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					Orion Overview
                Active Structure




We build an internal model of the world, so we can predict future
behaviour - we make the model out of active structure so it is
interoperable with other structure - we elaborate the structure over
time - we pass complex messages through the structure - why not
make machines that can do all these things too
               ORION

Knowledge about the problem area is turned
into a structure, made up of variables,
operators and links.
The structure is active, undirected, long-
lived, extensible and self-modifiable
                    A Simple Structure


The structure can propagate a
wide range of entities through its
connections, and the information
can flow in any direction, and the
operators can operate on analytic
or experiential information, and
the structure can change itself.
The System as a Thinking Tool




                             Orion

Users can turn what they know into a shareable and reusable
piece of knowledge by describing relations among objects - the
system will use the relations any way it needs to, when it needs
to.

The user can refine their thinking by observing a model of it in
operation.
Combining Knowledge Domains

            Airframe




           Performance




            Avionics



 Assemble Pieces of Knowledge Into an Active Object
         Which Itself Can be Assembled...
          Structural Backtrack

Some decisionmaking needs to be tentative...

Backtrack allows the system to try something, observe
the result, and then proceed further, or undo it and try
something else.

While trying something, it may need to erect new
structure - “to build a castle in the air” - then undo all
that as well. This is the “constructionist” approach to
problem solving.

Structural backtrack relies on all of the states being in
the structure - no stack, no algorithm, nothing else.
Using the System
Logic Editor - Used to enter declarative knowledge in textual form. The text is
immediately transformed into active model structure - what you see here is a
textual view of the structure.
                           Network Display
The user can:
• trace the structure of the
network
• observe the values in
particular components
• set and unset values
• trace the source of
inconsistencies
• debug the network by halting
propagation and observing
states
            Analysis and Visualization



                      Drawing
                      Editor


Stochastic Editor
                                 Variable Directory



  List
 Editor
                                   Data Miner

One of the shortcomings of existing data
mining technologies is that in order to use
the findings, the user needs to understand
them.

The reason is that the technologies used for
mining are different to those used in
operational systems.

With Orion, the same technology is used for
both tasks. The Miner actually morphs
newly found correlations in the data into an
active component of the operational
system.

The system can start with mined data, then
“learn on the run” from new transactions.
Additional tools and facilities
• Structural debugger

• Script editor

• Control Panel

• Simulator

• Graphing and Gantt charts

• Time Series Analysis

• Embedded System
                 Applications
• Strategic Planning

• Program/Project Management - development projects

• Scheduling - Aircraft maintenance and operations

• Analysis - Financial, Engineering, Marketing, Risk

• Simulation - Dynamic Financial Analysis

• Knowledge Representation - support of complex interactions

• Information Extraction from text
Waves of Technology for a Telco

ISDN   Eng Infra     Market                  Runoff


Frame
Relay        Eng    Infra           Market       Runoff




Broad
Band               Eng      Infra            Market



Competitor
         Development Projects
Development projects, where what is being developed is
changing as the project progresses, are the most appropriate
targets for the kind of holistic approach the technology supports.

A model of the end product becomes part of the project plan.
               Model the Problem Area
The model takes the form of the business structure it represents. It is
“alive” all the time, every piece of it is visible and accessible.
     Programmatic approach
                                                                    Orion

                                                     Commercial
                               Household              Property



                              Quota Share                 Surplus
                                treaty                     treaty



                                                      Risk Access
                                                         treaty




                                            Catastrophe
                                               treaty




                                        Business Domain
Earthquake Knowledge
                                                Model Structure
                                                                     Acceleration attenuation based on
            Find distance between site and                           magnitude, distance and local site
            Epicenter, local conditions, etc.                        conditions
                                                   Attenuation
                     Greece Info
                       (GIS)                                                           Recorders

                                                                 Intensity/
           Events
                                                                  Damage
                                                                  Relations between acceleration,
                                                                  intensity and damage ratio
                     XML                  Event

                                                                        Relations between magnitude and
                                                                        frequency, bulding type, number of
                                                    Frequency/          floors and natuarl frequency,
                                                   Amplification        including comparison and
                                                                        amplification estimates
           Retail Market Analysis
                                 Category


             Brands                     Type                       Pack

                                            Granule
    Brand1 Brand2               Freeze                     200g
                                                                          500g

                                               200g FD     200g Gra          500g Gra



Product1
                                                          Stores
               Product8   Product21                                              Price
                                      Population
                                                                      Region
                                                    Distribution




           A Fast-Changing Analytic Environment
A network of
operators                          The quake
linking parts of
speech is
being used to
disambiguate
the sentence
before
integrating it
into knowledge
about
earthquakes.                                  struck
This part of the
network is
dynamic, and
will disappear
on completion.


                   The quake, with an estimated magnitude of 4.75, struck Athens around 0725.
   The Holistic Approach
                                   Event

                       Semantics

                Grammar

            Tags         Collocator


    Words                             Knowledge

All the processes proceed simultaneously and
synergistically, opportunistically using any information
coming from any direction to shrink the ambiguity
Police Intelligence - An incoming event may cause
     generation and analysis of other events
                  What’s the Point?
We need to build structure to handle every state
transition - we can’t use the crutches of program stacks
or ‘directed dataflow’ or ‘natural order of calculation’.

If we do this, we can handle complex and dynamic
interactions beyond the reach of programming

The structure can be modified on the run, it can see
activity within itself, it can adapt and extend itself or
merge with other structure, it can backtrack out of a
scenario it has constructed and analysed.

				
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posted:8/26/2012
language:English
pages:23