World outlook 2060 by ghdavani

VIEWS: 101 PAGES: 40

									DAYARAYAN MANAGEMENT & CONSULTING
World in 2060
                              Powers
Rise and Fall of Top Economic Powers




                                                            2012




         SUITE 1000-355 BURRARD STREET VANCOUVER BC V6C 2G8 CANADA
World in 2060 or Rise and fall of Top Economic Power
By: Gholamhossein Davani
NYSSCPA, CAAA, APCBC, CFE, IICA

It is about 15 years that China and emerging economic are main problem for
traditional economic power. In 1900, London was the capital of the world. As
was famously remarked, “The Sun never set on the British empire”. European
Imperialist nations were grabbing colonies in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
All the great superpowers were prospering, although at the expense of their
colonies. One would have expected the world to be peaceful and stable as
everyone was gaining. By the 1950s, the United Kingdom was replaced as the
superpower by one of its former colonies, the United States of America. After
the Second World War the two super power controlled all the around the world
and cold war replace real war. By the fall down Soviet Union and finishing cold
war the globalization process was raise but with credit crisis and also financial
crisis after 2007 ,this is an effort by every body to predict what the world may
be by 2030, 2050 or 2060 ?!
The main indicators to compare world economy are Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) that public people don’t
understand what PPP is?!!
After Raise of China Dragon and especially financial crisis 2002, all advanced
countries were looking head "What happen in future" .In 2003, Goldman Sachs
attempted to project which countries had the potential to become the world's
largest economies over the next fifty years. in the other hand Price Water House
& Coopers (PWC) the World top accounting firm also published special report
was named world in 2050 .PWC presented new model for future economy
projection but six months after PWC report Credit Crisis was begun that hasn't
estimated by any professional economist in spite that they were declare to can
projection future economy!!
I am certified public accountant but interested in political economy and many of
my articled are about political economy and Economic development .I review
and study carefully all articles and published related to future economy and find
that majority researcher use only one method to compare world different
economic to show which economic is stronger or bigger .This method is named
PPP.
What is PPP?!
A purchasing power parity (PPP) between two countries, A and B, is the ratio of
the number of units of country A’s currency needed to purchase in country A
the same quantity of a specific good or service as one unit of country B’s
currency will purchase in country B. PPPs can be expressed in the currency of
either of the countries. In practice, they are usually computed among large
numbers of countries and expressed in terms of a single currency, with the U.S.
dollar (US$) most commonly used as the base or “numeracies” currency" -
Global Purchasing Power Parities and Real Expenditures. 2005 International
Comparison Program. The World Bank.
The review of PPP shows this scale and indicator is not reasonable and logical
to compare different economic as capital is social relation so we need several
factors to compare these relation, especially when we want to use "Super
power" terminology in economic and political .The super power is not only
word or sound but super power has some specific factors.

Which factors are necessary for economic super power?!
To be economic super power the country must be have necessary several factors
as same as:
    1- Population
    2- Natural resources
    3- Human resources ( people educated)
    4- Personal economic out put
    5- GDP per capital
    6- Area
    7- Strong Military
    8- Democracy and transparency
    9- Good governance
    10-Access to water and healthy for population
For example countries with the most highly educated citizens are also some of
the wealthiest in the world. The United States, Japan and Canada are on our list
and also have among the largest GDPs. Norway and Australia, also featured,
have the second and sixth-highest GDPs per capita, respectively. All these
countries aggressively invest in education. The countries that invest the most in
education have the most-educated people. All of the best-educated countries,
except for the UK, fall within the top 15 OECD countries for greatest spending
on tertiary — that is, college or college-equivalent — spending as a percentage
of GDP. The U.S. spends the second most and Canada spends the fourth most.
Interestingly, public expenditure on educational institutions relative to private
spending by these countries is small compared with other countries in the
OECD. While the majority of education is still funded with public money, eight
of the countries on our list rely the least on public funding as a percentage of
total education spending.

                                       3
                    Table (1) – Top 10 Educated Countries 2012
                       Ave. Annual      Population                   Pop. Grow
                                                       GDP Per
Rank        Country        Grow           With                          rate
                                                        Capital
                      rate 1999-2009  postsecondary                 (2000-2009)
  1      Canada      2.30%                 50%          39,070         9.89%
  2      Israel      3.2                   45%          28,596        19.02%
  3      Japan       3.20%                 44%          33,751          0.46
  4      USA         1.40%                 41%          46,588         8.68%
  5      New Zealand 3.50%                 40%          29,871         11.88
  6      S. Korea    5.30%                 39%          29,101         3.70%
  7      Norway      2.7                   37%          56,617         7.52%
  8      UK          4%                    37%          35,504         3.47%
  9      Australia   3.30%                 37%          40,719        14.63%
 10      Finland     1.80%                 37%          36,585         3.15%
      Source: www.247 wallst.com

      Although develop countries spend so much more than emerging countries on
      research and development (R&D) that this index shows access knowledge
      base product. Table below shows what percentage of GDP allocated to R&D
      in developed countries.
            Table (2) - Research and development spending to GDP 2011
                                       Expenditures
                                          on R&D     % of
                    Rank    Country
                                        ($Bln. PPP) GDP PPP

                       1     USA               405.3     2.7%
                       2     China             153.7     1.4%
                       3     Japan             144.1     3.3%
                       4     Germany            69.5     2.3%
                       5     S. Korea           44.8     3.0%
                       6     France             42.2     1.9%
                       7     UK                 38.4     1.7%
                       8     India              36.1     0.9%
                       9     Canada             24.3     1.8%
                       10    Russia             23.1     1.0%
                       11    Brazil             19.4     0.9%
                       12    Italy                19     1.1%
                       13    Taiwan               19     2.3%
                       14    Spain              17.2     1.3%
                       15    Australia          15.9     1.7%
                       16    Sweden             11.9     3.3%
                       17    Netherlands        10.8     1.6%
                       18    Israel              9.4     4.2%
                       19    Austria             8.3     2.5%
                       20    Swiss               7.5     2.3%


                                           4
In spite that China might overtake the US to become the largest economy in the
world before 2017, and even might be India can take over US by 2050 in GDP
by base of PPP but realty it is joke that we can accept India or China can be
main competitor US Economy that I will show in GDP nominal they are so
different .Unfortunately all comparison has been done by everyone ,all
estimates are based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), an economic growth
indicator that takes into account the purchasing power of each country's
currency, instead of the prevailing exchange rate conversion. For example
China economy is expected to be nearly $Bln. 88,086 on PPP basis by 2060
from $ Bln.11,290 in 2011. Our report said China will pass the US as the
largest economy in the world in 2025 with purchase power parity US GDP will
be $ Bln. 22,749 in compare with China GDP $ Bln.23,774 so China will be
ahead of US with more than $ Bln. 1,025
The US was the world’s largest economy for about a century, since the British
Empire suffered severely in the Second World War. China can now look for a
reign on the throne for about 30-40 years before the currently fastest growing
major economy, India, is likely to surpass them. India became the world’s third
largest economy current year and passed Japan with the help of their growing
population and will challenge the size of the US economy in a decade.US
Companies are 132 as 500 top largest companies against China 86 and Japan 68
in 2012.
Even though China will pass the US in total, the US will be the second largest
economy after 2025 and is still by far the nation with the biggest GDP per
capita with $ 59,088 followed by China as$ 17,942 that US GDP per capital
will 3.29 times more than China.
Comparison of GDP per capita level and contrary to most expectations, the US
would continue to be the leading global superpower. Even today despite the
recession, the US GDP per capital in 2025 will be estimated more than the next
four nations put together. Especially demographics of the US would be
radically different as the white majority today will be overtaken by huge influx
of intelligent immigrants and also a secular and democratic state, the US would
be the leader in technology, military as well as the global economy. In the other
hand don't forget that new emerging economic would be top large economy in
1800 age. Look at the below table that shows GDP period 1700-1973.




                                       5
                    Table (3)-GDP Comparison 1700- 1973
             Year      1700     1870       1913    1950    1973
          USA           0.5      98        517     1455    3536
          Russian       16       83        232     510     1513
          UK            10       100       347     675     1280
          Japan         15       25         71     161     1242
          India         90       134       204     222      494
          Germany       13       72        237     265      944
          France        19       72        144     220      683
          China         82       189       241     244      739
          Italy         14       41         95     164      582
          Spain          7       19         41      61      266
          Mexico        25        6         25      67      279
          World         371     1,110      2,733   5,331   16,022


The above table emphasis the new emerging market would be super power 18th
and 19th. Age!!




                                       6
For more information table (4) shows historical changes in GDP Countries and Region as $ M.USD between 1-2003
                                            Table (4)- Historical World GDP $ Million USD 1-2003
         Country / Region        1        1000       1500       1600       1700       1820        1870         1913         1950        1973        2003
   Austria                        213        298      1,414      2,093      2,483      4,104        8,419       23,451        25,702       85,227      173,311
   Belgium                        135        170      1,225      1,561      2,288      4,529       13,716       32,347        47,190      118,516      219,069
   Denmark                         72        144        443        569        727      1,471        3,782       11,670        29,654       70,032      124,781
   Finland                          8         16        136        215        255        913        1,999        6,389        17,051       51,724      106,749
   France                       2,366      2,763     10,912     15,559     19,539     35,468       72,100      144,489       220,492      683,965    1,315,601
   Germany                      1,225      1,435      8,256     12,656     13,650     26,819       72,149      237,332       265,354      944,755    1,577,423
   Italy                        6,475      2,250     11,550     14,410     14,630     22,535       41,814       95,487       164,957      582,713    1,110,691
   Netherlands                     85        128        723      2,072      4,047      4,288        9,952       24,955        60,642      175,791      348,464
   Norway                          40         80        183        266        361        777        2,360        5,988        17,728       44,852      118,591
   Sweden                          80        160        382        626      1,231      3,098        6,927       17,403        47,269      109,794      193,352
   Switzerland                    128        123        411        750      1,068      2,165        5,581       16,483        42,545      117,251      164,773
   UK                             320        800      2,815      6,007     10,709     36,232      100,180      224,618       347,850      675,941    1,280,625
   Sub-total (1)               11,146      8,366     38,450     56,784     70,988    142,399      338,979      840,612     1,286,434    3,660,561    6,733,430
   Portugal                       180        255        606        814      1,638      3,043        4,219        7,467        17,615       63,397      144,694
   Spain                        1,867      1,800      4,495      7,029      7,481     12,299       19,556       41,653        61,429      266,896      684,537
   Other                        1,240        504        632        975      1,106      2,110        4,712       12,478        30,600      105,910      294,733
   Total Western Europe        14,433     10,925     44,183     65,602     81,213    159,851      367,466      902,210     1,396,078    4,096,764    7,857,394
   Eastern Europe               1,956      2,600      6,696      9,289     11,393     24,906       50,163      134,793       185,023      550,756      786,408
   Former USSR                  1,560      2,840      8,458     11,426     16,196     37,678       83,646      232,351       510,243    1,513,070    1,552,231
   USA                            272        520        800        600        527     12,548       98,374      517,383     1,455,916    3,536,622    8,430,762
   Other Western offshoots        176        228        320        320        306        951       13,119       65,558       179,574      521,667    1,277,267
   Total Western offshoots        448        748      1,120        920        833     13,499      111,493      582,941     1,635,490    4,058,289    9,708,029
   Mexico                         880      1,800      3,188      1,134      2,558      5,000        6,214       25,921        67,368      279,302      740,226
   Other Latin America           1,360      2,760      4,100      2,629      3,788      9,921      21,097       94,875      347,960     1,110,158    2,391,919
   Total Latin America          2,240      4,560      7,288      3,763      6,346     14,921       27,311      120,796      415,328     1,389,460    3,132,145
   Japan                        1,200      3,188      7,700      9,620     15,390     20,739       25,393       71,653      160,966     1,242,932    2,699,261
   China                       26,820     26,550     61,800     96,000     82,800    228,600      189,740      241,431      244,985       739,414    6,187,984
   India                       33,750     33,750     60,500     74,250     90,750    111,417      134,882      204,242      222,222       494,832    2,267,136
   Other east Asia              4,845      8,968     20,822     24,582     28,440     36,451       53,155      122,874      256,938       839,258    3,926,975
   West Asia                    10,120     12,415     10,495     12,637     12,291     15,270       22,468       40,588      106,283      548,120    1,473,739
   Total Asia (excl. Japan)     75,535     81,683    153,617    207,469    214,281    391,738      400,245      609,135      830,428    2,621,624   13,855,834
   Africa                        8,030     13,835     19,383     23,473     25,776     31,266       45,234       79,486      203,131      549,993    1,322,087
   World                      105,402    120,379    248,445    331,562    371,428    694,598    1,110,951    2,733,365    5,331,689    16,022,888   40,913,389
      Source: Wikipedia
But what was happened after 2000?!
Table below shows changing process to world GDP after 2000 that is huge
different with table (4).

                 Table (5)- Historical World GDP 2000-2060
                    Year $Bln USD Year $ Bln-USD
                   2060      350,000 1990        27,537
                   2040      210,000 1970        12,137
                   2030      145,000 1950          4081
                   2020      111,088 1940          3001
                   2017        98,041 1920         1733
                   2015        74,604 1900         1102
                   2010        56,794 1875        568.8
                   2000        41,016 1700         99.8

A natural rivalry will arise between the US and China of which the signs are
evident even today. Looking to seek revenge, the rule in China will become
even more dictatorial and anti-US sentiment will grow specially they think all
matters related to Middle East and replace US army in Afghan and Iraq is by the
control oil and Gas resources to control China and India grow . I arranged all
main economic keys are these two countries in table (3) to can compare why
WE and China could be super power!!
                  Table (6)- Comparison Key Economic Facts US and China
Key Fact                      USA      China    Key Fact                            USA       China
GDO-Current USD               14,660 5,875      Industrial output 2008-B-USD        3,073     2,104
GDP-PPPB-USD                  14,660 10,900     Agricultural output 2008-USDB       183       489
%World Export                 28.11    29.7     Meat Product 2008-Tonnes            43        74
% of world Goods Export       8.4      10.4     Fruit Product-2008M-Tonnes          28        107
%of world services export     42.17    17.3     vegetable-M -Tonnes                 36        457
Trade balance 2008            (504)    426      Cereal-M-Tonnes                     481       403
Official Reserve B-USD        132      2,876    Wheat 1000 Tonnes-2009              60,400    115,100
Official Gold Reserve B-USD   284      36       Rice -1000Tonnes -200                  ---    136,570
Industrial output 2008B-USD   1,831    1.85     Coarsegrains-1000-Tonnes            349,000   164,900
Services Out put 2008 B-USD   10,562   1,734    Tea - 1000Tonnes 2009                  ---    1,203
Cooper-1000Tnnes-2009         1.204    691      Raw wool-1000 Tonnes 2009              ---    167
Lead- 1000 Tonnes             409      1,908    Cotton1000Tonnes2009                2,654     6,925
Zink-1000Tonnes               690      3,092    Major oilseeds-1000Tonnes 2009-10   100,410   72,540
Tin-1000Tonnes                  ---    128      Oil-1000 barrel per day             7,513     4,071
Nikel-1000Tonnes                ---    Mar-00   Natural gas B-cubic metric 2010     611       96.8
Aluminium-1000tonnes          1.727    12,846   Coal -M-Tonnes                      552       1,800
Precious metal -Tonnes        223      314      Energy product-M-Tonnes             1,665     1,814
Platinum-Tonnes               7.4         ---   Energy consumers- M-tonnes          2,284     2,116
Rubber-1000Tonnes             1,962    3,500    innovation index                    5,65      ?
 %R&D Expenditure to GDP      2.76     1.54     Car produt-1000                     5,711     13,790
No.Patents2006-008            82,284   34,537   Road network -1000Km                6,486     3,799
Direct Foreign Invest B-USD   316      108      Railway network- 1000Km             226       63.6
Share of Top 24 big Company   14       2        Merchant fleets                     1,782     3,499
Share of Top 15 banks           ---    3        No. household-M                     117       384
Stock Market                  17,139   4,769    Energy largest producer M-Tonnes    1,993     1,705




                                                 9
The world economy grew was %5 in 2010. That its fastest rate for many years,
led by the extraordinary boom in China and very high growth in most other
third world countries too. America and Japan also had fairly strong growth,
although Western Europe had a more dismal performance but in 2011 the grow
rate decreased to %3.9. Can the good times be appears in next year Or is the
world economy heading for a crisis?

                    Table (7) – Main index famous economy 2011
                    Index                  UK    Germany   France         USA
 GDP Real Grow rate                         (2.3)       (1.4)      0.5      (1.8)
 %Net government Debt to GDP                97.2        87.3     102.4     103.6
 Grow rate of GDP                            0.6         0.6       0.2       2.3
 Inflation                                   3.4         2.3       2.3       2.9
Source: Financial times Jan. 2012


What was happened that the world economic boom has been
driven?!
The several economists researcher report emphasis that the world economic
boom has been driven by two factors that first is t it has been driven by a
gradual special economic in China, India, Brazil and even Russia that said "
Control government market " . The average tariff level in a country like China
has been lowered from 41% in 1992 to 6% in 2004. The increased new
capitalism ( Controlled Market ) of world trade has increased the scope of
international division of labor and permanently helped raise growth in the world
as a whole and in particular in third-world countries. Particularly if trade is
freed even more, this factor should continue to help the world economy to
prosper. Another reason for the increased growth in emerging economies is the
free market reforms implemented there with a country like China transforming
itself from one of the most destructive communist systems in the history of
mankind (that is saying a lot) to a virtual "capitalist paradise" with a seemingly
endless supply of cheap but competent labor and with no welfare state and no
unions and with many other emerging economies also undertaking free market
reforms of varying radicalism.
To better understand the prospects for the world economy, should analyze in
more detail the strengths and weaknesses of the four main economic
powerhouses of the world, was named BRIC includes Brazil ,Russia ,India and
China (BRIC) .Remind that BRIC is a grouping acronym that refers to the
countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China, which are all deemed to be at a
similar stage of newly advanced economic development. It is typically rendered
as "the BRICs" or "the BRIC countries" or "the BRIC economies" or
alternatively as the "Big Four"- Wikipedia-.

                                       10
• Brazil is currently growing at a relatively slow pace, with seasonally-adjusted
first quarter real GDP growth of 0.2% over the previous quarter. The economy
is suffering from a weak and volatile Real which although helps exporters,
harms companies who have borrowed in US$. Consumer demand remains
strong however bolstered by low unemployment, which is has averaged 5.9% in
the first four months of 2012. Brazil has moderately free markets and an
inward-oriented economy. Its economy is the largest in Latin American nations
and the second largest in the western hemisphere. Brazil is one of the fastest-
growing major economies in the world with an average annual GDP growth rate
of over 5 percent. Brazilian GDP was $ Bln.2,172 in 2011 . The Brazilian
economy has been predicted to become one of the four largest economies in the
world in the decades to come.
• Russia has a market economy with enormous natural resources, particularly oil
and natural gas. It has the 12th largest economy in the world by nominal GDP
and the 7th largest by purchasing power parity (PPP). Since the turn of the 21st
century, higher domestic consumption and greater political stability have
bolstered economic growth in Russia. The country ended 2008 with its ninth
straight year of growth, averaging 7% annually. Growth was primarily driven
by non-traded services and goods for the domestic market, as opposed to oil or
mineral extraction and exports. The average salary in Russia was $640 per
month in early 2008, up from $80 in 2000. Approximately 13.7% of Russians
lived below the national poverty line in 2010, significantly down from 40% in
1998 at the worst of the post-Soviet collapse. Unemployment in Russia was at
6% in 2007, down from about 12.4% in 1999. The middle class has grown from
just 8 million persons in 2000 to 55 million persons in 2006.
Russia's problem is not economic and it has never been economic it is basically
a moral problem and until that problem is solved, no reasonable economic
system, no market economy...has a chance of taking root there. Russia's
transition from "Governmental Capitalism “ to "criminal capitalism" had
occurred in three stages includes hyperinflation, privatization, and
criminalization. Hyperinflation began on 1992, when the Gaidar government
freed virtually all prices, consequently wiping out the life-savings of millions of
Russians. Oil, natural gas, metals, and timber account for more than 80% of
Russian exports abroad. Since 2003, however, exports of natural resources
started decreasing in economic importance as the internal market strengthened
considerably. Despite higher energy prices, oil and gas only contribute to 5.7%
of Russia’s GDP and the government predicts this will drop to 3.7% by 2011.
Oil export earnings allowed Russia to increase its foreign reserves from $12
billion in 1999 to $597.3 billion on 1 August 2008, the third largest foreign
exchange reserves in the world. The macroeconomic policy under Finance
Minister Alexei Kudrin was prudent and sound, with excess income being
stored in the Stabilization Fund of Russia. In 2006, Russia repaid most of its

                                        11
formerly massive debts, leaving it with one of the lowest foreign debts among
major economies. The Stabilization Fund helped Russia to come out of the
global financial crisis in a much better state than many experts had expected.
• According to the International Monetary Fund, India’s nominal GDP stood at
$Bln-Us 1,676, which makes it the eleventh-largest economy in the world,
corresponding to a per capita income of $ US 1100. If purchasing power parity
(PPP) is taken into account, India’s economy is the fourth largest in the world at
$Bln-Us 4,460. With an average annual GDP growth rate of 5.8% for the past
two decades, India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. With
an estimated population in 2050 of 1.63 billion, India will thus have a per capita
income of over $53,000 - in the range of today's wealthiest countries like
Switzerland and Norway. Sounds too good to be true? Of course it is. As Japan
foreign debt is growing up and country's debt is projected to be 239% of the
size of its economy by the end of 2012, according to the IMF. No other country
is even close so India takes over Japan rank.
India has the world’s second largest labour force, with 467 million people. In
terms of output, the agricultural sector accounts for 28% of GDP; the service
and industrial sectors make up 54% and 18% respectively. Major agricultural
products include rice, wheat, oilseed, cotton, jute, tea, sugarcane, potatoes.
Major industries include textiles, telecommunications, chemicals, food
processing, steel, transport equipment, cement, mining, petroleum, machinery
and software. India’s external trade has reached a relatively moderate share of
24% of GDP in 2006, up from 6% in 1985. In 2008, India’s share of world trade
was about 1.68%; in 2009, it was the world’s fifteenth largest importer and
eighteenth largest exporter. Major exports include petroleum products, textile
goods, gems and jewelry, software, engineering goods, chemicals, and leather
manufactures. Major imports include crude oil, machinery, gems, fertilizer, and
chemicals. In India, inflation remains a concern with the wholesale index price
accelerating in April to 7.2% (seasonally-adjusted) on a year earlier reversing
previous falls. Industrial output and exports have also registered falls and there
are increasing fears about a slowdown in consumer demand – as well as the
impact of the euro zone crisis. These trends combined to produce seasonally-
adjusted real GDP growth of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2012 over the previous
quarter. India being democratic will continue on its path to development and In
view of its continuing robust growth, India is expected to be the world's largest
economy by 2050, surpassing China and the United States, a City report said.
India will be inducted into the Security Council as a permanent member along
with Brazil. Asia will become bi-polar with India and China leading two camps,
one based on democracy with the other bolstering communist and autocratic
rule.
• China will continue to grow in the beginning of the 21st century. China
economic grow rate between 1989-1999 was 9.9 and between 1992-2009 was
10.3 the highest economic grow and must relax its grip on industry and move
                                       12
towards a Control -market economy, and World Bank has said in a report that
forecast the country would become the world's largest economy before 2030.
China’s GDP for 2011 was $Bln.10,085 the second world largest economy after
USA. The trade weighted tariff rate is 4.2% with layers of non-tariff barriers
adding to the cost of trade. The investmentregim is non-transparent and
inefficient. The state control of the financial system as its primery means the
rest of economy. The government owns all large financial institution .Which
lend according to state priorities and directives and large state enterprise with
inflation rate as 3.3%.
China relies very little to foreign borrowing and its growth id financial from
resources extracted from its own population, not from fickle foreigners free to
flee, as happened in South-East Asia and happening again in Euro zone
!!.China ‘s saving rate ,at 51% of GDP, is even higher than its investment rate
this opportunity allows china access to jump to capital per head and if china can
access to $40,000 per head their economy size will be equal $Bln.54 that
would be 3.7 times more that US size!! But according to official (Nominal)
GDP statistics converted at current exchange rates, in all indirect indicators of
economic size, the Chinese economy is the second largest in the world, for
example, the biggest consumer of coal, steel, and many other commodities and
the second biggest consumer of oil (after America). Of course, there are
potential dangers for China which could at least temporarily derail its strong
growth. The fast transition of the country could potentially create great social
unrest. The Chinese banking system looks very fragile as it is heavily burdened
by bad loans. Moreover, China is far too dependent on exports to America.
China's exports to America last year were some 12% of GDP and the bilateral
trade surplus was 10% of GDP. This makes China very vulnerable to an
economic downturn in America. First because of its direct negative effect on
exports and second because China is likely to be blamed for the crisis which
could create a protectionist backlash which will severely damage the Chinese
economy. This means that while the short-term outlook for the Chinese
economy is strong, it risks heavy damages from any economic crisis in
America, something which in turn poses risks for social unrest and for the
fragile banking system. China policy maker are very intelligent that could
supervisory and marker controlled to avoid financial criss same USA or Europe.
The story for some of the other major emerging economies, like Brazil, India
and Russia, have many similarities with that of China as they have also started
to liberalize their economies, something which has helped boost their growth
rates. Their potential may not be as great as that of China because their cultures
are not as inclined towards thrift and entrepreneurship as the Chinese culture
and because in the case of Brazil and Russia their populations are much smaller
and in the case of Russia shrinking. India is also still plagued by the unofficial
caste system which makes it more difficult to spread the success to the entire
population than in China. The Russian and Brazilian economies are also to a

                                       13
dangerously high extent dependent on oil and agriculture respectively. Even so,
they and many other emerging economies will likely increase in importance.

We propose in compare world economy, should be show GDP and GDP per
capital to find which economic is stronger so table (6) compare these range.
Note that inspite that GDP per head some countries same Iran and Persian Golf
Countries are higher than China and India but their GDP are related to export
Oil and Gas not Industry product .




                                      14
                   Table (8)- Comparison GDP & GDP per Head 2011
                   GDP      GDP at               GDP
 Country         Per Head     PPP     Country  Per Head GDP at                    PPP

                  USD        $Bln-USD                   USD            $Bln-USD
 USA               47,200        14,657 Japan            33,805                   4,309
 Europe            32,700        14,820 S.Korea          29,836                   1,459
 World             10,886        74,264 Russian          15,837                   2,222
 Canada            38,989         1,330 Mexico           14,430                   1,567
 Germany           36,033         2,940 Brazil           11,239                   2,172
 Taiwan            35,227          821 China               7,650              10,085
 UK                34,920         2,172 India              3,339                  4,060
 France            34,077         2,145 Iran             10,866                    818
   Source: CIA Fact Book 2012

Review of historical GDP per capital after Second World War in 1954 (table 9)
and compare with table (8) shows how Courtiers replaces with others .

                            Table (9) – GDP per Capital in 1954
          Rank        Country    GPC-$US        Rank         Country   GPC-$ US
            1      USA            9,573          13    Norway            4,969
            2      Swiss          8,939          14    Germany           4,281
            3      New Zealand    8,495          15    Finland           4,131
            4      Venezuela      7,424          16    Italy             3,425
            5      Australia      7,218          17    Russia            3,106
            6      Canada         7,047          18    Spain             2,397
            7      Sweden         6,738          19    Mexico            2,085
            8      Danish         6,683          20    Japan             1,873
            9      Netherlands    5,850          21    Turkey            1,299
           10      Mexico         5,348          22    S. Korea           876
           11      France         5,221          23    China              614
           12      Argentina      4,987          24    India              597




                                           15
Table (10) shows the progressive main player in economic zone from 1990 to
2017 that all readers find how emerging economic step by step grows this
power.

  Table (10) - Comparison Top 16 Largest Economy 1980-2017($Bln-USD)
                                                               % Average
 Country   2017   2015   2012   2010   2005 2000 1990 1980      Grow 37
                                                                 year
USA       19,704 17,788 15,609 14,526 12,622 9,951 5,800 2,788        706
Japan       5324 52024    4588   4380   3889 3255 2370     996        534
Germany     3655   3440   3158   2944   2492 2144 1446     762        479
France      2667   2476   2257   2134   1860 1533 1030     536        497
UK          2838   2594   2308   2199   1993 1487    933   472        601
Italy       2062   1943   1834   1800   1641 1404    976   509        405
Spain       1625   1514   1405   1374   1184   900   551   272        597
Canada      1753   1617   1448   1334   1132   888   542   272        644
China      20336 16670 12,387 10128     5364 3014 1943     987      2060
Brazil      3120   2825   2393   2186   1584 1234    786   445        701
India       7574   6276   4824   4069   2431 1571    744   286      2646
Russian     3295   2950   2510   2237   1696 1120      0     0      2941
Mexico      2242   2028   1743   1564   1297 1065    612   336        667
Indonesia   1829   1542   1208   1034    705   501   276   107     17093
Turkey      1476   1303   1112    969    747   513   291   116     12724
S. Korea    2148   1918   1629   1468   1096   775   335    87     24689
Source: IMF

We think the GDP based in PPP isn't a reasonable economic index to compare
different economy because in metropolis countries official and PPP are similar
but in emerging countries same China, India, Brazil and Mexico these scale are
very different. The environmental, social and political challenges of
transformation have largely been ignored in the model. One does however hope
that the necessary precursors like education, good governance and health care
system which countries like Brazil and Russia require to achieve the level of
economic as described in this scenario, will also help these countries overcome
and work with the inevitable challenges that economic growth will bring.
Price Waterhouse Coopers LLP explored this in a report, entitled “The World in
2050: Beyond the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China): a broader look at
the emerging market growth prospects. This interesting analysis uses current
data to examine the 17 largest economies and the 13 emerging economies and
sets projections for 2050.
It supplants the current G7 (US, Japan, Italy, UK, France, Canada, Germany)
with a group of emerging country E7 (which includes China, India, Brazil,
Mexico, Russia, and Turkey) projecting that the emerging economies will
overtake them by 2050 by 50 percent. According to this report, China is seen to

                                      16
surpass the US by 2025, while India is seen to reach this level of growth by
2050. As mentioned in a recent post, China is already moving away from low-
end manufacturing which is going offshore to places like Vietnam, Bangladesh
and the Philippines, which interestingly form part of the top ten next waves of
emerging nations. PWC projects that Vietnam will grow to 70 percent of the
UK economy by 2050.
China surpassed the US last year to become the second largest exporter in the
world behind Germany. PWC projects that by 2050 Brazil’s economy could be
larger than Japan’s, and the Turkish economy be as large as Italy’s economy.
Part of the reason put forward is the opportunity for increased internal
investment and growth in wealth leading to growth in domestic consumption. It
is very wonder that PWC projected world in 2050 in 2007 but couldn’t
estimated about credit crisis and financial crisis that was happened next 6
months after they reported.!!

According to data statics of international sources as IMF, World Bank
Wikipedia arranged special table as follow to the top historical economy power
till 2011 and projection for 2017 .Table (11) shows after second world war US
has been world top spot economy and Soviet Union before collapse was been
second superpower till 1980 .




                                      17
                                         Table (11) Historical ranking 20 top World Economic 1970-2015

 Rank         1970          1975          1980           1985           1990            1995          2000          2005          2010         2015
1       USA            USA            USA            USA            USA            USA           USA           USA           USA           USA
2       Soviet Union   Soviet Union   Japan          Japan          Japan          Japan         Japan         Japan         China         China
3       Germany        Japan          Soviet Union   Soviet Union   Germany        Germany       Germany       Germany       Japan         Japan
4       Japan          Germany        Germany        Germany        France         France        UK            UK            Germany       Germany
5       France         France         France         France         Italy          UK            France        China         France        France
6       UK             UK             UK             UK             UK             Italy         China         France        UK            Brazil
7       Italy          Italy          Italy          Italy          Soviet Union   Brazil        Italy         Italy         Brazil        UK
8       China          Canada         Canada         Canada         Canada         China         Canada        Canada        Italy         Russia
9       Canada         China          China          China          Spain          Spain         Brazil        Spain         India         India
10      India          Brazil         Spain          India          Brazil         Canada        Mexico        Brazil        Canada        Italy
11      Australia      Spain          Mexico         Brazil         China          S. Korea      Spain         Mexico        Russia        Canada
12      Spain          Australia      Brazil         Mexico         Australia      Netherlands   S. Korea      S. Korea      Spain         Australia
13      Mexico         India          India          Australia      India          Australia     India         India         Australia     Spain
14      Brazil         Mexico         Netherlands    Spain          Netherlands    Russia        Australia     Russia        Mexico        S. Korea
15      Sweden         Netherlands    Saudi Arabia   Netherlands    Mexico         India         Netherlands   Australia     S. Korea      Mexico
16      Netherlands    Sweden         Australia      Iran           S. Korea       Switzerland   Taiwan        Netherlands   Netherlands   Indonesia
17      Argentina      Belgium        Sweden         Sweden         Sweden         Mexico        Argentina     Turkey        Turkey        Turkey
18      Poland         Switzerland    Belgium        Saudi Arabia   Switzerland    Belgium       Turkey        Belgium       Indonesia     Netherlands
19      Belgium        Turkey         Argentina      Switzerland    Belgium        Taiwan        Russia        Switzerland   Switzerland   Saudi Arabia
20      Turkey         Argentina      Switzerland    S. Korea       Turkey         Argentina     Switzerland   Sweden        Belgium       Switzerland




                                                                         18
We found GDP contribution of top 20 economies 2011 that shows majority of
GDP related to US and EU and Japan coming from services in compare with
China that come from %46 and also Russia %36.9 from industry!!

            Table (12) Comparison Top 20 Largest GDP contributions 2011
           Country         Services         Industry         Agriculture
  USA                       79.60%           19.20%            1.20%
  China                     43.10%           46.80%             10%
  Japan                     71.60%           27.30%            1.20%
  India                     56.40%           25.40%            17.20%
  Germany                   70.60%           28.60%            0.08%
  UK                        77.80%           21.40%            0.07%
  Russia                    58.60%           36.90%            4.50%
  France                    79.40%           18.80%             1.8%
  Brazil                     67%             27.50%            5.50%
  Italy                     73.40%           24.70%             2%
  Mexico                    62.00%           34.20%            3.80%
  Indonesia                 38.10%           47.20%            14.70%
  Spain                     71.00%           25.80%            3.20%
  Canada                    71.00%           27.10%            1.90%
  Turkey                    62.60%           28.10%            9.30%
  S. Korea                  58.20%           39.20%            2.60%
  Australia                 71.40%           24.60%            4.00%
  S. Africa                 65.90%           31.60%            2.50%
  Taiwan                    66.90%           32.00%            1.30%
    Source: CIA FACTBOOK 2012




                                       19
World Foreign Debt or Asiel ahead of developed countries :
World foreign debt crisis that begin from 1995 is ashiel ahead of developed
country in compare with emerging countries that allows China be main owner
of International market!

                  Table (13)- Comparison total Debt 2011
                                                             Total Foreign
              % government      % Foreign     Foreign Debt       Debt
  Country
              Debt to GDP      Debt to GDP      per head      $Bln-USD

USA                58.5             99           47,568         15,570
EU                  61              85           27,862         13,720
UK                 76.5            360          143,009         8,989
Germany            78.8            142           57,755         4,713
France             83.5            182           74,619         4,696
Japan              225              45           19,148         2,441
Ireland            123            1,165         519,070         2,378
Netherland         64.5            344          226,503         2,344
Italy              118             108           36,841         2,223
Spain              63.4            154           47,069         2,166
Luxembourg         19.2           3,443        3,696,467        1,892
Belgium            98.6            266          113,603         1,241
Swiss              38.2            229          154,063         1,200
Australia          70.4             95           53,596         1,169
Canada              84              64           29,625         1,009
Sweden             40.8            187           91,487          853
Norway             47.7            141          131,220          643
China              43.5             5             396            697
Danish             46.6            180          101,084          559
Greece             144             174           47,636          532
Portugal           83.5            217           46,795          497
Russian            138              33           3,421           480
Finland            45.5            155           68,960          370
S. Korea           20.3             37           7,567           370
Brazil             60.8             15           1,608           310
India              55.9             21            237            267
Turkey             48.1             36           3,794           270
Mexico             41.5             20           1,956           212




                                    20
       Table (14) -Owner of US Government Bond
               Country              2011    2012
China                            28.20%  23%
Japan                            19%     21.40%
Oil Exporter                     5.20%   5.10%
Central Caribbean Banks          3.80%   4.50%
Other Creditors                  43.80%  46.50%
Total foreign Debt -$Bln         4,666   5,048




                        21
   Table (15)- Foreign holdings of U.S. securities, by country and type of security, for the major investing countries
                          into the U.S., as of June 30, 2011-$BlnUSD- Source Treasury 2012
Rank              Country                  Total                Equities          ABC-Long term Debt   Other-Long term Debt    Short term debt

 1     China (Mainland)1                           1,727                    159                  220                   1,343                 5
 2     Japan                                       1,587                    304                  165                   1,052                67
 3     United Kingdom                                982                    442                   53                     471                16
 4     Cayman Islands                                928                    433                  131                     284                80
 5     Luxembourg                                    817                    291                   50                     407                69
 6     Canada                                        560                    416                   10                     121                13
 7     Switzerland                                   488                    227                   24                     222                16
 8     Middle East Oil Exporters2                    446                    214                   13                     137                82
 9     Belgium                                       443                     25                   36                     376                 6
 10    Ireland                                       407                    105                   47                     139               115
 11    Hong Kong                                     292                     44                  101                      82                66
 12    Bermuda                                       275                     62                   49                     136                28
 13    Netherlands                                   260                    165                   22                      67                 5
 14    France                                        249                    141                   16                      78                14
 15    Germany                                       238                     81                   38                     112                 7
 16    Taiwan                                        232                     16                   39                     175                 3
 17    Brazil                                        221                      2                    *                     214                 5
 18    Singapore                                     212                    107                    3                      95                 7
 19    Norway                                        181                    124                   12                      44                 1
 20    Australia                                     161                    106                    5                      44                 7
 21    Russia                                        154                      *                    *                     138                16
 22    Korea, South                                  133                     20                   42                      66                 5
 23    Sweden                                        108                     65                    1                      40                 2
 24    British Virgin Islands                        107                     61                    4                      25                17
 25    Mexico                                         97                     25                    1                      68                 3
 26    Country unknown                               138                      2                    *                    136                  1
 27    Rest of World                               1,074                    270                   59                    520                225
Total                                            12,520                  3,906                 1,141                  6,593                881
1- Excludes Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, which are reported separately.
2- Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates



                                                                           22
World Foreign Exchange Reserve :
It is certainly economic situation of the countries those have more much foreign
exchange reserve is more stable than other countries in financial crisis .Table
(16) explain the china is the most rich country with foreign exchange reserve
that if adding Hong Kong to China reserve the total reserve of China will be
more than $ Bln.USD 3,531 that is more than total foreign exchange of G-7 plus
USA and Japan !!

     Table (16) –Countries with more than $ Bln.USD Foreign Exchange
                               Reserve 2011
        Rank     Country    $Bln.USD   Rank Country $Bln.USD
        1      China            3,240  11     Algeria       186
        2      Japan            1,270  12     Italy         173
        3      Saudi Arabia       592  13     Thailand      172
        4      Russia             514  14     France        171
        5      Taiwan             391  15     Mexico        159
        6      Swiss              383  16     USA           150
        7      Hong Kong          291  17     UK            128
        8      India              286  18     Iran          110
        9      Germany            293  19     Indonesia     106
        10     Singapore          237  20     Poland        101
       Source: Wikipedia

How is the world weight of US, Europe and China
US were the leader of world economy after second world war and Europe has
for a long term lagged behind US and most other countries in grow . We
compare main economic indicator of US, Europe Union and China to find what
will happen in future!




                                       23
           Table (17)- Comparison important Indicator Economic 2011
                  Indicator            USA      China    European Union
   Area- Sq.Km                       9,372,610 9,560,900       2,573,704
   Population-M                            308     1,336             318
   GDP-$Bln-US                          14,094     5,878           14.82
   Average GDP grow 2005-2009             0.01      0.11             0.8
   Energy consumer2009                   2,339     1,955           1,226
   Average inflation Rate 2005-2009        2.2       5.4             1.6
   Inflation rate %-2010                   1.6       3.3             1.9
   Life expectancy                       78.37        74            79.5
   GDP per head-$USD                    47,200     7,500          30,080
    %Unemployment                          9.3       6.5             9.4
   Export ( Goods& Services $Bln-USD    14,660     7,058          17,210
   Balance Account -$ Bln-USD            (836)       286              57
   current account Balance-$Bln-USD      (706)       426            (65)
   Overall Balance$ Bln-USD                 52       419              19
   Health Spending to GDP%                16.2       4.6            10.7
   No. Household M                       118.5       389             131
   Education Spending to GDP%              5.5       2.1             4.9
   Computer per 100 population              83        25              66
   By: Dayarayan;Source: Pocket World in Figures 2012 & CIA Fact Book 2012




Why the US Will Still is the Only Superpower in 2030 ?!
A point that many bring up is that empires have always risen and fallen
throughout history. This is partly true, but note that the Roman Empire lasted
for over 1000 years after its peak. Also note that the British Empire never
actually collapsed since Britain is still one of the top seven countries in the
world today, and the English language is the most widely spoken in the world.
Britain was merely surpassed by its descendant, with whom it shares a
symbiotic relationship. The US can expect the same if it is finally surpassed, at
some point much later than 2030 and probably not before the Technological
Singularity, which would make the debate moot.
That writing this article is even worthwhile is a tribute to how far China has
come and how much it might achieve, but nonetheless, there is no other country
that will be a superpower on par with the US by 2030. This is one of the safest
predictions The Futurist can make.
(Source: ttp://futurist.typepad.com/my_weblog/2006/05/why_the_us_will.html)
We think all economists and projection forget a very important case to their
projection .It is merging and united two Korean that we believe before 2020 it
will be certainly and this matter will take over Korea economic to be member of
top 10 largest economy .It will be certainly.

                                          24
 Golden man Sache Bank as one of the most famous financial entity has
 projected world in future that you can see their projection in below table.

             Table(18)- Nominal Gross Domestic Product 2015-2050
                             (In 2006 US$ millions)
Rank     Country     2015   2020   2025   2030    2035   2040  2045                    2050
  1    USA          16,194 17,978 20,087 22,817 26,097 29,823 33,904                  38,514
  2    China         8,133 12,630 18,437 25,610 34,348 45,022 57,310                  70,710
  3    Japan         4,861  5,224   5,570 5,814    5,886 6,042 6,300                   6,677
  4    Germany       3,326  3,519   3,631 3,761    4,048 4,388 4,714                   5,024
  5    UK            2,835  3,101   3,333 3,595    3,937 4,344 4,744                   5,133
  6    France        2,577  2,815   3,055 3,306    3,567 3,892 4,227                   4,592
  7    Italy         2,072  2,224   2,326 2,391    2,444 2,559 2,737                   2,950
  8    Canada        1,950  2,190   2,376 2,589    2,700 2,910 3,150                   3,375
  9    Russia        1,900  2,554   3,341 4,265    5,265 6,320 7,420                   8,580
 10    India         1,900  2,848   4,316 6,885 11,514 16,510 25,278                  37,668
 11    Brazil        1,720  2,194   2,831 3,720    4,963 6,631 8,740                  11,366
 12    Mexico        1,327  1,742   2,303 3,068    4,102 5,471 7,204                   9,340
 13    S. Korea      1,305  1,508   1,861 2,241    2,644 3,089 3,562                   4,083
 14    Turkey        1,150  1,350   1,665 2,150    2,550 3,075 3,650                   4,200
 15    Indonesia       562    752   1,033 1,479    2,192 3,286 4,846                   7,010
 16    Iran            415    544     716   953    1,273 1,673 2,133                   2,663
 17    Nigeria         218    306     445   680    1,083 1,765 2,870                   4,640
 18    Philippines     215    289     400   582      882 1,353 2,040                   3,010
 19    Pakistan        206    268     359   497      709 1,026 1,472                   2,085
 20    Egypt           171    229     318   467      718 1,124 1,728                   2,602
 21    Vietnam         157    273     458   745    1,169 1,750 2,500                   3,375
 22    Bangladesh      110    150     210   304      451   676 1,001                   1,466
 Source: Above table estimated have been made in the year 2006 by the Goldman Sachs Bank.




                                             25
Gross Demotic Product By Nominal scale or by PPP ?
As our previous explanation that GDP by PPP is not a reasonable index to
compare world economy so we arrange table (19) to find and compare GDP by
nominal ( Real power) and PPP ( Parity Power).According to this table the only
country that is real competitor with US is China and India, Brazil and Russian
can’t be real player in world economic at present !

              Table (19)- Comparison GDP based on Official and PPP
Country      1990       1995       2000       2005       2010       2012       2015      2017
GDP         Nominal    Nominal    Nominal    Nominal    Nominal    Nominal    Nominal   Nominal
GDP          PPP        PPP        PPP        PPP        PPP        PPP        PPP       PPP
              5,800      7,414      9,951     12,623     14,526     15,609     17,783    19,704
USA
              5,800      7,414      9,951     12,623     14,526     15,609     17,783    19,704
                 390        728      1198       2257       5930       7991      10581     12713
China
                 910      1832       3014       5364      10128      12387      16670     20336
                 323        365        476        809      1597       1779       2384      2906
India
                 744      1073       1572       2431       4070       4825       6276      7574
               3104       5334       4731       4571       5488       5981       6372      6695
Japan
               2370       2872       3255       3890       4380       4589       5024      5324
               1547       2535       1892       2771       3286       3479       3741      3893
Germany
               1447       1799       2144       2492       3944       3158       3440      3655
               1247       1571       1232       2138       2563       2712       2984      3198
France
               1031       1233       1534       1860       2135       2257       2476      2668
               1018       1157       1480       2283       2263       2453       2850      3167
UK
                 933      1143       1487       1933       2199       2308       2594      2838
                  76        313        259        763      1487       2022       2658      3105
Russia
                 913        952      1121       1697       2237       2511       2950      3295
               1142       1133       1107       1789       2060       2067       2158      2248
Italy
                 976      1175       1404       1642       1800       1835       1944      2062
                 582        590        725      1134       1577       1805       2001      2141
Canada
                 542        667        889      1132       1334       1443       1618      1753
                 465        770        644        882      2143       2450       2872      3268
Brazil
                 786      1028       1234       1585       2187       2394       2826      3171
                 288        335        672        848      1035       1207       1416      1567
Mexico
                 612        752      1065       1297       1565       1743       2028      2242
                 270        531        533        845      1015       1163       1430      1645
Korea
                 336        554        775      1097       1468       1630       1918      2148
                 114        202        165        286        708        928      1394      1812
Indonesia
                 277        447        501        705      1035       1208       1542      1829
                 521        597        582      1132       1395       1397       1501      1590
Spain
                 551        667        900      1184       1374       1405       1514      1626
                 202        227        266        482        735        817      1044      1258
Turkey
                 291       385        513        747        969       1112       1303      1477
                  85        91         96        203        419        496        582       668
Iran
                 247       330        438        685        951       1006       1106      1192
                7049      9188       8504      13773      16259      17070      18782     20095
EU
                6707      8388      10539      13078      15248      16025      17652     19065
     By: Dayarayan;-Source- World Economic Outlook April 2012



                                               26
Top Largest Nominal Economy in 2011
Table (20) shows which economy were largest in 2011 by different data statics
as IMF and World Bank.

                 Table (20)- Top 20 Largest Nominal GDP 2011
              Country        IMF      World Bank   CIA Fact Book
         World                 69,659       63,123          70,160
         European Union        17,577       16,122          17,720
         USA                   15,094       14,586          15,060
         China                  7,298        5,926           6,989
         Japan                  5,869        5,458           5,855
         Germany                3,577        3,280           3,629
         France                 2,776        2,560           2,808
         Brazil                 2,492        2,087           2,518
         UK                     2,417        2,261           2,481
         Italy                  2,198        2,060           2,246
         Russia                 1,850        1,480           1,791
         Canada                 1,736        1,577           1,759
         India                  1,676        1,727           1,843
         Spain                  1,493        1,407           1,537
         Australia              1,488        1,131           1,507
         Mexico                 1,154        1,035           1,185
         Korea                  1,116        1,014           1,164
         Indonesia                845          706             834
         Netherland               840          779             858
         Turkey                   778          734             763
         Swiss                    636          527             666
         Saudi                    577          434             560




                                      27
                                        Table (21)- Top Largest Economy 1980-2015
       Year            1st      2nd         3rd            4th          5th         6th       7th       8th        9th      10th
                      USA      China       India         Japan       Germany      Russia    Brazil      UK       France    Mexico
2015 (IMF Forecast)
                      17,784   16,670           6,276        5,024        3,440     2,950     2,826      2,594     2,476      2,029
                      USA      China       Japan          India      Germany      Russia      UK      Brazil     France     Italy
2010
                      14,527   10,128           4,380        4,070        2,944     2,237     2,199      2,187     2,135      1,801
                      USA      China       Japan        Germany        India        UK      France    Russia      Italy    Brazil
2005
                      12,609    5,364           3,873        2,549        2,476     1,952     1,869      1,697     1,642      1,584
                      USA      Japan       China        Germany        India      France      UK       Italy     Brazil    Russia
2000
                      10,011    3,252           2,981        2,137        1,579     1,546     1,524      1,422     1,211      1,047
                      USA      Japan       China        Germany       France        UK       Italy    India      Brazil    Russia
1995
                       7,376    2,835           1,812        1,810        1,216     1,175     1,156      1,086     1,015        888
                      USA      Japan     Germany         Russia       France       Italy      UK      China      Brazil    India
1990
                       5,753    2,340           1,455        1,183        1,018       977       939        908       768        751
                      USA      Japan    W. Germany       France        Italy        UK      Brazil    China       India    Mexico
1985
                       4,193    1,561           1,050          737          717       680       585        530       482        419
                      USA      Japan    W. Germany       France        Italy        UK      Brazil    Mexico      India    Spain
1980
                       2,772      980             763          531          514       475       424        297       291        272




                                                              28
                           Table (22)- Largest Economy Projection by IMF 2010-2030
    Rank    Country    2010-$1000Bln      Rank        Country        2020-$1000Bln   Rank    Country    2030-$1000Bln
      1    USA              14.6            1    China                    24.6        1     China            73.5
      2    China             5.9            2    USA                      23.3        2     USA              38.2
      3    Japan             3.6            3    India                     9.6        3     India            30.3
      4    Germany           3.3            4    Japan                      6         4     Brazil           12.2
      5    France            2.6            5    Brazil                    5.1        5     Indonesia        9.3
      6    UK                2.3            6    Germany                    5         6     Japan            8.4
      7    Italy             2.4            7    France                    3.9        7     Germany          8.2
      8    Brazil             2             8    Russia                    3.5        8     Mexico           6.6
      9    Canada            1.6            9    UK                        3.4        9     France           6.4
     10    Russia            1.5           10    Indonesia                 3.2        10    UK               5.6
Source: IMF Standard chartered Research




                                                                29
Which Countries spent more on Health Expenditures to GDP
One of the other indicator has forgoten to economics report is Health
Expenditures to GDP that shows which countries repect to manpower more and
in spite that manpower( Human resource) is the most important resources in
world economic competitore so we will find it is a long distance between
emerging economic and developed ceonomic and health care related to
countries those capital per head is bigger than others, expend health care more
than others.

            Table (23) -Health Care indicators at Top 18 Economy2011
                                                                                PCTE-
                                                              PCTE (*)-$Bln-
                     Country                         %GDP                       PPP(**)
                                                                  USD
                                                                               $Bln-USD
   USA                                                16.2           7,410       7,410
   France                                             11.7           3,934       4,798
   Germany                                            11.4           4,129       4,629
   Canada                                             10.5           4,198       4,380
   Spain                                               9.7           3,152       3,076
   Italy                                               9.5           3,027       3,328
   Argentina                                           9.5           1,387       1,424
   UK                                                  9.4           3,285       3,395
   Brazil                                               9             943         743
   Australia                                           8.5           3,382       2,711
   South Africa                                        8.5            862         485
   Japan                                               8.3           2,713       3,321
   Turkey                                              6.7            965         571
   S. Korea                                            8.5            862         485
   Mexico                                              6.5            862         525
   Russia                                              5.4           1,038        475
   China                                               4.6            308         169
   India                                               4.2            132         45
   Indonesia                                           24              99         55
* Per Capital total expenditures on health average exchange rate ($US)
** Per Capital total expenditures on health at Purchase Power Parity(PPP)




                                                30
                 Table(24)- Top Languages by percentage OG GWP
                                            GDP                          Cumulative
         Rank        Language                              % of GWP
                                      (in $US Billions)                  % of GWP
           1    English                         $21,276         34.90%       34.90%
           2    Japanese                         $4,911          8.10%       43.00%

           3    Simplified Chinese               $4,509          7.40%       50.40%
           4    German                           $4,393          7.20%       57.60%
           5    Spanish                          $4,170          6.80%       64.50%
           6    French                           $3,951          6.50%       71.00%
           7    Italian                          $2,481          4.10%       75.00%
           8    Russian                          $2,245          3.70%       78.70%
           9    Portuguese                       $1,915          3.10%       81.90%
          10    Arabic                           $1,903          3.10%       85.00%
          11    Dutch                            $1,386          2.30%       87.30%
          12    Korean                              $929         1.50%       88.80%
          13    Turkish                             $730         1.20%       90.00%
          14    Traditional Chinese                 $607         1.00%       91.00%
          15    Polish                              $528         0.90%       91.80%
       Source: www.globalization-group.com/edge/2010/03/top-languages-by-gdp

Democrassy Ranking
According to report publishing bu world audit organization the democrassy
ranking includes democrassy, press freedom and corruption grow up in 2011
and unfortunitly some of top world economy are in the top rank of corrupt.Table
(25) shows their situation ranking
               Table (25) World Top economy democrassy ranking 2011
    Country         Democracy     Press Freedom Corruption      Total
 US                      13              10         18           13
 China                  121             139         56           121
 Japan                   29              19         11           29
 India                   49              46         75           49
 Germany                 10              10         11           10
 France                  16              24         19           16
 Italy                   35              44         51           35
 UK                      13              16         13           13
 Brazil                  50              56         54           50
 Russia                 133             129        113           133
 Canada                  8               16         10            8
 Spain                   21              24         23           21
 Mexico                  69              99         77           69
 S. Korea                33              40         31           33
 Turkey                  55              75         44           55
 Indonesia               64              71         77           64
Source: world audit organization


                                               31
According to above research and explanation and all tables ,we propose for
projection that who will be top Largest economy and compare world economy
should comply several different indicators as GDP nominal, education level,
annual innovation & patients, Military power, Area, Population, access to water
clean, natural resources that we arrange in below table.




                                      32
                                 Table (26)- Score for Elements & factors to be super power
           Total    Population     Health care  Education   Area    Military Water access   Natural resources
           1000        200             100          100      100       150        100             250

We, with attention table number (26) and comply necessary factors for super power ,project that the only countries to have
capacity, ability, infrastructure to be economy super power are USA, China and Russia and other emerging or developed
countries can’t not to be super power inspite that they are large economy !!Table (27) shows Top 15 Military Power in 2012

                                          Table (27) - Top 15 Military Power 2012
                                              Rank             Country
                                              1       USA
                                              2       Russia
                                              3       China
                                              4       India
                                              5       UK
                                              6       Turkey
                                              7       S. Korae
                                              8       France
                                              9       Japan
                                              10      Israel
                                              11      Brazil
                                              12      Iran
                                              13      Germany
                                              14      Taiwan
                                              15      Pakistan
                                             Source: www.globalfirepower.com




                                                              33
Knowledge Economy Index (KEI) 2012 Rankings
The World Bank’s Knowledge Assessment Methodology (KAM:www.worldbank.org/kam) is
an online interactive tool that produces the Knowledge Economy Index (KEI)–
an aggregate index representing a country’s or region’s overall preparedness to
compete in the Knowledge Economy (KE). The KEI is based on a simple
average of four sub-indexes, which represent the four pillars of the knowledge
economy:
      Economic Incentive and Institutional Regime (EIR)
      Innovation and Technological Adoption
      Education and Training
      Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) Infrastructure

The EIR comprises incentives that promote the efficient use of existing and new
knowledge and the flourishing of entrepreneurship. An efficient innovation
system made up of firms, research centers, universities, think tanks, consultants,
and other organizations can tap into the growing stock of global knowledge,
adapt it to local needs, and create new technological solutions. An educated and
appropriately trained population is capable of creating, sharing, and using
knowledge. A modern and accessible ICT infrastructure serves to facilitate the
effective communication, dissemination, and processing of information. This
index shows which countries( 145 countries survey) are high teck and
knowledge base and we understand it is very different between developed
countries specially European countries in compare with emerging economy
(except South Korea) .

     Table (28 )-Top Largest economy in knowledge economy index 2012
                                                     Knowledge Economy
        Country                Rank
                                                           index
        Canada                    7                         8.92
        Germany                   8                          8.9
        USA                      12                         8.77
        UK                       14                         8.76
        Spain                    21                         8.35
        Japan                    22                         8.28
        France                   24                         8.21
        S. Korea                 29                         7.97
        Italy                    30                         7.89
        Russian                  55                         5.78
        Brazil                   60                         5.58
        Turkey                   69                         5.16
        Mexico                   72                         5.07
        Indonesia               108                         3.11
        India                   110                         3.06
        Source: World bank

                                       34
In the other hand according to brandirectory.com annual report 2012 ,top 16
brands as all World Top 20 Brands are belongs to US, and other remind are
belong to UK( 2 brand ) ,Japan (2 Brand) ,South Korea ( one brand ) and
Netherland (one Brand) and emerging economy and other all countries has not
any world or global brand in first 20 ranks.

      Table (29) – Global Top 20 Brands Rank & Brand Value 2011-2012
                                                $ M-USD         $M-USD
   2012   2011       Name            Country
                                                 2012             2011
     1      8    Apple             US            70605            29543
     2      1    Google            US            47463            44294
     3      2    Microsoft         US            45812            42805
     4      4    IBM               US            39135            36157
     5      3    Wal-Mart          US            38320           362203
     6      18   Samsung           Korea         38197            21511
     7      7    GE                US            33214            30504
     8      16   Coca-Cola         US            31082            25807
     9      5    Vodafone          UK            30044            30674
     10     32   Amazon.com        US            28665            17780
     11     10   AT&T              US            28379            28884
     12     12   Verizon           US            27616            27293
     13     11   HSBC              UK            27597            27632
     14     13   NTT Group         Japan         26324            26927
     15     14   Toyota            Japan         24461            26152
     16     9    Wells Fargo       US            23229            28944
     17     6    Bank of America   US            22910            30619
     18     17   McDonald's        US            22230            21842
     19     30   Shell             Netherland    22021            18605
     20     27   Intel             US            21908            19708



World Economic Trends 2011-2060
According to all elements and factors be effected to economy we projected table
(30) for trends to 2060.




                                          35
            Table (30) – Top 15 Largest Economy $Bln.USD 2015-2060 –Projection by Dayarayan
Rank   Country      2060      2055    2050      2045  2040   2035   2030      2025  2020   2015     2011 Ave. Grow Rate
  1    China       88,068   77,840   65,540   53,354 43,853 36,044 29,626   23,774 18,628 14,253   11,290           6-8%
  2    USA         59,325   55,069   48,437   40,783 35,180 30,943 26,692   22,749 19,434 16,928   15,040       2.5-3.5%
  3    India       45,245   40,780   34,170   27,422 22,005 16,917 13,575   10,637 8,108 5,781      4,463           6-8%
  4    Brazil      20,864   16,348   12,871   10,182 8,132 6,526 5,114       4,065 3,247 2,669      2282            4-5%
  5    Russian     15,033   12,064    9,681    7,957 7,360 6,050 4,973       4,088 3,360 2,763      2,380       3.8-4.5%
  6    Germany     12,624   10,890    9,348    8,025 6,923 5,972 5,388       4,928 4,508 3,214      3,085       1.3-2.1%
  7    Japan       11,287   10,223    9,260    8,823 8,387 7,597 7,019       6,389 5,873 4,570      4,389         1.2-2%
  8    Mexico      11,203    8,990    7,248    5,901 4,827 3,968 3,277       2,720 2,268 1,901      1,657       3.5-4.5%
  9    S. Korea    10,742    8,620    6,951    5,632 4,585 3,751 3,083       2,559 2,134 1,797      1,549       3.5-4.5%
 10    Indonesia    9567     8,873    6,953    5,448 4,269 3,361 2,646       2,103 1,672 1,336      1,121         4.5-5%
 11    Turkey       7,512    6,028    4,861    3,920 3,176 2,586 2,116       1,740 1,430 1,176      1,025       3.5-4.5%
 12    France       5,800    5,127    4,554    4,065 3,646 3,287 2,978       2,711 2,480 2,303      2,214         1-2.5%
 13    UK           5,334    4,761    4,271    3,839 3,461 3,135 2,868       2,650 2,484 2,341      2,250         1-2.3%
 14    Italy        3,757    3,387    3,083    2,847 2,643 2,430 2,266       2,125 2,002 1,895      1,822         1-2.1%
 15    Canada       3,756    3,386    3,052    2,751 2,480 2,235 2,025       1,821 1,650 1,497      1,389       1.9-2.1%




                                                              36
    Table (31)-Top New Economic Zones projection $ Bln.US -By Dayarayan
     Year               BRIC                         NAFTA                   European Union             G-7
                                                                                                      22,650
     2010               11,157                         17,138                    16,259
                                                                                                       32,753
     2015               25,736                         20,326                    18,782
                                                                                                       38,431
     2020               33,343                         23,352                    21,387
                                                                                                       49,236
     2030               53,288                         31,994                    26,455
                                                                                                       62,720
     2040               81,350                         42,497                    33,210
                                                                                                       92,843
     2050               122,262                        58,737                    41,484
                                                                                      101,884
     2060          169,120                     102,747               51,570
    BRIC = Brazil/Russia/India/China and NAFTA -NAFTA=USA/Canada/Mexico
    G-7= USA,UK,France, Germany, Italy, Canada ,Japan
    We arranged special comparison table from world forecaster about world economy 2050 as table
    (28) to can compare correctly all top 10 largest GDP


             Table (32) – Comparison different forecasted world Economy in 2050
Forecaster      1st       2nd      3rd       4th          5th        6th         7th        8th         9th          10th
 Goldman      China      USA      India     Japan        Brazil     Russia       UK       Germany      France        Italy
Sachs 2006     44,453    35,165   27,803       6,673       6,074      5,870      3,782       3,603        3,147        2,061
 Goldman      China      USA      India     Brazil       Mexico     Russia       UK       Germany      France      S. Korea
Sachs 2011     70,717    38,521   37,667      11,366       9,340      8,580      5,133       5,024        4,592        4,083
              China      USA      India     Japan         UK       Germany      Brazil    Mexico       France        Italy
  HSBC
               24,617    22,270    8,165       6,429       3,576      3,714      2,960       2,810        2,750        2,194
              China      USA      India     Brazil       Japan      Russia     Mexico     Germany       UK         Indonesia
  PWC
               51,180    37,876   31,313       9,235       7,664      6,112      5,800       5,707        5,628        5,358
CitiGroup     China      India    USA      Indonesia     Nigeria    Brazil     Russia      Japan     Philippines     UK
   2011       205,321   180,049   83,805      45,910      42,437     33,199     19,697      16,394       14,738       13,846
              China      USA      India     Japan        Brazil    Mexico        UK       Germany      France       Turkey
Carnegie
               46,265    38,646   15,384       6,216       6,020      5,709      4,997       4,537        4,528        3,536
 Wealth       India      China    USA      Indonesia     Brazil    Nigeria     Russia     Mexico       Japan        Egypt
 Report        85,970    80,020   39,070      13,930      11,580      9,510      7,770       6,570        6,480        6,020
              China      USA      India     Brazil       Russia    Germany      Japan     Mexico     Indonesia     S. Korea
Dayarayan
               65,540    48,437   34,170      12,871       9,681      9,348      9,260       7,248        6,953        6,951




                                                             37
Global changing ?
According to our research and attention table (33) the future global changing are
as below table .
                   Table (33) –Future Global Economy Changing
 Year         GDP Ranking ( Base PPP) Estimated Changing in World Economic
 2011   China the second world economic power
 2011   Indonesia take over Turkey
 2012   India take over Japan and become be the third world Economy
 2012   Brazil take over UK
 2015   Brazil will take over France
 2020   S. Korea will take over France, Uk, Italy
 2025   China will take over US and will be top super power
 2025   Mexico will take over France, UK
 2025   France Will Take Over UK
 2030   Turkey will take over Canada
 2030   Brazil will take over Russia
 2030   S. Korae will take over Indonesia
 2030   Indonesia will take over Canada ,Italy
 2035   Indonesia will take over France, UK
 2035   Russia will take over Germany
 2035   Brazil will take over Germany
 2050   Germany will take over Japan




                                       38
Conclusion and finding:
1-The world GDP from $Bln.371 (1700), $Bln.5,331 (1950) ,$Bln.16,022(1973) and $ Bln.
70177 (2011) will be jump to 350,000 in 2060
2- China economy will be eight times more than 2011in 2060 and also India economy size in
2060 will grow seven times more than 2011.
2- Bric Group ( Brazil, Russia, India, China) will be largest economic group from $
Bln.11,157 (2011) to $Bln.169,120
3-The largest GDP $Bln.15,040 ( USA) in 2011 will jump to $ Bln. 88,066 (China) in 2060
4- The largest GDP per capital was $ USD 9,757 (USA) in 1954 and will jump to $ 125,000
(USA) with 450,000000 population in 2060.
5-Larest world output will be related to emerging economy and new economy graphic BRIC,
BRICSAM (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Mexico), SICJ( S. Korea,
Indonesia, China, Japan)
6- GDP BRIC group will grow from $ Bln.11,157 (2010) to $ Bln.33,347 (2020),
$Bln.53,2888 (2030), $Bln.122,262 (2050) and $ Bln.169,210 (2060) that will be 2.4 times
more than world GDP in 2011.
7-GDP SICJ Group (S. Korea, Indonesia, China, Japan ) will increase to $ Bln.26,603(2020)
,$Bln. 42,374 (2030),$Bln. 88,704(2050) and $ Bln. 119,664 (2060) that will be 70.7% total
GDP for BRIC in 2060.
8-United Korea will be one of the main economy players after 2020 and it will be ninth top
rank in 2060.
9-Russia economy has huge potentially but should be solve their political problem to convert
from oligarchy economy to free economy with transparency to be top fifth rank in 2060.
10- Undeveloped countries same Nigeria, Vietnam, Philipina, Iran and Egypt will be changed
and moved to second 10 largest world economy.
11- Small European countries will be loses their size and rank fret 2017.
12- Demographic population and old age will be serious problem for European Countries and
also Japan that it effect to their world rank after 2017.
13- We predict between 2025 to 2030 there will be a major overhaul of economic output and
world GDP that some large top economy, small European Countries and poor countries will
be the big losers.
14- Germany will be top European economy (G7) and also will takeover Japan in 2050 and
even sooner because Japan debt is top debt in the world
15- Despite that emerging economy will jump more than developed economy but know
economy index in emerging economy are more poor in compare with G7 and G20 and 70%
of top 20 global brand with more than brand value as # Bln.USD 460 are belong to USA.




                                            39
Sources:
1- www.econjobrumors.com/topic/the-power-of-soviet-totalitarianism
2- www.knoema.com
3- www.rediff.com
4- Report World 2050 by HSBC
5- ReportWorld 2030-2050 by Glodman Sach
6- Wikipedia
7-Article Fall free market and rise of Controled market –By: Gholamhossein Davani –
Published in lemound Diplomatic farsi version and World Economic newspaper in Persian
2011
8- Report World in 2050 By PriceWaterHouse publication
9- Global terend 2030 – Alternative Worlds published by Sweden Embasy
10- Mapping in Global Future - Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project
11- 2011 Annual report of World Health Organization
12-Report China 2030 By World Bank
13- CIA FACTBOOK Haard copy 2012
14- Pocket World in Figuers 2011 & 2012
15- Wealth Report 2012
16- Goldman Sachs study of BRIC and N11 nations, November 23, 2007.




                                            40

								
To top