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dry_bulk_faces_bleak_2012_chinese_slowdown

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Dry Bulk Faces Bleak 2012, Chinese Slowdown Threatens A Sector
Already In Troubled Waters

Description:    BMI believes the outlook for the Dry Bulk Shipping sector remains bleak. The opening weeks of
                2012 saw the Baltic Dry Index hit a three-year low due to an oversupply of vessels, exacerbated by
                slack Chinese demand in the run-up to the Chinese New Year holiday. We maintain our long-held
                view that rates for shipping dry bulk goods will remain depressed due to the ongoing overcapacity
                in the sector which as yet shows no signs of abating. In order to ease the situation, more lines
                need to use the strategy of laying up vessels in order to ease the glut of vessels, but we are not yet
                seeing this happening.

                While our concerns about vessel supply have been in place for some time, we are now growing
                increasingly worried about demand for dry bulk shipping. Previously, this has not been a concern as
                strong Chinese demand for goods such as iron ore and coal kept many vessels occupied, despite
                vessel oversupply. Now, our belief that the Chinese economy is in line for a slowdown, which will
                put negative pressure on demand for dry bulk goods, means that rates could plumb new lows in
                2012. In Possibility Of A Chinese Slowdown Presents Real Risk To Dry Bulk Shipping BMI examines
                the outlook for Chinese demand for dry bulk goods. China remains the world's main importer of
                cargo such as iron ore and coal. As such, any fall-off in demand from the Asian Dragon presents a
                strong threat to the sector. In One Vale Mega-Vessel Calls To China, It Remains Unclear If The Rest
                Will Follow we look at the future of Vale's expensive and ambitious plan to lower its freight rates by
                developing its own fleet of Chinamax vessels.

                Given the frosty reception the vessels have received from Chinese shipowners, and the fact that a
                slowdown in Chinese demand is looking increasingly likely, has the company made a US$2.3bn
                mistake? Dry Bulk Lines Still Suffering As Another Chinese Company Withholds Charter Payments
                examines the trend for withholding charter payments and contract buy-outs, as dry bulk shipping
                companies struggle in an increasingly difficult operating environment. Most are reporting losses,
                and while some continue to post profits, all are suffering on the stock markets. In Oversize Dry
                Bulk Fleet To Continue Growing we detail the outlook for fleet growth in 2012. Will the number of
                vessels expected to come online in 2012 serve to exacerbate the existing glut of capacity, further
                depressing rates, or will owners up their usage of strategies such as lay-ups and scrapping in order
                to reduce vessel availability?



Contents:       Executive Summary
                Industry Trend Analysis
                Possibility Of A Chinese Slowdown Presents Real Risk To Dry Bulk Shipping
                China Still Dictates Dry Bulk Market
                Asian's Dragon's Appetite For Dry Bulk Imports To Slow
                CHART Rates Plunge On Overcapacity And Drop In Demand
                Baltic Dry Index, 1 year, US$
                CHART Lo sing Its Mettle?
                Chinese Steel Production, y-o-y growth
                Chinese Construction Slowdown Real Risk For Dry Bulk Sector
                CHART Above Average But Slowing
                Chinese Iron Ore Imports (tonnes)
                CHART 7% Is The New 10%
                China - Real GDP Growth, % chg y-o-y
                Demand Side Pressure Could See BDI Plumb New Lows
                Industry Trend Analysis
                One Vale Mega-Vessel Calls To China, It Remains Unclear If The Rest Will Follow
                CHART Share Price Sinking
                Vale Shares, 1 year, US$
                CHART Global Connection
                Vale’s Iron Ore Supply Chain
                Vale Holds Back From Putting All Its Eggs In China's Basket
Vale Attempts To Appease Chinese
Chinese Slowdown Poses Major Risk To Vale's Strategy
CHART Big Appetite To Satisfy, But Will Demand Slow?
China - % Of Global Production And Consumption, 2
Plummeting Baltic Dry Index Renders Attempt To Cut Cost Redundant
Industry Trend Analysis
Dry Bulk Lines Still Suffering As Another Chinese Company Withholds Charter Payments
COSCO Looses Out On Sinking Rates
More Chinese Lines Witholding Charter Payments
First Company Buys Its Way Out Of Charter Agreement
CHART Share Price Sinking As Rates Suffer
China COSCO Share Prices, 1 year, CNY
CHART Diana Outperforms, But Remains On Downward Course
Diana Shipping & Excel Maritime Share Prices, 1 year, US$
Long Term Charters Still Key To Success
Stock Prices Reflect Widespread Bearish Sentiment
Industry Trend Analysis
Oversized Dry bulk Fleet To Continue Growing
Oversized Fleet continues Growing
Scrapping More Common, But To Limited Effect
More Idling Needed To Dent Capacity
CHART In Troubled Waters
2011 Global Dry Bulk Fleet Growth
CHART Vessel Prices Sinking
Newbuild Prices, US$
Tough Times For Shipbuilders
Global Company Strategy
COSCO–Dry Bulk
Overview
Strategy
Fleet
Routes
Financial Results
Latest Activity
NYK (Dry Bulk)
Overview
Strategy
Financials
Q111 (April 1 to June 30)
2010
Latest Activity
Dry Bulk Shipping Faces Bleak 2012
NYK Swaps Order Due To Changing Dry-Bulk Demand
Navios Maritime Holdings
Overview
Strategy
Fleet
Financial Results
Q311
Q211
Q111
2010
Latest Activity
Dry Bulk Shipping Faces Bleak 2012
Navios Aquires New Vessels
Excel Maritime Carriers
Overview
Strategy
Financial Results
Q311
Q211
Q111
2010
            Latest Activity
            Excel Maritime Signs Three Charters
            Dry Ships
            Overview
            Strategy
            Financial Results
            Q311
            Q211
            Q111
            Latest Activity
            Dry Bulk Shippers Still Suffering As Another Chinese Company Withholds Charter Payments
            Dryships Sells Some Vessels, Acquires Others
            4 Business Monitor International Ltd
            Dry Bulk Faces Bleak 2012, Chinese Slowdown Threatens A Sector Already In Troubled Waters
            Global Assumptions
            Growth Prospects Dim As 2012 Begins
            TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
            Table: DEVELOPED STATES REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST
            Table: REAL GDP GROWTH CONSENSUS FORECASTS
            Table: EMERGING MARKETS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST



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