 States faced similar problems: but it
 took them only one decennial
 census to detect the problem and to
 decide how to fix it
 But Africa has gone through four
 census rounds (over 4 decades), not
 yet through detecting the source of
 the problem…                            14
      United Sates - 1900
“… It was abundantly clear that the
 census method would not give results
 comparable in accuracy with the method
 of continuous registration, and the
 mortality census schedule was
 abandoned after the census of 1900.
 From that time onwards, efforts were
 concentrated on developing vital
 statistics by the registration method”
 (UN, 1955)
                                          15
          Canada - 1911
“… It was thought that once every ten years
this enumeration of births and deaths would
provide an over-all check on the registration,
but results were so poor that in 1911 the
method was discontinued. From that time
forward, every effort was devoted to
establishing the registration method by
improving and standardizing the provincial
legislation with the aim of securing uniform
registration laws and procedures throughout
the provinces.” (UN, 1955)
                                                 16
    MDG Africa Steering Group -
      Key Recommendations
 Support the 2010 census round
 Support the creation/ improvement
 of national systems for civil
 registration and vital statistics
 Support the infrastructure to
 conduct enhanced and comparable
 socio-economic surveys across
 Africa
                                      17
  MDG Africa Steering Group –
   External Resource Pledge
 US$  85 Million for censuses
 US$ 80 Million for civil
  registration and vital statistics
  systems
 US$ 50 Million for household
  surveys
                                      18
    ICPD@15 - Recommendation
                    (Oct, 2009)

 Establish and sustain the effective
  functioning of national vital registration
  system (registration of vital events - births,
  deaths, marriages) given the
  administrative, statistical and legal
  significance of vital statistics
 Data collected through the national
  population and housing census should be
  analysed and used for development
  planning                                         19
               Way forward
   Encompass both enumeration and registration
    methods in statistical systems
   NSDSs need to take into account both stock and
    flow statistics
   NSOs need to promote and technically lead
    CR&VS initiatives in collaboration with CR
    agencies/ authorities
   There is a need to reinforce and promote sub-
    national MDG monitoring
   Work towards implementing MDG Africa Steering
    Group and ICPD@15 recommendations
   Support current regional initiatives on CR&VS 20
Thank you!
        African Centre for Statistics
 Visit us at http://knowledge.uneca.org




                                          21
22
“An African knowledge base on civil
registration and vital statistics to be built at
the ECA and for ECA to act as a regional
platform for civil registration and vital
statistics systems in channeling technical
assistance, resource mobilization and
coordination of international support to
African countries to further develop the source
of vital statistics”

Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Finance and
      Economic Affairs, United Republic of
                                    Tanzania 23
24
“Civil registration is the best source
of detailed, accurate, relevant and
timely vital statistics – is a guiding
principle that the United Nations
Statistics Division adopted since its
inception in late 1940’s”


              UN Statistical Division
                                         25
26
“For its part, the African Development
Bank stands ready to play a key role in
providing the necessary financial and
technical support for improving
statistics in African countries,
including civil registration and vital
statistics…”

           African Development Bank
                                          27
28
“It is important that countries
recognize that civil registration is a
developmental and human rights issue
and our ability to monitor progress in
this regard will depend on functional
vital registration system and availability
of reliable and timely vital statistics”

   Pali J. Lehohla, Statistician General,
                             South Africa
                                         29
Regional Workshop on Civil Registration
  and Vital Statistics Systems in Africa
 June 2009 - Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
                                       30

								
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