schneider

Document Sample
schneider Powered By Docstoc
					25.10.2004 | Folie 1
Workshop on Review and Assessment of
                             European
                 Air Pollution Policies




                               25.10.2004 | Folie 2
                                     European
                         Air Pollution Policies


Assessment of health effects in an air
        pollution strategy

             Jürgen Schneider

         Umweltbundesamt GmbH

  Project Manager Air Quality and Health at
             WHO (2002-2004)
                                       25.10.2004 | Folie 3
                                          European
                              Air Pollution Policies



• Introduction
• Key new findings on the effect of air
      pollution on health (focussing on PM)
• Consequences for air pollution policy
• Conclusions




                                              25.10.2004 | Folie 4
                             European
                 Air Pollution Policies

Which effects?




                              25.10.2004 | Folie 5
                         8                                           beta
                             C


                                                   -4
                                                        -2
                                                             0
                                                                 2
                                                                        4
                                                                            6
                                                                                    8
                                                                                             10




                            an Mo
                               ad nt
                                   ia re
                                      n al
                                        C
                         C            To ities
                           oa            ro
                              ch            nt
                                 el
                                    la         o
                                        Va
                                     G lle
                                  Pi eor y
                                     tts gi
                                        bu a
                                       Bo rgh
                                                                                                  Associations with mortality have been




                                    Kn ston
                                        ox
                                     Po vil
                                        rt le
                               St St age
                                  eu Lo
                                      be uis
                       Ea                nv
                          st Lo To ille
                                                                                                  demonstrated for many different locations




                            er s pe
                              n A k
                                                                                                  with different methods and different scales




                            W Te nge a
                              ay nn le
                                 ne es s
                                      C s ee
                                        ou
                                           n
                                   Sa ty
                               M nt
                                  ex ia
                                            g
                                 C ico o
                                  ho C
                                       ng ity
                                          qi
                                            ng
                                 M
                                    el
                                       bo
                                          u
                                      Sy rne
                            W            dn
                              es
                           C t M ey
                             ze
                                ch idla
                                    R nd
                                                                            America




                                       ep s
                                                                            Summary




                                          ub
                                        Er lic
                                                                                                                                                Air Pollution Policies




25.10.2004 | Folie 6
                                                                                                                                                            European




                                           fu
                                              rt
                                                                            Estimate North
                                                                    European
                                                        Air Pollution Policies

Associations with mortality have been
demonstrated for many different locations
with different methods and different scales

                                                  1.3




                            Adjusted RR (95%CI)
                                                  1.2

                                                  1.1

                                                   1

                                                  0.9




                                                                             y




                                                                                          r
                                                           s




                                                                                                           s
                                                                                           e
                                                                           ar
                                                          se




                                                                                                           e
                                                                                        nc




                                                                                                        us
                                                                         on
                                                        au




                                                                                    ca




                                                                                                      ca
                                                                      ulm
                                                      lc




                                                                                   ng




                                                                                                   er
                                                    Al




                                                                   op




                                                                                 Lu




                                                                                                 th
                                                                 di




                                                                                                 lo
                                                               ar




                                                                                               Al
                                                               C

                                                                                         25.10.2004 | Folie 7
            European
Air Pollution Policies




             25.10.2004 | Folie 8
                                      European
                          Air Pollution Policies



Intervention studies:

• Coal ban in Dublin
  (Clancy et al., 2002)
• Utah valley
• Atlanta Olympics
• Hong Kong S emissions
• German re-unification


                                       25.10.2004 | Folie 9
              European
  Air Pollution Policies

New methods




               25.10.2004 | Folie 10
                                  European
                      Air Pollution Policies

Possible mechanisms




                                   25.10.2004 | Folie 11
                                                     European
                                         Air Pollution Policies

PM exposure is asscoiated with :

•   Arrythmia (Peters et al., 2000)
•   Influence on heart rate variability (Pope et al., 1999; Holguin et
    al., 2003,....)
•   Acute arterial vasoconstriction (Brook at el., 2002)
•   Increase of plasma viscosity (Peters et al., 1997)
•   Increase of C-reactive protein (Peters et al., 2001)
•   Myocardial infarction (Peters et al., 2001; D’Ippoliti et al., 2003)



                                                            25.10.2004 | Folie 12
                                                    European
                                        Air Pollution Policies

Some key findings of the systematic review on PM:

•   Links between AP and several effetcs have been strengthened
•   PM affects CV system
•   Effects at very low levels (previously considered safe)
•   Crucial components in tox studies: OC, UFP, HM
•   Crucial sources: prim. Combustion sources
•   LT effects outweigh ST effects
•   Small scale differences in air quality might result in different
    risks at least for some of the health outcomes


                                                           25.10.2004 | Folie 13
                                                                        European
                                                            Air Pollution Policies

How to quantify the impacts?

     Air pollution data          Population at risk
      Modeled levels*                 Overall
       (or monitored)            Susceptible groups




                    Exposure estimate                           Concentration
                                                             response function(s)


                                                          Background data
                                                           Mortality rates
                                                           Morbidity rates



                                        Impact estimate



                                                                                    25.10.2004 | Folie 14
                          European
              Air Pollution Policies


Annual
health loss
in DALYs




                           25.10.2004 | Folie 15
                                                    European
                                        Air Pollution Policies

Which indicator?

The Task Force on Health recommended
    to use PM2.5 as indicator for PM related mortality
    Apply the factor of the Pope et al. (2002) study for IAM

And noted that:
    different PM2.5 components may not be equally hazardous.
but concluded:
    it is not possible to quantify the relative importance of the
       main PM components for effects on human health at this
       stage.

                                                          25.10.2004 | Folie 16
                                                    European
                                        Air Pollution Policies



.. concentration –
    response relationships
    for different health
    endpoints provide
    more useful
    information for
                             response


    designing effective
    strategies to reduce
    adverse effects on
    human health.                                exposure

                                                  25.10.2004 | Folie 17
                                                                            European
                                                                Air Pollution Policies

Reduce hot spot exposure only?
                      20000


                      18000                                               base case
                                                                          No exceedance'
                      16000
                                                                          General reduction
                      14000
 Population exposed




                      12000


                      10000


                      8000


                      6000


                      4000


                      2000


                         0
                              10   15   20   25   30          35    40   45           50      55
                                                  PM10 µg/m3, JMW


                                                                                   25.10.2004 | Folie 18
                                                           Annual mean PM2.5 in µg/m3
                                 U
                                     m
                                      ea




                                                       0
                                                           10
                                                                  20
                                                                          30
                                                                                 40
                                                                                        50
                             U           (S
                              pp             w
                        G         sa
                                     la
                                               e)
                          ot
                            he           (S
                               nb            w
                                   ur          e)
                                      g
                                         (S
                             Al
                                ba           w
                                    ce         e)
                                       te
                                            (E
                                               s)
                                    Ta
                                       rtu
                               O             (F
                                  vi
                                     ed         l)
                             N          o
                                or          (E
                                   w           s)
                                     ic
                                        h
                                           (U
                                  Er           K)
                                     fu
                             G          rt
                               al          (G
                                 da            e)
                                     ka
                                         o
                              Ip            (E
                                 sw            s)
                                     ic
                                        h
                                           (U
                                H              K)
                                   ue
                                      lv
                                         a
                                            (E
                                 Ba            s)
                                     se
                                         l(
                                             Ch
                                   Pa             )
                                       ri s
                             G               (F
                                re              r)
                                   no
                                       bl
                              An          e
                                             (F
                                  tw            r)
                                     er
                           Ba           p
                               rc           (B
                                  el           e)
                                    on
                             An         a
                                            (E
                                tw             s)
                                    er
                                       p
                                          I(
                                              B
                                    Pa e)
                                                                                             One limit value for the whole of Europe?




                                        vi
                                           a
                                              (It
                                  Ve               )
                                      ro
                                         na
                                              (I
                                     Tu t)
                                         rin
                                              (I t
                                                  )
                                                                                                                                        Air Pollution Policies




25.10.2004 | Folie 19
                                                                                                                                                    European
                                  European
                      Air Pollution Policies

Peaks or long-term?




                                   25.10.2004 | Folie 20
                                Air quality and health

Conclusions
• Air pollution still affects your health!
• Reduction of exposure of the overall
       population is crucial!
• For PM: Chronic effect on mortality seem to
       outweigh acute effects – but its not the
       only effect
• Those exposed at hot spots seem to have a
       higher risk
• Additional insights will support to further
       refine strategies (PM monit, health,..) 25.10.2004 | Folie 21
                         Air quality and health

Open questions
• How to combine different tools effectively
     (maximum benefit)?
• How to combine the different scales
     effectively?
• How to chose the ambition level?
• How to balance the risk?




                                               25.10.2004 | Folie 22

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:11
posted:8/24/2012
language:
pages:22