Climate Change and Fish in the North Cascades

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					Climate Change and Fish
 in the North Cascades:
  Current Research and
        Monitoring

       Ed Connor
     Seattle City Light
     How will Climate Change
   Impact North Cascades Fish?
 Altered Hydrology
 Higher Sediment Yields
 Habitat Impacts
 Warmer Freshwater Temperatures
 Changes in Ocean Temperature Cycles
              Species of Concern
   Bull Trout (ESA “Threatened”)
       Resident
       Anadromous
       Lake Dwelling
   Steelhead (ESA “Threatened”)
       Anadromous forms
       Resident rainbow trout
   Chinook Salmon (ESA “Threatened”)
       Summer/Fall Chinook
       Spring Chinook – rare and vunerable
Skagit Bull Trout




                    photo credit: Mark Downen
Steelhead
Chinook Salmon
How will Climate Change
  Impact Skagit Fish?
Some findings to date…
Peak Flows at Mt Vernon (1978-2009)
                  160,000


                  140,000


                  120,000


                  100,000
Peak Flow (cfs)




                   80,000


                   60,000


                   40,000


                   20,000


                       0
                       78

                       80

                       82

                       84

                       86

                       88

                       90

                       92

                       94

                       96

                       98

                       00

                       02

                       04

                       06

                       08
                     19

                     19

                     19

                     19

                     19

                     19

                     19

                     19

                     19

                     19

                     19

                     20

                     20

                     20

                     20

                     20
Skagit Chinook Egg-to-Smolt Survival
         versus Peak Flow
               18


               16


               14


               12
Survival (%)




               10


                8


                6


                4


                2


                0
                    0   20,000   40,000   60,000     80,000    100,000   120,000   140,000   160,000

                                          Peak Flow at Mt Vernon (cfs)
                         Chinook Yearling Outmigrants vs.
                           Peak Flows during Fry Year
                       160,000


                       140,000


                       120,000
Yearling Outmigrants




                       100,000


                        80,000


                        60,000


                        40,000


                        20,000


                            0
                                 0   20,000   40,000   60,000     80,000    100,000   120,000   140,000   160,000
                                                       Peak Flow at Mt Vernon (cfs)
                        Chinook Yearling Outmigrants vs.
                        Peak Flows during Second Year
                       160,000


                       140,000


                       120,000
Yearling Outmigrants




                       100,000


                        80,000


                        60,000


                        40,000


                        20,000


                            0
                                 0   20,000   40,000   60,000     80,000    100,000   120,000   140,000   160,000
                                                       Peak Flow at Mt Vernon (cfs)
Ocean Condition Index Trends
                      Skagit Steelhead Spawner Trends
                     14,000



                     12,000



                     10,000
Steelhead Spawners




                      8,000



                      6,000



                      4,000



                      2,000

                                                                             No
                                                                            Data
                         0
                              1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
                                                                    Year
                     PDO Index (Annual Mean)
19




       -1.5
              -1.0
                     -0.5
                            0.0
                                   0.5
                                          1.0
                                                1.5
                                                      2.0
  78
19
  80
19
  82
19
  84
19
  86
19
  88
19
  90
19
  92
19
  94
19
  96
19
  98
20
  00
20
  02
                                                            PDO Index (1978-2009)




20
  04
20
  06
20
  08
                    Skagit Steelhead Run Size versus
                        PDO Index (1978-2009)
                   18000


                   16000


                   14000


                   12000
Steelhead Return




                   10000


                   8000


                   6000


                   4000


                   2000


                      0
                      -1.50   -1.00   -0.50   0.00      0.50   1.00   1.50   2.00
                                              SST PDO Index
                                September Mean Flows in
                                 Sauk River (1978-2009)
                        4,500


                        4,000


                        3,500
Mean Daily Flow (cfs)




                        3,000


                        2,500


                        2,000


                        1,500


                        1,000


                         500


                           0
                           78

                           80

                           82

                           84

                           86

                           88

                           90

                           92

                           94

                           96

                           98

                           00

                           02

                           04

                           06

                           08
                         19

                         19

                         19

                         19

                         19

                         19

                         19

                         19

                         19

                         19

                         19

                         20

                         20

                         20

                         20

                         20
                         Sauk River High Flow and
                       Low Flow Frequency by Decade
                  12
                           Low Flow Years                                          Low flow < 1,000 cfs
                                                                                   High flow > 30,000 cfs
                           High Flow Years
                  10




                   8
Number of Years




                   6




                   4




                   2




                   0
                       1928-1937 1938-1947 1948-1957 1958-1967 1968-1977 1978-1987 1988-1997 1998-2007
Skagit Steelhead Climate Model

                  Escapement

              -0.19              0.39**
  -0.13
              SST Index         0.56**
                                             Skagit Steelhead
                  0.32
                               - 0.43**
                                                 Return
  0.44*           Peak Flow

              0.24                0.49**


                  Low Flow
                               Unexplained = 20%
   * p < 0.01
   ** p < 0.001
Skagit Steelhead Run Predictions
                   10,000


                    9,000                                                           Predicted
                                                                                    Observed

                    8,000


                    7,000
Steelhead Return




                    6,000


                    5,000


                    4,000


                    3,000


                    2,000


                    1,000


                       0
                            2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011    2012
   Current Research Programs
 Bull trout and steelhead migration study
 Upper Skagit temperature monitoring
 Ross Lake ecosystem monitoring program
 Bull trout acoustic telemetry in reservoirs
 Salmonid Yearling Project
 Redside Shiner and Brook Trout research
 Gravel Temperature Monitoring
Skagit Fish Migration Research
                                          Bull Trout Spawn Timing
                                45

                                40                                                            Sauk
                                                                                              Illabot
                                35                                                            Bacon
Cumulative percent redd count




                                                                                              Cascade
                                30
                                                                                              Downey
                                25

                                20

                                15

                                10

                                 5

                                 0
                                     37   38   39   40   41   42          43   44   45   46      47     48
                                                                   Week
  Upper Skagit Water
Temperature Monitoring
                           Upper Skagit Temperature Monitoring
                      12

                                        Big Beaver
                      11
                                        Lightning Creek
                      10
                                        Skagit at Int. Border

                      9


                      8
Mean Daily Temp (C)




                      7


                      6


                      5


                      4


                      3


                      2


                      1


                      0
                      Sep-04   Oct-04     Nov-04     Dec-04     Jan-05   Feb-05   Mar-05   Apr-05   May-05   Jun-05
Bull Trout Telemetry in Ross Lake
Ross Lake Ecosystem Monitoring
                             Reservoir Profiling
                           Ross Lake Temp. Profiles August 2010
                                        Temperature (C)
                   0   5           10                     15   20   25
               0



              20



              40

                                                                         Big Beaver

              60                                                         Skymo
Depth (ft)




                                                                         Little Beaver

              80



             100



             120



             140
  Salmonid
Stream-Type
 Life History
    Study
Redside Shiners and Brook Trout



            Redside Shiner




   Brook Trout
Gravel Temperature Monitoring
         Future Research?
 Reservoir  and riverine temperature
  modeling (CE-QUAL-W2)
 Food web and trophic dynamic models of
  reservoirs and river
 Use FLIR imagery to map out groundwater
  inflows and coldwater refuge areas
 Fish spawning timing and incubation
  models
        Why will Climate Change
      Impact North Cascade Fish?
 Lower   Survival Rates
     Flood Impacts
     Temperature Tolerances
 Food  Availability and Metabolism
 Altered Spawning and Migration Timing
 Increased Competition and Predation
     Lower flows and warmer temperatures
 Greater   Numbers of Exotic Species

				
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posted:8/21/2012
language:English
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