Slide 1 - Western Democrats

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How the West was (will be!)
Won with Women
DNC WESTERN REGIONAL CAUCUS MEETING

Celinda Lake
Lake Research Partners
Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
www.lakeresearch.com
202.776.9066
Key Findings: The Abortion Issue

• Americans are against a ban on abortions and want to see Roe
upheld.

• Even more importantly, voters are tired of the abortion debate.

• Among voters, there is increased polarization on choice – with
Democrats and Independents remaining pro-choice and Republicans
anti-choice.

• Americans strongly believe in the importance of family planning as a
basic preventive measure. This sentiment crosses all demographic
and political lines and rises to the level of a core value.

2
Key Findings: Abortion in the 2010 Election

• While economic concerns clearly dominated the issue
agenda this cycle, late in the cycle choice played a strong
role in a number of hotly contested races and helped
swing the results in the progressive candidates’ favor.

• Voters often found it difficult to distinguish between
candidates’ positions on the economy, and were skeptical
of candidates’ positive records on the economy and
opponents’ negative records.

• Reproductive health and abortion often proved a clearer
and more believable distinction that helped disqualify
conservative opponents.
3
Key Findings: Framing the Abortion Issue

• Framing abortion within a broader discussion of reproductive health
is effective with voters. There is considerable consensus around
getting away from the focus on abortion and having a broader
discussion on reproductive health, which includes birth control,
comprehensive sex education, and improving maternal and childbirth
outcomes.

• It is also more effective to focus the message frame on women’s
personal decision-making with their doctors rather than focusing on
the importance of keeping abortion legal. Telling politicians to stay
out of these personal decisions also works.

4
Key Findings: Funding for Planned Parenthood
and Public Funding for Abortion

• After the intense coverage of the budget debate and
federal funding for Planned Parenthood, two-thirds of
Americans want to continue federal funding for the
organization.

• However, the public tends to oppose public funding for
abortion, though the numbers vary by state, and a slight
majority of voters say the health care reform plan should
also prohibit taxpayer money from funding abortions.

5
Key Findings: Winning Tough Races in 2010

• In Maine 01, Chellie Pingree faced a challenge from anti-choice challenger
Dean Scontras. In her pro-choice district, the campaign was able to use
choice to help portray Scontras as out of touch and tied to the national right-
wing movement, thereby inoculating against his message of change and
bringing a fresh voice to the district.

• In Gerry Connolly’s bid for re-election (VA 11), the campaign used
reproductive rights issues as a critique of challenger Keith Fimian.
– Fimian opposes stem cell research, believes pharmacists have the right to refuse
to fill prescriptions with which they disagree, and opposes abortion in nearly all
cases.
– The campaign ran an ad with a nurse who called Fimian out as right-wing and
extreme on these issues and the DCCC reinforced this message with a couple of
mailers which reminded voters that Fimian’s agenda is not what the voters
wanted, especially when jobs and the economy should be the focus.
– Messaging on choice and reproductive rights was consistently the best testing
positioning coming down the stretch and made a difference in this race.

6
In 2010, embattled Senate candidates drew
distinctions using choice and reproductive health.

• Choice was also a significant issue in several key Senate
races, where Democratic incumbents were in close races
with well-funded Tea Party and Sarah Palin backed
candidates.
• In Colorado and Nevada, the Bennet and Reid campaigns
used choice as an area to draw dramatic differences
between themselves and their Republican challengers.
• Bennet won thanks to a 17 point gender gap, and voters
rejected fetal personhood by wide margins.
• Reid won women voters in Nevada by 11 points, defeating
staunchly anti-choice Sharron Angle.

7
High-profile races in California and Washington also
hinged on choice.

• Washington Senator Patty Murray’s campaign ran ads to
paint her opponent Dino Rossi as anti-choice. On election
day, she had a 12 point gender gap and women helped
her secure victory.
• In California, Planned Parenthood engaged in efforts to
educate voters, particularly independent and moderate
women, about both Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman’s
views on abortion and reproductive health. Both Senator
Barbara Boxer and Governor-elect Jerry Brown had a 16-
point gender gap.

8
Planned Parenthood of Northern New England also
used choice to define a conservative opponent.

• The race between Democrat Peter Shumlin and
Republican Brian Dubie was close, and Dubie’s position on
reproductive health issues was not well-defined in voters’
minds, especially since he followed a more pro-choice
Republican Governor.
• Our research for Planned Parenthood of Northern New
England showed that support for Dubie eroded
significantly when voters were informed about this stance
on choice and that independents were particularly likely
to move away from him.
• Planned Parenthood used this information effectively in
their outreach to voters and helped ensure Shumlin’s
close victory, where the margin among independents was
key.
9
Key Findings: 2010 vs. the
Presidential

• The demographic differences between the 2010 and 2008
electorate are glaring. The 2010 electorate was older,
more conservative, and less racially or ethnically diverse –
favoring Republicans. Democrats were hurt because of
lower turnout among younger voters, unmarried women
and African Americans – even as those groups stayed in
the Democratic column (though by a smaller margin than
2008).

• The electorate in 2010 was also focused on the immediacy
of the recession, and pushed other issues to the state and
local level.
10
Abortion in 2011

• Voters want the focus on the economy.

• These legislative sessions have not - for the most part –
reflected well on anyone involved.

• The abortion argument has helped illustrate that
legislatures have gone too far or are not focusing on the
things they were elected to do.

11
The Politics of Abortion and Choice Issues

There is a sharp partisan divide on the issue of
abortion.
There is a sharp partisan divide on the issue of abortion, with
over half of Democrats saying it should be available,
Independents identifying more in the middle, and a strong
majority of Republicans identifying as anti-choice.
Choice Stance Note: Gallup
choice data
tends to be
Legal in all 38 pretty
29 conservative.
circumstances 13

Legal in most 15
9
circumstances 5

Legal in only a few 30
42
circumstances 45

Illegal in all 14
18
circumstances 34

Republicans Independents Democrats
Do you think abortions should be legal under any circumstances, legal only under certain circumstances, or illegal in all 13
circumstances? If legal under certain circumstances: Do you think abortion should be legal in most circumstances or only a
few?
Source: Gallup. May 5-8, 2011. 1018 adults nationwide.
Voters are divided on who would do a better job on the issue
of abortion – the Democrats or the Republicans.

Better job with issue of abortion

35 37

23 25 6
1
Democrats Republicans Both Neither Don't know
better better

(Now I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the 14
Republicans would do a better job with this issue. If you do not know, just tell me and we will move on to the next
item.)...Abortion
Source: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. Democracy Corps. October 9-11,2010. based on 928 likely voters nationwide.
A majority of Americans say that abortion will be moderately
important or not important at all to their votes for President
next year.

Importance of Abortion in 2012 Presidential Vote

57
-14
43

32
20
Important Not important

CNN. June 3-7, 2011. 1015 adults nationwide
15

Do you like the placement and size of the question text here? [IF YES/NO ASK:] Do you feel that way strongly or not so
strongly?
A solid majority of Americans would want the next Supreme
Court justice to vote to uphold Roe if that case came before
the court again.

Vote to Uphold Roe or Overturn It

59
+21

Uphold Overturn No opinion
The Supreme Court legalized abortion 37 years ago in the ruling known as Roe versus Wade. If that case came before the 16
court again, would you want the next justice to vote to uphold Roe versus Wade, or vote to overturn it?
Source: ABC News/Washington Post, April 22 - April 25, 2010 and based on 1,001 adults nationwide
There is considerable consensus around getting away from the focus on
abortion and having a broader discussion on reproductive health, which
includes birth control, comprehensive sex education, and improving
maternal and childbirth outcomes.
Please tell me if you agree or
disagree with the following Elected officials should focus on broader context, not abortion
statement: While the current
political debate focuses too much 71
on abortion, there is a much
broader discussion that needs to
happen around reproductive
health. We may have different
opinions about abortion, so 48
rather than continuing to argue
about this one issue, our elected
officials should focus on the
broader context like providing 23
greater access to birth control, 51
teaching comprehensive sex
education, and improving 5
maternal health and childbirth 17
outcomes. These are issues that
will allow us to come together.
Agree Disagree Don't know

This statement resonates with voters in the West in particular. Three
quarters (74 percent) agree and 60 percent agree strongly.
17

Source: CCMC October 31st through November 2nd, 2010. The survey reached a total of 1,200 likely, registered voters nationwide. 1,000
interviews among voters who were reached on landline phones and an oversample of 200 interviews among voters reached on cell phones
By a slight majority, Americans disapprove of Republicans
passing new federal laws that put greater restrictions on
abortion.

Passing New Federal Laws the Put Greater Restriction on Abortion -
Approval
Among Democrats:
52 24 percent approve,
68 percent disapprove

40 Among Independents:
38 percent approve,
53 percent disapprove
Among Republicans:
65 percent approve,
28 percent disapprove
9

Approve Disapprove Don't know

(Suppose the Republicans win control of one or both houses of Congress in this year's (2010) elections and try to do each of 18
the following after they take control in January. Please say whether you would approve or disapprove of that
action.)...Passing new federal laws that put greater restrictions on abortion
Source: Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. October 21-24,2010. based on 1,006 adults nationwide.
Americans strongly believe in the importance of family planning as a
basic preventive measure. This consensus crosses all demographic and
political lines.

Importance of Family Planning Services

84
+70

67 14
8
Important Not important

How important do you think family planning services, including birth control and contraception, are to
basic preventive health care services -- very important, somewhat important, a little important, or not
important at all? 19

Source: CCMC/NFPRHA survey among 1,009 adults 18 years of age and older nationwide in the
continental United States. Conducted May 19-22, 2011.
In an engaged debate, support for maintaining access to family planning
outweighs an argument on the current budget crisis by two to one.

Now let me read you two
statements and tell me which one Engaged Debate on Birth Control Availability
comes CLOSER to your own point
of view. 60 +29
Statement A: (Some
people/Other people) say that
everyone has a right to safe,
affordable, and available family
planning services, including birth 31
control and contraception.

Statement B: (Some
people/Other people) say that we
are in a budget crisis and now is 9
not the time to be spending
taxpayer money on family
planning services. This is a
personal decision. Everyone has a right Budget crisis Neith/Both/Uns
20

Source: CCMC/NFPRHA survey among 1,009 adults 18 years of age and older nationwide in the
continental United States. Conducted May 19-22, 2011.
Attitudes Toward Planned Parenthood

A majority of voters in the West hold favorable
views of Planned Parenthood.

21
Voters hold strongly favorable views of Planned Parenthood, while they are
divided in response to National Right to Life.

Favorability of Organizations - Pre Dial

American Red Cross 61 89

Planned Parenthood 38 68

National Right to Life 26 51
Somewhat favorable
Very favorable

Please indicate if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very
unfavorable impression of each of the following.

Source: Planned Parenthood. May 25-June 5, 2011. based on 2050 registered voters nationwide
Planned Parenthood garners strong favorability ratings
across regions.

Planned Parenthood by Region – Percent Favorable (Percent Very
Favorable)
Voters overall 68% (38%)

Northeast 75% (42%)

Midwest 65% (36%)

South 64% (38%)

West 73% (38%)

Please indicate if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very
unfavorable impression of each of the following.

Source: Planned Parenthood. May 25-June 5, 2011. based on 2050 registered voters nationwide
Additionally, about half of voters overall – as well as 57
percent in the West – say they trust Planned Parenthood.

Trust in Planned Parenthood – Percent Rating “100” (Percent “51-
100”)
Voters overall 21% (51%)

Northeast 25% (55%)

Midwest 21% (52%)

South 18% (46%)

West 22% (57%)

Now, looking at some of the same organizations, please rate your trust of each one on a scale from 0 to
100, where 0 means you don’t trust them at all and 100 means you trust them a great deal. Please put
101 if you have no impression of the organization and 102 if you have never heard of the organization.

Source: Planned Parenthood. May 25-June 5, 2011. based on 2050 registered voters nationwide
Federal Funding and Planned Parenthood

Majorities believe the federal government should
continue to fund Planned Parenthood.

25
By an overwhelming margin voters oppose ending/banning
all federal funding for Planned Parenthood.

There is a proposal to end all government funding for Planned Parenthood. Do you favor or oppose this
proposal to end all government funding for Planned Parenthood? / There is a proposal to ban Planned Parenthood from
participating in any government-funded health care programs. Do you favor or oppose this proposal to ban Planned 26
Parenthood from participating in any government-funded health care programs? SPLIT SAMPLED QUESITON COMBINED
Source: Hart Research on behalf of Planned Parenthood. April 4-7, 2011. based on 1,247 voters nationwide.
Half of voters oppose banning Planned Parenthood from receiving
reimbursement from the government for health care services and 55
percent oppose ending all government funding for the organization.
Attitudes on De-Funding Planned Parenthood
Mean

Ban PP from receiving
reimbursement 17 11 9 13 50 4.3

End all govertnment
funding for PP 17 10 6 12 55 4.0

10 8 to 9 6 to 7 5 0 to 4
In the West, 54 percent of voters oppose banning Planned Parenthood from receiving
reimbursement and 57 percent oppose ending all government funding for Planned Parenthood.
On a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means you strongly oppose and 10 means you strongly favor – do you favor or oppose a proposal to
ban Planned Parenthood from receiving reimbursement from the government for health care services they provide? (Split sampled
question) On a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means you strongly oppose and 10 means you strongly favor – do you favor or oppose a 27
proposal to end all government funding for Planned Parenthood? (Split sampled question)

Source: Planned Parenthood. May 25-June 5, 2011. based on 2050 registered voters nationwide
Participants in focus groups are not surprised about the
discussion of ending federal funding of Planned Parenthood,
but they tend to think it is a bad idea.
• “There is a lot of misappropriation of funds across the board in our
entire government and I can’t believe that Planned Parenthood is
the maker or breaker of it all.” - Non-college woman, VA
• “I think that we need to be advocates and go to our senator and
congressman and put them on TV and say what are you going to do
about the people who need the services. What are you going to do if
you take the money away?” – African American woman ,VA
• “If they are a legitimate, certified doctor and are performing the
necessary service, I don’t see any problem with them getting
reimbursed as long as it falls into Medicare/Medicaid policies. You
know as long as they are not doing fraudulently, I don’t care who the
doctor is, whether they work for Planned Parenthood or you know…”
– Non-college man, MO
• “I think this is a very easy target when you are talking about slashing
public funding. Because a large part of the country doesn’t want to
support them financially.” – College woman, MO
28
If Planned Parenthood had to curb services due to a lack of federal
funding, many focus group participants say that there would be
consequences like negative health outcomes, closing Planned
Parenthood and reducing services, and increases of lots of long term
costs.
• “Well if you now aren’t getting any government funding to subsidize your
expenses, they are going to have to pass those expenses along to your
customers. And if your customers are the low income of our society, they are
not going to be able to afford your services. So that’s one way to shut them
down. Shut down their government funding and then they raise their prices
and then they shut their own doors.” - Non-college woman, VA
• “It’s a little scary because I think some people are actually not abusing it and
some people actually need it; the resources there.” – Latina, CA
• “Well the first thing that comes to my mind is you know how are we going to
teach young adults or high school students you know about safe sex you
know. What’s going to be our alternative?” – Latino, CA
• “I think it’s wrong. As she said, if people are not getting birth control, the
taxpayer will end up paying for their children.” – Non-college woman, VA
• “It’s like a ripple effect. If you are ending Planned Parenthood, then you
need to increase your hospitals, increase mental places, increase in the
funding that you are going to pay for other things because it’s a trickledown
effect. When you cut off one thing, it’s almost like mechanics...when you
make one position whole, the weakest link is going to be the ones that fall
again. So by taking that away, you are not helping the economy. Actually,
you are hurting it in the long run.”– African American woman ,VA
29
Even so, six out of ten Americans oppose using public funds
for abortions when the woman cannot afford it.

Using Public Funds for Abortions - Woman Cannot Afford It

3 1
Favor Oppose (Indifferent) No opinion

Generally speaking, are you in favor of using public funds for abortions when the woman cannot afford it, or are you 30
opposed to that?
Source: CNN. April 9-10, 2011. based on 824 adults nationwide.
And while answers vary by wording, a slight majority of
voters say the health care reform plan should also prohibit
taxpayer money from funding abortions.
(Now I would like to read you
several pairs of statements that
might be made by policymakers
about health care, and have you Health care and covering abortion services
tell me, for each pair, which one
you agree with more.) Statement
52
A: Congressman A says that -11
abortion is an important health 41
care option for many women, and
if a woman and her doctor decide
that an abortion is appropriate,
her insurance should cover the
procedure even if it is paid for by
the government. Statement B:
Congressman B says that, since
millions of Americans believe 41 7
abortion is the taking of a human 28
life, any health care reform plan
should prohibit taxpayer money
from funding abortions. Insurance should cover Prohibit taxpayer money Not sure
from funding

Source: Resurgent Republic. January 12-16, 2011. based on 1000 registered voters nationwide
The following messages are most effective in making
the case against defunding:

• More than 90% of PP work involves preventive services that help
women, families, and communities stay healthy. These services
include life-saving cancer screenings, breast health care, prenatal
services, well-woman exams, contraceptive services, and prevention
and treatment of sexually transmitted diseases.
• Planned Parenthood plays an important role in reducing the number
of unintended pregnancies by providing access to education,
information, and affordable contraception.
• Especially during this economic recession with unemployment and
uninsured Americans rising, more women are turning to PP health
centers for trusted, high-quality affordable health care. If forced to
close, many of these women would have no other affordable option.
• Planned Parenthood plays an important role in reducing the number
of unintended pregnancies and the need for abortion by providing
access to education, information, and affordable contraception.

32
Framing abortion within a broader discussion of reproductive health is effective with
voters. There is considerable consensus around getting away from the focus on
abortion and having a broader discussion on reproductive health. It is also more
effective to focus the message frame on women’s personal decision-making with their
doctors rather than focusing on the importance of keeping abortion legal. Telling
politicians to stay out of these personal decisions also works.

• In research we conducted for the Reproductive Health Technologies Project around
evaluating reactions to and effectiveness of different language and messages for
elected officials to use in communicating their position on abortion, we found that
personal decision-making, prevention, finding common ground and solutions, and
showing empathy for decision-making around abortion are strong message frames.
Mentioning the “woman” as a decision-maker also increase the pro-choice support.
“Choice” is less strong than “personal decision making.”

• Voters in this research respond very favorably to language that acknowledges
conflicted feelings about abortion, that stresses the importance of people making
these decisions based on their own situations.
– I can accept someone’s decision to end a pregnancy, even if I wouldn’t make the
same decision myself.
– Accepting someone’s decision does not mean we have to agree with it.
– A woman should have the right to make her own personal, private decisions about
abortion without the government interfering.
– Respecting a woman’s choice even if you wouldn’t make the same decision.
– I may not like abortion, but it is not my place to tell someone else what to do.
33
– I may not like abortion, but it should be safe and legal.
Personal decision-making, prevention, empathy, finding common ground
and solutions, and showing empathy for decision-making around
abortion are strong message frames.

• Particularly compelling language to voters across the board – strongly pro-choice and
conflicted voters alike – includes:

Personal Decision-Making
– Even if we have difficulty understanding why, that’s not a reason to impose our own beliefs on
someone else. It is better that each person be able to make her own decision. A woman must
be able to make her own personal, private decisions about abortion without politicians
interfering.
– Women’s lives matter. Respect for women, respect for their decisions about their health and
families, respect for their basic rights, matters. Ultimately, these must be private decisions,
not political ones.
– Most important decisions in life trigger conflicting, even some negative emotions – and
abortion is no exception. But this doesn’t mean politicians should make their decision for
them.

Common Ground
– Yes, I support abortion rights, but I also believe we can find common ground to reduce the
need for abortions in America while still protecting a woman’s right to have one. Our country
wants unity, not division. 34
Case Study: California

In 2010, choice played a role in Democratic victories in
California.
While Democrats and Independents are pro-choice, Republicans remain
anti-choice, continuing the trend of increased polarization around choice
and reproductive health.

Source: Vermont: Planned Parenthood of Northern New England. 400 likely voters. September 2010
California: Planned Parenthood Action Fund. 600 likely voters. July 2010.
Voters in California were not sure about Whitman or
Fiorina’s views on the issue of abortion.

37
Note: darker colors indicate intensity
Source: Planned Parenthood Action Fund. 600 likely voters. July 2010.
The best criticism of Fiorina was that she would criminalize
doctors for performing an abortion and women for having
one.

38
Note: darker colors indicate intensity
Source: Planned Parenthood Action Fund. 600 likely voters. July 2010.
After hearing statements on Fiorina’s anti-choice views and a message on
Boxer’s role as an advocate for women and reproductive health, voters favor
Boxer. With a record on abortion and reproductive health in stark contrast to
Boxer, voters found Fiorina’s choice stance highly problematic.

39
Note: darker colors indicate intensity
Source: Planned Parenthood Action Fund. 600 likely voters. July 2010.
Statement about Boxer around Choice

• Barbara Boxer has been a champion for women’s health
and for reproductive health services all her years in office.
No one has been a stronger voice for a woman’s right to
choose [split sample test: and that is why Planned
Parenthood endorses Barbara Boxer for Senator].

Source: Planned Parenthood Action Fund. 600 likely voters. July 2010.
The best critique against Whitman was that she refuses to protect state
funding for California’s effective family planning services and programs.
Voters know California faces budget cuts, but they didn’t want to see
family planning lose funding under a Whitman administration.

41
Note: darker colors indicate intensity
ource: Planned Parenthood Action Fund. 600 likely voters. July 2010.
Brown was helped in the ballot by a positive message on his pro-choice stance
and his leadership in starting California’s family planning services, as well as the
negative statements on Whitman and her views on women’s health.

42
Note: darker colors indicate intensity
Source: Planned Parenthood Action Fund. 600 likely voters. July 2010.
Statement about Brown around Choice

• Jerry Brown has been consistently pro-choice and was a
leader in starting and protecting our state’s family
planning services, including cancer screening and
reproductive health services [split sample test: and that is
why Planned Parenthood endorses Jerry Brown for
Governor].

Source: Planned Parenthood Action Fund. 600 likely voters. July 2010.
Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
LakeResearch.com
202.776.9066