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					                          Norges Bank




Executive Board meeting
    27 September 2006




                                    1
                                                                      Norges Bank


                                  Mainland GDP
Seasonally adjusted, annualised growth on previous half year. Per cent

   5                                                                     5
            With electricity
   4        Without electricity                                          4

   3                                                                     3

   2                                                                     2

   1                                                                     1

   0                                                                     0

   -1                                                                    -1

   -2                                                                    -2
        1st half 03           1st half 04   1st half 05   1st half 06

                                                          Source: Statistics Norway   2
                                                                                          Norges Bank

                                Unemployed
            Percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted.
                     January 1990 – August 2006
10                                                                                                  10
                      Registered unemployed and
                      on labour market programmes
9                                                                                                   9

8                                                                                                   8

7       LFS unemployment                                                                            7

6                                                                                                   6

5                                                                                                   5
        Registered unemployed
4                                                                                                   4

3                                                                                                   3

2                                                                                                   2
 1990   1992     1994       1996      1998       2000         2002         2004          2006

                                              Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour   3
                                                                                                     Norges Bank

                           Number employed
       Figures from LFS1). In thousands. Monthly figures.
                  January 1999 – June 2006

2360                                                                                                 2360

2340                                                                                                 2340

2320                                                                                                 2320

2300                                                                                                 2300

2280                                                                                                 2280

2260                                                                                                 2260

2240      1)The restructuring of the LFS has resulted in a break in the time series
                                                                                                     2240
          between 2005 and 2006.
2220                                                                                                 2220
   1999        2000      2001        2002         2003        2004        2005          2006
                                                                                      Source: Statistics Norway   4
                                                                      Norges Bank

         Capacity utilisation - regional network
Share of enterprises that will find it difficult to accommodate a rise
                       in demand. Per cent
80                                                                    80

70                                                                    70

60                                                                    60

50                                                                    50

40                                                                    40

30                                                                    30

20                                                                    20

10                                                                    10

 0                                                                    0
     Jan 05   Apr 05   Jul 05   Oct 05   Jan 06   Apr 06   Jul 06


                                                            Source: Norges Bank   5
                                                                    Norges Bank


 Order stocks and new orders in manufacturing
            Index. 1995 = 100. 1993 Q1 - 2006 Q2
250                                                                  250


                                     New orders
200                                                                  200



150                                                                  150



100                                                                  100
                          Order stocks


50                                                                   50
  1993   1995   1997    1999      2001       2003   2005

                                                    Source: Statistics Norway   6
                                                                       Norges Bank


Investment intentions survey. Oil and gas activities
        Assumed and actual investment. In billions of NOK

 110                                                                     110

 100                           2006                                      100
                                                      2005
  90                                                                     90
        2007
  80                                         2004                        80

  70                                                      2003           70

  60                                                                     60
                                             2002
  50                                                                     50

  40                                                                     40

  30                                                                     30

  20                                                                     20
       May     Aug       Nov    Feb   May   Aug     Nov        Feb
         Previous year                Same year             Final figures
                                                          Source: Statistics Norway   7
                                                                                Norges Bank


                          Credit growth
12-month change. Per cent. January 2000 - July 2006 (C3 to June)

30                                                                                 30
             Total credit
25           enterprises(C3)                                                       25
                                                             Domestic credit
20                                                           enterprises (C2)      20

15                                                                                 15
                        Domestic credit to households (C2)

10                                                                                 10

5                                                                                  5

0                                                                                  0

-5                                                                                 -5
 2000     2001      2002        2003        2004        2005          2006
                                                                      Source: Norges Bank   8
                                                                                    Norges Bank


                   Housing market
     January 2001 – August 2006 (housing starts to June)

35                                                                                   35
                             Housing starts
30                       (number of 1000s in the                                     30
                            last 12 months)
25                                                                                   25

20                                                 House prices (NEF)
                                                                                     20
                                                 (12-month rise. Per cent)
15                                                                                   15

10                                                                                   10

5                                                                                    5

0                                                                                    0

-5                                                                                   -5
  2001     2002     2003            2004             2005            2006

                    Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), 9
                    Association of Real Estate Agency Firms (EFF), ECON and Finn.no
                                                                                                       Norges Bank

                                          CPI-ATE 1)
Total and by supplier sector2). Actual inflation and projections from
  IR 2/06. 12-month change. Per cent. July 2003 – August 2006
 3                                                                                                       3
                         Goods and services produced in Norway (0.7)
 2                                                                                                       2
 1                                                                                                       1
                                                CPI-ATE
 0                                                                                                       0
-1                                                                                                       -1
-2                                              Imported consumer goods (0.3)                            -2
-3                                                                                                       -3
-4                                                                                                       -4
-5                                                                                                       -5
  Jul 03         Jan 04        Jul 04       Jan 05         Jul 05       Jan 06        Jul 06
 1)CPI-ATE    adjusted for the estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care rates from January 2006.
 2) Norges   Bank's calculations.


                                                                     Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank   10
                                                                                                       Norges Bank


                      Different indicators of inflation
         12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – August 2006
6                                                                                                        6


                               CPI
4                                                                                                        4


                                               Weighted median
2                                                                                                        2

                                                                                 CPI-ATE1)
                  20 per cent trimmed mean
0                                                                                                        0



-2                                                                                                       -2
  2002                  2003                2004                 2005                 2006
    1) CPI-ATE:
              CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. A further adjustment is made for the
     estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care rates from January 2006.

                                                                   Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank    11
                                                                                                       Norges Bank

                                           CPI-ATE1)
                 Actual inflation and projections from IR 2/06.
                4-quarter change. Per cent. 2004 Q1 - 2009 Q4
 4                                                                                                    4
                                              30% 50% 70% 90%



 3                                                                                                    3



 2                                                                                                    2



 1                                                                                                    1
                                                 Average 12-month rise July-August


 0                                                                                                    0
  2004            2005            2006           2007            2008            2009
1) CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. A further adjustment is made for
the estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care rates from January 2006.

                                                                     Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank   12
                                                                    Norges Bank


                  Inflation expectations
        Economists              Employer and employee organisations
4                           4   4                                       4



3                           3   3
                                           5 years ahead
                                                                        3
       5 years ahead


2           2 years ahead   2   2          2 years ahead                2

           1 year ahead
                                                1 year ahead

1                           1   1                                       1



0                         0     0                         0
 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006        2002 2003 2004 2005 2006


                                                           Source: TNS Gallup   13
                                                                                    Norges Bank


                               CPI/HICP
          12-month change. January 1997 – August 2006
5                                                                                          5


4                               US                                                         4


3               Euro area                                                                  3


2                                                                                          2


1                                                                                          1

                                             UK
0                                                                                          0


-1                                            Japan                                        -1
            Sweden
-2                                                                                         -2
  1997   1998   1999    2000   2001   2002     2003      2004      2005       2006

                                         Sources: Reuters EcoWin and national statistical offices 14
                                                                                            Norges Bank



              Growth forecast Consensus Forecasts

                       2006                                               2007
12                                                  12
     forecast August                                     forecast August
10                                                  10
     forecast September                                  forecast September

 8                                                   8


 6                                                   6


 4                                                   4


 2                                                   2


 0                                                   0
     US   Euro area   UK   Japan   Sweden   China        US   Euro area   UK    Japan   Sweden   China



                                                                          Source: Consensus Forecasts    15
                                                                      Norges Bank

                          US - Housing market
              12-month change. 3-month moving average.
           January 2000 – August 2006 (house prices to July)
20                                                                        20

15                                                                        15
          Price new dwellings
10                                                                        10

 5                                                                        5

 0                                                                        0

 -5                                                                       -5

-10                                                                       -10
          Number of housing starts
-15                                                                       -15

-20                                                                       -20
   2000        2001         2002     2003   2004   2005     2006

                                                          Source: Reuters EcoWin   16
                                                                     Norges Bank


     Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices
 Daily figures. USD per barrel. January 2002 - September 2006

85                                                                    85

75                                           22 June (IR 2/06)        75

65                                                                    65
                                              25 September 2006
55                                                                    55

45                                                                    45

35                                                                    35

25                                                                    25

15                                                                    15
 2002   2003    2004   2005    2006   2007       2008       2009

                                          Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank   17
                                                                   Norges Bank

                        Metal prices
        USD. Indices, 1 January 2001 = 100. Daily figures.
              1 January 2001 - 25 September 2006

500                                                                        500
                                                        Copper
400                                                                        400


300                                                                        300
                                        Nickel

200                                                                        200


100                                                      Aluminium         100
                                        Zinc

 0                                                                         0
 2001      2002       2003       2004          2005      2006

                                                      Source: Reuters EcoWin     18
                                                                  Norges Bank



            10-year yield in various countries
       Per cent. Weekly figures. Week 1 2003 – Week 38 2006
6                                                                    6
       Norway
                                                      US
                            UK
5                                                                    5



4                                                                    4

                                 Germany
3                                                                    3
                                             Sweden



2                                                                    2
2003             2004             2005         2006

                                                           Source: Bloomberg   19
                                                                           Norges Bank


                     Actual and expected key rates
                      as per IR 2/06 and 25 September 2006
6                                                                                6

5               UK                                                               5

4                                                                                4

3                                                                                3
           Sweden


2                                                                                2
    Euro area
                                                     25 September 2006
1                                                    IR 2/06 (28 June)           1
      US

0                                                     0
Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10
                                                     Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank   20
                                                                                                      Norges Bank

                   3-month interest rate differential
              and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) 1)
                                       January 2002 – December 2009
         5                                                                                               85

         4                                       I-44                                                    88
                                                 (right-hand scale)

         3                                                                                               91

         2                                                             Average 1 – 25 September
                                                                                                         94

         1                                                                       25 September 06         97

         0                                                                                               100
                                                                                    28 June 06
              Weighted interest rate differential                                     (IR 2/06)
              (left-hand scale)
        -1                                                                                               103
          2002          2003         2004         2005      2006      2007      2008       2009

1)   A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone.                    Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank   21
                                                                                                      Norges Bank



                                 Krone exchange rate (I-44)
Historical developments and projections from five different Inflation Reports

          105                                                                                         105


          100                                                                                         100

                                                            IR 2/04
            95                                                                          IR 2/05       95
                                                                       IR 1/06


                                                                                    IR 3/05
            90                                                                                        90
                                                                        IR 2/06


            85                                                                                        85
              2002         2003        2004        2005     2006      2007   2008      2009


1)   A rising curve denotes an depreciation of the krone.                                     Source: Norges Bank 22
                                                                                                                    Norges Bank

Sight deposit rate in baseline scenario and market
  expectations regarding the sight deposit rate1)
                                    Per cent. 2006 Q3 – 2009 Q4
6                                                                                                                       6
                                                                                    Baseline scenario IR 2/06
5                                                                                                                       5
             Market IR 2/06

4                                                                Market expectations concerning the sight
                                                                                                                        4
                                                                                             deposit rate
3                              Market 25 September 2006
                                                                                                                        3

2                                                                                                                       2

    1) Derived from estimated forward rates. The sight deposit rate was reduced by a credit risk premium and
1   technical difference of 0.20 percentage point. The grey shaded interval shows the highest and lowest interest       1
    rates in the market's sight deposit rate scenario in the period 12 – 25 September 2006.


0                                                                                                                       0
Sep 06       Mar 07             Sep 07              Mar 08             Sep 08              Mar 09             Sep 09

                                                                                Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Norges Bank      23
                                                        Norges Bank



Monetary Policy Strategy - Inflation Report 2/06


• The Executive Board's assessment is that the sight
  deposit rate should be in the interval 2¾ - 3¾ per
  cent in the period to the publication of the next
  Inflation Report on 1 November 2006, conditional on
  economic developments that are broadly in line with
  the projections.
• The interest rate may gradually – in small, not too
  frequent steps – be brought back towards a more
  normal level.

                                                                 24
                          Norges Bank




Executive Board meeting
    27 September 2006




                                   25

				
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