120816_file_survey_haberman

							G ARIN H ART Y ANG                                                  1 7 2 4 C o n ne ct i c u t A ve n ue , N .W .
                                                                                 W a s h i ng t on , D C 2 00 0 9
                                                                                     T e l : ( 2 02 ) 2 34 - 55 7 0
RESEARCH GROUP                                                                      F a x : ( 2 02 ) 23 2 - 8 1 34
                                                                                 w w w .h ar tr e se a r ch . c om



 MEMORANDUM
 TO:      The DSCC
 FROM: Geoff Garin, Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
 DATE: August 17, 2012
 RE:      Shelly Berkley Holds A Slight Lead In Nevada Senate Race



Our newly completed survey in Nevada, conducted by telephone August 13
to 15 among a representative statewide sample of 613 likely voters, shows
that Shelly Berkley holds a slight lead over Dean Heller in the Senate race.
Moreover, voters in Nevada say by a wide margin that they are more
concerned about criticisms of Heller’s record on Medicare than about
criticisms of Berkley’s record on ethics.

The trial heat results are as follows:

                                                                          %
                 Shelly Berkley......................................... 41
                 Lean toward Shelly Berkley....................... 3
                 Dean Heller ............................................ 41
                 Lean toward Dean Heller .......................... 1
                 Neither/other.......................................... 4
                 Undecided .............................................. 10

Berkley benefits from large leads among Hispanic voters, and from significant
advantages among women and voters under age 35.

Both candidates have seen an increase in their negative ratings since our
previous survey in May, but Senator Heller’s negatives have grown more
sharply than Congresswoman Berkley’s. Currently, 32% express positive
feelings about Berkley and 35% say they feel negative toward her, while
17% are neutral and 16% are not sure. Compared with May, these results
represent a three-percentage-point increase in positive ratings and a five-
point increase in negative ratings. By contrast, Dean Heller’s positive ratings
dropped by four points to 31%, while his negative ratings have increased
nine points to 32%.

Given the focus on ethics in the Nevada Senate race, it is noteworthy that
the two candidates essentially are at parity when voters compare them on
being honest and ethical. Among all voters, 33% say Heller is better on this
dimension, 30% say Berkley is better, 7% say both are good, 12% say



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G ARIN H ART Y ANG RESEARCH GROUP
neither is good, and 18% are not sure.                 These results are similar to those
from our May survey.

While the candidates are roughly tied on ethics, Shelly Berkley has a large
advantage over Dean Heller on other important dimensions. By 40% to
29%, voters say she is the better choice when it comes to caring about the
needs of average Nevadans. On the crucial issue of Medicare, which the
Berkley campaign has brought to the fore in this race, Congresswoman
Berkley is seen as the better candidate by a wide 45% to 23%.

Shelly Berkley’s lead on Medicare is especially significant because of its
importance to the electorate, both in absolute terms and relative to the
attacks against Congresswoman Berkley on ethics issues.            Indeed, our
survey findings show that many more voters are concerned by criticisms of
Heller’s record on Medicare than by criticisms of Berkley’s record on ethics:

      When it comes to deciding how to vote, which is a bigger concern for
      you?

      (A) Shelly Berkley's ethics and the criticism that she has been
      involved in conflicts of interest by advocating projects that benefited
      her husband's business, OR

      (B) Dean Heller's record on Medicare and the criticism that he voted
      twice to gut Medicare and force seniors to pay six thousand dollars
      more, while giving more tax breaks to millionaires.

                                                                                %
           A/More concerned by Berkley's ethics .................               29
           B/More concerned by Heller's record on Medicare ..                   49
            Both equal (VOL) ...........................................         7
            Neither (VOL) .................................................      9
            Not sure ........................................................    6


Voters age 65 and older say by 51% to 28% that Heller’s record on Medicare
will be a bigger concern to them in deciding how to vote.

The sample on which these results are based is 42% Democratic and 38%
Republican by party registration. The Secretary of State’s office reports that
among all active voters in Nevada, 41% are registered as Democrats and
37% are registered as Republicans. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by
49% to 44% in the trial heat for president, a fact that undoubtedly is helpful
to Congresswoman Berkley in this race.




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